Can plate discipline be taught overnight? Re: Hart

[J Brew Crew]

I was listening to Bill S. drop pearls of wisdom the other night on TV and he talked about Hart's plate discipline and how improved it is. And he actually got me thinking.

How much can a fairly young player like Hart improve his plate discipline in one off season?

Statistically the sample size is way too small year to date. I do remember reading in Moneyball that a "good eye" couldn't be taught. And I also read in the Stat Analysis section here that the age a players walks the most is 35, which blew me away. I guess my opinion is that as a player learns the pitchers and matures towards his peak production that his walk rate should go up, yet I would not expect a dramatic spike in his walk rate in one year.

Can any of the stat guys wiegh in on this? For example Are dramatic spikes in walk rates common versus more a gradual improvement? If it is a gradual improvement as the norm, are there significant amount of outliers?

For the non stat heads: Can you think of a lot of guys who significant improved plate discipline in one jump?

In a nutshell I am hoping Hart can flip the switch, but I doubt it.

All the best

J

[dlk9s]

Sure, I think it can be taught. Part of the trick for young players is to understand how other teams are going to pitch them. For instance, it is pretty obvious that opposing pitchers are going to bust Hart down and away out of the zone. As he continues to see these pitches, he'll recognize them more quickly and be able to lay off of them. As he swings at fewer of these pitches, pitchers will have to start throwing him pitches in the zone.

[RightFieldCoder]

Or what will happen is that they start busting him up and in, getting him out and lowering his walk rate. I expect his walk rate to drop starting mid to late May as teams realize he's looking to lay off low and away. (re: Hardy's sudden lack of fastballs on the inside half after the first two months of 2007)

[Ennder]

Hart's plate discipline was better in previous years than last year so he always had better skills in the area. BB rate also generally does climb with age so it is definitely something a player learns with age.

 

However you have to be careful early because as was mentioned in the various pitching freak out threads, BBs are at their highest in April.

[bork]

Hart's plate discipline was better in previous years than last year so he always had better skills in the area.

 

Yes, he did walk some in the minors, 40-50 walks in 500 AB seasons. So it's not like he never took walks.

[JonnyLungs]

The best way to "learn" plate discipline in any significant way is to hit for more power and make pitchers afraid to throw you strikes.

 

Exhibit A: Sammy Sosa

[bjkrautk]

Hart's plate discipline was better in previous years than last year so he always had better skills in the area. BB rate also generally does climb with age so it is definitely something a player learns with age.

 

However you have to be careful early because as was mentioned in the various pitching freak out threads, BBs are at their highest in April.

Someone should also point out that he's seeing the ball so well that his strikeout rate is also up. I don't want to start the "are strikeouts bad" discussion, so much as I want to refute the notion that Corey has suddenly developed a heightened appreciation for what pitches are and are not strikes.

 

Looking at the Fangraphs, his O-Swing % thusfar have barely moved from his career numbers. (He's actually swinging at slightly less of everything....which wouldn't be a bad thing, and explains in part why he's seeing more pitches.) I don't think he's discovered plate discipline, so much as he's just being thrown more pitches outside of the zone.

[southpaw121505]

as teams realize he's looking to lay off low and away.

But he's not just laying off that pitch, he's going with it and crushing it. All 3 of his HRs are on that pitch. That combined with an increased walk rate is whats impressive. He's not just giving up on that pitch while production suffers. He's laying off it when it's unhittable and driving it the other way when it's a good pitchers pitch but still hittable with that approach. (cough, HALL, cough)

[GormanHarvey]

But he's not just laying off that pitch, he's going with it and crushing it. All 3 of his HRs are on that pitch. That combined with an increased walk rate is whats impressive. He's not just giving up on that pitch while production suffers. He's laying off it when it's unhittable and driving it the other way when it's a good pitchers pitch but still hittable with that approach. (cough, HALL, cough)

I love the fact that Corey looks less lost at the plate and seeing him drive the ball the other way is awesome! He has the perfect frame to do it. But he is not crushing the low and away pitch. I know what you are saying southpaw, but he has swung at a few and layed off most - and that is a good sign. But the balls he has banged to right/right-center have pretty much been hangers, not pitchers pitches. Pitcher pitches are called that because you can't do too much with them - especially the one on the outer black at the knees. He has looked much, much better though thus far and him hitting hanging off speed pitches to right shows that he is letting the ball travel farther through the hitting zone before hitting it which is what good hitters do!

[RU Rah Rah]

as teams realize he's looking to lay off low and away.

But he's not just laying off that pitch, he's going with it and crushing it. All 3 of his HRs are on that pitch.

Wasn't at least one up and away? (I seem to recall that, but I'm not sure.)

[DHonks]

I don't think you can be taught plate discipline, but you can learn it. It's about the approach. When I played little league, I truly believed a walk was as good as a hit, and I rarely swung before there were two strikes on me. I was daring the pitchers to throw 3 strikes before they threw four balls.

 

I do believe plate discipline can be learned, though. Sosa and Guerrero come to mind as guys that learned how to walk.

[PKBadger]

This summer, from Attanasio Pictures/Melvin Entertainment:

 

Sometimes, you have to learn how to run before you learn how to walk...

 

Zachary Ty Bryan stars in "Swinging Away: The Corey Hart Story"

 

http://www.celebritywar.com/pictures/zachery-ty-bryan.jpg

[southpaw121505]

Yeah you're right Gorman, I went back and looked and the first one was the only one that was a decent pitch, was a lower half change up but still hittable. The other two were sliders, one was decent and one was a hanger. I agree though that it's a good sign that he's letting the ball travel. Even if its hanging you can top it off if you're out in front too much.

[bjkrautk]

Just because I remain curious, I'm going to post Hart's Plate Discipline #s from Fangraphs (the link is in my first e-mail). I'm curious to see if a larger sample does ultimately cause him to revert to previous years form.

 

27.0 OSwing% 64.2 ZSwing% 44.2 Swing% 36.7 OContact% 86.9 ZContact% 70.3 Contact% 46.1 Zone% 60.3 F-Strike%

 

One of the things that really stuck out at me - to the point that I remember it, even though I didn't post it - was that Hart's Zone % was around 40% (about 13% off his career number, and 11% lower than the lowest season of his career). During the first few weeks of the season, pitchers were throwing him more balls than strikes. As that seems to be leveling off, Hart's swinging at pitches outside the zone at near exactly the rate he has for the rest of his MLB career; his strikeouts are up, and he has only walked once in the past week.

 

 

I'm sticking with this thread, mainly because I find it interesting, but also because I'm hoping other people will follow my lead and post those numbers off fangraphs every few weeks. I'd love to see what kinds of trends develop as the sample size increases; will there be a reversion to the mean, or the same signs of optimism which insipred the thread in the first place?

[Oldcity]

The best way to "learn" plate discipline in any significant way is to hit for more power and make pitchers afraid to throw you strikes.

 

Exhibit A: Sammy Sosa

 

To me this is a chicken-egg thing. I'd probably argue the best way to hit for power is by learning to lay off bad pitches so you get better pitches to drive.

[bjkrautk]

4/22/09: 27.0 OSwing% 64.2 ZSwing% 44.2 Swing% 36.7 OContact% 86.9 ZContact% 70.3 Contact% 46.1 Zone% 60.3 F-Strike%

5/21/09: 22.5 OSwing% 66.6 ZSwing% 44.5 Swing% 41.3 OContact% 80.5 ZContact% 70.6 Contact% 49.9 Zone% 55.0 F-Strike%

 

Interesting update. Hart's actually doing a better job of swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls out of the zone. Unfortunately, he's still doing a lot of swinging and missing; his Contact % and ZContact % are the lowest in his career (excluding his 1 PA in 2004, for obvious reasons). That's why, regardless of his walk numbers, he's still on a pace to strikeout 161 times this season. Pitchers are throwing him more strikes, as his Zone % is reverting to the mean.

[bjkrautk]

4/22/09: 27.0 OSwing% 64.2 ZSwing% 44.2 Swing% 36.7 OContact% 86.9 ZContact% 70.3 Contact% 46.1 Zone% 60.3 F-Strike%

5/21/09: 22.5 OSwing% 66.6 ZSwing% 44.5 Swing% 41.3 OContact% 80.5 ZContact% 70.6 Contact% 49.9 Zone% 55.0 F-Strike%

6/25/09: 24.4 OSwing% 70.2 ZSwing% 47.1 Swing% 51.1 OContact% 82.3 ZContact% 74.1 Contact% 49.6 Zone% 57.8 F-Strike%

 

Nearly all of his plate discipline numbers are within a fairly normal deviation from his career numbers (2-3% -- first pitch strikes being the one real outlier).

 

Given that Hart has enjoyed a solid June (.845 OPS) and April (.873) sandwiching a lousy May (.626), it is interesting to start seeing what varied from month-to-month, and how did that have an effect on performance. Counterintuitively, his OSwing% seems to track in direct proportion to his OPS -- he swung at more bad pitches during his good months than during his bad month.

 

I'll be interested to see if his contact% continues to go up on a monthly basis; his strikeout pace is now down to a projected 149.