Who's your pick?

[colbyjack]

If you have been reading long enough, you will know that I still think Casey Kotchman should have been the team's first-round pick in 2001. Sure, we all still like reading Mike Jones' name in the link report and dream about how he could once become an actual contributor at the MLB level, but let's face it, I was right. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Kotchman of course hasn't been all he was cracked up to be either, and neither was Scott Moore, the player I campaigned for in '02 (although I did come around to Prince Fielder once I saw him put on an absolutely crazy power display as part of the pre-draft workout at Miller Park). Since we're less than a month away from draft day, I thought I'd share the players I was rooting for on draft day since the year 2000, which was the first year I went on record (on the ESPN forums) with my personal preference.

 

2000: Rocco Baldelli's late spring surge had me hooked (and reports years later confirmed that the Brewers were too), but the Rays took him in the top 10 (7th overall I think without looking). Aaron Heilman was my backup favorite, who actually was drafted but didn't sign with the Twins, and went a year later to the Mets. Xavier Nady I think was everyone's favorite player in this draft, and I admit I was a little bummed to see him available (I think twice) to the Brewers but not taken.

 

2001: The year of Kotchman. I also was a big fan of Jeremy Sowers coming out of high school, but recognized that it was unlikely that anyone would be able to sign him since he made it clear he was going to Vanderbilt (I was happy the Reds didn't listen). This was also the year that I had conversations with my now co-worker at Perfect Game, Anup Sinha, when he was still was Team One Baseball about J.J. Hardy and the possibility that he could be the Brewers' first-round pick. That was one of the most rewarding picks the team has taken from day one for me.

 

2002: The year of Scott Moore. I was very anti-Fielder when reports surfaced that the Brewers were very interested in him, but I changed my tune pretty quickly when I saw him launch tape-measure shots, including one off of a Khalid Ballouli fastball (sorry Brian) during the team's pre-draft camp. Jeff Francoeur was also a fave of mine in this draft, but at the time I recognized the team would not take him given his two-sport (and therefore $$$) aspirations.

 

2003: With the second overall pick, I think 99% of the people that followed the draft realized the team couldn't go wrong with either Delmon Young or Rickie Weeks. Neither has lived up to their billing, but both have been productive big-leaguers.

 

2004: Similar to '02 with Fielder, I wasn't too happy about the team's interest in Mark Rogers. Homer Bailey was high on my list, as were Jeremy Sowers and Chris Nelson (Thomas Diamond was another favorite among Brewers fans). Sowers seemed to have plateaued as a 4A player, and Nelson has scuffled in the mid-levels of the minors. Bailey would have been a nice option right about now. 2004 was a very satisfying year for me in that Yovani Gallardo, one of my personal faves that year and a player I had pegged as the 10th player to go overall to the Rangers in my pre-draft mock draft, lasted until the team's 2nd round pick. Had Gallardo not been there the choice likely would have been Sturgeon Bay native Erik Cordier, who of course has had some arm problems since being drafted.

 

2005: I was completely comfortable with the Brewers taking any of the three players they were most often linked to: Cameron Maybin, Ryan Braun and Jay Bruce. Braun was the right choice. Alex Gordon entered the year as the one player everyone hoped would fall to the team, and Ryan Zimmerman ended the year as the player a lot of people hoped would somehow fall one more spot. Even then, Braun was the right choice.

 

2006: I was happy to hear that the Brewers were all over Travis Snider, but he was unlikely to fall to the team's pick (and didn't). David Huff was my second favorite prospect for the team's first-round pick (the 16th overall selection), but he went after the first round to the Indians, and is now one of the better LHP prospects in the game. Jeffress has been an interesting ride, and I had the chance to see both he and Brewer the summer before at the 2005 Aflac game where they wowed with tools, but showed the need for a lot more polish.

 

2007: Sources had me convinced Phillippe Aumont would be the pick. Matt LaPorta floored everyone, and thank you Matt for bringing us CC Sabathia. Prior to the draft my faves were Jason Heyward (probably the favorite for 75% of Brewers draft fans) and Beau Mills. This year was fun in that I got to see three of the top eight overall picks first-hand during the spring leading up to the draft: David Price, Ross Detwiler and Casey Weathers.

 

2008: I think all Brewers fans were keeping their fingers crossed that Lawrie would indeed fall. Last year was satisfying in that I predicted both of the team's top two picks, Lawire and Odorizzi, in an online mock draft I participated in that included Keith Law and other notable online draftniks.

 

So, who are my guys for this year...?

 

Drafting so late in the first round is really, really difficult to guess. I have a list of 20-30 guys that could all be in the mix, and trying to figure out who the Brewers may take, especially since they have a new scouting director, not that the old one was easy to figure out, is pretty much a waste of time (which hasn't stopped me before). Here is my short list:

 

Chad James, LHP: Oklahoma St. signee that has similar size, but better repertoire and command, than Andrew Oliver. Mostly 88-91 with good CB/CH.

Alex Wilson, RHP: Texas A&M fireballer has been pitching out of the bullpen in recent weeks to help baby his arm (TJ surgery less than 2 years ago).

Keyvious Sampson, RHP: Florida prep RHP is a great all-around athlete that also stars as a hitter. Follows Mike Jones/Mark Rogers mold, but has great natural movement on fastball and has been impressing scouts this spring with improved command.

Everett Williams, OF: Great all-around prep athlete with legitimate 5 tools. Left-handed bat with some pop and speed could make him the best leadoff/CF prospect the Brewers have had since Krynzel...or Brantley.

Kyle Heckathorn, RHP: Another college righty (Kennesaw State) with a big body and big stuff, but needs to hone command.

 

Prep pitchers don't bother me as much the later you make your pick. James is the guy I really like, Wilson is the guy I think the Brewers might really like. I'm also a big fan of Brian Goodwin, a prep CF from NC that has signed to play for UNC. UNC has a knack for getting these guys on campus though.

 

One more note: My PG associate David Rawnsley posted his own first-round mock draft earlier today, with the Brewers taking A.J. Pollock, a player I have shared interest in before. While I would be happy with such a pick, it would also surprise me a little since his upside is good, but not great, and I don't think things will change too much with Seid making the picks as opposed to Jack Z.

[TheCrew07]

I rely too much on your opinions to form my own about who they take 1 overall. I'd prefer another impact bat and targeting some arms in the sandwich round. As the arms go, I like the approach of getting pitchers that can do more than just pitch, I like the multisport, great athlete approach they've been taking. Running down the various lists on your site their are guys I like but unlike the NFL draft where I watch a ton of football and know the players and how they should slot, I don't follow college/prep baseball at all on my own to be able to form opinions about slotting these guys in the first round. For example, if I read player X has power potential I'm intrigued but since I haven't seen him play I don't any attachment to him over anyone else, if that make sense.

[TooLiveBrew]

2005: I was completely comfortable with the Brewers taking any of the three players they were most often linked to: Cameron Maybin, Ryan Braun and Jay Bruce. Braun was the right choice. Alex Gordon entered the year as the one player everyone hoped would fall to the team, and Ryan Zimmerman ended the year as the player a lot of people hoped would somehow fall one more spot. Even then, Braun was the right choice.

 

I have to ask about this -- why is Braun the clear 'right' pick? Especially when you add in that comment relating to Zimmerman (not just saying this bc of the hitting streak) & Gordon. To clarify why I'm asking...

 

Gordon: LHB 3B (albeit not a good defender)

Zimmerman: 3B & stellar defender

Jay Bruce: corner OF LH bat with mega-power; solid fielder & a cannon for an arm

Cameron Maybin: Toolsy player with (from all accounts I've seen) a mega-ceiling & CF potential

 

Now I think for me, I can probably cross Maybin off the list, even if I leave out the context of Braun being up in a hurry & helping a team seriously contend. However, I have a hard time justifying Braun over the other three players. I'm not 'calling you out' -- far from it. I'm actually very interested to hear your rationale for why you value Braun so much more than any & all of those 4 guys.

[colbyjack]

Braun already is a superstar, with one 1.000 OPS season under his belt while he's working on another. He's the face of the franchise, and a nationally recognized player as well. He may not play the most glamorous position in left field, but he has the most dynamic bat. That isn't meant to take anything away from the other players, Braun just has the best bat, and he hit the ground running as soon as he was called up.

 

You could argue that Gordon has been somewhat of a disappointment for such a polished college hitter when the Royals took him 2nd overall. Zimmerman is rock solid of course, and Bruce looks like he's going to be pain to deal with on the Reds for possibly a similar career that Braun is poised to have in Milwaukee. Maybin is still a work in progress.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Colby, do you expect Seid to be similar to Jack Z in his drafting style meaning power bats and high upside arms. The last thing I want to see is the Brewers taking the safe route and picking polished college guys with little to no upside like Kyle Peterson. Im probably overreacting but Im very nervous about this first draft without Jack Z running the show.

 

I am hoping the team takes an impact bat in the first round or a pitcher with high upside. I personally prefer the high school route since the upside is usually higher and I would avoid the polished low upside choices in the early rounds if at all possible.

 

As far as Braun is concerned I agree that he was and still is the right pick. Looks to me like Maybin is on his way to becoming a bust and Bruce while very good is no better than Braun.

[colbyjack]

I think Seid will be similar to Jack Z. by trusting his scouts and using the best player available theory. That will lead to higher potential guys with the early picks, meaning high school arms (and bats) will not be avoided just because they are high schoolers.

[Never Outhustled]

The 5 guys on my radar right now are:

Eric Arnnet
Tim Wheeler
Jared Mitchell
Everett Williams
Brooks Raley

[TooLiveBrew]

Colby, do you expect Seid to be similar to Jack Z in his drafting style meaning power bats and high upside arms. The last thing I want to see is the Brewers taking the safe route and picking polished college guys with little to no upside like Kyle Peterson. Im probably overreacting but Im very nervous about this first draft without Jack Z running the show.

 

This is from the 3/31/09 WSSP interview with Seid that Mass Haas linked in the Draft forum:

 

 

"We wanna get All-Stars. Our job is to help make this team a championship team. You know, personally, high school [vs.] college -- they come from all over. If there's an arm that can help us... win a championship sooner [rather] than later, we're gonna probably go for that arm. If there's a position player that is an All-Star type guy with tools, and is gonna bring people to their feet at the stadium, we're gonna be excited about that guy."

 

 

The way I took that tidbit (happily) is that Seid's philosophy is to find the most talented players, regardless of h.s./college status. I sincerely doubt you need to worry, bkbc.

[colbyjack]

How many people recognized Bruce Seid sitting next to Doug Melvin this evening at the Brewers game in St. Louis? Without a doubt the pair were in town earlier today to check out prep RHP Jacob Turner who pitched today in an area district game for Westminster Christian Academy.

 

At this time of year, just a few weeks away from draft day, there is no off day for Seid. And while it is a Monday, with college conference championships set to begin tomorrow I believe, he could have been a couple of hundred miles north in Cedar Rapids to check out players such as Chad James and Ian Krol at the Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase.

 

Turner continues to get better and better, repertedly bumping his 92-94 FB to the 94-96 range this spring, touching 98. He also has great polish, similar to Tim Melville a year ago (a player I once compared to Yovani Gallardo). Keeping Turner away from North Carolina will be tough, as he's a Boras advisee and is going to demand top dollar no matter where he goes. For that alone I'm impressed that both Seid and Melvin (likely) were there.

[Tedaldtada]

Eric Arnnet

Tim Wheeler

Jared Mitchell

Everett Williams

Brooks Raley

Any reason in particular you are high on these guys? Do you think the all have better than split odds to last until the Brewers pick?

[LouisEly]

With Jack Z the formula was usually best (and safest) bat in the first round. I'm not sure that exists this year, so if I'm handicapping this race my gut feeling for the first round pick is:

 

1) Keyvius Sampson

2) Jacob Turner (Boras hasn't scared them away before)

3) Ben Tootle (see comments above from Seid via TLB)

4) Matt Davidson (they like bats in the first round)

 

If Davidson's commitment to USC makes him slip past the first, he's a good bet for a sandwich pick. If Tootle is there at their sandwich pick I think he's a good bet. My dark horse for a sandwich pick is Tanner Scheppers. They don't seem to mind players with questions about defense who can hit if they feel they can move them to another position, so I'll put Jonathan Walsh into the picture in the sandwich round too.

[colbyjack]

Louis, I'm not sure if you're relying on my rankings here (it hasn't been updated since the winter if you are), but Scheppers could go as early as the 2nd overall pick. It's unlikely he falls out of the top 3-5 overall picks the way he's pitching this spring.

[Never Outhustled]

Eric Arnnet

Tim Wheeler

Jared Mitchell

Everett Williams

Brooks Raley

Any reason in particular you are high on these guys? Do you think the all have better than split odds to last until the Brewers pick?

 

 

I just love Arnett. In fact I think he's on par with everybody besides Strasburg. I got the pleasure of watching him on the BTN today. He was outstanding. He's tall, lanky, lean, but still strong. He throws downhill. Outstanding velocity with a killer slider. He's a terrific athlete, has outstanding body control who I think will develop outstanding command. He showed really quick feet picking off a baserunner. Cal Eldred broke down his mechanics after the game and pointed out his flawless delivery. His production has been outstanding all year. He only has 1 year of college abuse, as opposed to most top college pitchers who have been rode into the ground by the time they're drafted.

 

Right now, unfortunately, I think Arnett is well out of our reach.

 

Mitchel is an athlete who's becoming a patient hitter. He shows some power, and has very good raw power. He has alot of untapped potential because of all the practice time he has missed with his football commitment.

 

Wheeler reminds me of a lefty swinging, more disciplined Corey Hart.

 

Everett Williams is an outstanding athlete from unbelieveable bloodlines, but also is productive and instintive.

 

Raley is a terrific athlete who already has impressive command, and it will only get better after he quits playing the OF, and gains more experience, as he's just a sophmore.

 

Raley will be available when the Brewers pick, but I'll guess only 1 or 2 of the other 3 will be left, but one will be plenty. I wish Arnett would have remained more of a secret, and I'm not usually excited about getting a pitcher.

[colbyjack]

Arnett did look awesome yesterday, and actually will be the subject of my PGX blog today. I agree 100% with X that after what I saw yesterday there is no way he falls to the Brewers pick.

[brewerguy71]

Of the list you posted, I am not very thrilled with any of those players. If I had to choose one of them, I would go with Heckathorn. he would be the safest pick of those listed. I am not too thrilled with the fact that he will probably be a bullpen guy, and feel that it is a waste to take a player like that with such a high pick. I am starting to fall in love with Jared Mitchell and feel that he would be an excellent choice for the Brewers in the first round. I also would be happy with Max Stassi.

 

For the Supplemental pick, if available, I would like to see them take Jiovanni Mier, but he probably may not be available by then. And I think that Wilson will be available for them in the 2nd, if not even the third round. Kendal Volz is a guy I would also like to see them pick up if they have the opportunity in the 3rd or 4th rounds.

[Never Outhustled]

I find it contradictery that you don't want a limited upside guy, but you like Mier and Stassi. I doubt the Brewers would have an interest in either because of that lack of upside.

 

I do, however agree with your desire for Mitchel. I think the emergence of Tim Wheeler increases the chances of Mitchell being available to us. Its a really deep 1st round, IMO.

[0729]

Bashore, the Indiana lefty, looked awfully good on Friday too, shutting down a Minnesota team that has been swinging the bat very well against everybody else in the Big Ten tourney. I think Bashore has now won 5 of his last 6 or something like that. It is my understanding that he is projected somewhere in the 2nd-4th round range, looking to be toward the upper end of that range on Friday.

[battlekow]

I'm intrigued by Robert Stock. Despite being a college junior, he's just a couple months older than Brett Lawrie, so he's roughly the age of a prep player, but with three years of college under his belt, presumably much more polished than one. I've heard he's got a nice sinker and curve and a better changeup than a lot of guys. Where do you (colby, X, etc) see him going? Would he be a reasonable supplemental round pick for the Brewers? Is the fact that he would rather catch a problem?

[brewerguy71]

Stock is probably a 4th or 5th round pick. He profiles as a bottom of the rotation type of starter (Dave Bush type). If hes available, its worth a look to take him. Im more intrigued by his offensive slip than the pitching. If he could return to his pre 2007 form, he is steal as a catcher.

[colbyjack]

It's funny you mentioned Dave Bush, the player I compared Stock to in my most recent notes column:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/notes-mainpage.html

 

I think the sandwich round might be a stretch, but most didn't consider guys like Dykstra and Frederickson sandwich picks at this time last year, so you never know. He definitely has a fresh arm, and as I noted in my notes column, I liked what I saw. Given the Bush comparison, you're talking about a guy that maxes out as a #3 starter, and the Brewers are more known for going for high risk/high reward type pitchers in the early rounds.

 

If he wants to catch and someone is willing to pay him to catch, than no, it's not a problem. He's going to get drafted early for his arm though, not his bat, or his glove, so he really doesn't have much bargaining power if that is truly his stance (unless someone truly does still believe in his potential as a positional prospect). One person I work with told me coming out of high school (in response to me comparing Stock to Joe Mauer three + years ago) that Stock wasn't as good as most people gave him credit for. They felt he had some serious holes in his swing and wasn't as polished defensively as his reputation led many to believe. This is the same person that initially turned me onto Matt Wieters coming out of high school. So, he's two-for-two.

[Never Outhustled]

He definitely has a fresh arm, and as I noted in my notes column, I liked what I saw. Given the Bush comparison, you're talking about a guy that maxes out as a #3 starter, and the Brewers are more known for going for high risk/high reward type pitchers in the early rounds.

He has similarities to Bush, there both were catchers 1st, and both have tailing fastballs and good change-ups, (though Stocks is potentially better). However Stock has 3-4 MPH more velocity on both his 2 seamer and 4 seamer, and there breaking balls are much different. Bush has an ultra slow 67-69 MPH big breaking ball. He controls it well now, but throwing for strikes was an issue for him earlier in his career, and it made him inconsistent when he couldn't throw it for 1st pitch strikes. Stock's beaking ball is tighter and more of a swing and miss pitch in the low 80s.

 

I can see the Brewers have a serious interest , as they have no problem with shorter pitchers and prefer fresh arms, however his signability could cloud things.

 

I like Stock, and hope the Brewers can get good news about his desire to pitch and sign. I don't think he'll be available to the Brewers in round 2 if he's willing to sign.

[colbyjack]

With prep hitters such as Stassi, Borchering and Davidson being linked to the Brewers, another name I feel compelled to bring up is North Carolina prep catcher/third baseman Wil Myers. Myers is pretty much a Brett Lawrie clone, a player known for his bat and athleticism/versatility, but not necessarily for his defense. He has been drawing more interest for his ability (emphasis on ability) to play catcher, but like Lawrie, I'm not so sure he should stick there long-term. I have a feeling he gets taken before the Brewers make their pick, but if he doesn't, he makes a lot of sense for them.

[Never Outhustled]

He sounds like a great kid, its baseball 24/7 for him. However, I don't like using top pickson catcher projects, do you think he could play 3B? Its 1 of the more frequent positions he plays in HS.

[colbyjack]

Myers actually doesn't have much experience catching, similar to Lawrie. He even admitted in an interview with my PGX associate Jim Ecker that he has relied more on his arm strength and athleticism when he has caught this year. His bat, like Lawrie's, may be too good to slow down by trying to have him learn how to catch at the minor league level.

 

So yes, I definitely think he could play 3B, which is probably a better spot for him anyway.

[Tbadder]

One of the Mock drafts out there (I can't remember which one) predicts the Brewers take Myers.