Is this Weeks breakout year?

[rluzinski]

He had a 30% breakout rate in PECOTA and his 90th percentile line is .292/.407/.504 with a more reasonable 75th line of .282/.393/.478.

 

Has BP ever explained how they calculate those breakout rates? Have they ever proven that their method works?

[RU Rah Rah]

And then you have him dropping a routine throw at first! It's what is so maddening about Rickie. (Overall trend looks promising, though.)

 

Edit: Well, ok, maybe not that promising. He has exactly one walk so far. (Even Duffy has more.)

[ELCABALLO45]

.233/.298/.419

 

I hope that if this is his "breakout" year, that those numbers improve.

[trwi7]

Yeah, he's seen a slight power increase at the expense of his OBP. Not a good sign.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

*cough* Brett Lawrie *cough* In all seriousness, i want Rickie to succeed, but i still haven't seen anything to show me that he's an above average MLB 2B. Even in the years of Vina, Belliard, etc a .275/.350/.450/.800 line was expected. If Rickie can't do that with atleast average defense, i think we need to move on in the offseason.

[Ennder]

Vina only had a line that good 1 time for the Brewers and had 3 years of sub .700 OPS. Belliard only put up a line that good one time. I think you are overestimating the average 2B a bit. Very few 2B have an OPS of .800, last year NL 2B put up a .746 OPS overall.

[RU Rah Rah]

Yeah, he's seen a slight power increase at the expense of his OBP. Not a good sign.

I was thinking about this yesterday when he smoked that double to left field. It reminded me of that absolute rocket of a HR he hit last year to LF in Shea. Don't get me wrong -- it's not that I somehow dislike hard-hit balls. But part of me wishes that Rickie didn't try to crush everything.

 

I remember one of our BF.net AZ contingent commenting last year that he was hitting some bombs in BP at Chase Field. I'd much prefer seeing him try to drive the ball into the gap in right-center.

 

It's almost as if he wants to follow the Soriano model of being a leadoff hitter?

[Oldcity]

I think it's way too early to state with any confidence that he's sacrificing OBP for power. It's just nice to see him hitting fairly well so far, but he's had several better stretches in the past. I agree that we'll have an idea by the All-Star Break.

[GormanHarvey]

Ru Rah Rah - I don't think its so much that he is trying to crush everything or that he is trying to model himself after Soriano (I don't even like typing that name). Its just that he has incredible bat speed and when he does square up a ball it is going to jump off his bat and be a rocket. And not so much this year seeing he has cut down some on the amount he chops down at the ball, but in previous years with a swing like that combined with his bat speed it would put a ton of back spin on the ball causing it to really fly.

[topper09er]

You cant really sacrafice OBP for power, OBP comes from walks which comes from balls out of the zone and you cant really increase your power by swinging at balls. You can, however, sacrafice AVE for power by trying to crush everything and swinging at balls and stiking out/not making good contact, but Rickie is hitting .271 right now so thats not happening. A perfect example of this is Adam Dunn who averages 40 HRs a year with a .380 OBP and a .247 AVE. You could maybe sacrafice OBP for power by swinging at more pitches and taking strikes and going deeper into counts and drawing more walks, but if you are trading a walk for an extra-base hit that is fine with me.

 

All we can tell right now is that Rickie seems to be driving the ball to all field more than he has in the past. I will agree the most annoying thing about him is how he NEVER changes his approach no matter the COUNT and would always strike out taking huge swings, basically always trying to crush everything like Ru Rah Rah says. I have no problem with him trying to crush everything until he has 2 strikes and it seems he may be doing better at this so far this year which may explain his higher ave, but its pretty early.

[Oldcity]

The nice thing about swinging hard is that sometimes you hit the ball hard. I don't have a problem with guys swinging hard, and I'd rather have that than the Jason Kendall/Luis Castillo approach with two strikes.

[mnevis]

From my vantage point, as some have suggested, he is swinging at strikes more often than in the past. He seems to be laying off the low outside pitch. He is doing well against solid average to below average pitching. It's going to be tough against the Hardens and Santanas of the world. However, if you wear out the 3 through 5 pitchers, that sounds like a breakout season in the making.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like what I have seen so far. Its early yet, but like Stevo said by the All-Star break we should have a better idea of where Rickie is at.

[GAME05]

of course i'm rooting for him, but the only statistics that stick out from last year are some power numbers. maybe the added muscle really has made a difference or maybe he's the same player as last year who just happened to hit his second HR a little sooner than he normally would have.

[chowyo123]

or maybe he's the same player as last year who just happened to hit his second HR a little sooner than he normally would have.

I know this is nitpicking, but he actually had 3 HR by April 12th of last year. Granted, this season started a week later. Also, in 2007 he had 4 homers by April 16th. Pretty useless stats though.

[pete]

Don't forget that the season has started against some great pitchers.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

rickies lack of walks scares me. correct me if i'm wrong but he hasn't had a walk since his first AB of the season. his OBP is going to struggle if that holds true for the whole season.

[rluzinski]

According to fangraphs, Weeks is swinging at more pitches overall (swing%), with all of them basically being balls (O-swing%):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1849&position=2B

 

IMO, way too early to make any definitive statements about a new approach, however.

[Gobias Industries]

I looked that up last night as well, rluz. Kind of odd, as it goes against what the naked eye would have you believe from watching the first dozen games.

 

His LD% is up to 22%, which is nice, and he's also hitting more flyballs, so hopefully he can up his HR total. But yeah, he really needs to walk every 10 at-bats or so because of how much he strikes out.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

appears rickie is out of the game tonight after 1 inning casey is in the game

[nate82]

Rickie with another good night. Hart is also looking good at the plate showing a lot of plate discipline at least just watching the game it seems like that. Hopefully Rickie and Corey will both continue staying hot at the top of the order.

[GormanHarvey]

Rickie with another good night. Hart is also looking good at the plate showing a lot of plate discipline at least just watching the game it seems like that. Hopefully Rickie and Corey will both continue staying hot at the top of the order.

Yeah I am loving those 2 at the top of the order right now. I would like to see them get the chance to run a bit more, but its probably not going to happen with Braun and Prince behind them. Tough to potentially make outs on the basepaths with those 2 coming up.

[ILuvDaBush]

The summer of Rickie. The guy gave me a HR tonight on my birthday. I think we all know he needs to re-evaluate his strike zone judgement but it would seem this is going to be the year.

[mnevis]

To me the walks will come because of the series of adjustments made by Rickie and the pitching he has faced. Early on he was driving the ball up the middle and to right. So, advanced scouting has another element to worry about. He has not really chased many pitches low and away, so how do you pitch to him? Maybe pound him inside, but Rickie has a good eye in off the plate. You don't want to walk him because of the Law Firm of Hart, Braun and Fielder. He gets pitches to pull now and he is making the opposition pay. I think we will see an adjustment by pitchers to get Rickie to swing at "their" pitches. With that, I can see Rickie getting more walks because he is making the adjustment with the pitchers. I thank Dale Sveum for helping Rickie to anticipate the adjustments to his success.

[mikevan1818]

Has anyone else noticed the last few games that the TV feed will once and a while cut to the dugout and catch Weeks and Macha side-by-side talking during an inning? They always seem to be deep in conversation with hands moving obviously talking about some part of the game/strategy etc. I don't recall seeing Rickie as intentive in the dugout before (not that I see the dugout often or anything), but I've seen it at least 3-4 different games this year. It seems to me that Weeks has been rejuvinated this year and playing a bit more relaxed. Just making an observation - and wondering if anyone else has noticed it as well.