Todd Coffey/Dan Kolb comparison

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm surprised nobody else has brought it up, but I'm struck by how similar Coffey appears to the Dan Kolb of 2003 and 2004. Kolb hadn't done much prior to the Brewers picking him up in his late 20's similar to Coffey's situation. Both feature mid 90's sinking fastballs.

[Ennder]

Coffey was better than his numbers suggest in 2007 with a 4.04 xFIP to go with that 5.82 ERA. He has a somewhat decent but not spectacular track record. I don't know what happened with Kolb in 2003 but he had never pitched like that before and he never pitched like that again.

[Never Outhustled]

I think thats an excellent comparison Briggs. Kolb had an ERA under 5 in 68 games with the Rangers. Thats very similar to Coffey pre-Brewers, Kolb's is just a little smaller sample size. Like you mention, they have similar sinkers, along with very good heat on their 4-seamer, and battle conditioning issues.

 

Kolb eventually lost some of his velocity and became less effective, likely due to his long history of injury. Coffey has always been healthy, hopefully he can continue his awesomeness.

[Thurston Fluff]

It's hard to compare pitchers in general and relievers even more so. Even stats are less trustworthy for predicting future success in part because of the limited sample sizes. Not to mention they can learn a new pitch or finally get some control of one they could throw for strikes in the past.

According to the JS today Coffey seems to have been with a team that didn't like sinking fastballs and preferred him to throw his 4 seemer more. I don't know if that is just Coffey trying to explain his lack of success or if the Reds can really be that stuck on certain pitches that they fail to allow the pitcher to use his best stuff. Seems silly to me if that is true but so far Coffey has found something he hadn't in the past. I'm kind of hoping it was the Reds not using him right since that would mean he has a better chance of continued success if it was just the wrong fit there.

[crewcrazy]

According to the JS today Coffey seems to have been with a team that didn't like sinking fastballs and preferred him to throw his 4 seemer more. I don't know if that is just Coffey trying to explain his lack of success or if the Reds can really be that stuck on certain pitches that they fail to allow the pitcher to use his best stuff. Seems silly to me if that is true but so far Coffey has found something he hadn't in the past. I'm kind of hoping it was the Reds not using him right since that would mean he has a better chance of continued success if it was just the wrong fit there.

That's interesting to hear, but I have a hard time believing that the Reds would be against him throwing a sinking fastball, especially with how Great American Ballpark plays as a bandbox for anything hit in the air. Maybe they had a good reason for it (maybe it just wasn't effective enough at that point to use, or he had spotty success with it like a Ben Sheets change-up), but I'd be all for a guy keeping the ball on the ground if I was working with the Reds.

 

Here is the article in question, for anyone who wants to read it. For as much (deserved) crap TH gets for his blog stuff, he still does a good job with profiles like these.

[Diskono]

I had the same thought during Sunday's game. Kolb went through a huge drop in velocity when he flamed out, though. Wasn't he throwing close to 100mph when he first joined? IIRC, he was down to low 90s by the time we traded him.

[DHonks]

I still stick by my comparison of last September...he's like David Weathers. Same stuff, same build

[MNBrew]

I still stick by my comparison of last September...he's like David Weathers. Same stuff, same build

Coffey has a non-negative chin, though.

 

It still would've been nice to have had David Weathers on the Brewers over all these years since he netted us . . . Ruben Quevedo. Ouch. That wasn't a good one, Dean.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still stick by my comparison of last September...he's like David Weathers. Same stuff, same build

Maybe Weathers 10 years ago but certainly not now. Weathers stuff isn't close to Coffey velocity-wise now. Weathers sinker is now 86-88. Coffey's is 93-95. Weathers uses his slider a lot more than Coffey does too who throws 80-90% fastballs.

 

Kolb had the same hard sinker as Coffey. It's true in his second time around as a Brewer he had lost 3-4 mph off it. He also lost some command.

 

Coffey as a Brewer has been able to command that sinker much like Kolb did his first time around as a Brewer. Anyone that can command a mid 90's sinker is going to have success but it's a tough pitch to command consistently.

[CheezWizHed]

I have to admit that I saw Coffey come off the field after the save last night. He had his head down a bit and for a second, he looked a lot like Kolb (goatee, size, etc..).

[endaround]

That's interesting to hear, but I have a hard time believing that the Reds would be against him throwing a sinking fastball, especially with how Great American Ballpark plays as a bandbox for anything hit in the air. Maybe they had a good reason for it (maybe it just wasn't effective enough at that point to use, or he had spotty success with it like a Ben Sheets change-up), but I'd be all for a guy keeping the ball on the ground if I was working with the Reds.

 

Here is the article in question, for anyone who wants to read it. For as much (deserved) crap TH gets for his blog stuff, he still does a good job with profiles like these.

 

Check fangraphs-they made Coffey into a fastball slider guy last year. Tyrying to figure out a Dusty Baker lead team just isn't worth it. That doesn't mean anything for Coffey's previous years but it can help to explain his flameout last season.