Time to have a serious discussion about our bench

[rluzinski]

If vets being better pinch hitters is a given, what is the magnitude of this effect?

[Ennder]

but Gamel is a better 3B right now than Fielder is a 1B

 

This isn't anywhere close to true. Gamel has been historically bad at 3B, Fielder isn't even the worst 1B in baseball currently.

 

No they really aren't capable of being productive. Jenkins would maybe give you a 750-780 OPS while platooned

 

I'd take the under on a .750 OPS from Jenkins even in a platoon role at this point.

[Never Outhustled]

This isn't anywhere close to true. Gamel has been historically bad at 3B, Fielder isn't even the worst 1B in baseball currently.

What defensive metric are you using to judge Fielder's ability to receive throws?

[Ennder]

Well I could use the same one you are and just watch games and he isn't anywhere near as bad as people make him out to be with that one. I think people got spoiled from watching Pujols and Lee so much in our division, both are gold glove caliber 1B.

 

For UZR/150 Mike Jacobs was the worst in baseball last year, Loney and LaRoche were right around Fielder. Using plus/minus again Jacobs was much worse and Giambi and Delgado were worse. Fielder is a poor defensive 1B but not out of the ordinary poor. Gamel struggles to play 3 games in a row without an error, it isn't the same ballpark.

 

I have watched Giambi field 1B and he is worse than Fielder without a doubt in my mind, Jacobs is worse as well.

[TheCrew07]

only because defensive metrics, whichever you choose, do not take scoops into effect at all. A 5 gallon pail laying on it's side would scoop more balls.

 

I'm not going to defend Gamel's defense but even casual observation should lead one to the conclusion that he's better than Braun was. Somehow totalzone had him at 2 runs below average last year, obviously it's horribly flawed for MiLB players, but as you've said in the past any metric is better than nothing. Gamel's fielding percentage was also better than Braun's so I'm not sure "historically bad" is an accurate assessment of his play.

 

He's bad, probably in the bottom 2 in the league defensively at this point in time, the one thing he really has going for himself is his range, there's hope there. I've always been of the opinion that the way metrics like UZR are calculated they measure defensive potential rather than the actual defensive result. Gamel would score very well on the range side because he gets to a ton of balls even though he doesn't convert them for outs, he'd score poorly on the error side because he throws like garbage. Kinda like Hall's career numbers defensively where his range covers up everything else he does... tons of adjustment for range would make Gamel a poor 3B, but not historically bad.

[Ennder]

Here is some data on scooping throws....

 

http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/1bscoop.htm

 

Here is another one

 

http://spreadsheets.googl...=p4mB-r5bxU8gIS5QTxMVfDw

 

Here is some more

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...hp/first-basemen-scoops/

 

The first 2 are only through 2007 but Fielder had come out above average at scooping throws in both of those studies. The last one is more recent but doesn't include an entire list, just worst and best. Fielder isn't on the worst list. I personally think he is below average mostly because he is short, but he doesn't stand out to me as a complete hack at scooping throws. He just gets a lot of blame from the fans on bad throws that are hard plays. A good example is how people jumped on Fielder after the terrible throw by Hall that led to a tie game earlier in the season. The throw was in the dirt and way offline and when Fielder doesn't make a great play on it he gets blamed for it even though the fault is 100% Hall's.

 

Bad fielders are rarely as bad as the fans think and good ones are rarely as good as they think, your mind tends to categorize the in between plays that are made or missed based on the fielders reputation.

[JJHardy7]

Mat Gamel is hitting over .370 and has five homers off left-handed pitchers with Milwaukee's Triple-A Louisville club.

 

What happened to the Nashville team? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

Mat Gamel is hitting over .370 and has five homers off left-handed pitchers with Milwaukee's Triple-A Louisville club.

 

What happened to the Nashville team? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

It's hard keeping track of all those towns west of the Hudson River so why even bother.

[rluzinski]

UZR simply measures the numbers of balls in a defender's zone (breaking that zone into several smaller ones) that are converted into outs and compares that to league average. It takes into account how hard the ball was hit (in a rough sense) and where the ball was hit (a ball in the holes are rarely converted into outs, so the defender isn't expected to convert it).

 

UZR ignores double play situations (only cares about the 1 out) and it doesn't measure the scoop skill of a 1B. A good or bad 1B can help or hurt the infielder.s numbers. A fast, aggressive CFer can hurt the corner OFers numbers. One season's worth of data really isn't very much. There lot's of issues, certainly. Still a wonderful resource to have. You just have to understand how to use it.

 

And having a stat that misinforms is worse than no stat

[logan82]

I've always been of the opinion that the way metrics like UZR are calculated they measure defensive potential rather than the actual defensive result.

 

I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say, but I believe that UZR only gives credit for turning balls hit into outs. If no out is recorded, no credit is given.

[TheCrew07]

Bad fielders are rarely as bad as the fans think and good ones are rarely as good as they think, your mind tends to categorize the in between plays that are made or missed based on the fielders reputation.

Sure you can treat every missed scoop opportunity equally, that's not really the point that X or I is trying to make. The way Prince flails, sometimes turns his head to the side, and sets up for the ball he doesn't even give himself a chance, he's lucky to even get a glove on the ball. So while a certain percentage will be missed by every 1B, I'd rather have some chance to make a play than no chance. There's the little things like leaving the bag to keep the ball in front of him so runners don't advance on the poor throw that's he's never done consistently. Many of the extra bases on errors are actually Prince's responsibility, but there's simply no way to account for that in scoring, the error goes to the fielder, and there's no calculation for extra bases it cost the team.

 

Prince makes every fielder in the infield worse, he's that bad, and no metric is going to measure it properly at this point in time regardless what you may think.

[TheCrew07]

I've always been of the opinion that the way metrics like UZR are calculated they measure defensive potential rather than the actual defensive result.

 

I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say, but I believe that UZR only gives credit for turning balls hit into outs. If no out is recorded, no credit is given.

I posted the rough range calculation for UZR in the statistical analysis forum, but UZR actually gives positive credit in the range calculation for errors because the fielder got to the ball(regardless of converting an out), and deducts the errors in the fielding portion when it figures the average plays made in each zone. The infomration is somewhat old... 2003 or 2004 I think... so the calculations may have been updated since, but I don't think the methodology would significantly change.

[Never Outhustled]

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, I'd like to go back the thread topic, and re-ask this:

 

Heres my major issue with the bench. The Brewers face a LHSP tonight. If Braun isn't available, who starts in LF? Nelson and Duffy can't even hit RHP, and one of them is going to start in LF versus a LHP? I think the Brewers really errored in spring training not getting MaGehee reps in the OF. He hasn't played the position as a pro, but he did play the OF in college.

[JJHardy7]

X, you've already stated that a few posts above. I don't think it's a worry unless Braun is out for awhile.

[Teatoe993]

Maybe Gallardo could play left field tonight. Oh wait. He has to pitch.

[logan82]

As long as the errors are figured back into the equation as a negative, I don't think that UZR is as bad as you seem to think. I also think you are ignoring the fact that many people look at a few different defensive stats for each player, not just UZR. When a few different defensive measures seem to agree where a player ranks it is probably safe to say that player is around that level of defense.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not ignoring other metrics and that really wasn't the point of my post... UZR/150 was used... therefore I reasoned that Gamel would be bad, but not historically bad like Braun was and why that would be. I merely commented that I feel players were being rated on what they could do, not what they actually did when the range factor is being calculated. I also threw out TotalZone's rating of Gamel from last season cause that's pretty much all we have for MiLB players other than fielding percentage(thanks Battlekow for the original linkage).

 

Instead of blindly defending the metric, consider what I'm actually trying to say... and just because Gamel would likely be very bad instead of historically bad doesn't mean I'm saying he should stay at 3B.

 

X has made some excellent points about the bench and Gamel's bat. We had this discussion on the minor league forum already, Gamel would be a 3 win player with the bat tomorrow if they wanted him, maybe better, it's very difficult to sit on offense of that caliber for an extended period of time, especially if you're losing offensive production with Braun on the DL. If one of the starters isn't sitting, we have no RH OF option off the bench, and if Braun were to hit the DL, we have no RH options period. Gillespie is about all we have, and he's struggling as he gets his feet wet in AAA right now.

[strawbossisevil]

Ender:

 

Gamel has not be HISTORICALLY bad at 3b. He has been bad, but nowhere near as bad a Braun was. Gamel actually has very positive range numbers and he gets to a lot of balls, which suggests that despite his errors, he´s really not as bad a fielder as some like make him out to be.

 

X and Crew 07:

 

I see no way that Gamel is moved off of 3b during the season. None. The Brewers see him as the only advanced prospect at his position (whereas we have a number of solid OF prospects in the chain) so he is going to have all year to work on the 3b position.

 

And pointing out that Hart is only going to be here one year longer, doesn´t reflect the fact that a year is a long time in the baseball world. In one year a prospect can move two levels. It´s why getting the most years out of a solid player at a position is so vitally important.

 

Not to mention that filling an OF position with a solid bat (via FA if necessary) is a lot easier than finding a plus hitting 3rd baseman (as evidenced by the Brewers lack of ability in finding a good 3b since Cirillo departed to Seattle).

[TheCrew07]

I highly doubt that they move him from 3B during the season as I've said numerous times. I don't think this is an issue so much with Gamel/Braun/Weeks/Fielder/whomever as it is an organizational flaw in developing defense or moving players to a spot where they will be successful. For example, putting LaPorta in the OF made no sense, he's a 1B/DH, always has been, maybe it worked for him and increased his trade value I don't know. Hart bounced around multiple positions, Braun had to pickup a new position in MLB, Weeks has taken YEARS to approach average, Fielder... well he'll likely never be average despite being a pretty good athlete for his size.

 

Nothing in Gamel's lines suggest he's a platoon player, he could hit LHP and provide ROY quality offense tomorrow if the organization had been more aggressive and moved him to a different position (regardless of need at 3B). I understand what's best for the team is Mat staying at 3B, but that's not what I'm speaking to, nor is that X's point about the bench and the lack of options against LHP.

 

If the organization is/was adamant about Weeks playing 2B and Gamel at 3B, then get them the help they need early. Go to them in the off-season to work with them, or bring them to AZ on the team's dime, it doesn't matter. Just get them the support they need to develop their game to the best of their potential. Weeks defense was never addressed until MLB (and no roving infield instruction just doesn't cut it) and Gamel never got help till AA when he finally made some progress. Constant repetition is the only way to relearn movements, telling someone the right way they should do it isn't going to get it done and never has.

[strawbossisevil]

How much would it cost to have fielding instructors on staff to address every single player with defensive deficiencies from rookie ball on though? I think part of the reason they wait until around AA is because they can´t really determine before that point, those who look to be major league caliber players. I imagine they don´t have the resources to try to address every defensive issue in the system, and it would be a waste to do so, especially since the majority of people in the system will never make it to the big leagues.

[TheCrew07]

What's an extra coach cost at every level? I have no idea what those guys make but it can't be much, maybe an extra 250,000 combined for every level? They don't know who's going to make it, but how can they wait to develop defense until they are sure when a player hits AA? Why wouldn't we want Lawrie busting his hump right now, instead of waiting? There's just not enough time... Identifying players who need the extra attention wouldn't be that hard, hell we can do that sitting on our butts typing messages on a forum. Every player needs the daily instruction and my guess is that other than taking ground balls during BP (if they do in the minors?) not much else happens, and that the coaches don't have time to individually break down and get meaningful work in with all their players.

 

The Brewers depend so heavily on the farm system that I don't think they can follow the same model as other teams, they need to be ahead of the curve and maximize the value of the studs they develop for the short window (compared to the player's career as a whole) that they have them. Repeatedly churning out players with defensive deficiencies diminishes their overall value while they are with the Crew, especially in the early years, as I hope they improve the longer they stay.

 

Injury treament/prevention and defensive development seem to be 2 areas where the Brewers could greatly improve as an organization.

[endaround]

Its not every player. The Brewers know who they are targeting as real prospects and guys who are filler/getting their college coaching resume together.

[strawbossisevil]

I think your estimate comes in on the very low side. My guess would be a million + per year. Plus, the trouble is at the lower levels, nearly every player has defensive issues that need to be ironed out (although by the time they get to AA, those that don´t have the bats to continue get ironed out). You would need two or three coaches at each of the initial levels to get them the time needed for each player.

 

The biggest issue isn´t with the minor league part of the system (since we do things essentially in a manor similar to the rest of the league if not more than most at the upper levels), the problem comes in our drafting, where our scouts seem to place a value more heavily on players with offensive rather than defensive polish.

 

Is Gamel´s problem related to poor coaching? Or just being behind the eight ball when he got to the minors in the first place? I would guess that the second is much more true than the first.

[TheCrew07]

You think MiLB coaches make 200,000 a piece?

 

They aren't going to be able to draft perfect players, especially drafting at the bottom of the 1st round, they are going to have to develop guys. They've done an excellent job targeting impact bats, I wouldn't want that to change at all, keep those impact bats rolling in.

 

They could do more in the off-season as well... send a coach to the player so it doesn't cost the kid anything, or bring the top prospects in for extra defensive work... I'm not advocating one thing over another, I just believe they have to do a better job putting players in the best position or committing the resources the players need to make it at their current position.

 

What they've done hasn't worked defensively.

[strawbossisevil]

When you factor in all of the costs related to adding a coach (looking beyond his base salary), yes, I do.

 

Are there any other clubs out there that do the things you are suggesting the Brewers do? Also, is there such a thing as a good "rest period" where players such as Gamel need time off, especially after playing in Winter League ball? I would think that the players need some time off to let their arms rest for a few months.