Is it time to send Nelson to AAA for some AB's

[TooLiveBrew]

That's possible but there are many players that would rather retire before they accept a bench role at league minimum. And my gut tells me that Edmonds is prepared to retire.

 

Where are the stats to back this up?!? This isn't rluz... it's an imposter!

 

 

I agree that Edmonds will probably wind up accepting that his only employment is as a 4th OF, so hopefully we'd be able to make some room for him on the 25-man at that time. However, Edmonds isn't a good fielder anymore, and obviously his bat isn't going to be getting better, so I really don't see him as that much of an upgrade over Nelson (even in 2009)... and I'm especially opposed to adding Edmonds if it meant losing Nelson.

[brucrustu]

That for Nelson to join Nashville he must be DFA'd. And I would think Jack Z would love to have a LH 1B/LF bat in AAA for injury concerns (when you have Branyan and Griffey...) and it would give Nelson a great shot at real playing time, something less likely in Milwaukee.

 

I think actually, Nelson could just refuse the assignment and become a FA.

Why can he become a FA?

Is there a number of times DFA'd rule or is it service time?

The big unit on am 620 was promoting calling up Gamel and Escobar to replace Nelson and Hardy because they "aren't getting it done". When I called in to argue that this is a dumb stance because Hardy is a top five short stop that is slumping and Nelson could become a FA, the call screener told me that they knew Nelson would be DFA'd but he would clear waivers and be forced to report to AAA. I said I thought he could be a FA and the call screener became agitated and sort of yelled at me then hung up on me. (bcs looks at bill and his call screener) You two do this for a living!? Jeez. And all of that without me mentioning how insane it is to promote on the biggest am radio station in the state that Escobar should replace Hardy due to lack of OFFENSIVE production.

[Fatter than Joey]

the call screener told me that they knew Nelson would be DFA'd but he would clear waivers and be forced to report to AAA. I said I thought he could be a FA and the call screener became agitated and sort of yelled at me then hung up on me.

 

The call screener was wrong -- A player can be outrighted w/o his permission only once, Nelson was outrighted 2 seasons ago -- If the Brewers DFA'd Nelson....

 

1.) Nelson could tell the Brewers to pound sand and become a FA

2.) Nelson could be claimed when put on waivers by another team.

 

or the Brewers could send him to AAA, if the above 2 things do not happen.

 

This is sort of like Turnbow's situation last season. -- The difference between the 2 situations is that Turnbow never had been outrighted, BUT he had 3+ years of service, which meant he could have told the Brewers to pound sand, however it would have cost him his salary.

 

Nelson has next to zero service time -- so that does not get him leverage -- what gives him leverage is that he has already been outrighted once.

[joepepsi]

At this time of year when teams are still assessing the talent they have on the 40 man roster, Nelson could sneak through waivers and have a tough time finding a team if he declared FA.

 

But you don't risk losing a player in April after only 16 plate appearances. Right now they can afford to carry him and hope he starts hitting in the next month. He's a lefty who's shown good power and plate discipline in the minors. It's worth giving him 150-200 major league plate appearances to see what he can do. I'm envisioning a game winning ph double or homer in a couple games against the Cubs and Cards late in the heat of summer.....

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, me too joepepsi. Nelson at the plate reminds me a bit of Fielder in his rookie season. I think Brad's just pressing right now, and everyone knows that when that happens, the player tends to not even look like himself. Corey Hart's second half of 2008 comes to mind there too. That one big hit is sure to come, and probably will after a couple 'meaningless' singles or so.

 

 

EDIT: To a certain extent, it actually doesn't help things that Brad is such a talented hitter. That means Macha has been (correctly) employing him as a PH in higher-leverage situations (runners on base, etc.). Of course I'm sure that's just made Nelson press that much more, since he knows he's good at being the run producing slugger, and wants to hit as well at MLB as he did in AAA.

[monty57]

I agree that Nelson is pressing, and will snap out of it. I just hope he gets his first hit soon to get that monkey off his back. As frustrating as it's been, it's still way too early to give up on someone who's shown that he can be a good hitter.

 

As far as Edmonds, I'd guess that he's waiting for an injury to occur. Right now, he'd have to play a backup role, but if a starter goes down somewhere, Edmonds would likely be an upgrade to most teams' backups. Staying on the market until someone gets hurt gives him the best chance to become a starter.

[rluzinski]

The Big Unit is not only ignorant of the Brewers and baseball, he just isn't a avery smart guy overall. It's embarrassing that he's THE sports guy for the biggest radio station in Wisconsin.

[JoeHova]

Why do people insist on propagating the fallacy that Nelson is a good hitter or that he hit well in AAA? He has a .797 OPS in 369 career games in AAA and a .787 OPS overall in his minor league career. Those marks might be acceptable for a major leaguer (though not for a 1st baseman), but that's not how minor league statistics translate. He's not Prince Fielder, he's not a prospective Prince Fielder replacement, he's not a run producing slugger. We're talking about a guy who is probably about as good a hitter as Laynce Nix, but without any defensive value.

[TheCrew07]

Laynce Nix? You've made your disdain for Nelson abundantly clear the past couple of years, but the dude can hit. No he's not Fielder, but how many players are capable of hitting 50 HR in a season? Brad will do fine once he gets that hit, he won't set the world on fire, but we don't need our bench players to do that.

[rluzinski]

The general sentiment in this thread seems to acknowledge that Nelson is not a future starter in the majors. To act like anyone is comparing him to Fielder in any way is silly, IMO. Some simply don't want to risk losing him because they think his replacement would be worse.

 

The CHONE projection system considers minor league stats and has this line for Nelson in 2009:

 

.254/.349/.407/.756

 

His 0-16 start would hurt that a hair but it's SUCH a small sample that it would not be much. As a starting corner outfielder or 1B, that would be terrible projection but for a pinch hitter/backupn that's not bad (although that represents his expected stats as a stater).

[joepepsi]

Why do people insist on propagating the fallacy that Nelson is a good hitter or that he hit well in AAA? He has a .797 OPS in 369 career games in AAA and a .787 OPS overall in his minor league career.

The point is last year he posted an .860 OPS in AAA. His obp was 100 points higher than his respectable .286 batting average. He put up those kind of numbers in the lower minors way back in 2002 before, as you point out, sort of fumbling around for several seasons. Since he was only 25 last season the hope is he's back on track and can still develop into a useful major league hitter. Granted a 26 year old rookie is hardly a blue chip prospect, but it's worth seeing what he can do, especially when the alternative is just to cut him loose.

[Diskono]

I've wondered how long his wrist held him back. He was never really the same after that, and seemed to wear down quickly. I've heard bits of anecdotal evidence suggesting that some wrist injuries take a long time to heal. He did pretty well last season, which could mean he's finally recovered fully...or it could just mean he was in his 3rd year of AAA. Either way, I'm still excited to see how he does.

[JoeHova]

We all know that plenty of people have claimed in the past that Nelson would be a nice replacement for Fielder if Prince is traded for pitching. There are several threads to that effect.

 

And I think Laynce Nix is a fair comparison. Their minor league numbers are quite similar, with Nix actually having an edge. Nix's career minor league OPS is .827 and his career AAA OPS is .879. Brad takes a few more walks, Laynce hits for a bit more power.

 

and Russ, that's nice and selective of you. ZiPS also takes minor league stats into account and that system has Brad projected at a .714 OPS. I feel that that is a bit generous, but even if we split the difference between the two systems and give him a .735 OPS, that is still terrible for a 1st baseman. That's like an 85 OPS+. Maybe his replacement would be worse, but maybe not (Branyan was available to anyone last year). Also, there are guys who can bring some value in ways that Brad can't, like fielding and baserunning.

[TheCrew07]

What does moving Fielder for pitching have to do with this thread at all? Who even suggested it?

 

You took one comment I made which was effectively "anyone can play 1B better than Fielder and if his offense is even league average the crew would likely be getting more total wins" and you ran with it and shredded Brad, and continue to shred him. I used Nelson as an example, because I really didn't care who the replacement player was, I wasn't comparing offensive statistics between them, in the exact same way I wasn't comparing Escobar's offensive output to Hardy's all off-season. Think what you want to think, believe what you want to believe, but no one in this thread has said anything about Nelson being a full time player. Most are happy he's actually with the big club and are pulling for him to productive and make the most of his opportunity, that's about it.

 

I'm happy for him in the same way I'm happy for Corporan, it's nice to see people chase down their dreams and be truly thankful for the opportunity.

 

He's almost exactly a replacement level player at this point according to projections, how many bench players around the league project better than replacement level? Isn't that the whole point of basing metrics off of the fictitious replacement level player?

[logan82]

I think we have to keep in mind that Nelson is likely to be facing mostly RHP as a bench player. This should allow him to do a little better than his projections.

[Never Outhustled]

And I think Laynce Nix is a fair comparison. Their minor league numbers are quite similar, with Nix actually having an edge. Nix's career minor league OPS is .827 and his career AAA OPS is .879. Brad takes a few more walks, Laynce hits for a bit more power.

If you are going to compare the 2, then you need to curve Nix's stats for his time playing in the offensive havens that he played in during his time in the Texas chain.

 

Brad Nelson's career minor leagues stats are not a true representation of his present hitting ability. In spring of 2008, he junked the big leg lift he used his whole career for a toe tap. He instantly went from a hacker to an extremely patient hitter.

[JoeHova]

Nix did go through the Texas system but he didn't really get to take advantage of great offensive environments. He spent the first 3 years of his career in the low-offense environments of the Gulf Coast League, Sally League and Florida State League, all of which routinely have league OPS's below .700. He played less than 200 games in the Texas League and in OKC combined. The vast majority of his PCL time was with Nashville, which is the same team Nelson has spent his whole AAA career with.

[trwi7]

The big unit on am 620 was promoting calling up Gamel and Escobar to replace Nelson and Hardy because they "aren't getting it done". When I called in to argue that this is a dumb stance because Hardy is a top five short stop that is slumping and Nelson could become a FA, the call screener told me that they knew Nelson would be DFA'd but he would clear waivers and be forced to report to AAA. I said I thought he could be a FA and the call screener became agitated and sort of yelled at me then hung up on me. (bcs looks at bill and his call screener) You two do this for a living!? Jeez. And all of that without me mentioning how insane it is to promote on the biggest am radio station in the state that Escobar should replace Hardy due to lack of OFFENSIVE production.

They actually talked about this today after the game. Another caller called in and asked if they would send him to the minors, another guy called in after and said he's out of options and would be either picked up or probably opt for free agency. Jeff Falconio (filling in for Dan O'Donnell) and Telly Hughes didn't have any idea so they just took his word for it. Then Mike Vassallo texted Telly confirming what the caller said.

 

Then another caller called in and asked if runners were on 1st and 3rd with two outs and a slow roller is hit towards 3rd and the runner crosses the plate before the out is made would the run count? The caller said it would, a buddy of his said it wouldn't, Jeff and Telly thought the run would count until another caller had to come in and correct them.

 

How do these people get these jobs when they have no clue what the simple rules of baseball are?

[BillyRed]

Telly is not enjoyable to listen to.

[kramnoj]

I didnt really like the fans that booed Nelson after his last AB today. Yes, the guy is struggling, but the Brewers were winning 3-0 at the time.

[dadofandrew]

I think Joe is right, many look only at Nelson's 2008 and not his other years in AAA because the results were not good. He was not young for his level, so it's tough to ignore them. An 800 OPS in AAA is weak for a 1B/OF. Nix can play CF, so that's a huge difference. Nelson seems to project as a reserve, and has had one decent PA thus far. Other than that, he's Mr. Swing at Everything, never heard of a walk, and tries to pull the outside pitch. He's earned his terrible numbers.

 

Meanwhile, though Duffy hasn't hit much, he has good AB's, walks some, and looks to have a clue. Who would have thought Chris would be the better choice for offense and defense in the battle of the reserve OF's.

[DHonks]

Nelson crushed that ball in his last at bat, so it's too bad it didn't go 5 feet farther and result in a double or homer. I just want to see him hit some balls hard, and that definitely was

[Tailgat0r76]

Nelson crushed that ball in his last at bat, so it's too bad it didn't go 5 feet farther and result in a double or homer. I just want to see him hit some balls hard, and that definitely was

He actually; K'd in his last at-bat; but yeah, I get what you're saying.

 

I love Nellie, and I really want him as a 4th outfielder in the future. His approach realllllly looks pressing right now though. Last year, in his very limited at-bats; I remember remarking at how "major-league ready" he appeared. He wasn't intimidated, took pitches, and had great AB's. That seems to have gone out the window for now. I'm sure once he gets his first hit; hopefully it'll loosen him up and such, but I'm anxiously awaiting that.