Is this Weeks breakout year?

[Tedaldtada]

Man, if Rickie really does finally put it all together, it will be one very difficult day when he signs or is traded somewhere else. We have all (mostly) been pulling for this guy so long, that it would really kill me if we had to let him go after he played his guts out (and is finally seeing results) for us. He is def. seeing results too. He is smashing line drives everywhere, rocking mistake pitches, and he is even going to right field. His walks will come once the rest of the NL realizes this is not a guy you can mess around with anymore.

 

One thing is for certain, I have never questioned Rickie's desire to improve, and I have never heard/read anything different.

[mletto157]

'he has no holes in his swing'

 

Someone on Brewerfan wrote this last year too. He had a friend that was a major league reliever who said that about Rickie. He said he was the best pure hitter on the Brewers because he had no holes in his swing and if he could gain some confidence people better watch out. He said Prince was a GREAT mistake hitter, and that if Braun wasn't the cockiest player in baseball, he definitely is up there.

 

I have been thinking for a long time, and people on here have said the same thing about moving Rickie down in the order, but the problem was we didn't have anyone better to lead off. With Harts OBA skills this year, it seems like as long as he keeps it up, he'll thrive in that roll. I was thinking about the lineup if they could keep Rickie down and I came up with something along the lines of: Hart, Braun, Prince, Rickie... then the rest stays the same. Getting Braun & Prince extra PA's per game/season would be great. But really, we could probably switch any of those three (Braun, Prince, Rickie) around and I'd be happy with it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for posting on that, mletto.

 

 

But really, we could probably switch any of those three (Braun, Prince, Rickie) around and I'd be happy with it.

 

Me too... but the #s 3 & 4 spots are so important in regards to player status that I doubt Braun & Prince would hit anywhere but those two slots. So then imo the best-case scenario would be Hart-Hardy-Braun-Prince-Weeks -- and I'd be fine with that. The only thing there is that you're banking on Hart having made a fundamental change in his approach & skillset, as opposed to his BB rate being the result of a small sample.

[pogokat]

why not hart-weeks-braun-fielder...that keeps the speed and obp on the right side of prince and braun...i don't see any reason to bat hardy before any of those other guys...

[Tbadder]

I think what we're missing here is that Weeks deserves to breakout. We all know how hard he works if what we read is true. We all know that his struggles have been public and that the average fan has crucified him at the park and on talk-radio. I'm really, really happy for him and hope he continues his improvement. I'd like to see something like .260/.345 with 25 ding-dongs. I know he's still got a ways to go, but I think we have every reason to be upbeat.

[Ennder]

He is still popping up more than almost any player in baseball and he still strikes out too much. I'm going to put my money on this being a mini hot streak and his average dropping back under .250 though I really hope I'm wrong. I know he looks different at the plate and maybe the power spike is for real but I just don't see that AVG and OBP going good places with how he has been hitting so far.

[twobrewers]

I agree with Ennder.

 

Weeks seems to be replacing his OBP with SLG.

 

Weeks' OBP is down almost 40 points from his career high in 2007. Not to mention he is actually on pace for a career high in errors. (And that is assigning an error to Hardy for Weeks' boneheaded behind the back shuffle)

 

The perception of Rickie Weeks has improved more than his productivity.

[fondybrewfan]

Personally I think it is just a matter of time before his walks pick up again. If he keeps pounding the ball, pitchers are going to shy away from him a bit. IMO the last coupleRickie had so little offensive confidence that he was extremely patient and is number #1 goal was to work the pitcher and try to get a walk. This year he has more confidence and has been quite a bit more aggressive. Plus I guess I don't remember him swinging at too many terrible pitches this year either. A couple 2 walk games or 8 walks in a week and the OBP will be right back up there.

[cwolf2012]

His small sample UZR/150 for this season is 24.6, and has been worth 2.9 runs on defense thus far according to UZR. That is well in line with my perceptions of his defense.

 

His offense has been about the same despite the much higher SLG this year. The 40 points he's losing in OBP are being regained by the .505 SLG, but his total value isn't any higher that it's ever been on offense, it just looks like he's better to the layperson because his AVG is up and he's hitting the ball harder. If he can tack on 20-30 more points of OBP and maintain the power (very tall order, I know), he would be a top 5 2B so far. But right now he's still the same average 2B that he's been for a while.

[Tedaldtada]

just looks like he's better to the layperson because his AVG is up and he's hitting the ball harder.

I have to think that even a non-layperson would say a guy is better if he is hitting the ball harder and (and I think) more frequently than ever. Put me in the camp that think his walks will catch up.

 

That pop out rate is interesting to me. How is Weeks' rate compared to the rest of the league? I'll look too, but just saying...

[M Skjellyfetti]

I know this is a small sample and it's kind of cherrypicking stats, but it appears that Weeks remembered that he needs to walk recently. Since April 26th, the first time he walked after opening day, his walk rate has been at 11.1%, which is around where his expected walk rate should be. Take it for what it's worth because we really can't tell what's going on at this point, but it is possible that Weeks has broken out of his walk-less funk and is turning back into the OBP machine we all knew and loved.

[theavrock]

On the air Ueke was just gushing about how much better Weeks looks in the field, saying he doesnt rush his throws or turns on the DP. Also was talking about how his approach at the plate is a lot better as well.

[Ennder]

He definitely looks better in the field this year but to be honest he looked a ton better last year as well and the fielding metrics suggested he was pretty close to average last year. He just faded late last year and that seems to have stuck in peoples heads.

[Oldcity]

Not sure if this totally belongs here, but I just wanted to mention that the ball he hit in the first inning was the hardest ball I've seen hit all year. It reached the wall without ever getting more than 15 feet off the ground, and almost got out. He's really hitting the ball hard right now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Put me in the camp that expects Weeks' walk rate to increase - I don't see a big difference in Weeks' approach at the plate as far as taking pitches...I think the early dip in walks and increase in slugging over such a small sample has more to do with Weeks actually putting pitches in play by making solid contact early this season, when in past years those pitches may have been fouled off. An at bat can't be turned into a walk when a hitter sees a good pitch to hit and clobbers it.

 

At the start of the season, Weeks was one of the Brewers teams had no problem pitching to - my guess is as advanced scouting tells teams to start being more careful with him, he'll draw more walks if he keeps a good approach at the plate.

[joepepsi]

But right now he's still the same average 2B that he's been for a while.

His current OPS is 82 points higher than last season. That's significant improvement.

[splitterpfj]

I think Rickie looks much more confident this year, both at the plate and in the field. He's not up there flailing away, he's looking for something to hit, and putting good swings on the ball...and in the field, he actually looks like he expects to make the play, instead of standing out there thinking himself into trouble.

 

Who knows what the stats will tell us at season's end, but so far, I do think Rickie is much improved over anything I've seen from him since he came up.

[rluzinski]

Let's look at wOBA, which properly weighs all the batting events (unlike OPS):

 

Weeks' wOBA:

 

2007: .365

2009: .352

09 Marcel Projection: .343

 

So he's beating his projection so far but he hasn't even been as valuable as he was in 2007n offensively.

 

And he's made some significant changes to his approach so far, according to data at fangraphs. He's swinging at a lot more pitches and most of them have been outside the strikezone. He's made a lot contact on them, though, so his overall contact rate has held steady.

 

Way too early to make conclusions about anything, though. I'm glad he's being a bit more aggressive but I fear that he just doen't have the pitch recognition skills to ever be a dominating hitter. He seems more like a guessor, like Hall.

[endaround]

I think what people are reacting to more than anything is his large jump in LD% from last year. Hard not to notice a 40% increase

[silversurferr]

Ennder: Post 80 = exactamundo!

[mnevis]

To me, its the adjustments AB to AB. He is receiving good coaching for the first time as a Major Leaguer. Most players regress to their mean. The only difference to me is he is using right center and right field way more than he had in the past. It's just like, when a pitcher can through their off speed stuff for strikes. It's one more thing to consider, when you are at the plate. I would imagine it's tough, when the pitching coach and staff game plan for a hitter and observe the player's willingness to go to the opposite field. Plus, Rickie has been pretty good in RISP situations. Teams are going to be a little more careful. He is developing. Lastly, being a toolsy player, he is going to age well without much drop off. He is, definitely, a "growth stock".

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure if this totally belongs here, but I just wanted to mention that the ball he hit in the first inning was the hardest ball I've seen hit all year. It reached the wall without ever getting more than 15 feet off the ground, and almost got out. He's really hitting the ball hard right now.

 

Yeah, that was a missle. Those are the types of line drives he's been hitting this season, imo, though. In fact there are a few that stand out in my memory that actually carried all the way out to the opposing LF for an out instead of dropping into LF for base hits, which is what it looked like they'd do off the bat.

 

 

Way too early to make conclusions about anything, though. I'm glad he's being a bit more aggressive but I fear that he just doen't have the pitch recognition skills to ever be a dominating hitter. He seems more like a guessor, like Hall.

 

Interesting -- honestly I think Rickie has about the best pitch recognition on the team... guys I could see him being behind at this point are Fielder, Counsell, Kendall, & maybe Hardy. I don't view Weeks as a guess hitter at all, but that could just be a reflection of my poor perception http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

I think they should approach Weeks about a contract extension. Getting a 2nd member of this core would really help create some surplus talent throughout the organization, as all the top prospects now are earmarked to replace somebody. This would make a mid-season trade easier.

[fondybrewfan]

I am not sure if this is true or not but it seems like Rickie is striking out a ton so far this year. I don't really like his 32:10 K to BB ratio going into tonights game. Obviously when he makes contact he is really crushing the ball but it seems like he is no where near as patient as he was last year. Maybe it is just a confidence thing, Rickie seems to be much more aggressive since he has had some early success as far as power is concerned.

 

If he could get that K:BB ratio down to around 2:1 I would be much happier. He still seems to have trouble with the outside breaking pitches, he has got to start laying off of those.

[owbc]

He seems better suited to the #5 spot based on the change in numbers. I was always opposed to Hart as a leadoff hitter, but it might be time for a switch. Counsell also deserves a look as leadoff hitter.