Is DiFelice for real?

[Tbadder]

I think he's for real. I also think Dillard is for real in relief, but for some reason the Brewers don't respect their own people at times. I hope Swindle gets another shot, and Smith too. I know it's complicated and there's good questions about who would be sent down, but if the opportunity arises I'd just like them to get a meaningful shot.

 

I'm starting to change my opinion about Dillard as a starter. I think he's working on some pitches that may allow him to do so...he's been pretty solid so far in AAA where in the past he's struggled as a starter. Moving Dillard to a starting role looks like the right move -- I hated it at the time.

 

This would be awesome news. What's he working on specifically, and is there any indication that the Brewers are taking him seriously as a viable prospect again?

[TheRealMattKain]

I'm starting to change my opinion about Dillard as a starter. I think he's working on some pitches that may allow him to do so...he's been pretty solid so far in AAA where in the past he's struggled as a starter. Moving Dillard to a starting role looks like the right move -- I hated it at the time.

I'm a little nervous about Dillard's AAA numbers this year. The ERA, WHIP, and homerun rate look nice. But 15 Ks and 12 BBs? That's not exactly a strikeout to walk ratio to be excited about. 9 earned runs looks solid, but 6 unearned runs? Even with a shoddy defense that's quite a few unearned runs to let cross the plate.

[Gobias Industries]

I really, really liked Dillard from the little I saw of him. He was hitting mid 90's on the FSN gun with a power sinker that he seemed to keep down. It's those types of relievers that I always hate to see our guys face.

[mletto157]

To answer the subject question: Yes.

 

Now all they have to do is bring up Swindle and DFA Julio and I will be completely comfortable with almost everyone in the bullpen coming in to any game.

[rluzinski]

It's hard to project any reliever to have a sub 3 ERA, much less a guy with less than 40 IP in the majors. That said, he's had a phenominal K and BB rate since 2007, so there's legitamite reason to be excited about him.

 

As for him being a starter, the average pitcher has an ERA .8 points higher as a starter than as a reliever. Let's say DiFelice is a true 3.5 reliever. Would you prefer 200 IP @ 4.3 ERA or 90 IP @ 3.5. ERA? That starter line is signifacantly more valuable and easily better than what we should expect from Soupon.

 

Of course, should we really expect a .8 ERA difference from DiFelice? He's not really an average kind of pitcher, so I 'm skeptical. As long as the back end of the rotation can keep up their reasonable performace, I'd leave things as they are.

[JJHardy7]

This would be awesome news. What's he working on specifically, and is there any indication that the Brewers are taking him seriously as a viable prospect again?

 

I believe his slider and change. His sinker is MLB ready. I think he could get by with that in the bullpen and be an average arm. If he can develop his change and slider more, I think he could be better than average in the pen and maybe a starter.

 

I'm a little nervous about Dillard's AAA numbers this year. The ERA, WHIP, and homerun rate look nice. But 15 Ks and 12 BBs? That's not exactly a strikeout to walk ratio to be excited about. 9 earned runs looks solid, but 6 unearned runs? Even with a shoddy defense that's quite a few unearned runs to let cross the plate.

 

I wouldn't worry about the unearned runs. As far as the strikeouts, I think that's more with him tinkering with pitches. At this point, I just want to make sure he keeps his walk numbers down and hopefully the Ks start to go up.

[TheRealMattKain]

I wouldn't worry about the unearned runs. As far as the strikeouts, I think that's more with him tinkering with pitches. At this point, I just want to make sure he keeps his walk numbers down and hopefully the Ks start to go up.

Hmmm... maybe not "worry" but we shouldn't completely discount the unearned runs. Dillard's ERA may be 2.31 but his RA is around 3.86. That's a big difference. There is a compelling argument in "Baseball Between the Numbers" suggesting that RA may be a better indicator or predictor than ERA of a pitcher's true skill. I don't want to get too into it and hijack the thread, but I think the basic idea is that ERA can often over-estimate how much fault belongs to the defense and under-estimate the roll that a pitcher plays in allowing supposed "unearned" runs (then again, Dillard does play with Mat Gamel). There a little bit on the wiki page covering this same topic:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_average

[JJHardy7]

Hmmm... maybe not "worry" but we shouldn't completely discount the unearned runs. Dillard's ERA may be 2.31 but his RA is around 3.86. That's a big difference. There is a compelling argument in "Baseball Between the Numbers" suggesting that RA may be a better indicator or predictor than ERA of a pitcher's true skill. I don't want to get too into it and hijack the thread, but I think the basic idea is that ERA can often over-estimate how much fault belongs to the defense and under-estimate the roll that a pitcher plays in allowing supposed "unearned" runs (then again, Dillard does play with Mat Gamel).

 

I'd have to look it up, but I think Dillard was the victim of Gamel and Escobar in the early part of the season when they were struggling on defense a bit. They've been pretty 'clean' the past few weeks. I do agree that RA might be a better indicator, but to be honest I haven't read much on it.

[cwolf2012]

His stuff is all that "nasty," he simply controls it so well you can't hit it. If a guy is painting the corners and a different one on every pitch, it's really really hard to hit. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher with more control than DiFelice.