Looking for expected standings w/ confidence intervals

[sbrylski]

I want these: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

 

With 95% confidence intervals for the win totals. Available? Possible to calculate with data present?

[rluzinski]

There are so many uncertainties you could consider. I think the biggest one is just the uncertainy of binomial uncertainties. Flip a coin 162 times and how many heads will you get?

 

Standard Deviation = SQRT [n x p x (1 - p)]

 

n = number of games

p = probability of winning

 

For a .500 team playing 162 games, 1 SD = 6.4 games.

[endaround]

The only way to get those CIs for their projection system is to undertake a bootstrap