Swine Flu

[Patrick425]

Thought I would start a thread on this. Just reading an article in JS online regarding a flu outbreak in 1918 (Will swine flu follow pattern of deadly 1918 pandemic?). Found it interesting. However, there seems to be a possible typo:

 

In a typical flu season around 36,000 Americans die. Most flu viruses infect between 5% and 20% of the population, and less than 1% of those cases die.

First of all..really? 36,000? Seems like a lot. Then if you do the math. 20% of 3 million is 600,000. 1% of 600,000 is 6,000. Something doesn't add up there.

Edit: Nevermind...300 million, not 3 million...DUH.

 

(fixed link --1992)

[trwi7]

They were talking to a doctor from Wheaton-Franciscan on the radio this morning and he says this is basically what the peak of flu season in winter is and it's a mild strain of H1N1.

 

In related news, it's now in Waukesha County with two probable cases in Waukesha and one in Oconomowoc. Oconomowoc high school and two intermediate schools have been closed through next Friday.

[datrain711]

I work in delafield and everyone here is freaking out about it.

 

my question is this: why would they cancel the next 5 1/2 days of school before they even have confirmation that it is the swine flu? It seems like a bit of an overreaction.

[Invader3K]

The media is really being irresponsible and over blowing this thing, in my opinion. It's just something that's getting people over anxious, when the chances of it actually affecting the average person are probably pretty remote.

[Brian the Automator]

The media is really being irresponsible and over blowing this thing, in my opinion. It's just something that's getting people over anxious, when the chances of it actually affecting the average person are probably pretty remote.

Normally, I'd agree with you, but my wife's on steroids for an adrenal insufficiency, and she's immuno-compromised. It's a pretty scary thing for some people.

 

EDIT: but on the funny side:

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/91515b489fd4481ecc3d245b78dcb4d50dd9dfe.jpg

[trwi7]

my question is this: why would they cancel the next 5 1/2 days of school before they even have confirmation that it is the swine flu? It seems like a bit of an overreaction.

 

They do two tests. If after one test it looks like someone has it, they do a further, more in-depth test to confirm it, but it's usually pretty clear they have it after the first test.

[hawing]

The media is really being irresponsible and over blowing this thing, in my opinion. It's just something that's getting people over anxious, when the chances of it actually affecting the average person are probably pretty remote.

Media hype does fuel anxiety. Ask me how I felt in the first month after 9/11/2001. (Actually, you probably don't want to know, but it changed my outlook on both national and local news.) Among other things, it has my mother wondering if it's such a good idea for me to go to Brewer games...since they're in Milwaukee.

 

The schools' reaction is bound to be based at least partly on the fear of litigation, in case they don't respond quickly or strongly enough to a potential flu threat.

 

I think the best course of action lies somewhere between sticking your head in the sand and assuming that nothing can happen to you, and totally freaking out and assuming you're doomed. I'm not wearing a mask to Sunday's game (I don't think...), but I brought my little pocket size hand sanitizer to Thursday's game, and probably will again on Sunday.

 

Wash your hands often, stay the heck home if you start to feel crummy, and contact a doctor if you get to feeling really crummy.

[trwi7]

stay the heck home if you start to feel crummy

It amazes me how many people still don't do this.

 

Also, if you're going to cough or sneeze, don't use your hand, use your elbow.

[homer]

Bird Flu

SARS

Mad Cow Disease

Swine Flu

 

 

I really don't think it's a big deal. There have probably been more deaths due to regular influenza since this thing started than to swine flu.

 

In any event, I will not let it get in the way of burrito appreciation month.

[DHonks]

my district informed us of Maricopa County's plan (that's where Phoenix is). If one case is confirmed, that school is closed for 7 days because the virus does not survive without a host for more than a 2-4 days.

Really this flu is following a bit of a similar path to 1918, and they're afraid because it's highly contagious. I have relatives that are immuno-suppressed, and it's an issue. The more kids/people that get this strain, the more likely we are to have a mutated form develop that is more deadly (much like what happened in 1918). They want to limit exposure.

[craigharmann]

There are school districts just north of San Antonio that are closed through May 11th due to this. People are very concerned, and I guess you should be, but I think you just have to take extra precautions, like wash your hands, don't shake hands with someone and stick your hands in your eyes or your mouth. However, I've been a lot more careful, with a 2 and a half week old baby, because I may be OK, but I might pass something on to her. So I'm making sure to take all of the extra precautions possible.

[FVBrewerFan]

Media hype and federal government hype. Didn't want this to turn political, but it's just a fact. When President Obama makes a big deal out of it, the media follows. And, as usual, the lemmings follow. Any flu is potentially dangerous for infants, seniors, and people who have certain health issues. Then again, the common cold kills peole every year.

[BuckyBrewer61]

The swine flu is not some nasty mutant virus that will make your eyes explode and your heart fall out. The trouble with it is that it is highly contagious and it is a new strain of flu that has never been seen by the human population before, therefore nobody is immune to it. The flu is a nasty little virus that is often shrugged off because it is so common, but it can be very troublesome in people with weaker immune systems (e.g. infants, elderly, HIV positive individuals, people on immunosuppresive therapy).

 

In small, local outbreaks, we have resources to control the swine flu and help those that contract it. The concern is the possibility of a nationwide and global pandemic, in which case it would be impossible to supply everyone with adequate treatment. That said, the 1918 pandemic killed about 7-8% of the people it infected, and that was upwards of 15-20 times more harmful than many of the smaller flu epidemics we've seen since then. So swine flu is far from a death sentence; and, assuming we control it (especially in this country) we have resources to treat it. The fear is of it spreading out of control, and it is a valid fear, so that is why everyone is being so cautious.

 

I'm a med student/science geek and could go on for a while about this, so if anyone has any questions and wants to post them here I'd be happy to answer them.

 

P.S. Wash you hands!

[sgtcluels]

Omg BTA.. thats the best poster ever!

[DHonks]

DocBucky, it only killed 7-8% of those infected? 40-50 million dead seems much higher than 7-8%. I know that in 1918, the strain in the spring was VERY mild (like this), but it's rebounded version in the autumn was the one that helped end WWI and led to 40-50 million deaths.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Estimates on how many people were infected with the flu in 1918 are around 1 billion people (well over half of the world's population of 1.8 billion!). Now, just because they were infected doesn't mean that they got sick, just like many of us probably got the normal flu this year and never noticed it or went to the doctor to treat it. So yes, the mortality rate amongst those who had symptoms is higher than what I had said earlier, however the mortality rate amongst those infected was anywhere from about 3-10% (depending on which numbers you want to pick).

 

And yes, the 1918 pandemic got worse in the fall as this is the typical start to flu season. It's not that it was necessarily more mild as that it wasn't spreading as easily/quickly. It's much easier for the flu to survive/spread in the fall and winter (hence "flu season"), and therefore there have already been preliminary efforts set in place to begin sequencing this virus and developing a vaccine to be available before flu season rolls around again in a few months. People that are much smarter than I am have expressed a great deal of hope that our government/public health officials will continue pushing the vaccine even if things calm down in the coming weeks.

 

Also, the strain from 1918 was, in fact, more virulent (harsher) than the "typical" flu, leading the the deaths of many young adults which is much less common in normal flu strains. The death of many young adults in Mexico has raised some concerns that this strain may also be more virulent, but recent info from America may suggest otherwise. In the end there's just not enough data yet to know for sure.

[SoCalBrewfan]

40-50 million dead seems much higher than 7-8%.

 

Well, multiply the death toll by the inverse of the rate, and you get 500+ million people infected. Sounds like a lot, but that's one reason why that flu was so deadly...I have seen estimates that almost half the people in the world at that time were infected when all was said and done. So a flu that spreads widely can be very dangerous even if it's not terribly lethal in terms of the fraction of people who die. The second reason for concern, and an early reason to draw parallels to 1918, is the death of young adults in Mexico. There are theories about how that happened in 1918, involving a specific reaction of the immune system. Such a 'feature' in this virus, along with the apparently rapid spread and the increasing amount of world travel, could well have led to a really bad thing.

 

Somebody who claimed to be knowledgeable said to me that the WHO pandemic warning stages are somewhat like the tornado watch / warning thing that Midwesterners know all too well. (And though I've been away for a while, that's still how I think of myself.) For someone who is not familiar, even a tornado watch sounds scary, but we know it's a signal to be vigilant and award. A tornado warning means you should take certain steps and be ready if the real thing comes. Most tornado warnings are non-events, but if you're smart you take them seriously. Similarly, while this flu might be a minor one, there are enough warning signs that governments need to take steps, making sure their plans, inventories, etc are up to date. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[crewcrazy]

While the media and government may be blowing it out of proportion, it's probably better to be over-vigilant when it comes to this stuff, rather than just ignoring it and then wondering where things went wrong if tons of people start dying from it.

 

To the average healthy American, this is probably no big deal. To people with immune deficiencies or the elderly (or the extremely young, like we saw with the first US death -- a 23 month old baby), I can see the concern. I can also see the concern economically with other countries telling their citizens not to visit the United States right when tourism season is about to kick off in places like New York.

[SoCalBrewfan]

While the media and government may be blowing it out of proportion, it's probably better to be over-vigilant when it comes to this stuff, rather than just ignoring it and then wondering where things went wrong if tons of people start dying from it.

 

I would argue that while the media deserve some criticism, and individual people are reacting in ways that are absolutely silly in my opinion, criticism of the government response at this point is misplaced. It is one of the purposes of government, at all levels, to be prepared for situations like this, and they are doing their job by making preparations and passing on information as it becomes known. They must prepare, be proactive rather than reactive, be vigilant and follow up on potential leads, and be ready for the worst. That's why we have the CDC, and why we participate in international organizations like the WHO. As noted, the consequences of not being prepared are potentially very bad, and there is inevitably a time period when no one can know how bad a particular outbreak might be. If you wait until things get bad, it might already be too late.

[DHonks]

I'm glad they're being overly careful with things. My understanding is that viruses (is that the proper form??) can evolve rather quickly. For instance, it could potentially bad if somehow this strain merged with the Avian flu of a few years ago. That strain killed VERY high rates, but was not possible to be passed from human to human.

 

My fear right now is that this strain could find it's way to Africa or Southeast Asia where people living with malnutrition or in areas of high instances of HIV/AIDS. It could wipe out millions in such environments.

[jaybird2001wi]

I am no biologist (I failed the intro class in college) but the way they confirm these cases is the local Health Departments send the strains (or samples in a petri dish) and send them to the CDC where they expose the bacteria or strain to a high temperature and it takes roughly a day or two for it to grow. If it shows any type of development or deformity in the incubator, that is how they confirm the case.

But anyhow, there are just a shade of under 150 confirmed cases in the U.S. where the population is 300 million. The percentage is extremely low, but the reason for the urgency is the spread to different regions of the United States. With confirmed cases now in Illinois, there is now a question of whether it will hit Wisconsin. The same can be said about other neighboring states where there will be questions.

[DougJones43]

stay the heck home if you start to feel crummy

It amazes me how many people still don't do this.

 

Unfortunately, not everyone has the luxury to do this. Many employers are very intolerant of missing any work, even due to illness. This is particularly true for anybody who's a temp somewhere. Somebody misses a couple of days, the company decides that person is unreliable or unmotivated, and they're gone. I saw it all the time at more than one of my former workplaces. The last place I worked considered anything over 2 absences in a year as "excessive."

[strawbossisevil]

Well then take necessary precautions to prevent passing it on (wearing a mask, f.e.). No matter what just going about things like normal when you are sick is rude and out of place.

 

I heard (the Mexican papers, and through WHO announcements) that this flu is attacking those who are in their 20s to 50s, so it isn´t necessarily attacking the weak, as indicated earlier in the thread, but the healthy part of society.

[mtrebs]

It figures that the first time I have a vacation scheduled to a foreign country that a pandemic going wild. My wife and I leave for a cruise on 5/9 and we were scheduled to go to Grand Cayman, Cozumel, Belize, and Honduras. Cozumel was officially cancelled by Carnival today. I suppose I'd rather not get sick but it's too bad that it just happens during my vacation time...

[trwi7]

With confirmed cases now in Illinois, there is now a question of whether it will hit Wisconsin.

It already hit Wisconsin. Even before it hit Illinois.