Batting order (Batting the pitcher 8th)

[Fatter than Joey]

Pie. Fantastic.

 

I'm taking the over in any pie related wager.

[rluzinski]

Just so no one accuses me of backtracking, can I provide commentary about pie in this thread or can I only provide pie related data?

 

A few years ago, Dan Fox broke down OPS with a little math and found how it weighs each of its components. The values were pretty close to the common linear weight values but OPS undervalues walks and HRs.

[Fatter than Joey]

can I provide commentary about pie in this thread

 

Please... Please... Just do it in great detail and .... very.... slowly...

 

but OPS undervalues walks and HRs.

 

Kendall gets too many IBBs for a guy who sucks at baseball.

[BrewCrewRising]

Just so no one accuses me of backtracking, can I provide commentary about pie in this thread or can I only provide pie related data?

Hate to say it, but you have to use a pie chart. Sorry, but you can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

Question getting back to the original topic of the thread: Is there a clear and accessible reason (for those of us who are not stat experts) why the batter in the worst batter in the 8th hole ends up producing more runs? I'm assuming the short answer is just that the number crunching says it is so. But is there some some explanation along the lines of "the weighted slugging percentage of the second worst hitter following the OBP of the pitcher will bring in x many runs", or is it that 9th hitter getting on more just gives the top of the order that many more opportunities to knock in runs? And if that were so, wouldn't that ever be negated by the 8th batter slowing down a rally or ending it? Or does this exrtrapolated anecdotal thinking simply not work and it just does indeed boil down to "the numbers just crunch that way."?

[Fatter than Joey]

Sorry, but you can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

Cake is for dipwads.

 

Is there a clear and accessible reason (for those of us who are not stat experts) why the batter in the worst batter in the 8th hole ends up producing more runs?

 

I am not sure it is the "worst hitter" -- but the "pitcher" -- part of the impact is that relief pitchers rarely bat -- and I would guess that the 9th hole gets 4 ABs from pitchers in a game.

[topper09er]

If you guys cant agree on OPS, which I dont understand because it is a good measure, maybe Runs Created which is a Jamesian stat that is pretty good. Right now Kendall has 3.0 Runs Created/game, which means a team with 9 jason kendall's hitting would score 3 runs per game (which seems high), and this team would have a .270 winning percentage assumsing average pitching and defense. Gallardo has 3.8 RC/G for a winning percentage of .370 as of now.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Question getting back to the original topic of the thread: Is there a clear and accessible reason (for those of us who are not stat experts) why the batter in the worst batter in the 8th hole ends up producing more runs? I'm assuming the short answer is just that the number crunching says it is so. But is there some some explanation along the lines of "the weighted slugging percentage of the second worst hitter following the OBP of the pitcher will bring in x many runs", or is it that 9th hitter getting on more just gives the top of the order that many more opportunities to knock in runs? And if that were so, wouldn't that ever be negated by the 8th batter slowing down a rally or ending it? Or does this exrtrapolated anecdotal thinking simply not work and it just does indeed boil down to "the numbers just crunch that way."?

It's basically that the 9th hitter getting on base more gives the top of the order more opportunities to knock in runs. Usually the stat-nerd speak for this relationship is something along the lines of "positive interaction effects with the top of the order" having sufficient value to overcome the negative value associated with giving the pitcher's spot a handful of extra PA every season. This is especially true if you are willing to go the extra mile and put your best hitter (or second best) in the two-hole instead of third.

 

Another small benefit is that most teams' top few PH options are better hitters (and usually much better sluggers) than their worst positional regular, so for the last 1-2 PA in every game, batting the pitcher 8th gives you a slightly better chance at sustaining a bottom of the order rally.

 

It should be noted that most estimate the difference between the two lineups to be quite small -- usually less than 10 or so runs/season. I wanna say that Brian and/or Bill claimed on broadcasts last year that the Brewers stat dept. thought batting Kendall 9th could net 30-40 runs or some similarly ridiculous amount. I've seen no statistical evidence that this is a justifiable claim. Perhaps Kendall is hitter uniquely suited to this arrangement (a decent OBP guy in theory at least, but with almost no extra base hits, ever), but I still seriously doubt that would be enough to get to 30-40 runs.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I don't know everything about wOBA, but it isn't the difference between how wOBA and OPS value BBs it is how each measures BBs compared to how they value singles and other hits. In OPS a walk(0.25) has half the value of a single(0.5). In wOBA a walk(0.31) has about 2/3 the value of a single(0.46). So in this case when we are comparing a group of hitters who will hardly ever walk to a hitter who gets much of his value from walking, I think we will see them end up being estimated much closer in value using OPS than wOBA. More than a couple average players would.

 

Better yet, compare David DeJesus to Upton. .818 OPS compared to .784. .354 wOBA compared to .355.

wOBA also includes runs generated by SB and lost by CS. That's another reason Upton's wOBA rates him better than his OPS, especially relative to DeJesus, who was caught stealing nearly as many times as he was successful in 2008.

[logan82]

I thought about CS after I posted. I forgot that it was included while I was posting. Upton gets caught stealing almost enough to negate his gains from stolen bases. In 2008 using the wOBA values a CS is worth -0.42 and a SB 0.20. Upton had 44 SB(8.8) with 16 CS(6.72) which comes to a difference of 2.08 or about 4.5 singles. DeJesus really hurt his value a lot with the CS.

 

DeJesus was a bad example for what I was trying to show with regards to walks. I think he shows another flaw in OPS. It doesn't take any base running into account.

 

Pie is a farce. All it is, is a cruel attempt to trick people into eating more fruits and vegetables.

[rluzinski]

Here's an explanation of wOBA:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

[logan82]

I think a SB adds .00033 to wOBA over 600 PA and .0004 over 500 PA. SB don't add much to wOBA over the course of a season unless you steal a bunch at a good rate.

[nohopspanther]

I'm not certain what to do about the batting order as I think the best thing to do is just have Rivera catch Bush and Parra to limit Kendall's exposure offensively. Just look at the everyday 1-8 OPS and see how far off Kendall is.

 

Weeks .842

Hart .764

Braun .1071

Fielder .945

Cameron .985

Hardy .687

Hall .826

Kendall .503

 

 

Edit to add: I would rather have a high BA and low OBP, high SLG player bat 8th because I have no use for a guy whose only skill batting in front of a pitcher is getting to first base at a mediocre rate. I want someone capable of driving in runs or himself into scoring position without being ibb to face the pitcher, or having the pitcher drop down a bunt constantly. The second sentence desribes exactly what I see in Kendall as a hitter.