6-12 start (Over or under)

[benji]

Unfortunately this month is starting to feel like september of 2008

[rluzinski]

The problem isn't 3-7. Its that you can't go another 3-7

 

Exactly. The Brewers had to average about an extra win a month over their projections to make the playoffs this year. Right now, they are 2 wins behind it. If they continue to lose, they'll have almost no chance of making the playoffs before May.

[JJHardy7]

Could be. This Brewers team just doesn't seem to catch any breaks or have any good juju going at this point.

 

Didn't the Brewers have some type of crazy win/loss in one run games or something last year? I seem to recall they had a crazy winning percentage along the lines of one run games or something like that. They just haven't gotten any breaks so far this year. I'm not too worried. It was nice to see Yo pitch well against a team that many have in the playoffs/World Series.

[Ennder]

I'm as sensitive to the losses as anyone and I fully agree that we could end our season in Sept and look back at the bad start as the reason why, but we clearly can have multiple 3-7 stretches and still make the playoffs, the Phillies did it last year as I already mentioned. We did it 4 times as someone else mentioned.

 

The slow start sucks, especially these last few games that were so darn close, but it isn't the end of the season. It doesnt' mean Melvin sucks, it doesn't mean there is no reason to be excited about the team, it doesn't mean we should start DFAing every marginal player on the team, it doesn't mean the pitching is going to be horrible all year, it doesn't mean we will be lucky to win 65 games. These are all things you can see on the front page today.

 

It means we got off to a crappy start and need to have a really good hot streak at some point to offset it.

[brewizard]

we got off to a crappy start and need to have a really good hot streak at some point to offset it.

 

Agreed. I'm pretty sure we'll get a hot streak going sooner or later. I hope for sooner so that we have less losing to offset...

 

But I must admit that I'm concerned. Who will become our losing streak stopper?

 

6-12 fast approaching.

[endaround]

The problem is the team doesn't have until September but July. Come July and the Brewers are below .500 The Brewers will be looking to cut costs. That means moving Cameron, seeing if they can move Kendall, and possibly moving Looper.

[crewcrazy]

6-12 is coming up, but I'm still having a hard time getting too worked up, and the pitching match-ups may not be as bad as expected. Suppan vs. Figueroa is a winnable game. In the Philly series, the Brewers have Parra vs Blanton (9.00 ERA), Bush against Hamels (11.17 ERA, 2.17 WHIP to start the year), and Gallardo vs. Myers. It looks like Houston's going to be throwing Felipe Paulino, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz.

 

If things go well starting on Sunday, the Brewers could be close to .500 by the time they get home again against Pittsburgh. But maybe I'm just overly optimistic.

[owbc]

Although others might not be, I am very concerned. It's not like these are "must-win" games coming up or anything, but this team needs to get going and fast. There are some other divisions where strange teams sit at the top, but not the NL Central. The Cardinals and Cubs are the most talented teams and they are at the top and in position to pull away early from the field. Sure, teams like the Phillies went through a few bad stretches, but there were also the Detroit Tigers who got off to a bad start and by the time they got going, it was too late. I have no doubt that we will get better and not spiral toward 90 losses. However, the Brewers were lucky to get in with 90 wins last year, usually it takes more than that. In addition, we're missing one of the best starters in franchise history (Ben Sheets) and I highly doubt we will outdo the greatest mid-season acquisition of all time this year. The biggest issue is that it isn't like many of the flaws are a big surprise. The offense depends on hitting home runs and strikes out too much. Sure enough, they aren't hitting home runs and as a result, they aren't scoring. The Brewers have a bad defense and sure enough, they are near the league lead in errors. I'm sure Braun, Fielder, and Hardy will wake up. I'm not so sure the pitching and defense will be where it needs to be. They needed to come up with at least 5 more wins than the projections to begin with, now they need more than 10. I was one of those who said "don't worry" last year, and now this year I think there's at least a 50% chance that they won't reach .500 until 0-0 in 2010.

[Ennder]

If you want to feel a bit better about things you can look at Yankee box scores, heh. They are down 15-2 again today.

 

I think endaround makes a pretty good point. If they don't have a bit of a hot streak by mid season it does change things a bit when it comes to adding players, trading players, limiting Parra's/Gallardo's innings etc.

[strawbossisevil]

The trouble with starting out 3-8 is this. In order to get to 90 wins, we now have to go 87-64 (23 games over .500) the rest of the way. Or a winning percentage of .576. It isn't impossible, but the Brewers are going to have to be very very good to make up for their slow start. Just for reference, only four teams were able to finish with that type of winning percentage last season (Cubs, TB Rays, Red Sox, and LA Angels). So we are going to have to play as good as those teams played in 2008, the rest of this year in order to have a shot at getting into the playoffs.

[squambaum]

The trouble with starting out 3-8 is this. In order to get to 90 wins, we now have to go 87-64 (23 games over .500) the rest of the way. Or a winning percentage of .576. It isn't impossible, but the Brewers are going to have to be very very good to make up for their slow start. Just for reference, only four teams were able to finish with that type of winning percentage last season (Cubs, TB Rays, Red Sox, and LA Angels). So we are going to have to play as good as those teams played in 2008, the rest of this year in order to have a shot at getting into the playoffs.

Does anyone think we have the rotation of any of the four teams you listed? Poor pitching plus streaky hitting just doesn't seem like a great recipe for success to me. Mark me down for under. This team is going to follow its bats so they could go on a hot streak and turn all of this around but I just don't like the way we are constructed. Some have suggested we only have till July to turn things around or we may be sellers but will Melvin be the one selling?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Im very concerned but anyone who reads my postings knows Im jaded. Its very frustrating watching this team play so far this year. I expected the pitching staff to struggle but the offense has been pitiful. Hopefully things get better soon or we will be buried before May begins and that would be very sad.

[kramnoj]

Some have suggested we only have till July to turn things around or we may be sellers but will Melvin be the one selling?

 

Are you suggesting Melvin is going to get fired during this season, or does this mean something that I'm not getting?

[squambaum]

Some have suggested we only have till July to turn things around or we may be sellers but will Melvin be the one selling?

 

Are you suggesting Melvin is going to get fired during this season, or does this mean something that I'm not getting?

It's what I meant. I tend to like Melvin but we have an 80 million dollar payroll and no pitching save the pitching Jack Z drafted. I'm not calling for Melvin's head but we know Mark A is a pretty involved owner and I think we tend to be a little hypocritical (is that a real word?) of Melvin since he did such a great job taking us from pitiful to playoffs. I don't really want to hijack the thread from the original poster though so this is probably best left for its own topic and probably a bit later in the year. It was just a thought.

[logan82]

Right now, they are 2 wins behind it. If they continue to lose, they'll have almost no chance of making the playoffs before May.

 

No team has any chance of making the playoffs before May. That is usually decided at the end of the season after looking at the records of all the teams.

 

Didn't the Brewers have some type of crazy win/loss in one run games or something last year?

 

Yes they did and the Cubs had a really poor record in one run games in either 2007 or 2008. If you continue to play close games, they will eventually break your way about half the time as long as your bullpen doesn't completely suck.

[JoeHova]

The problem is the team doesn't have until September but July. Come July and the Brewers are below .500 The Brewers will be looking to cut costs. That means moving Cameron, seeing if they can move Kendall, and possibly moving Looper.

 

The only problem there would be losing Cameron. Kendall being moved wouldn't hurt the team at all and may actually improve it. With Looper it's too soon to tell how much he'll help this year, but if he's pitching well enough for another team to want to trade for him, I think the return would be worthwhile. I can't imagine anybody would want Kendall, though we can all hope. I actually think Melvin will re-sign him to another 2 year deal at some point, but I hope that that's just pessimism and not something that actually has any chance of happening.

[Fatter than Joey]

I was one of those who said "don't worry" last year, and now this year I think there's at least a 50% chance that they won't reach .500 until 0-0 in 2010.

 

Just a quick math note, 0-0 is not .500 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Otherwise, a great, great post. We aren't likely to get the same boost we got last year from CC -- that's a great point.

[owbc]

Just a quick math note, 0-0 is not .500 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

In that case, I'll be optimistic and hope they start 2-0 and never hit .500 in 2010 either.

[Tbadder]

It's okay to be bad this year. I just hope the casual fan realizes this and doesn't stop buying tickets. It's so obvious that the long term direction of the team is very, very positive. If this is a down year so be it. There were too many teams that almost made the playoffs who improved while the Crew took a step backward. Despite the projections the Brewers weren't going to make the post season this year. But with a mini wave set to hit the Brewers next year and some expiring contracts one or two years away it's going to be very easy to be a playoff ready team again.

[Ennder]

We will finish this season over .500, so we won't be bad this year. Average to above average rotation, average to above average bullpen, above average offense, average to above average defense. Same team as last year minus one ace which means 84-85 wins instead of 90(we had a bit of luck to reach 90 last year so we really were more of an 88 win team probably).

[TooLiveBrew]

It means we got off to a crappy start and need to have a really good hot streak at some point to offset it.

 

I think it's only responsible to take into account that this bad start has involved a ton of really close games & bad luck for the Brewers. It'd be one thing to me if the team had played poorly enough to warrant a 3-8 record, but imho this 3-8 has been pretty fluky. I don't know when, but I do know this team will go on a hot streak this season that will likely offset just how bad this stretch of 11 games has been... and chances are the hot streak would be at least every bit as fluky & luck-based as this one.

[RU Rah Rah]

This team isn't the Nationals; it's a lot better than the 3-8 record suggests. But I'm not seeing a lot to suggest that they're going to be a legit contender for the WC, either. I think most of us were expecting a record slightly over .500, and I think that's still possible, given that there are still 150-some games remaining. Anything more than that would seriously surprise me, from what I've seen so far.

[BadgerFan]

It's okay to be bad this year. I just hope the casual fan realizes this and doesn't stop buying tickets. It's so obvious that the long term direction of the team is very, very positive. If this is a down year so be it.

I don't really see future rosters improving that much from this years. As far as our lineup 1-9 this is about as good as it's going to get. Gamel will be an upgrade at third but Escobar will be an equal to Hardy; other than that we don't have any major "can't miss" prospects that are close to ready....especially in the pitching department.

 

Speaking of our rotation, if you look at small market teams, most if not all of the good pitching is home grown and that has been the case for us as well. We're never going to go out and sign a star pitcher (and I don't think Melvin wants to take a gamble on hit or miss pitchers like Suppan again) so our farm system better start producing or we're going to be stuck in the situation we are now for years to come.

[mletto157]

Wow. There is some crazy overreactions going on in this thread. Think about it this way... this is roughly equivalent to the Packers starting 0-1. How many of you would call the season quits with a 0-1 record? Probably no one.

[rluzinski]

Right now, they are 2 wins behind it. If they continue to lose, they'll have almost no chance of making the playoffs before May.

 

No team has any chance of making the playoffs before May. That is usually decided at the end of the season after looking at the records of all the teams.

 

I didn't think I needed to guard against that interpretation but let me try to be more clear:

 

If they continue to lose, it may not even be May before they have no real chance of making the playoffs.