Batting order (Batting the pitcher 8th)

[nate82]

Not really an in-game thread really just a general question here.

 

Wouldn't it be better to bat Kendall 9th in the lineup when Looper, Parra, and Gallardo are pitching? The number 7 hitter really wouldn't get much to hit though so theres a negative. But is it any different really to have Kendall bat 8th and the pitcher bat 9th? Gallardo has more power in his swing than Kendall does right now so I don't see a problem with getting Gallardo an extra AB whenever he starts.

 

With Kendall it looks like he is starting to go down hill really fast with his production at the plate. If Macha is going to continue putting Kendall in wouldn't it be a better idea to move Kendall into the 9th spot when those three pitchers are pitching?

[endaround]

Batting the pitcher 8th is always the better option.

[PlayerHader]

Batting Kendall as little as possible is always the better option.

 

Seriously. He doesn't even look like a major leaguer up there at the plate.

[Invader3K]

At least he had a solid base hit yesterday.

[Never Outhustled]

While I agree Kendall has died offensively, everybody hits 200. Kendall will get there to, meaning he'll be close to tollerable the rest of the way.

[Fatter than Joey]

While I agree Kendall has died offensively, everybody hits 200.

 

Kendall might get to .200 -- the problem is, his SLG will be .230.

 

I can see this thread getting confused with semantics -- I understand what endaround is saying -- but I think his answer is confusing things. I would have no problem treating Kendall as the worst hitter in the lineup when Parra, Looper, and Yo are pitching.

 

So.....

 

If your philosophy is that the worst hitter should bat 8th, I think Kendall should bat 8th

If your philosophy is that the worst hitter should bat 9th, I think Kendall should bat 9th.

 

Kendall OPS .402

Brewers pitchers OPS .571

 

I will give the obligatory "small sample" disclaimer, but I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point.

[CheezWizHed]

If Kendall can't out hit our pitchers, he shouldn't be in the lineup at all.

[rluzinski]

I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point.

 

As much as I dislike Kendall's bat, I would love to take that bet. Zambrano may be the best hitting pitcher in the league and here's his career line:

 

.236 /.244 /.381 /.625

 

Kendall's preseason Marcel projection:

 

.252/.337/.328/.665

 

Even with Kendall's bad start, his projections going forward beat any pitcher's very easily. The irony is, it was about this time last year that I was trying to convince people not to overweight Kendall's good start.

 

Now, I've seen studies that still advocate batting the pitcher 8th. I thick it showed to add 4 runs over a season, IRRC.

[Ennder]

I think Gallardo and Owings are probably better hitters than Zambrano at this point, though your point is probably correct. This isn't something new for Kendall, last year he had 3 completely miserable months and 3 very tolerable months and they alternated. When he is hot he can still put up a .700+ OPS for a month, when he's not it is groundout to 3B and pop up over and over.

[Fatter than Joey]

As much as I dislike Kendall's bat, I would love to take that bet.

 

Seriously? -- What's your terms? -- I will take Yo, and you take the Ken-dog.

[logan82]

You said Yo, Parra and Looper. I would think Russ should get to pick your hitter out of those 3 or you take the aggregate of all 3.

[Fatter than Joey]

So you wouldn't take Yo v. Kendall?

[MarquesJohnson2000]

The Wall Street Journal had an article a week or two ago about "crazy baseball ideas" and batting the pitcher 8th was in the list (with reference to LaRussa and no mention of Yost's experiment last season).

 

I believe the figure cited in that article was two runs a season (far less than the 30-40 Yost was expecting for the Brewers)

[logan82]

So you wouldn't take Yo v. Kendall?

I don' think Yo will have a higher OPS than Kendall by the end of the year.

[rluzinski]

I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point.

 

In other words, going forward, you are saying that more often than not, you would expect that all three will out hit Kendall, if we played the season a million times. Over one season, you could be dead wrong and still luck your way to a win, or I could be wrong and still win. But since I think the odds of your claim actually occurring are so low, I would love to take the bet.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don' think Yo will have a higher OPS than Kendall by the end of the year.

 

OK, let's bet... name yer stakes...

 

In other words, going forward, you are saying that more often than not, you would expect that all three will out hit Kendall, if we played the season a million times. Over one season, you could be dead wrong and still luck your way to a win, or I could be wrong and still win. But since I think the odds of your claim actually occurring are so low, I would love to take the bet.

 

I am not real comfortable saying all three will hit better than Kendall over the course of this season, but I would take the aggregate of all three, or Yo. Name your stakes...

[billyhallfan]

does anyone know the reason why kendall can't play for macha? They seem to get along, but the guy just seems to play worse when Macha is the manager for the team Kendall is on?

[logan82]

I don' think Yo will have a higher OPS than Kendall by the end of the year.

 

OK, let's bet... name yer stakes.

I am pretty convinced that Yo, Parra and Looper are more effective hitters at this point.

 

If you stand behind this comment I will. Meaning that if you would take the aggregate of all 3 I will name stakes. Saying that all 3 would be better than Kendall was my original beef with your posts.

[rluzinski]

I am not real comfortable saying all three will hit better than Kendall over the course of this season, but I would take the aggregate of all three, or Yo. Name your stakes...

 

The average of the three is fine. No way I'm using OPS, though, since it grossly undervalues OBP and that's the only thing Kendall isn't terrible at yet. To keep it as simple as possible, I suggest 1.8OBP+SLG, which is the best fit to the linear weight values for each batting event. Either that or just use this linear weight equation:

 

.47*1B + .78*2B + 1.09*3B + 1.4*HR + .33*(BB+HB) - .27*(AB-H)

 

http://baseballevolution.com/keith/linearw.html

 

If you want me to use OPS or BA or RBIs, no thanks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

$50, donated to BF.net?

[dragoon84]

I liked it last year with Kendall batting 9th, it seemed to me like the experiment was going well, except for JJ, who wasn't getting anything good to hit.

 

I think Kendall batting 9th would make even more sense this year. BA talks about Kendall being a .300 hitter again, but I just don't see it. He's past his peak in that regard, although he is a joy to watch behind the plate. He is easily the best defensive catcher I've seen as a Brewers fan, but I've only been paying attention since 2003.

 

Rivera should definately get more playing time. Is he attached to two pitchers now? Bush and Parra? I like him batting standard in the 8th spot. The more of Rivera, the better.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

The average of the three is fine. No way I'm using OPS, though, since it grossly undervalues OBP and that's the only thing Kendall isn't terrible at yet. To keep it as simple as possible, I suggest 1.8OBP+SLG, which is the best fit to the linear weight values for each batting event. Either that or just use this linear weight equation:

 

.47*1B + .78*2B + 1.09*3B + 1.4*HR + .33*(BB+HB) - .27*(AB-H)

 

http://baseballevolution.com/keith/linearw.html

It probably isn't terribly fair to use raw linear weights, as barring injury, Kendall looks like a lock to get significantly more PA. He starts 4 out of every 5 games and is not PH for by the 7th inning. I don't know how you'd weigh the injury risk, since each of the individual pitchers are much more likely to miss some time, but all the eggs are in one basket on the Kendall side of the wager. I suppose he could also stink badly enough to lose the starting job at some point.

 

Why not just use wOBA? No playing time worries that way. It probably would give the same result as 1.8OBP+SLG, but in the unlikely event that it doesn't, wouldn't it be better to use the more sophisticated and accurate metric?

 

Aside to FTJ: Dude, you're really working hard to find someone to bet you about something. I'm tempted to say something outlandish in some thread just to see if I can get any action.

[Fatter than Joey]

No way I'm using OPS, though, since it grossly undervalues OBP and that's the only thing Kendall isn't terrible at yet.

 

Here is a stat Kendall isn't terrible at...

 

[Groundout to 3b ^ popup]/[hr-1] -- In fact I would say he is indefinably good...

 

I would have thought that based on your reply (#7), OPS would have been sufficient -- If you are not comfortable wagering that Kendall can beat the aggregate OPS of Looper, Yo and Parra, -- I am content to leave things at that.

 

$50, donated to BF.net?

 

No, they'd just blow the money on crappy CDs and ponytails -- I'd rather donate money to a worthy cause like your beer fridge, or tailgate fund.

 

If you stand behind this comment I will. Meaning that if you would take the aggregate of all 3 I will name stakes.

 

Fair enough, I will stand behind it -- Let me hear what you have.

 

Aside to FTJ: Dude, you're really working hard to find someone to bet you about something. I'm tempted to say something outlandish in some thread just to see if I can get any action.

 

Yeah, my doctor suggested that I should stop overeating -- though I am pretty sure he implied that I should replace overeating with compulsive gambling, and then of course celebratory meals, or self-loathing visits to Taco Bell.

 

I'm on the road to recovery.

[davego]

Does some of the general benefit of hitting the P 8th come later in the game? One the starter comes out you can get your PH to the plate ahead of the #9 hitter. Rather then this issue being about Kendall specifically, I thought this line of thinking was more at the core of the debate.

[rluzinski]

It's always the same thing. People claim player X is the better hitter but won't use the right stats to back up that claim. OPS is a heck of a lot better than BA or RBIs but it's clearly not the right stat to compare two players and determine who's more productive. But I think you know that already.

[TheCrew07]

who gets to determine what the correct stat is and why?