Capellan for Milledge

[don1481]

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They won't do that anyway. They want a name, a stud.

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As the article I linked to above said:

 

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Mets GM Omar Minaya is hoping to add a starter before the trading deadline. He sees two possibilities: getting a guy who has gotten off to a poor start and needs a change of scenery, or trading from a surplus in one area for something in another team's area of surplus.

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I'm sure he knows that we'd not give up Sheets or Capuano for Milledge... but he DOES want a starter that can help with his rotation. Vargas would be the "now" guy and ZachJack would be the "later." I'm guessing that the Mets'll take anyone who's producing - remember, they're not the Yankees... they actually care about productive talenthttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[AJ Love]

I think the Brewers need their starting pitcher depth (especially with Sheets under contract for only one more year) more than they need an extremely talented but unproven Outfielder with (alleged) attitude problems.

 

You can never, ever, have too much pitching.

 

Now I suppose if the Mets were foolish enough to take Zach Jackson for Lastings Milledge, we'd be all over it. But no way do I trade Bush or Vargas or Villanueava for that kid

[don1481]

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But no way do I trade Bush or Vargas or Villanueava for that kid

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I agree with Bush and Villanueva... however, Vargas makes much more sense.

 

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You can never, ever, have too much pitching.

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Agreed, but if we're in a situation like we are for next year (Jenkins should not be around, Mench is not a full time player, so who do we play in LF?) we should be able to trade from a position where we do have a bit of depth to fill a "need." And yes - Milledge is a sizable upgrade over Gabe Gross/TGJ right now.

[AJ Love]

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I agree with Bush and Villanueva... however, Vargas makes much more sense.

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I actually think Vargas is a better pitcher than Bush. Not sure what their contract ramifications are though.

 

As far as Outfield next season: Hall is a given obviously, and we're counting on Hart to show he can be an every day player. I actually think there is a chance that either Jenkins or Mench will be back, and I'm one of the few here who think that Gwynn can be a starter eventually.

 

If there is one thing we've seen from Doug Melvin, it is that he has a capability for stocking the team with Outfielders.

 

Villanueva and Gallardo are a huge part of the future of the Brewers, no way do I trade either one of them... I could see trading Jackson and Sarfate and Gross, if the trade makes sense.

[don1481]

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I actually think Vargas is a better pitcher than Bush. Not sure what their contract ramifications are though.

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Vargas is already in the middle of his arby time. Bush hasn't hit arby yet. That's a BIG factor in this.

 

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If there is one thing we've seen from Doug Melvin, it is that he has a capability for stocking the team with Outfielders.

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Like whom? Mench and his OPS that is dropping faster than an anvil headed towards a cartoon's head? Gross, who, in all honesty, is a good #4/platoon OF? Gwynn, who is probably at least another full season away from being close to a starter? If anything, Melvin's shown better luck at getting nuggets and then flipping them.

 

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Villanueva and Gallardo are a huge part of the future of the Brewers, no way do I trade either one of them

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Where did Gallardo get into this discussion? Trading him would be stupid - especially in a trade for Milledge.

 

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I actually think there is a chance that either Jenkins or Mench will be back

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Jenkins, possibly, but Mench should be gone. Either way - we'd need at LEAST someone to fill in Mench's role in the platoon, which would be Milledge... and someone to take over full-time in '09... which, again, would be Milledge.

[shelmark]

I just don't see us trading away any pitching this year. It is simply too valuable, we can get by with Gross, Hall, and Hart next year if we wish. Throw Gwynn, Rottino, and Nix into the mix and we are ok there. On the other hand, I am absolutely scared to death of not having pitching depth and having guys like Winkelsas on our roster.

[don1481]

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Throw Gwynn, Rottino, and Nix into the mix and we are ok there

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Really?? IMO Nix, if he doesn't make it back up to MIL after his rehab stint, should be outrighted off of the 40. The only one of that group that I'd be ok with in even a part-time starting role would be TGJ.

 

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On the other hand, I am absolutely scared to death of not having pitching depth and having guys like Winkelsas on our roster.

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I don't think, even if we have injuries this year, that we'll be nearly as desperate as needing Winkelsas or some other guy capable of receiving a daily Order of the Clubbed Seal on the big league roster.

 

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I just don't see us trading away any pitching this year

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Because of the worries we've had in the past? If we are serious about winning and being able to sustain it, we need to shore up our OF long-term. As I've said, TGJ, Rottino, and Nix are not the answer for LF. And I don't really think Gross is, either. If it requires us trading away Doug Davis the Second (Vargas) plus a SP prospect that has already been passed by Yo and will probably be passed by others soon, so be it.

[AJ Love]

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I am absolutely scared to death of not having pitching depth and having guys like Winkelsas on our roster.

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Exactly. Me too. We are one starting pitcher injury away from having to press Gallardo into action earlier than we want or having to use Villanueva as a starter thus having to rely on someone like Dessens or Spurling or Zach Jackson heavily in long relief.

 

If anything, I think we should be buyers for relief pitching/long reliever. Our whole season is relatively precarious based on counting on our Starters stay healthy. I remind you of just how valuable an All-Star Outfielder was last season when we had injuries to our starting pitchers and we had to count heavily on AAAA arms.

 

While Milledge has potential, I think that Carlos Lee is more valuable than Milledge right now, and right now we are trying to gain a playoff spot. Thus, again, I value starting pitching right now more than another potential Outfielder who might rake in '08 and might not

[AJ Love]

I know Milledge has raked in the Minors, was a 1st round pick and is only 22, but in 169 at bats in MLB, he has a .678 OPS. He is definitely no Prince Fielder in terms of being MLB ready at an early age. Will he eventually develop? Probably. Corey Hart is, granted, a few years older but had a .796 OPS last season at the age of 24 in 237 at bats.

 

Tony Gwynn is more MLB ready than Milledge is, apparently, right now.

 

I thought our days of trading MLB starters for prospects was over. Milledge is a big time prospect, but still just a prospect. And then there is the alleged attitude thing.

[shelmark]

Sorry Don, despite your insight I would still prefer to hold on to my pitchers for long-term security, not some supposed phenom that has done nothing but play in NY to earn the hype. You don't need every outfield position to be a stud when you have a good hitting infield. You do, on the other hand, need good pitching. I stand by my original opinion.

[BillScottCanRake]

some supposed phenom that has done nothing but play in NY to earn the hype.

 

Regardless of whether or not you'd make a trade like this, I am pretty sure characterizing Millege that way isn't fair. He's a prospect because of his talent, not where he plays.

 

He might well never live up to his billing, but he's got the tools to do so. This isn't Antone Williamson.

[don1481]

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Sorry Don, despite your insight I would still prefer to hold on to my pitchers for long-term security

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If you're talking about:

 

1. Sheets

2. Cappy

3. Suppan

4. Bush

5. Gallardo

6. Villanueva

7. Inman

8. Parra

 

and so forth, I'm completely in agreement. Vargas can go. Already arby-eligible and far too inconsistent compared to 1-6 on that list.

 

IF we can get a long-term solution for one of our long-term holes by trading him, I'd say do so.

[dadofandrew]

Trading Vargas would weaken the major league staff, as bringing up Cappy or Sarfate would be a downward move from Claudio. We are well past the days of trading proven talent for kids, with an exception being a Carlos Lee type player who is about to leave.

[don1481]

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We are well past the days of trading proven talent for kids, with an exception being a Carlos Lee type player who is about to leave.

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Are we? Here's the issue:

 

Vargas is already making 2.5 M this year. Next year, expect that to go around 5 M. 5 M that could be much better-spent. Even withouth Jenkins' contract on teh books, we need more room to keep key people. Vargas is not key.

 

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Trading Vargas would weaken the major league staff, as bringing up Cappy or Sarfate would be a downward move from Claudio.

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False. Vargas is only going a little over 5 IP/start this season. Putting someone else who can go a little longer into games would lighten the load on the pen.

 

Al, a rotation of

 

Sheets

Capuano

Suppan

Bush

Yo

 

outweighs significantly a rotation of

 

Sheets

Capuano

Suppan

Bush

Vargas

 

You are losing nothing in your pen from this trade, as no ML talent is traded outside of Vargas.

You can *then* flip Mench for, oh, MR help, allowing us to break in Milledge slowly in a platoon with Jenkins.

 

AND the combined savings of bringing in Milledge?

 

~8M for Jenkins

~4M for Mench

~5M for Vargas

 

That's $17 M saved, folks, for use towards keeping our "key" people. AND we have a potential answer in LF long-term.

 

We may be winners nowadays but we still have to think long-term budget implications.

[pogokat]

Don, I appreciate your vigor, but Vargas has excelled this year...for a fifth starter, 6 excellent innings is phenomenal...he's been great so far, so a trading him at any costs attitude seems odd at the moment..

 

sure, Yo will hopefully be good, but riding a full season of Vargas and then trading him would be a better deal...besides, keeping Vargas would allow us to move someone better than Cappellan to the pen like Vargas, or Dave Bush...

[don1481]

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Don, I appreciate your vigor, but Vargas has excelled this year...for a fifth starter, 6 excellent innings is phenomenal...

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Pogo, if he was making 6 IP/start that's one thing. He's not even making 5 IP/start. 7 starts, 34 IP... roughly 80 pitches/start.

 

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so a trading him at any costs attitude seems odd at the moment.

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At any costs? Did I say the guy was a bum; let's junk him? No. I'm saying this is a deal that gives us a chance to find a long-term solution to a hole that will surface after this season.

 

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keeping Vargas would allow us to move someone better than Cappellan to the pen like Vargas, or Dave Bush

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And once again, dollars come into play here. We're still subject to a budget. We have to be realistic long-term here. Vargas will probably make $5 M next year in arby. That's far too much for us to keep him around.

 

And getting rid of Vargas allows us to then trade Mench for, oh, middle relief help. We've then dumped $9 million through those two trades. Salary dump? No. Not when you're trading wisely to fill in other holes from your surplus.

 

So your rotation after this is:

Sheets

Capuano

Suppan

Bush

Yo

 

Pen:

Villy

Dessens (sigh)

Shouse

Wise

MR Help (from Mench trade)

Turnbow

Cordero

 

Outrighted: Spurling.

 

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sure, Yo will hopefully be good, but riding a full season of Vargas and then trading him would be a better deal

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Sure, but if something like a Milledge IS available NOW, I say go for it. The long-term implications - namely, sustaining this success - are worth it.

 

EDIT: I'm going to revise the trade to be Vargas for Milledge, straight-up.

[trwi7]

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He's not even making 5 IP/start.

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He's making 5.1 IP/start. You're counting his 2 inning relief appearance in April against Chicago as a start.

 

 

He's gone 5, 6, 4, 5, 6 and 6 innings this year in his starts.

[pogokat]

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Sure, but if something like a Milledge IS available NOW, I say go for it. The long-term implications - namely, sustaining this success - are worth it.

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i disagree with this...

 

1. vargas won't get us milledge

 

2. milledge is overrated

 

3. yo is 21, and there's little need to throw him to the wlaves right now

 

4. trade mench, sure, but he's not going to bring Cheap middle relief help

 

5. Joe Thatcher, Manny Parra, Robert Hinton, and to a lesser extent Cappellan and Sarfate are there if the team needs middle relief help...

 

i think you are just suggesting moves to make moves...

[sbrylski]

1.) I agree with Don that Vargas is not a lock to be around here next season. Sure, he's doing fine now, but his preformance wasn't expected to be this good. He'll surely regress. With Gallardo and Villy cruising, I can definately see shipping Vargas and his $5ish million dollar contract out before Opening Day 2008. Not necessarily at the deadline though, especially if he does continue to exceed expectations. More likely to happen in the offseason, possibly to help replace a departed Jenkins/Mench or both.

 

2.) Pogo, what are "wlaves"? Is that a type of wolf? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[dadofandrew]

Yo has not done a thing in the bigs, and very little in AAA. Assuming he'd do better than Vargas is pie-in-the-sky.

[bullox]

Pogo, what are "wlaves"?

 

Lava waves, duh. As in "Don't throw him to the lava waves."

 

Sheesh.

[sbrylski]

Yo has not done a thing in the bigs, and very little in AAA. Assuming he'd do better than Vargas is pie-in-the-sky.

 

That's a pretty pessimistic attitude. I'm assuming your claim that Yo hasn't done anything in AAA is based on smaller sample? Vargas has had 28 good innings this year. His career ERA is 4.82. He should finish much closer to that than his current number. If Gallardo doesn't post a 4.82 ERA next year I would be fairly dissapointed.

 

If you are talking only second half this year, I say 50/50 Gallardo outpreforms Vargas. (Not his current production, but what should be expected). That's hardly "pie-in-the-sky".

[paul253]

That's a pretty pessimistic attitude.

 

i dont think its a pessimistic attitude, i think its the truth. We all know Gallardo is going to be good, but we dont know hes going to be good right away. Everyone thought Alex Gordon would be killing MLB pitching but he hasnt done anything. Lets hold onto Vargas until he stops pitching as well as he is. You couldnt ask for anything better from a 5th starter. We are 6-0 in his starts so why trade him? not to mention, what happens if a starter or two goes down? if we trade vargas we are two injuries away from having elmer dessens starting games.

[sbrylski]

For the record, I think it's a better idea to trade Vargas next offseason.

[TooLiveBrew]

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Don, I appreciate your vigor, but Vargas has excelled this year...for a fifth starter, 6 excellent innings is phenomenal...he's been great so far, so a trading him at any costs attitude seems odd at the moment...

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Listen, I'm a big Don-fan, but I have to agree here. Vargas has been more than I'd expected thus far. Will his numbers look more like his career stats by the end of the year? Perhaps. But Vargas looks to be a bit of a late-bloomer, IMO, so I'll hold off judgment until later.

 

For now, I simply sit back and say, "Nice 5th starter, Doug E. Doug!" I saw Vargas pitch in person this year, and was impressed overall. Sure, he got himself into a jam or two, but worked (and by "worked" I mean "struck") his way out of them!

 

I worried ever since we acquired Claudio that he'd be an albatross for this team, but it's been quite the opposite. Also, people here are right to be cautious in projecting YoGa, but I think it's pretty safe to say he could post a 4.50 or lower ERA given a full-ish season.

 

There is simply no reason to tinker with this team right now, and trying to predict potential problems is taking shots in the dark. Don, I'm with your strategy for constantly looking to improve the team for now & the long-term (and so is D.M.), but I can't get on board with trading Vargas. He's been a great addition to this squad, and seems to fit in just fine with everyone else