It's probably about time for a Nelson Cruz thread

[TheCrew07]

I think what JJ is getting at is that best case scenario any draft pick is 3 years away from the time you acquire the pick, if they sign in that first summer and get some playing time in. Remember that the first 15 picks in the draft are protected so there's no grabbing college bats and arms that are close to MLB ready, those players will be long gone. However if the team acquires 2 top prospects instead of 2 picks, those prospects are likely at AA and a year a away from making an impact at the MLB level. Top prospects don't tend to spend much time in AAA but if they were in AAA well then they may be of immediate assistance.

 

I think best case for the Brewers is too lock up core position players, lock up the young pitchers they have confidence in, and work diligently to keep recycling high quality arms through the system. The Brewers are not going to be in position to sign top of the rotation arms, it's not just going to happen, even if they had money, it doesn't make sense to have that high of a percentage of the payroll tied into one player. I don't want to say the team lied, but in a way they did, they made CC a competitive offer they knew he wasn't going to accept, in effect a savvy PR move to keep fans high on the team and shift blame onto the player. The length of contract, dollar amounts, and high injury risk just aren't worth the reward, the pitchers the Brewers can afford are your back of the rotation starters like Suppan and Looper. So in my opinion it's best for the team to stay away from FA pitching and if they have to make moves in FA stick to bats and position players. There's greater bang for the buck in position players.

 

I hope the front office utilizes a good mix of trades and letting players walk, the key is to make the correct decisions about what players to do which with, and I know it's not as simple as it sounds. Right now I come down on the trade side of the fence because we don't have any viable alternatives to acquire top of the rotation talent and we have very solid position talent at AAA and AA. I hope in the future the team has better options and more depth all the way around. I REALLY like the staff at WI, there are some intriguing arms at BC, Jeffress at AA, and the younger kids like Odorizzi, Lasker, and Lintz are still in rookie ball. If the team can pull 1 arm from each starting pitcher group we'll be in a good shape, 2 arms from each group and the team will be in a position that I haven't witnessed in my lifetime with pitching depth.

 

Whomever said Z and Melvin made the draft picks together I believe is in error. I couldn't find the article, and maybe it was audio, but I remember the draft room dynamic as Melvin being kept in the loop, but not a major decision maker. He certainly consulted with the scouts and Z before making trades, but how could he possibly offer an educated opinion in the draft room when hasn't seen the kids play or spoken with them? This isn't the NFL draft, it's a different animal with an entirely different dynamic. I may be entirely wrong here and crossing up different stories, but I'm pretty sure Melvin doesn't make draft day decisions.

[Ennder]

Cruz is hitting .262 with a .292 OBP and .649 OPS over his last 23 games now, 22 K, 4 BB. He is down to an .803 OPS and .322 OBP on the year now.

 

Season is still early but maybe people won't be so upset at losing him after all.

[TheCrew]

Didn't he also clear waivers at the start of last season?

[Baldkin]

He's been hot the last couple weeks...

 

Nelson Cruz #17 RF

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.296	14	36	.360	.592

for a .952 OPS thus far.

[fondybrewfan]

No matter how good of a player Nelson becomes I am never going to view him as one that got away. He was just never going to get a chance with the Brewers. Its not like we gave up on him after 100 major league AB's, we never even gave him a chance. He has always had a ton of potential but there was a reason he was in the minors for so long.

 

I hope he continues to do well as long as he stays in the AL. What is with all these hitters that have crazy good years in Texas? Arod, Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Tex. That ballpark seems to do wonder for the career of a power hitter.

[MJLiverock]

I hear what your saying Fondy, Cruz always seemed to be a guy who produced great numbers but never got much attention and was viewed as a throw in in the Rangers trade. I am sure the Brewers looked at Hart as the guy to keep and Cruz was also blocked by Jenkins and Lee in the corners while he was in AAA. I remember there being some criticism of Cruz's ability to hit breaking stuff and he did K a lot but supposedly had a stellar arm iirc. Hart K'd his fair share in the minors as well but was a few years younger at most levels, for whatever reason Cruz did't play much minor league ball until he was 20.

 

As time goes by this may seem like a regrettable decision by the Brewers but most likely just a case of banking on Hart and thinking Cruz had no where to play.

 

Interestingly, in 1700 plate appearances, Hart is .274/.323/.476, with much better vs. LH numbers but seeing a decline in his overall numbers over the last year or so.

 

Cruz in about 800 plate appearance is .262/.324/.470 with better numbers vs. RH pitchers and in the short run, trending upwards vs. his short career averages. (playing in Texas probably helps his numbers somewhat if Texas really is a hitter's ballpark)

[sargennm]

Before he was traded, I remember there was a lot of talk that Cruz couldn't hit ANY breaking pitches. And I remember a fair portion of the fan base being ticked that Cruz was traded, more so than Lee. He was highly touted by both the brewers and and Brewers fans.

 

But even with his recent success, I don't see how you can say Cruz is one that got away. Hart and Braun made it to the show earlier and produced in the ML, which it took longer for Cruz to do. If he continued to waste away in AAA, and failed to produce during his limited chance with the Brewers in the bigs, most fans would bemoan the idea that we didn't trade him when his value was higher.

 

Cruz's ascension to the majors is a nice story, but I trust Melvin and Co. made the right choice in which player to keep.

[Kaukauna]

I think Doug Melvin would also be happy with Cruz's contributions to Texas -- after all, he has previously said good trades are meant to work out for both sides, even if we feel differently.

 

I realize none of these players compare exactly to Cruz, who was much more highly-regarded than many of Milwaukee's traded prospects through the years, but Melvin has a list of traded prospects who never panned out, too. The jury remains out on Will Inman and Steve Garrison in the Linebrink deal, but from 2003-07, there were a lot of guys Melvin moved who never even approached "ones that got away" status (and yes, I realize some of these were not even prospects at all after a year or two in the big leagues, but they all had upside).

 

Among them: Brian Mallette, Matt Yeatman, Jason Belcher, Ty Taubenheim, Wes Obermueller, Justin Barnes, Brian Wolfe, Enrique Cruz, Wilfredo Laureano, Dana Eveland, Dave Krynzel, Ben Hendrickson, Jorge de la Rosa and Jose Capellan.

 

Eveland had some flashes, Taubenheim started a few games for Toronto and JDLR occasionally shows that he can pitch in the big leagues. But it's not like Melvin has a history of dumping prospects who ultimately help somebody else. Then again, I guess he doesn't have much of a history dealing AWAY prospects with Milwaukee until recently.

[Postseason2006]

I never liked the trade that was made. Melvin likes getting his guys and needless to say most have not panned out for the Brewers or not of yet. He admitted he wanted Gerut, Nix, and Mench.

[endaround]

He also wanted Doug Davis.

[Baldkin]

For half a year of Carlos Lee, and an OF who was never going to play in Milwaukee, we got Coco Cordero for a year and a half... pretty good deal if you ask me.

[BrewCrewForever]

While Cruz would sure be nice to have now seeing how good his stats are this season. I'm not ready to say he will be a better player then Hart in the long run. Time will tell, I want to see a couple more years out of both guys and then re-evaluate.

[dadofandrew]

I'm shocked Cruz is doing as well as he is. Some guys develop later, even guys with seemingly no plate discipline. He's a power/athletic guy, and he proves that those are tough to give up on.

 

Even moreso, I believe he's a good enough defender to play CF. I'd still make that trade in a second, but he's doing far better than I would have guessed.

[Ennder]

He has certainly been way better than average in a corner OF role so far this season. He makes Hart look like a pile of puke not that Hart needs any help looking like that with his pathetic plate approach and poor throwing arm.

[Postseason2006]

endaround wrote:

---

He also wanted Doug Davis.

When you constantly throw darts.....

[Invader3K]

I never liked the trade that was made. Melvin likes getting his guys and needless to say most have not panned out for the Brewers or not of yet. He admitted he wanted Gerut, Nix, and Mench.

 

I don't recall any of those guys being touted as long term solutions for the Brewers, though. Certainly not as regular starters, at least.

[PeaveyFury]

When you constantly throw darts.....

 

Isn't that kind of the point of being a good GM? Always exploring your options....

[Hammer]

As our team gets better, guys that are better players are going to be good players on other teams. You just can't keep everyone and that is what happened here. Is it tough to see? Yep, but that is bound to start happening more and more...

[RU Rah Rah]

I have to say that I cringe every time I hear about a Laynce Nix (7) or Cruz (17) HR, especially with Hart's recent woes. The idea that Cruz has more HR than Fielder or Braun at this point in the season is just plain silly....

[TooLiveBrew]

Even moreso, I believe he's a good enough defender to play CF.

 

I couldn't disagree more. I think he's adequate at a corner spot, but I really wouldn't want to see him in CF.

[jjfanec]

I figured i would pull this thread back out now that Cruz has cooled considerably. Average is down to .258, OBP at .325, but still has a nice OPS at .848. In June he is hitting .169, and an OPS of .620. He only gets talked about when he was raking earlier in the year, but it will be interesting to see where his numbers settle this year.

[Ennder]

He certainly has some big holes in his swing so I could see pitchers adjusting to him and leading to a long slump(not unlike what they did to Hart). Question becomes does he adjust back or not.

[The Truth]

Who knows if we could have gotten Cordero if we didn't include Cruz. I think we couldn't have. Landing Cordero led to our first non-losing season in many many years, which in terms of fan support was a literal precursor to our first playoff appearance in decades.

 

Yes I'd like Nelson Cruz on the Brewers but its important to not look at things in a vacuum. The way our bullpen blew up that year, without Cordero it might have been another disaster season, then the Crew would have made less $$$ from fan support, etc etc

[Ayt]

Texas only wanted Cruz since DM insisted on getting Mench back to replace Lee on the MLB roster. DM countered by saying if we gave up Cruz we'd want Nix back in return.

[zzzmanwitz]

Congrats to Nelson Cruz on being named to the All Star team. He will be replacing Torii Hunter.