Time to Switch Hardy and Hart?

[nsimps]

With our three, four, and five guys in the lineup being a offensive black-hole, is it time for Macha to tinker with the lineup? I would think Hart or Cameron in the five spot would give a little more protection to Prince who is being walked a lot early on with J.J. not hiting. And if Prince gets going then Braun should get better at bats and the whole lineup improves.

[brewtown82]

I'd rather wait awhile before pulling the plug. Hart has been hitting well ahead of Braun and Fielder. If those guys start to hit, he's going to be seeing even better pitches. Hardy is kind of a tweener. You never really know where to hit him. But, with Rickie going well and Hart going well, why move either one for our coldest hitter this side of kendall?

[DougJones43]

Yeah, I think I'd like to see:

 

Hardy at #2

Cameron at #5

Hart at #6

[endaround]

So because Hardy isn't hitting he should get more PAs?

[brewtown82]

Yeah, I think I'd like to see:

 

Hardy at #2

Cameron at #5

Hart at #6

 

Hart at 6? Why even pitch to him at that point? And Cameron at five is not enough protection for Fielder over 162 games than Hardy would be.

[nate82]

I would like to see Hart to stay where he is at and move Cameron to the #5 spot and Hardy to the #6 spot.

[endaround]

The difference between Cameron and Hardy is slight.

[DougJones43]

Hardy isn't going to be cold forever. Also, I think he has stated a preference for the #2 spot, and his OPS was .887 last year from that spot, compared to a much lower OPS during his 219 at-bats at other spots in the order. Although that could just be random noise.

 

As for Hart batting 6th, I think his speed would be better utilized there. It's a big risk to ever send him now with Braun/Prince coming up. Cameron's power (if he were to bat 5th) should protect Fielder fine.

[Ennder]

A short term switch until Hardy warms up would not bother me, I'd do Hardy batting 6th and Cameron 5th just so we don't have 3 black holes in the lineup in a row (Braun, Fielder, Hardy).

[Tailgat0r76]

I don't see why Hardy/Hart were ever switched in the first place, besides the DP argument with Rickie on and Hardy up. Corey can't steal anymore, being ahead of Braun and Fielder; and Hardy's always thrived in the fastball-heavy 2-slot. It just seems like common sense to me; but what do I know?

[bobskube]

Very good argument here. I think it can go either way.

 

In my opinion, I say keep this up thru April and then reevaluate things then. Still too small of a sample for me.

[GB12]

Hardy needs to be hitting in the two hole. He needs to have the protection of Braun and Fielder behind him to get good fastballs to hit.

[Never Outhustled]

Hardy needs to be hitting in the two hole. He needs to have the protection of Braun and Fielder behind him to get good fastballs to hit.

Hardy entered the season with a higher career OPS batting 5th than 2nd. The #2 spot should be for a high OBA guy with speed. Hardy's highest OBA of his pro career is last year's .343 OBA. Havig speed on the bases in front of the guys who hit the most singles is logical, and Braun and Fielder hit more singles than Cameron and Hall.

If we're going to play the hot lineup game, then Braun, Fielder, and Hardy should be batting 5-7, but I don't like that game.

[PrinceEatMeat]

With Hart hitting so well in the 2 spot, there is no way he will get moved. Weeks and Hart are working well in the top 2 spots. Once Braun and Fielder get going, they will be even more effective. I don't know that it would even accomplish anything to move Hardy back to the 2 spot, especially right now while Braun and Fielder aren't hitting. The only way I would consider it is after Braun and Fielder start hitting again, so Hardy would see consistent fastballs in front of them. Right now it would seem to make more sense to just move Hardy down. Fielder is clearly being pitched around in key situations due to Hardy's lack of hitting to this point. That needs to change fast.

[nsimps]

The only way I would consider it is after Braun and Fielder start hitting again, so Hardy would see consistent fastballs in front of them. Right now it would seem to make more sense to just move Hardy down.

That's a good point, but where do you slot Hardy in at? Just flip him and Cameron for now, or try to ride out the storm and hope either Braun, Fielder or Hardy start hitting? One of the other problems I see with the lineup is that Cameron and Hall are hitting in front of two almost sure outs at this point. So we have the number 1 or 2 hitter getting on and the 3,4 and 5 hitters stranding them or the 6 or 7 hitters getting on with 8 and 9 stranding them.

[monty57]

I didn't like the switch when Macha made it, especially since he decided to do it with only a game or two left in spring training, when Hart & Hardy were both hitting well. That said, Hart is doing very well in the #2 spot, with a .943 OPS, and walking 1 out of every 5 ABs vs. 1 out of every 22 ABs last year. I wouldn't want to do anything to change what he's doing right now. I would consider a temporary change in the order for Cameron and Hardy. Hardy will come around, but right now Cameron is Milwaukee's hottest bat (1.133 OPS) and Hardy's argueably their coldest (.403 OPS)

 

One of the other problems I see with the lineup is that Cameron and Hall are hitting in front of two almost sure outs at this point. So we have the number 1 or 2 hitter getting on and the 3,4 and 5 hitters stranding them or the 6 or 7 hitters getting on with 8 and 9 stranding them.

 

Nsimps, that's a good point regarding the current order. We need to do something to wake up the offense, and outside of bringing up Gamel (who would replace the Hall who's playing well), I don't see any major moves that could or should be made. Switching Cameron & Hardy isn't anything huge, but maybe it would be the kick in the pants the players need.

[PrinceEatMeat]

To be honest, I think we should get Rivera in there more often to kick-start the offense. The only other thing we could really do is flip Cam and Hardy. I wouldn't drop Hardy all the way to 7, partially because Hall is somehow hitting well there in front of Kendall, who is our worst hitter by far. I think it just has to be a wait and see approach right now. We'll see if anyone steps it up, and then go from there.

[monty57]

I agree on the Rivera front as well. He should get at least 2/5 of the starts

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think they should have Rivera catch Parra and Bush, because Rivera has past experience with Parra, and I heard they work good together. That would give him 2/5 of the starts like you said.

[rluzinski]

Seriously, how many more fastballs do people think a #2 hitter gets over a #5 hitter? Looks like about 4% more on average:

 

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=139

 

Assuming 4 pitches per plate appearance, we are talking about 1 extra fastball every 6 PA. As is often the case, what baseball accepts as common wisdom doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

[TheCrew07]

Rivera did catch Parra's perfect game at AAA, but other than getting Rivera ABs I'm not sure that Rivera would make a difference for Manny. Parra will break out when he learns to trust his stuff and get after people. If he doesn't, then he'll be adequate to above average, but not the pitcher could be, sort of an Oliver Perez career path.

 

Getting back to the offense, is 4 PAs a week going to be the difference in the offense? I don't see how 4 extra PAs for River is going to make up a for Braun, Fielder, and Hardy not getting the job done. Once those 3 start hitting, we'll feel much better about the offense. I'm not against the idea of Rivera getting more PAs, I just think the impact would be minimal.

[monty57]

Getting back to the offense, is 4 PAs a week going to be the difference in the offense? I don't see how 4 extra PAs for River is going to make up a for Braun, Fielder, and Hardy not getting the job done. Once those 3 start hitting, we'll feel much better about the offense. I'm not against the idea of Rivera getting more PAs, I just think the impact would be minimal.

 

I get your point, but by that logic, starting Duffy or Gwynn over Braun once / week or Nelson over Fielder once / week wouldn't matter, as it's only 4 extra PAs/week. Going from starting 20% of the games to starting 40% of the games is significant. Braun, Prince and Hardy heating up is the key to our offense, but we need help any way we can get it.

 

Assuming 4 pitches per plate appearance, we are talking about 1 extra fastball every 6 PA. As is often the case, what baseball accepts as common wisdom doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

 

Aggregate stats don't always stand up in individual situations. I think rather than saying #2 vs. #5, I'd look at how pitchers throw to batters when they know the next two batters are capable of hitting 50 HRs in a season. Not many teams have that 3/4 punch, so the current Brewers situation is different than most teams. There of course have been other teams that would have a comperable makeup, so it would make more sense (although it would be much more difficult to find) to compare #2 hitters on the current Brewers to #2 hitters on historical teams that have had two 40+ HR guys in the 3/4 slots.

 

I believe pitchers throw them differently because I've heard a lot of retired pitchers and catchers say that they threw them differently. Who would know better how a pithcer thinks then the pitcher himself?

[logan82]

I get your point, but by that logic, starting Duffy or Gwynn over Braun once / week or Nelson over Fielder once / week wouldn't matter, as it's only 4 extra PAs/week.

 

The difference between Braun/Cameron/Hart and our backup outfielders is much greater than the difference between Rivera and Kendall.

[dlk9s]

Frankly, I feel that Prince, Braun, and Hardy should all just be DFA'ed already.

[rluzinski]

I don't need to hear stories from retired pitchers to know how pitchers vary their pitch selections. The data is all there to be analyzed. And sure, aggregate data isn't going to account for all the differences in specific lineups but let's use some common sense.

 

Braun and Fielder are both good hitters but plenty of teams have pretty comparible 3 and 4 hitters. It's not like pitchers are grooving fastball after fastball 2 anyone who bats in front of them. The effect is so much more sutle than that. And I think pitch selection is also dependant upon the batter himself.

 

So yeh, maybe Hardy would see an extra fastball every 4 or 5 PA in the 2 spot, compared to the league average of 6. Since I'd guess that Hardy would be a better hitter than an average 2, I bet it's not even every 4. But the data is there for anyone to look at. I would genuinely like to be proven wrong.