2009 on track so far

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I was doing a little benchmarking at the 20% mark for this year versus all of 2008. It was eerie how close we are to last year on an overall basis, yet we are getting there differently.

 

Hitting - Last year we averaged 4.63 Runs/Game. This year we are at 4.94 Runs/Game.

Pitching - Last year our ERA was 3.85, this year we are at 4.16.

 

Interestingly we have picked up 50 runs on an annual basis in hitting and are on track to give up the same 50 back from pitching. Our record at 18-14 is on track for 91 wins...about the same as last year. Our schedule has been just a touch below average on current record. If we game weight our opponents...they have had a winning percentage of .493. We are also 9-7 both home and away.

 

I'm curious if someone would take this to the next level and say where are we picking up and losing the runs on an individual basis. I have to think 3B is the biggest year over year improvement. Probably losing Sabathia is a good chunk of the pitching, although middle relief has had some early issues. I also wonder what areas of the lineup are just not sustainable. While Braun and Cameron may cool off a little, Hardy and Hart could pick up a chunk of that. Before the season, it seemed our pitching was likely to give up 30-40 more runs this year and the hitting would have to make up the difference to get back to 90 wins. So far they have.

[Ennder]

We scored 4.94 R/G in 2007 with a lineup that probably wasn't as good as we had last year or this year. We were at 4.82 R/G before that horrid September last year as well. If I were a betting man I would have put us around 4.7-4.9 R/G going into the season since we have more younger guys than older guys. The pitching is probably about where I would expect it as well. We replaced Sheets with Gallardo and Sabathia with Looper and we have a slightly better bullpen.

[Baldkin]

We replaced Gange with Hoffman, which has to be considered a major upgrade as well.

[Postseason2006]

We also replaced Turnbow w/.....insert name __________.

[BrewCrewRising]

We replaced Bill Hall with Bill Hall Classic. I hope we did.

 

The bench is where I wonder if we'll see a visible decline.

 

How much better is the bullpen though really? In terms of ERA alone the relief core is at 4.10 right now, and all last year was 3.89 according to ESPN. I know ERA is only a very rough indicator, but I don't see how the bullpen is better. Even if you do the "X this year is better than Y last year" you run into problems. Hoffman last year had a similar ERA and K rate to Torres. I think Stetter is going to walk a lot more batters than Shouse did. Villanueva is not playing up to par. Riske is out and Julio seems to be replacing him to a T.

 

How is the bullpen better? (I'm honestly asking, not asking a rhetorical question to show that I disagree with you.)

[Ennder]

I think we got the same Bill Hall pretty much, unfortunately~

 

How is the bullpen better? (I'm honestly asking, not asking a rhetorical question to show that I disagree with you.)

 

Last year we had CV, Torres, Shouse and that was pretty much it for dependable guys. Mota and Gagne had stints where they were ok but I never really felt comfortable with them coming in the game. Hoffman is also an upgrade over Torres as the closer, last year was just a HR fluke more than anything, his xFIP was actually better than in 2006 or 2007

 

This year I have faith in CV, Hoffman, Stetter, DiFelice and Coffey. I think we just have a lot more depth than last season.

[theavrock]

We also replaced Turnbow w/.....insert name __________.

 

Jorge Julio. Not sure thats any better.

[dlk9s]

We also replaced Turnbow w/.....insert name __________.

Jorge Julio, unfortunately.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think we got the same Bill Hall pretty much, unfortunately~

 

Just curious Ennder, why do you feel that way? I'm not convinced he gets back to his huge year in 2006, but a better clip than 2007 or 2008 could certainly happen. His stats look a little more like 2005 than 2006 at this point. That gets us closer to replacement level which is a big improvement from last year. He had the lasix and it's the first year in a few that he returns to the same position. That has to help. Counsell has also been a solid sub at 3B. He's probably more likely to regress than Hall.

[Ennder]

Because he won't keep up the 1.269 OPS he has against lefties all year and his stats against RHP is still pretty miserable this year and that is with the extra walks that I think are more of a fluke from pitchers being wild in April. This is still a replacement level player against RHP.

[logan82]

Counsell has also been a solid sub at 3B. He's probably more likely to regress than Hall.

 

Counsell is playing with a platoon advantage almost every time out. If Macha keeps Hall in a soft platoon like he has so far, that should limit how much Hall hurts with a RHP on the mound.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Counsell's career OPS vs. Righties is .700 and he hasn't been there since 2005. He's currently at .967 vs. RHP.

 

Last year was the first year Hall didn't exceed .700 OPS vs. RHP since 2004, although to Ennder's point he's not quite there this year either. The soft platoon may be the right path while Counsell is playing well, but it likely doesn't add much value over time or to the degree it did with 3TO when he was healthy. Getting the 3B OPS up .080-.100 this year over Hall's stats last year seems very doable. That has to lead to over 10 extra runs alone?

[rluzinski]

A good way to see what players should be expected to improve or cool off is to go to Fangraphs and compare their current production with their updated ZiPS projection. For instance:

 

Hall, 2009:

Current: .292/.364/.483/.847

Updated ZiPS Projection: .253/.321/.446/.767

 

Hall might beat that projection if he's kept in a soft platoon but the odds say he's going to cool down significantly. Let's hope there's some intangible factor that justifies his production so far.

[DougJones43]

Let's hope there's some intangible factor that justifies his production so far.

 

Lasik maybe?

 

As for Counsell, he also did modify his stance quite a bit. The JS touched on it today. I'm sure that doesn't fully explain the huge gap in his actual vs projected numbers, but hopefully it's something that can continue to help him be less crappy than he has been the past few years.

[Invader3K]

Lasik and losing weight could have both been a help to Bill Hall.

 

I don't think anyone expects Hall to play like it's 2006, but it would be nice if his numbers end up falling somewhere roughly in the middle between his '06 and '08 lines. If he keeps playing above average defense, that would be a great help to this team down the stretch.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

This may be a good question for Ennder or rluzinski. Our defense also seems much better so far this year. Last year we gave up .41 unearned runs per game. This year we are at a clip of .21 unearned runs per game. I know it's a subjective statistic, but if our ERA is up .30 yet our RPG is only up .10, how much of this can be attributed to defense?

[Fatter than Joey]

We also replaced Turnbow w/.....insert name __________.

 

Turnbow only pitched 6 innings last year, and was gone before May -- he really wasn't a factor -- and the game that got him DFA'd -- (.2 IP 4H 4BB, 6ER) -- he entered the game down 8 runs.

 

Julio has already had way more impact, for good or for bad.

[Ennder]

Weeks is the only one really improved on defense this year. I think we were a slightly above average defense last year though.

[endaround]

Weeks has improved while Kendall has gotten worse. As for Hall he had an .893 OPS against LHP in 2008 so he'll fall of some but he could very well maintain something close to it. Its whether he can keep his OBP at around .330 against RHP. If he does he'll have value.

[liveforoctober]

Mike Cameron is the biggest change fellas. We didn't have him the first 25 of last year.

 

Also.. you can't say our pitching has dropped off because of Sabathia... we didn't get him until summer.

[logan82]

Counsell's career OPS vs. Righties is .700 and he hasn't been there since 2005. He's currently at .967 vs. RHP.

 

Last year was the first year Hall didn't exceed .700 OPS vs. RHP since 2004, although to Ennder's point he's not quite there this year either. The soft platoon may be the right path while Counsell is playing well, but it likely doesn't add much value over time or to the degree it did with 3TO when he was healthy. Getting the 3B OPS up .080-.100 this year over Hall's stats last year seems very doable. That has to lead to over 10 extra runs alone?

 

The difference is that Counsell has put up a much higher OBP than Hall against RHP. Hall might put up an OPS 70 points higher, but Counsell should be able to put up an OBP 40 points higher than Hall against RHP. If Counsell is a worse option than Hall against RHP, it isn't by much. I see no problem with a soft platoon. It should help bring Hall's overall numbers up.

[mls4]

Mike Cameron is the biggest change fellas. We didn't have him the first 25 of last year.

 

Also.. you can't say our pitching has dropped off because of Sabathia... we didn't get him until summer.

Both true, but the comparison was between this year so far and last year in total; not this year so far and last year through the same 5 weeks.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

This may be a good question for Ennder or rluzinski. Our defense also seems much better so far this year. Last year we gave up .41 unearned runs per game. This year we are at a clip of .21 unearned runs per game. I know it's a subjective statistic, but if our ERA is up .30 yet our RPG is only up .10, how much of this can be attributed to defense?

I'm not either of those guys, but the defense has been better. Fewer unearned runs is probably not the most elegant way to look at that though, since you can make fewer errors and still be worse defensively. Also, the pitchers share some portion of the blame for unearned runs in terms of what they've done before the error to put runners on base or what they do after the error to fail to strand them. Not to mention the perpetually stupifying scoring decisions you see, and the fact that the actual rules about what can count as an error (no mental errors, for example) seem like they were crafted with the deliberate intention of making errors and fielding percentage less effective than they could be at measuring what like they are theoretically supposed to measure (i.e. how good is your defense).

 

On the other hand, UZR has the Brewers as the second best fielding team in MLB so far at plus 11.6, behind only the Rays who are lapping the field at plus 23.7. Assuming they are able to keep up this level of defensive play, that puts the Brewers on a pace to earn roughly 4 more wins with the leather this year than they earned last year, when they were plus 13.8 for the entire season.

 

I've watched most of the games and I guess my eyes agree with yours. The defense does seem better. I don't know if it really seems 40 runs/season better, but it's a nice thought that it might be.