Batting order (Batting the pitcher 8th)

[Fatter than Joey]

People claim player X is the better hitter but won't use the right stats to back up that claim.

 

You made the following statement, which included OPS

 

Even with Kendall's bad start, his projections going forward beat any pitcher's very easily.

 

OPS is a heck of a lot better than BA or RBIs but it's clearly not the right stat to compare two players and determine who's more productive. But I think you know that already.

 

If Kendall should "beat any pitcher's projection easily" -- then why do we need to include linear weights?

 

It's not as if we are debating which of 2 players with .800 OPS's are more valuable.

 

If we need to introduce linear weights into an argument of a position player vs. an aggregate of 3 starting pitchers -- I think the point has already been made.

 

If you think that "Kendall (or his projections) will beat any pitcher's projection easily" -- I don't think you would be concerned about OPS v. properly weighting OBP -- but that's just me.

 

If we did do it your way, we should exclude Kendall's IBBs then.

[MJLiverock]

If you want to juice Kendall's numbers by weighting his OBP higher (basically admitting he can't outslug the pitchers) you should also penalize he and the pitchers for grounding into double plays. This will also work into the numerous putting the bat on the ball vs. striking out arguments that pop up.

 

I'm with FTJ on this one, if you have to resort to lines like in a million iterations Kendall will out perform the pitchers but if he doesn't it is just dumb luck or if you don't want to use straight up OPS then I think the point has been made that Kendall isn't much of a hitter for an everyday player.

[logan82]

Fair enough, I will stand behind it -- Let me hear what you have.

 

Originally I was going to suggest than if Kendall hits better than Looper, Parra, or Yo over the entire year you no longer post here. If any of those 3 guys hit better than Kendall over the entire year then I no longer post here. If any go down with injury and miss half or more of the season, we don't look at their stats. I say injury instead of games or PA because I don't want to leave an out for myself in the case Kendall gets benched, not that I think it will happen, because he is playing horribly. The possibility exists that we both win in which case we both lose. I would even use OPS, flawed as it is, as the deciding stat. I see that you don't think that all of those 3 guys will hit better than Kendall anymore though.

 

I think there is an outside possibility that Yo might be able to out OPS Kendall. All of Parra, Looper and Yo, not so much. I see nothing to suggest Parra and Looper can outhit Kendall. Nothing in the past and definitely nothing this year. Parra and Looper have a combined .000 OPS right now.

[Fatter than Joey]

I see that you don't think that all of those 3 guys will hit better than Kendall anymore though.

 

I think the aggregate will be better than Kendall -- I wouldn't want to bet that all three would outhit Kendall.

 

then I no longer post here.

 

I would want no part of you not posting here, I like your posts (and certainly Russ's as well) and I don't want this to be ugly -- I am just proposing a simple bet Kendall v. Yo/Parra/Looper OPS -- with the loser making a donation to a beer fridge of the winner's choice.

[endaround]

See the easiet thing is if FTJ loses is to have him write an 1,000 word essay on why Ned Yost was a great manager who got a bum rap.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

See the easiet thing is if FTJ loses is to have him write an 1,000 word essay on why Ned Yost was a great manager who got a bump rap.

That's just sadistic. I think it would be fun to do the other people involved in this hypothetical wager. I'll take rluz -- he has to write a 1000 word essay on the importance of chemistry and intangibles in roster construction, arguing that no true contender can be built without proven veteran leadership.

 

I came up with that by thinking of the essay I would least like to be forced to write as a result of losing a bet. Somebody else should think of one for logan.

[rluzinski]

I t's very simple. I don't want to use OPS because it's not a very good measure of run production. The fact that it was included in the projections I posted was not some kind of endorsement for it. People expect to see it, so I put it there. I think BA is pretty worthless as well but I included it. Does that mean I want to use that instead?

 

You didn't make the claim that those 3 pitchers will outslug or out OPS Kendall, you said they were better hitters at this point. To me, the better hitter will result in their team scoring more runs. A batter with the same OPS but a higher OBP will produce more runs for his team. If I were you, I would want to use OPS as well. It at least gives tou a fighting chance.

 

Like I said, 1.8 x OBP + SLG most closely matches the linear weights value, which why I suggested it. Some people have used a number as low as 1.5, which would be fine as well. Anyone who suggests I want to use a mutiplier simply because it benefits me probably has no idea where that equation comes from, so I'm not going to argue about it. And I have no problem simply using linear weight values that correctly gives less value for an IBB and docks a batter for hitting into double plays. Those are excellent points and hould be accounted for. I'm not going to handicap myself simply for the sake of getting the bet agreed on, though.

 

But sure, this has probably become more complicated than most people would want it to be but tryng to measure offensive production isn't simple. That's probably why you see people constantly arguing about who's the better of two hitters. It usually doesn't involve a positional player and a trio of pitchers, however.

 

Fatter said 3 pitchers are better hitters than Kendall. I disagree but if we can't agree on what makes someone a better hitter, this is a waste of time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Logan has to write no less than 1,000 words on Bill Hall being the living breathing demonstration of proper fundamentals on defense.

[logan82]

then I no longer post here.

 

I would want no part of you not posting here, I like your posts (and certainly Russ's as well) and I don't want this to be ugly -- I am just proposing a simple bet Kendall v. Yo/Parra/Looper OPS -- with the loser making a donation to a beer fridge of the winner's choice.

I really don't want your posting priveledges revoked either. Though I probably disagree with you at least 70% of the time and more likely 90%.

 

Well I think we can discuss a wager of some sort. I will gladly put up a donation to your fridge of your favorite beer vs an equal dollar value of a beer I like. I will take Kendall's OPS vs the aggregate OPS of Yo/Looper/Parra . I do agree with Russ that 1.8*OBP + SLG or wOBA is a more accurate measure of a hitter's value.

Logan has to write no less than 1,000 words on Bill Hall being the living breathing demonstration of proper fundamentals on defense.

 

and base running.

[kramnoj]

I'm no statistician, but isn't the claim that OPS grossly undervalues OBP just a little bit of an overstatement? From :http://jinaz-reds.blogspo...do-i-keep-using-ops.html someone posted correlation of different stats. Now people have told me that I'm misusing the stats, and that's fine, but nobody who has taken the time to point out that I'm wrong has taken the time to actually be helpful and explain further.

 

Anyway, this table shows that OPS correlates to runs scored at .9231 and GPA correlates at .9326. How many runs difference would exist between those two stats over 140ish games for Kendall and the 250ish ABs that the pitchers would get?

[logan82]

Anyway, this table shows that OPS correlates to runs scored at .9231 and GPA correlates at .9326. How many runs difference would exist between those two stats over 140ish games for Kendall and the 250ish ABs that the pitchers would get?

 

It makes a bigger difference depending on the type of player. OPS is very good overall. There are better ways with linear weights that give a closer value to events. THT had a good 2 part article last week about different run estimators. I think the example they used was guys like Dunn get undervalued with OPS since he walks so much. Triples were another thing that were mentioned as problems.

 

Part 1

Part 2

[kramnoj]

Thank you for the link. So let me do math in public and risk humiliation. If I understand the values in the 2nd page, Kendall's (non-IBB) walks last year using OPS would be worth 10.75 runs and using GPA would be worth 13.76 runs.

 

3 runs in a season doesn't seem like grossly underrating something, but the percentage difference is certainly appreciable.

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

3 runs in a season doesn't seem like grossly underrating something, but the percentage difference is certainly appreciable.

I am probably not the person to go into the math much, but I think it comes down to how Kendall will get his OPS vs how a pitcher will get his OPS. I think is we were talking about most hitters we would be ok using OPS. The problem comes in when we start talking about extreme cases in walks or power. Pitchers are not going to walk much and Kendall will so the difference in value for walks is going to be more pronounced. Especially after you figure in the higher value for hits as well.

[rluzinski]

Since the start of this thread:

 

Kendall: 61 PA, .304 / .364 / .375 / .739

 

Yo, Parra & Looper: 23 PA, .087 / .087 / .218 / .305

 

Now, I don't expect Kendall to keep up that small sample production, just like I didn't expect him to keep up his pre-April 23rd production, just like I didn't expect him to keep up his great start in 2008.

 

His preseaon Marcel projection was .252 / .337 / .328 / .665. That's still a pretty reasonable guess. And the 3 pitchers will surely improve upon their above sample but come on now.

 

Also,if I didn't mention it somewhere in this thread, wOBA basically is linear weights. They both debt the hitter for making outs, so just having more ABs doesn't give you the better number.

[Fatter than Joey]

And the 3 pitchers will surely improve upon their above sample but come on now.

 

Yet you didn't take the bet.

[rluzinski]

I never saw your post where you agreed to wOBA. I lost interest in the whole thing after it was implied (not by you) that I was trying to unfairly increase my odds of winning by not just using OPS. Kind of takes the whole fun out of a friendly wager.

[Fatter than Joey]

Fair enough -- I really didnt see a reason to move from OPS.

[rluzinski]

Fair enough -- I really didnt see a reason to move from OPS.

 

And 10 years ago, someone was arguing that they really didn't see the need to move from BA and RBI. Now, the difference between BA/RBI and OPS is much larger than OPS and wOBA but if I want to measure something, anything, I want to use the best available tools to do so. You may not think that it's worth the bother but I'll bet you can appreciate why a guy like me does.

[Fatter than Joey]

You may not think that it's worth the bother but I'll bet you can appreciate why a guy like me does.

 

I really don't -- I think you could have a wager about which pitchers will have the highest win total, without it being an absolute determination of which pitcher was "better".

 

I don't see why you can't pick OPS or any stat for that matter and speculate on it. If you think those pitchers will have a lower OPS than Kendall -- then put your beer money where your mouth is, otherwise step aside.

[TooLiveBrew]

But the flip-side to that coin FtJ, is why wouldn't you be ok with using wOBA?

[Fatter than Joey]

OPS is more readily available and pretty much the predominant stat used to discuss players here on this forum, and is quite sufficient in the confines of a wager. We are talking about a pitcher outhitting a catcher -- OPS should be adequate to make that point.

 

If you look at reply #7 -- Russ first mentioned the bet -- and used OPS to back his point -- after making that statement I felt like using another stat was just backtracking and hedging his bet.

 

Frankly -- I think Russ would have won using OPS, probably pretty easily.

[logan82]

I really don't see the need to use wOBA in this case either.

 

I do see how wOBA would be a better especially considering the differences in how the group of pitchers will get their OPS compared to Kendall. Probably not exactly right, but compare BJ Upton to Adrian Beltre in 2008. Both had an identical .784 OPS. When using wOBA however they come out as .354(Upton) and .336(Beltre). Upton has a more OBP heavy OPS. (Edit: Somebody feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but the difference in those wOBAs when calculated out to runs is almost 10 runs over 600 PA.)

 

If I understand the values in the 2nd page, Kendall's (non-IBB) walks last year using OPS would be worth 10.75 runs and using GPA would be worth 13.76 runs.

 

3 runs in a season doesn't seem like grossly underrating something, but the percentage difference is certainly appreciable.

 

I don't know everything about wOBA, but it isn't the difference between how wOBA and OPS value BBs it is how each measures BBs compared to how they value singles and other hits. In OPS a walk(0.25) has half the value of a single(0.5). In wOBA a walk(0.31) has about 2/3 the value of a single(0.46). So in this case when we are comparing a group of hitters who will hardly ever walk to a hitter who gets much of his value from walking, I think we will see them end up being estimated much closer in value using OPS than wOBA. More than a couple average players would.

 

Better yet, compare David DeJesus to Upton. .818 OPS compared to .784. .354 wOBA compared to .355.

[rluzinski]

Step aside? Why do I sense that you are about two posts away from calling me "son"?

 

I made it clear some time ago that I was no longer interested in taking the bet, as it wasn't worth having my integrity questioned over it. You want to continue to question my motivation for not wanting to use OPS? More power to you. I'll be happy to simply provide the raw data throughout the season, without adding any additional commentary. People can interpret the data any way they see it. No bets. No winners or losers.

[Fatter than Joey]

I was no longer interested in taking the bet, as it wasn't worth having my integrity questioned over it.

 

I'm pretty sure no one is calling out your integrity.

 

I'll be happy to simply provide the raw data throughout the season, without adding any additional commentary

 

Fantastic.

[BrewCrewRising]

Step aside? Why do I sense that you are about two posts away from calling me "son"?

This would be a good bet. I do think FTJ will call rluz "son" sometime soon. I don't think it will be within two posts. I predict it will be in July and the topic will be about pie being served in the concession stands at Miller Park.