Cole Gilespie

[monty57]

From MiLB.com

 

2006 Highlights: Led the Pioneer League in on-base pct. (.464). ... Finished second in the league in batting average (.344) and fourth in walks (40). ... Named the Best Strike-zone Discipline by Baseball America. ... Named the 11th-best prospect in the Pioneer League by Baseball America.

 

2007 Highlights: Selected as a FSL Midseason All-Star. ... Spent the entire season at Class A Advanced Brevard County and hit .267 with three homers and 62 RBIs in 129 games. ... Named the FSL Player of the Week for May 14-20. ... Named the sixth-best prospect in the Brewers organization by Baseball America.

 

2008 stats: .281 avg, .286 OBP, .472 Slg, .858 OPS, 17 SB, 1 CS

 

I'll readily admit that I don't study minor league stats nearly as much as some here. Maybe that's a fringe prospect, but it looks to me like he has some potential. Very few players in MLB hit like Braun and Prince. What numbers do the other 95% of major league hitters (the non-superstars) put up when they're in AA?

[Never Outhustled]

Hart in CF makes me cringe.

Can I ask why? When he did play CF, he was actually better there than he is in RF. His career UZR supports that, though I realize its only a 60some game sample. I've heard numerous players say its easier to track the ball in CF, and that seemed to help Hart overcome the weakness he has in RF. Obviously, his speed is outstanding, and he has a much stronger arm than the average CF.

 

An OF of Gillespie, Hart, and Braun would have workable range, though I'd prefer Gillespie as a 4th OF because of his offense. I think we could find a true offensive dominater if we needed a LF, and he would be a lefty batter.

[TheCrew07]

Personally, I see Gillespie as trade bait, but his ceiling is far lower than Brantley's or Laporta's. The thought of Cole in the bigs is the same as Hernan being better than Rickie or Nelson being ready to take over for Prince talk we heard in the offseason...some folks have trouble telling apart the true prospects (like Gamel) from the fringe.

If you think we were pimpin Nelson as a solution to Fielder leaving you're wrong... That whole conversation was meant to be about pitching and got hijacked into a thread debating the merits of the 2 players, similar to every mention of Escobar leading to a Hardy/Escobar debate. You're a statistical guy, you shouldn't have a problem understanding how Prince's horrible defense limits his total value and how 2 players could actually end up being more valuable than 1.

 

Pitching, top of the rotation talent, that's all I've been posting about...

 

As far as Gillespie goes, let's not get carried away, his arm is what it is. Gamel is a much more complicated player, because he has very good to great range at 3B, so he has the potential to be a good fielder at the position... it's apples and oranges. He may become a starter someplace, but I just don't see it, he's does many things well, some good, but I don't ever see him pushing Hart or any other starter off the current roster. He's a RH Gabe Gross, without the arm... He's a fine player and great depth, but corner OF spots is not a weakness in this organization, and there are some elite talents that are ahead of him on the depth chart.

[monty57]

He's a fine player and great depth, but corner OF spots is not a weakness in this organization, and there are some elite talents that are ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Braun will hopefully be a stud here for a long time. Hart is currently under Brewers' control for another two years (through 2011), and there is no doubt he is "the man" as long as he's here. There has been speculation that he could be moved for starting pitching, leaving a hole, or he could move to CF if Cain is not ready next year, unless Gwynn or Duffy mans the spot, which probably isn't high on a lot of people's list. There is also always the possibility of injury.

 

That said, beyond the Brewers' starters, who do you classify as our "elite talent?" On the Power 50, the only corner OF ahead of Gillespie is Caleb Gindle, who's 20 in high-A ball. Brendan Katin and Jason Bourgeois are the other AAA options, and neither seem to be too highly regarded. I agree that Gillespie shouldn't be put in the same category as Gamel, Braun or Fielder, but there are few players who are in that category (at least offensively), so it's unfair to compare him to our superstars. The real question is whether or not Gillespie has major league talent.

 

When I look at the minor leaguers, I try to envision how they will one day help the Brewers. On that note, I wonder if we have corner outfield talent that would allow Hart to either be traded or moved to center field next year? Hart is a good player, but not irreplaceable. He'll likely be making around $5MM next year, which is not terribly high, but we are still on a budget. I'm fine with Hart as our RF next year, and he'd likely post an OPS in the .800 range. If we could trade him for another position of need, and Gillespie could post an OBP heavy .750-.850 OPS while making league minimum, than that option would have to be weighed. Again, the question is whether he'd be able to do that.

[TheCrew07]

Braun, Hart, Gamel, Cain, Lawrie for tools and/or athleticism at this moment... Down the road I like Gindl more on the corners, Schafer more in CF, Dennis has some very nice power potential...

 

I'm willing to concede that while I like Gamel and Lawrie on the IF, they may actually end up in the OF.

 

I like Cole, it's just that the best part of his game is drawing walks, I'd rather have impact bats that learn patience, or toolsy guys with room to grow. With Gillespie what you see is what you get.

[monty57]

Thanks for the list. As you menioned, I think the Brewers are going to really try to keep Gamel at 3B, or they would have moved him while he was in the minors. He could be moved later, but I think they're going to give him every shot at third, and there is also the possibility that he's moved to 1B when Prince is gone. Also, I hope Lawrie sticks at 2B, where he can be fast-tracked to Milwaukee. I thought Cain was our CF of the future and I'm not sure who Dennis is. I, too hope that Gindl can be a good MLB player in the future, and he may well be Hart's ulitmate replacement, but how far away is the future?

 

Since this thread is about Cole, what I think is the most important question is "what type numbers does he project to post at the major league level?" If he is a low-.700s OPS corner OF with a noodle arm, he shouldn't be in the picture. If he's a high-.700s to mid-.800s OPS corner OF with an average LF arm, he could play a role in the Brewers' future. If the latter is true, I have some questions / scenarios as to why I think Gillespie could play a role.

 

One thing we are pretty sure of is that we will lose Cameron after this year. If Cain is not ready to man center next year, would you:

 

1) Play Hart in CF and if so who would be your corner OF opposite Braun

 

2) Play Gwynn / Duffy / Bourgeois as a stopgap CF with Braun / Hart at the corners

 

3) Sign a FA / make a trade

 

4) Something else

 

Also, there's a chance that Hart's 2007 (.892 OPS) season was somewhat of a fluke (or pitchers figured him out) and he's really a .750-.800 OPS guy. He had a .759 OPS last year and is currently hitting at a .727 OPS clip in a limited number of ABs (145). I hope he finds his 2007 form, but if not, could Gillespie put up these type of numbers for far less money than Hart? If Hart ends this season with a .759 OPS like he did last year, and is due to be paid around $4-5MM in his second year of arby, what should we do?

 

Finally, Hart could have another .900ish OPS season, and Melvin could get offered a good trade for him. If we're offered a good young arm for Hart this offseason, should we trade him, and if so, who should be our OF?

 

I think the likely scenario is that Cain's ready to step in as a starting CF / leadoff hitter and Hart and Braun man the corners. I see Gillespie as a 4th OF in our organization who gives us some options as some of these questions are answered. It's nice to have someone like him there for the "just in case" scenarios.

[LouisEly]

He does not have the speed for CF.

 

If Gorman Thomas can play CF for a team that made it to Game 7 of the World Series, then I think Gillespie has the speed to play CF. A guy who stole 17 bases and logged four triples in a season has adequate speed to play CF.

 

His MLE for his decent AA year must be around 750-775 or so, nothing to speak of for a LF.

 

What was Hart's MLE for the season he won Southern League MVP?

 

his ceiling is far lower than Brantley's or Laporta's

 

Both of those guys are gone. Brantley is struggling like Gillespie so far this year at AAA, yet Gillespie has a .050 higher OBP. And Gillespie's OBP in Huntsville last year was only .009 less than Brantley's. And he slugged a lot higher than Brantley, and had twice as many triples and over twice as many doubles as him. And weren't there questions about whether Brantley had a strong enough arm to play CF? Of course Laporta has a higher ceiling. But a "far lower" ceiling that Brantley? I don't know about that. I think it was Casey Stengel who once said, "Potential is a French word - it means you're not worth a (darn) yet."

 

In theory, he may develop into more, but he's 25 and just a few AB's into AAA.

 

He's 24, and will be for another month. Despite his "struggles", he's posting a .372 OBP in AAA.

 

I don't think Clancy's idea is all that half-baked - he could very well have the best OBP skills of any OF in the organization, and that coupled with his adequate speed would make a very decent leadoff hitter. It's not traditional to have a LF as your leadoff hitter, but Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines were pretty good leadoff hitters who were left fielders. I am NOT saying that Gillespie is anywhere near as good as those guys, but it is not unheard of for a LF to be a leadoff hitter.

[clancyphile]

He's 24, and will be for another month. Despite his "struggles", he's posting a .372 OBP in AAA.

 

I don't think Clancy's idea is all that half-baked - he could very well have the best OBP skills of any OF in the organization, and that coupled with his adequate speed would make a very decent leadoff hitter. It's not traditional to have a LF as your leadoff hitter, but Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines were pretty good leadoff hitters who were left fielders. I am NOT saying that Gillespie is anywhere near as good as those guys, but it is not unheard of for a LF to be a leadoff hitter.

The 1987 World Series between Minnesota and St. Louis featured two left fielders who were batting leadoff for most of that season: Dan Gladden (Twins) and Vince Coleman (Cardinals). Now, I wouldn't exactly call either of those two teams desperate for talent that year.

 

Gillespie's shown that even when he slumps, he draws bunches of walks. If JJ, Ryan, and Prince can combine for 85-110 homers a season, I'd like someone like Gillespie, who has a pretty good chance of being on base when those homers come, batting in front of them.

[TooLiveBrew]

What was Hart's MLE for the season he won Southern League MVP?

 

Cole Gillespie is about to turn 25 & is in AAA. Hart won the Southern League MVP (AA) in his age-21 season. I'm not sure there's really anything to be proven from that comparison... but fwiw in Hart's age-25 season, his MLE, er, line, was an .892 OPS. I think it's safe to say Gillespie is not in the same class as Hart.

[clancyphile]

What was Hart's MLE for the season he won Southern League MVP?

 

Cole Gillespie is about to turn 25 & is in AAA. Hart won the Southern League MVP (AA) in his age-21 season. I'm not sure there's really anything to be proven from that comparison... but fwiw in Hart's age-25 season, his MLE, er, line, was an .892 OPS. I think it's safe to say Gillespie is not in the same class as Hart.

I certainly am not saying he is, but I am saying that his skill-set would fill a need for the Brewers quite adequately, if not well, for a few years.

[twobrewers]

Can I ask why?

Based solely on what I have observed - Corey Hart is our worst outfielder.

 

I've seen him play in CF a few times and thought he looked serviceable. However, I just have a hard time projecting a very average RF as an ideal candidate to move to CF. (Although his .725 OPB plays better in CF)

[battlekow]

People always said Wily Mo Pena played much better in CF than in a corner, and his UZR's agree with that opinion. It's unusual but not unheard of.

[LouisEly]

but fwiw in Hart's age-25 season, his MLE, er, line, was an .892 OPS. I think it's safe to say Gillespie is not in the same class as Hart.

And Hart's line last year was .759 and this year so far is .738 (see Monty57's post), so if Gillespie's MLE based on his AA season is .750 to .775 then he would be at worst a wash for Hart. The trend is looking very much like Gillespie is in his class.

[TheCrew07]

Well if we're using Hart's current season... what about Gillespie's at AAA?

 

Sure if we took Gillespie's best season and Hart's worst they might compare, but based on pure talent there is no comparison.

 

Now Hart may never play to an OPS above .850 again and may continue to slide into oblivion, thus making Gillespie a better option. However, that's not the case at this moment. Right now Gillespie isn't even a viable bench player the way he's hitting, which is very disappointing to me personally. I was hoping both Gillespie and Cain would be available for long term replacement duty if one of the big 3 in the OF went down.

[Never Outhustled]

so if Gillespie's MLE based on his AA season is .750 to .775

 

 

I really like Gillespie as a 4th OF, but his MLE for last season was under 700.

[dadofandrew]

.317/.376 to be exact. I though H-ville was enough of a pitcher's park to make him higher than that, but I guess not.

 

He might be a platoon guy or a reserve someday, but his skill set makes even a 4th OF status as remote, as only desperation could lead anyone to play him in RF. Juan Pierre doesn't play RF for a reason, that 1B-3B merry-go-round is painful to watch. He does walk a lot, so he might be a very nice bench guy, especially if Gamel ends up in the OF. You could imagine him as a RH Catalanotto, and he won't play RF except in an emergency either.

 

I just fail to see the ceiling.

[monty57]

Thanks X & Al, if he's truly a .700 OPS guy and has a weak arm, he probably is best suited for AAA with a ceiling of bench duty on the Brewers. I think our 2010 OF situation got a lot clearer with the Gwynn-for-Gerut trade. We likely just picked up our #1 option at CF next year, giving Cain some more time in the minors. Braun-Gerut-Hart with some combination of Gillespie/Katin/Bourgeois/Duffy (if he's still around) as our 4th/5th OF.

[Never Outhustled]

Thanks X & Al, if he's truly a .700 OPS guy and has a weak arm, he probably is best suited for AAA with a ceiling of bench duty on the Brewers.

While I pointed out his poor MLE from last season, I don't think that should be taken too seriously. He played the entire season with a broken foot., which required offseason surgury. He then had a bum elbow to start this year. I'm concerned about his durability, but I don't think we've seen the best of his bat.

[clancyphile]

Thanks X & Al, if he's truly a .700 OPS guy and has a weak arm, he probably is best suited for AAA with a ceiling of bench duty on the Brewers.

While I pointed out his poor MLE from last season, I don't think that should be taken too seriously. He played the entire season with a broken foot., which required offseason surgury. He then had a bum elbow to start this year. I'm concerned about his durability, but I don't think we've seen the best of his bat.

What is most impressive is how he is drawing walks all over the place, even at this point. And his bat is getting a bit better, too (he added a double in last night's loss).

 

The tools to lead off are there - or at least being a better option at leadoff than present options (Weeks, Hart).

[LouisEly]

2-3 with a triple (#4 on the season) and two walks against Inman & co. Is he a power hitter? Not really, and thus will never have the slugging % to have a really high OPS. But I think Clancy is on to something here - he has a penchant for doubles (38 last year in AAA) and triples (four last year and four already this year), and if he can keep his OBP up around .370 and get to 2nd or 3rd fairly frequently on base hits, he could fill the role of leadoff hitter adequately.

 

He played the entire season with a broken foot., which required offseason surgury.

 

I don't recall the entire season, but didn't he get hurt about 2/3rds of the way through the season and his numbers tailed off severely after that? I seem to recall an insanely high number of doubles for him around or just past the midway point but tailed off. I can't find a game log for him for last year (didn't look too hard either - http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ).

[Mass Haas]

Some nice insights here from someone who has taken in the first two games of the series in Portland.

[sbrylski]

Gillespie = right handed Frank Catalanotto maybe? That would be a decent, not great, everyday leadoff guy.

[clancyphile]

Gillespie = right handed Frank Catalanotto maybe? That would be a decent, not great, everyday leadoff guy.

I'd probably call him unspectacularly great. In this slump, he walks once every 6.2 PAs. The OBP-BA is .137 as of this moment.

 

Translate that to Gillespie's career AVG of .284. That would be an OBP of .427. Let's say Gillespie only hits .260 in the majors. I'll still take that .397 OBP at leadoff.

 

Now, imagine that in front of JJ, Ryan, and Prince.

[southpaw121505]

Anyone know if he runs well? His SB numbers are better than I thought they would be.

[Never Outhustled]

Translate that to Gillespie's career AVG of .284. That would be an OBP of .427. Let's say Gillespie only hits .260 in the majors. I'll still take that .397 OBP at leadoff.

The numbers don't translate that way. MLB pitchers are less likely to walk Gillespie than minor league pitchers. Try using MLEs. That will give you OBA.