Time to have a serious discussion about our bench

[TheCrew07]

You may be right cost wise, I honestly have no idea, even if it did cost $1,000,000... what would the return on the back end of the investment be? How many wins would solid defense be worth from day 1 for 8 position players? What's the average cost of a marginal win?

 

Absolutely they need time off, though many of our players have played winter ball, which is why I lean towards getting in extra work during the season. The benefit of the off-season is that they wouldn't be potentially impacting a player's play during the game (in the event they wore a guy down).

 

I'm not aware of teams doing anything beyond roving instructors, but I clearly stated I don't believe in following the existing model for the reasons previously mentioned, they aren't going to achieve better results by doing exactly what they've always done.

[strawbossisevil]

And would adding those instructors at each level automatically increase the rate at which a player improves defensively? Could such a thing even be quantified? So who is to know whether it would be worth it or not? If having the instructors means one or two less errors per year, is that worth the money being handed out?

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers see him as the only advanced prospect at his position (whereas we have a number of solid OF prospects in the chain) so he is going to have all year to work on the 3b position.

Why do people kick around Taylor Green? His minor league numbers rival Gamel's. While he doesn't have alot of defensive upside, he is a better defender right now than Gamel. The Brewers sent him to the AFL last year, they obviously like him alot. He should be very MLB ready by 2011.

[TheCrew07]

If you're looking for a definitive answer I don't have one. 1 or 2 errors as a team... be serious at least, Gamel reduced his total dramatically in 1 year.

 

They'll likely do nothing and defense will continue to be a problem. I'd rather try something than sit on my hands but it's not my organization, I feel there's more value investing in the development of their own players than paying market value for filler, not to mention the lost wins along the way.

 

Better defense = Better players = Better team = More wins = More fans = More attendance and merchandise sales.

[logan82]

Instead of blindly defending the metric, consider what I'm actually trying to say

 

I made a mistake on how errors were figured into UZR. They are figured in though. You said

I've always been of the opinion that the way metrics like UZR are calculated they measure defensive potential rather than the actual defensive result. Gamel would score very well on the range side because he gets to a ton of balls even though he doesn't convert them for outs, he'd score poorly on the error side because he throws like garbage. Kinda like Hall's career numbers defensively where his range covers up everything else he does... tons of adjustment for range would make Gamel a poor 3B, but not historically bad

which seemed to be saying that Gamel would show up as a bettter defender than he actually is because he has good range which would cover up his errors. I just disagree. UZR penalizes players less for errors on tough plays than errors on easy plays. I don't think it is a big flaw though. I think the bigger flaw is not accounting for the position of a defender at the start of a play.

[strawbossisevil]

X,

 

The scouts are not very high on Green, with most seeing him maxing out as an average 2nd baseman or utility bench player. I tend to agree with them, that he doesn´t have the ceiling to be a starting 3b in the majors.

 

I hope I´m wrong and he tears up AA. But to trust him to be our future 3b I think is to set ourselves up for disappointment.

[Never Outhustled]

The scouts are not very high on Green, with most seeing him maxing out as an average 2nd baseman or utility bench player. I tend to agree with them, that he doesn´t have the ceiling to be a starting 3b in the majors.

Now those are the same scouts that don't think Gamel is a 3B right?

 

The scouts aren't high on Greens overall tools, but they do say he has very good batspeed. His lack of tools limit his versatility defensively, but his offensive ceiling is good.

[strawbossisevil]

It´s not that the scouts don´t think that Gamel can be a 3b, it´s that they recognize the large gap between his offense and his defense (something which we have all noticed). Scouts have said that Gamel has the instincts to play 3b, but say that he struggles with his footwork, something that is correctable (at least to a certain extent) with time. But scouts, like many on this site, see his bat as ready to play in the bigs, and think he would be better suited to a different position for that reason, rather than waiting for him to improve on the defensive side.

 

And clearly the Brewer´s scouts think Gamel is capable of playing 3b, or he would have been moved already.

 

And we´ll have to agree to disagree on Green´s bat. I don´t think he´ll amount to be anything but either a 2nd baseman or a reserve infielder. Green = a slightly better Rottino in my mind.

[FVBrewerFan]

You do realize this is all a charade right? Gamel will be starting at 1B, maybe as soon as this August.

[Invader3K]

You do realize this is all a charade right? Gamel will be starting at 1B, maybe as soon as this August.

And what do you base this on?

[FVBrewerFan]

The fact that Prince Fielder will never sign a long term deal here. So it only makes sense to trade him. Depending where the Brewers stand at the end of this season, it could be that soon...or the next off-season. I am convinced if Melvin can get what he wants for him, he will pull the trigger before next April and Gamel will be the starting 1B.

[Never Outhustled]

And we´ll have to agree to disagree on Green´s bat. I don´t think he´ll amount to be anything but either a 2nd baseman or a reserve infielder. Green = a slightly better Rottino in my mind.

Dude, your way to smart to make a statement like this. Green OPS'd 922 in A ball as a 20 year old. Rottino played at the same level as a 24 year old, yet OPS'd just 834. Green won't be 24 untill the 2011 season. These players don't compare.

[brewtown82]

So I deleted my erroneous Brad Nelson thread, but the question remains; What do we do now to now to improve the production from our bench? Is Hank Blalock still available?

[Invader3K]

I have to imagine Nelson's time is running out. It's just not acceptable for a bench player to have no hits after 19 PAs. Yeah, you can say "small sample", but he's not getting the job done, and he really doesn't bring much else to the table. Fortunately the team doesn't have to worry about their bench too much at this point.

[Ennder]

I agree that we will probably trade Fielder though it wouldn't surprise me to keep him and then only trade him next year if we are doing poorly at the deadline. You don't HAVE to trade every single player, letting them walk as a type A FA is a very viable method of building a team. You just have to hope that something like the Sabathia situation doesn't happen.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have to imagine Nelson's time is running out. It's just not acceptable for a bench player to have no hits after 19 PAs. Yeah, you can say "small sample", but he's not getting the job done, and he really doesn't bring much else to the table. Fortunately the team doesn't have to worry about their bench too much at this point.

I agree, and I don't believe the "small sample' argument is valid. Small sample is the definition of a bench player. You need to produce in the limited opportunities you have, or you're not adding any value. For that matter, I'm getting closer to saying it's time to bite the bullet and bring TGJ up to replace Duffy. At least he has shown it's possible to get a PH once in a while.

 

But I have confidence in Melvin. It's not like he's sitting around oblivious to the problem.

[Invader3K]

Duffy has at least shown some defensive prowess and ability to get the bat on the ball when needed. Nelson hasn't really done any of that.

 

I remember hearing Kevin Kennedy talk about his days as a minor league manager, and when some kid got recalled back to AAA from a short MLB stint. He had gone something like 1 for 11 or 2 for 13 in the majors. The kid didn't understand, and Kennedy told him "The way you hit, you shouldn't be surprised...you didn't get the job done." Maybe that's an extreme example, but Nelson just really isn't making much of his opportunity, which is too bad. I know he's obviously trying, but he needs to get some hits quick.

[Ennder]

Duffy has looked more lost at the plate than Nelson though, swinging at complete junk that he has no chance to hit. Nelson has for the most part shown good plate discipline, he just can't seem to make any contact. These guys are all marginal players so I guess I just don't care what they do about the bench. Best case scenario is they sign someone like Edmonds.

[joepepsi]

Except for Cameron and Kendall the starters are quite young. Youngsters don't get injured as much and are better able to play everyday. If these guys were in their 30's they'd need a day off every 7-10 games. Then the bench would matter more.

 

The Brewers core players have been remarkably healthy throughout their careers, save perhaps, Weeks. If one of the regulars goes on the DL for a substantial amount of time, then Doug will probably look for a veteran replacement. In the meantime I'm OK with Duffy in CF once a week for Cameron and Nelson/McGehee on the occasional get-out-of-town afternoon game.

[FVBrewerFan]

True, but that's not my concern. I'm not worried about depth, replacing a starter for a stretch of time, etc. The biggest issue is pinch hitting. There will be many more close games this year, and it sure would be nice to send a PH up to the plate with at least some crumb of hope they can actually get on base once in a while.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm not worried about depth, replacing a starter for a stretch of time, etc. The biggest issue is pinch hitting. There will be many more close games this year, and it sure would be nice to send a PH up to the plate with at least some crumb of hope they can actually get on base once in a while.

While Nelson hasn't hit so far, I don't think has done something to show he'll never hit. He might reel off 5 hits in a row. He hasn't been overmatched, he just hasn't gotten hits. His end of season numbers will likely be poor, but it wouldn't suprise me at all if he put up a 750 OPS from this point forward. We're not going to find a bench bat better than that.

 

Jim Edmonds would be a great 4th OF, but the lack of available playing would make his Value Wins minute, and his dollars per production would be very poor. It would be a waste of a few million dollars.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree, and I don't believe the "small sample' argument is valid. Small sample is the definition of a bench player. You need to produce in the limited opportunities you have, or you're not adding any value.

 

This is the type of thinking that can really get a smaller market team like the Brewers in trouble. Nelson has proven that he can hit very well at AAA, and while obviously his 19 ABs this season haven't been good, you don't throw away a powerful LHB that will be cheap for years to come because of 19 AB.

 

Besides, the real reason Nelson is taking so much heat is that the 19 AB are to open the season. He's even shown he can hit at the MLB level (last season)... so really not sure why suddenly 19 PA as a PH is an acceptable small sample to determine, 'Yes, we should risk completely losing that player because of those ABs'. Just makes zero sense to me.

 

 

EDIT: And Nelson just missed tying the game tonight against the Reds by a fraction of an inch on the bat. I'm sure everyone still feels he should be released?

[rluzinski]

I agree, and I don't believe the "small sample' argument is valid. Small sample is the definition of a bench player. You need to produce in the limited opportunities you have, or you're not adding any value.

 

Small samples are about not being able to judge true talent very well with the limited data. You want the most talented players on your bench, regardless of their most recent small sample production. If the Brewers have someone better than Nelson, they should call him up. If they don't, let him play.

[Ennder]

Hardy went 0 for 28 at one point last year while playing full time, should we have sent him to AAA? If your answer is no then you shouldn't be judging Nelson off of 19 AB either. If you thought Nelson being on the team in the first place was a weakness than this validates your point somewhat, otherwise you can't really read anything into it.

[danzig6767]

Hardy went 0 for 28 at one point last year while playing full time, should we have sent him to AAA? If your answer is no then you shouldn't be judging Nelson off of 19 AB either. If you thought Nelson being on the team in the first place was a weakness than this validates your point somewhat, otherwise you can't really read anything into it.

In general i agree with that, but i also do wonder if some players are just more able to handle the limited at bats and still be productive? My only problem with Nelson so far isn't the lack of actual hits given there can be luck in so few at bats, it's just that often he's had some very ugly at bats. Granted Duffy has also looked ugly, but he at least brings stellar defense, speed to pinch run, and the ability to leg out weakly hit balls into the equation. So even when Duffy isn't hitting well, there are other ways he can contribute, Nelson is utterly worthless unless he provides quality hitting off the bench.

 

More so than being concerned about pinch hitting production, i'm more worried about what if one of our starting outfielders got hurt and had to miss a few weeks. Neither of Nelson or Duffy looks to be an appealing option, especially when lefties would be on the mound. My buddy brought up seeing if Jenkins would sign for the minimum. I'd guess that Nelson is a little better of a hitter, but Jenkins is a much better outfielder. Duffy i'd keep around regardless because he's a high quality defensive CF in case Cameron got hurt and had to miss a few weeks.