It's probably about time for a Nelson Cruz thread

[Invader3K]

OK, fair enough. I agree that the lack of up & coming pitching on the near horizon is definitely a bit worrisome. Maybe Jeffress will somehow pan out yet, but I won't hold my breath based on what some people more knowledgeable than me have said on this board about him.

 

Worst case, if we are that far behind at the All Star break, maybe some trades are made for prospects that are almost MLB ready, or maybe Melvin will have some more flexibility this off-season to get someone.

[monty57]

Mark A. says 2.8M in attendance is our break even point. What if we are 10 games below 500 at the all star break? Even with 2M tickets sold we may have trouble reaching that number. What options will Melvin have? He won't be able to dump most of the high salaries we have. Soup, Riske, Hall, Cameron, Kendall. Those 5 alone account for more than the entire Marlin roster. I may be getting ahead of myself a tad, but there is some cause for concern.

 

There's always a risk of a bad season, even for teams with talent. Soup is untradeable at this point, unless he really turns it around. Riske is injured, so he'll really have to show something to be tradeable, but I still think that if he can get healthy, he'll have value this year & next. I think Cameron & Kendall would be pretty easy to deal at the deadline, as half of their salaries will be eaten up, Cameron's off to a very hot start, and some team would like a veteran catcher. Hall will depend on if he can keep playing like he is. I'm not betting on it, but I sure hope he keeps it up. We could also trade Hardy and let Escobar play if we're out of the race. That would save money and bring us some really good talent from a team in the hunt looking for a SS

 

Now, our payroll is nearly maxed out and we lack pitching. What arms do you see coming up from our system this year or next? (I like Dillard)

Signing free agent pitching doesn't fit the small market model. The risk is way too high and you end up overpaying for 500 pitchers.

 

I ranted all offseason about our lack of pitching for this season, and Melvin finally pulled the trigger on Looper to round out our MLB staff, and Wright and Green for minor league depth. I'm still worried, especially with Suppan looking the way he has, but Melvin did address the problem. If/when someont goes down, it's likely that McClung and DiFelice will be a long term solutions, while Wright, Green or someone else from Nashville would likely get a spot start. It's unlikely, but possible that Jeffress could be called up from AA if he's having a good season and we lose a starter.

 

I think everyone knows this, but it's good to remember that most teams aren't very willing to trade away young pitchers, because, as you alluded to, free agent pitching is expensive and risky. There are people on this board that know a lot more about our minor leaguers than I, but I'd say next year's staff will be Yo & Parra (both probably signed to Braun-type deals), Looper, Bush and either Suppan or Jeffress. There is also the possibility that they trade JJ or even Hart or Fielder for a top of the rotation starter. We've spent a lot of our recent surplus of draft picks on pitching. They're still young, but some of them should start to blossom in the next couple of years. We can always hold out hope that our #1 picks from long ago (Rogers and Jones) will somehow have injury-free seasons and compete for spots in future rotations as well. Speaking of them, if they hadn't been injured, we'd have a pretty good rotation right now. Some blame can probably go to management for drafting players that are likely to get injured, but I don't think Melvin & Co. can be faulted too much for the bad luck they've had with top picks getting injured. If that bad luck stops, we sign Yo & Parra to long term deals, and some of Odorizzi, Jeffress, Scarpetta, Braddock, Peralta, etc. pan out, we could have a good, relatively inexpensive starting rotation for a long time.

 

On top of that, we have a minor league players at C (Salome, Lucroy), 3B (Gamel, Green), SS (Escobar, Brewer), 2B (Green, Lawrie), CF (Cain, Dykstra) and RF (Gillespie, Gindl) that should allow us to a lot of flexibility in building the roster in the future. Whether this is trading them or allowing them to play so we can trade other players or let them go for draft picks, Melvin seems to have a pretty good long-term plan. We're not in the perfect situation, but we're much better off than we've been in a long time. At least I have hopes that I'll be able to enjoy the possibility of watching the Brewers play winning baseball for the foreseeable future.

 

Now I just hope that Jack Z's replacement does as good a job replenishing the farm system through the draft as Jack did.

[Ennder]

Are you suggesting that an Ervin Santana type would have cost more more than what we paid for Sabathia?

 

Yes he would have last year.

 

Now if you mean a young guy who hasn't proven it at the major league level, then sure we could have gotten some guy like that and missed the playoffs last year most likely. What really killed us in the Sabathia deal is not getting the compensation pick. Brantley isn't any better than what we can get with a 1st round pick so it becomes LaPorta for Sabathia at that point. A blocked player with no defense for a shot at a playoff.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Teams with real budgets and real payroll constraints are simply not going to make the playoffs every year. For Melvin to have sensed the opportunity a year ago, and then pulled the trigger on a move to help make it happen was a very, very good thing.

 

It's not an opportunity that will present itself every year, and if it doesn't happen again for two or three years (or more), we'll all be grateful that management took the chance in 2008, even if Matt LaPorta is an All-Star by then.

[phxMILWfan]

I look at the entire body of work. When Melvin took over the Brewers had garbage at the major league level AND the minor leagues. (Look at who the top prospects were when Melvin took over. When Allen Levrault is your best pitching prospect you have garbage in the minor leagues.) Look at them now. Is he perfect? No. No GM is. But if you make more good moves than bad ones you will be doing very well. And that IMO he has.

 

I think this is the best way to evaluate a GM. Sure most of the big league talent was acquired via the draft. That shouldn't reflect poorly on DM. That was the teams philosophy for how to get better. DM specifically acquired 1 or 2 year players to hold down positions until the young talent was ready to come up so as to not rush them. If someone wants to point out all of the trades that in retrospect don't look great, take some time to look at the good trades. The Sexson trade was huge for us. A 1B who I don't believe is currently playing and was going to leave town at the end of his contract anyway (that also fits the mold most people are complaining about too many K's) for 6 players. Many of those players were valuable at the time. I'm not going to sit here and point out what each player did but DM also turned a couple of those stop gap players into more players that produced for us. If you want to cheer for a team that goes out and signs huge FA's there is one 90 miles to the south. Or check out the one that plays on the YES network. This is our team and while one of the most fun things to do as a fan is to play "what if?" and debate which player is better, we as Brewers fans should be better than this. It's 2 weeks into the season and everyone is freaking out. Let's see how this thing plays out, and if they don't make it to the playoffs, hopefully they will next year. Yankee fans that think October is their birth right always disgusted me. DM has helped make this team fun to watch again. Give the guy some credit.

[Ennder]

Just to add one more bit of wisdom to this thread. Jack Z does not draft anyone without input from Melvin and Melvin does not trade a prospect without input from Jack Z. You can't really separate these two from each other. If you think we made bad trades it is a knock on Jack Z as well and if you think we had great drafts it is a plus for Melvin as well.

 

Also one more note, lets imagine a scenario for 2008. Sheets elbow stays healthy for 1 more month, the offense doesn't falter in September and CC doesn't have to pitch on 3 days rest his last however many times out. We enter the playoffs with a functioning offense, CC, Sheets and Gallardo as the rotation. I can easily envision a world series appearance if that had happened. The Brewers really were very close to making a serious world series run last season, they had a team every bit as good as the Phillies outside of the closer. It was just a slumping offense, an injured ace and an overworked ace that did them in.

[MessiahRp]

Melvin has always said you have to overpay to get P in July.

With that knowledge, why then does Melvin choose to not bid heavier for a pitcher BEFORE the season instead of praying they'll be in the chase in July and giving up way too much for them then? For instance, does anyone think Jake Peavy will be cheaper in July than he would have been this past offseason?

 

And worse, if we don't go acquire front line pitching, will we even be in this thing in July? You're pretty much betting on and risking throwing the first half of the season away by not really trying to spend any money to upgrade the team. The chances that the team will still be in it in July with this pitching staff doesn't seem very realistic to me.

 

Rp

[kramnoj]

You're pretty much betting on and risking throwing the first half of the season away by not really trying to spend any money to upgrade the team.

 

Do you really think the Brewers didn't spend any money to upgrade the team? What options were better than what Melvin did?

[Invader3K]

The Brewers really were very close to making a serious world series run last season, they had a team every bit as good as the Phillies outside of the closer. It was just a slumping offense, an injured ace and an overworked ace that did them in.

You're absolutely right. I firmly believe the playoffs are more or less a crap shoot anyway. If just one of those games in Philly had gone our way, the Brewers could have potentially slid into the NLCS, somehow. Sometimes all the difference in the playoffs is a lining grounder taking a funny hop, or a guy hitting a fluke home run to give his team the lead. You never know if a five game series.

 

I just don't see how any Brewers fan can really not look back at the excitement of last season, and not feel good about it. I'm too young to remember 1982...I consider the 2008 Brewers to have been "my team", I guess. Maybe that's why I jumped all over DonMoney4Mgr before...I admit I may have overreacted a bit, but at the same time, I wouldn't trade the fun of last season for anything.

[joepepsi]

I'm not dissing Melvin, I just think his failure to target potential long-term players is kind of unfortunate, especially for a team with as many payroll constraints as the Brewers.

Once again, I don't think this is true. Bush, Capuano, and Overbay can all be considered long term players. I think it was hoped Moeller, then Estrada would solve the empty hole at catching. Vargas had a similar season to Davis and was two years younger. I'm sure the idea was Vargas would replace Davs' numbers in the rotation for a few years.

 

Also, it's important to realize this team's long term players are coming up through the organization. When Doug rode into town he specifically mentioned the Twins as a model for rebuilding the Brewers. This is what the Twins do, and it's what the Brewers have been doing.

 

So, as I wrote previously, I don't think it's Doug's goal to stock the farm system through trades. He's using trades mostly to fill holes and add depth to the 40 man roster, picking up complimentary players to go with the long term players who have been brought up through the organization.

[MessiahRp]

You're pretty much betting on and risking throwing the first half of the season away by not really trying to spend any money to upgrade the team.

 

Do you really think the Brewers didn't spend any money to upgrade the team? What options were better than what Melvin did?

Personally I think we should have made a play for Peavy. Or even spending some money on Derek Lowe. Don't tell me Braden Looper was the only option out there because that's insulting the intelligence anyone who remembers this offseason. Let's not do the whole revisionist history thing. Melvin wouldn't even consider Lowe and Lowe is better than anyone on the Brewers staff right now... possibly even Yo at this point (obviously Yo will get better and be better than Lowe in the future but I mean right now).

 

I know Suppan's contract is an albatross but Melvin needs to remember that was HIS albatross and worse he was the person who made the completely insane decision to backload the contract and ruin the team's chances for the last two years of the deal to acquire any further help.

 

Peavy is better than CC, IMO... if CC is considered a special case and Peavy was cheaper than what we offered CC, we should have gone after Peavy.

 

Rp

[PeaveyFury]

Personally I think we should have made a play for Peavy. Or even spending some money on Derek Lowe.

 

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the players have to want to come here as well. The JS ran an article suggesting that Melvin had kicked the tired on Lowe, but that he wasn't interested in coming here, IIRC. And Peavy's unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause to all but a couple of select teams is very well documented.

[Ennder]

I will say I am very glad we did not trade for Peavy, he is at least partially a product of that park and he is one of the riskier pitchers from an injury standpoint. If we were going to trade for an 'ace' I'd have chased after Halladay even though he isn't 'technically' on the block.

 

Lowe was probably too big of a risk as well given the length and money of the deal, though I'd have loved to have signed him. Looper is better than a lot of other options out there though, we could have say overspent to get Garland instead and just got the same pitcher only younger I guess.

[Invader3K]

Lowe would have been nice, but it didn't seem like he was ever mentioned in connection with Milwaukee. I can't believe Melvin didn't at least talk to his agent...I wonder if it was simply a case where a player had no interest in coming to Milwaukee. I guess I don't know how you can say "Melvin wouldn't even consider him," unless I'm forgetting something that was reported.

 

Peavy is still an option, presumably. Again, no one seems sure about his no-trade clause thing. I wish Melvin could have gotten more done in the off season as far as starting pitching...but I'm sure there is stuff that happened that we don't even know about.

 

I do sometimes wonder what happened to all the money budgeted for CC as a "special case". If "special case" means "bonafide superstar player who will help draw 3 million fans and give a strong chance of returning to the playoffs", you would think Peavy would be a special case as well (among other possibilities that were out there). I would think Brewers fans would have embraced Peavy as quickly as they did CC. Again, though, we don't know for sure if Peavy will even be willing to come to Milwaukee, so it's all speculation.

[kramnoj]

Don't tell me Braden Looper was the only option out there because that's insulting the intelligence anyone who remembers this offseason. Let's not do the whole revisionist history thing.

 

I'm not telling you Looper was the only option out there. You stated that the Brewers didn't spend any money to upgrade the team. I asked how you would have spent the money better. You're a bit quick with accusations of insulting anyone and implying that I'm being revisionist.

 

Melvin wouldn't even consider Lowe and Lowe is better than anyone on the Brewers staff right now

 

I think you have a hard time proving that Melvin didn't consider Lowe. Considering that Lowe signed with the Braves at 4/$60 I'm glad that the Brewers didn't get Lowe. If you are upset about Suppan's last two years, how do you think you would feel about paying a 39 year old Lowe $15M? Melvin has to balance the needs of the present with the needs of the future.

 

I know Suppan's contract is an albatross but Melvin needs to remember that was HIS albatross and worse he was the person who made the completely insane decision to backload the contract and ruin the team's chances for the last two years of the deal to acquire any further help.

 

Melvin's "completely insane decision" lowered Suppan's salary the past 2 years, resulting in the best 2 years the Brewers have had in some time, and leading to an amazing season resulting in record attendance and a playoff run.

[Brew Bird]

To me, DM's is average in negotiating trades and signing FAs. As would be expected, he both hits and misses sometimes. IMO what DM brings to the organization is his uncanny ability to sift through the scrap heap and pull out useful major-leaguers. Players like Turnbow, Branyan, and Kapler were all acquired on the cheap and enjoyed some productive MLB time in recent years. I'm hoping that Swindle and Coffey (I can't believe I'm developing a man-crush on this guy) will be some 2009 examples of DM's knack for the scrap.

I was torn last season on whether we should go after CC, and after seeing what the Cubs gave up for two years of Harden, I think we probably gave up too much for CC.

Is it possible that DM is still figuring out "how to play with the big boys" in terms of negotiating with other GMs and agents over high-caliber players and large contracts? Seemingly pressing for Gagne last year in free agency and probably over-paying in the Linebrink and CC trades makes me wonder if there's a learning curve here. I know he dealt with a higher payroll in Texas than what he originally worked with in Milwaukee (he was involved in the A-rod signing in Texas wasn't he?), so maybe there's not much to this... As a DM fan, I'm going to hope that he'll continue to get better at adding key pieces to the puzzle.

Jack Z does not draft anyone without input from Melvin and Melvin does not trade a prospect without input from Jack Z. You can't really separate these two from each other. If you think we made bad trades it is a knock on Jack Z as well and if you think we had great drafts it is a plus for Melvin as well.

I totally agree, and think that DM doesn't deserve enough credit for this.

Additionally, the Cameron acquistion and subsequent shuffling of the defense was a bit of a gamble that in hindsight looks like a really effective and shrewd decision. DM deserves some credit here.

[JJHardy7]

Now, our payroll is nearly maxed out and we lack pitching.

 

That is the payroll just for this year though. Cam and Looper are off the books next year and Suppan will be off the books year after next. I don't think the Brewers have any issues at all with payroll right now. The Brewers are a small market team and they have to balance a fine line. The one thing that worries me is that I don't think we have enough pitching prospects that will get to Milwaukee before guys like Hardy, Fielder, and Hart either have to be extended or will be gone.

 

Back to the thread...I really liked Nelson Cruz. I'm not upset we gave him up in the deal. I'm more upset that we took Mench in that deal. Nix was still somewhat of a prospect when the deal was made and he didn't pan out for us. I just wish it didn't look like Cruz was a 'throw-in'. I don't think he really was in the deal. Lee was a free agent.

 

One thing the Brewers can't afford to do is have too many Cordero situations. We need to trade players that we won't sign. I know the deal was close and draft picks are nice. We just have to balance trading guys hitting free agency and taking draft picks.

[endaround]

Good teams allow players to walk.

[JJHardy7]

Good teams allow players to walk.

 

Why do you say that? My point is that you can't let Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, etc. (if they all pan out before free agency) walk. Yes, the Brewers would get a lot of draft picks, but it could bring the team down quite a bit and we'd have to hope the draft goes very well. I'm not saying that good teams don't let players walk. I am saying Milwaukee isn't New York or a big market. They can't let them all walk and then go and spend a ton of cash on guys to replace everyone. It's fine to let some walk, but I'd prefer to at least get some proven prospects or something depending on the situation the team is in.

 

I love the draft and minors as much as anybody, but if we are going to try and compete (ie be .500 or better each year) a small market team has to be smart about their potential losses. We saw this past off-season how banking on draft picks can go.

[endaround]

Good teams are more worried about losing the wins this year than worrying about get more advanced prospects.

[Ennder]

Good teams do a combination of both is probably the correct answer. Really depends on the situation the team is in, the market size, the player and the players they have behind them in the minors.

[monty57]

Good teams allow players to walk.

 

Teams do have to allow some players to walk. Even big money teams like the Angels found that out this season, when they lost K-Rod and Tex. The Yankees even let all of their free agents walk without offering them arbitration. However, I'd say the statement should be "good teams lock up their cornerstone players and the rest are either traded or allowed to walk." One of the biggest decisions for the Brewers is in deciding who their "cornerstone" players are. They need to lock these players up, like they did with Braun, and either trade or accept draft picks for the rest. I expect that Yo is a no-brainer, and Parra should be locked up as well. The current trend is making this decision early, while the player is still early in pre-arby, making the decision risky, but less expensive. It would now be very expensive to lock up players like Prince, Rickie, JJ and Hart, so we'll probably see our next big deals going to guys like Gamel, Escobar, Salome/Lucroy and Jeffress. I'd expect these long term deals to do two things. First, there will be some blow ups when you lock someone up for 7-8 years and they don't pan out, and second, it will create more continuity in baseball, as teams will have their star players for more years.

 

I am saying Milwaukee isn't New York or a big market. They can't let them all walk and then go and spend a ton of cash on guys to replace everyone. It's fine to let some walk, but I'd prefer to at least get some proven prospects or something depending on the situation the team is in.

 

I'd add that letting everyone walk comes with a price tag, as it would cost a lot of signing bonus money to sign 4 or 5 first round draft picks in a year. I think a reason it took Melvin so long to sign Looper this year is that he didn't know how many first rounders he'd have to sign. When we ended up with a second rounder for CC and nothing for Sheets, Melvin knew he had money to play with. When you make a trade or sign a free agent, there is more certainty to what you're getting for your money. Millions of dollars worth of signing bonuses each year go for naught, as the players never make it to the bigs.

[JJHardy7]

Good teams are more worried about losing the wins this year than worrying about get more advanced prospects.

 

Well the Brewers aren't to this point yet. It's not even advanced prospects. Let's say in the next few years Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Hart all walk. I don't want to debate contract or anything like that. The Brewers would be left with draft picks. The Brewers (being a small market team) can't just go and spend a ton of money to replace all these players. Now maybe we have some prospects that can replace some of them to a degree, but if you keep doing that you will have down years. If you trade these guys for more proven players, you can get ahead of the game a little bit if you know that player will leave.

 

A VERY GOOD example of this is the situation with CC. The Indians chose to trade him instead of getting the picks. I'm not comparing the trade itself at all, but I would have to imagine if LaPorta keeps raking they win the debate between trading him or keeping him and getting picks. If Brantley becomes an everyday guy, they easily did the right thing. You'd be very hard pressed to get two better picks out of a player walking than what they did with the trade. And that is my point. It's fine if the Brewers let players walk. The Brewers just can't let every guy coming up walk.

[kramnoj]

The Brewers (being a small market team) can't just go and spend a ton of money to replace all these players. Now maybe we have some prospects that can replace some of them to a degree, but if you keep doing that you will have down years.

 

If you let explensive players leave, and you replace some of them with prospects, why can't you spend money to replace the others? You will have gained some of the spending power by letting veterans leave, and you will gain more spending power by having pre-arb players on the roster.

 

As far as spending power is concerned, I don't think identifying the Brewers as small market helps in any way. They are closer to a mid-market team when it comes to payroll, and they will continue to be as long as they keep a competitive team on the field and bring fans to the park. Weren't they top 10 in attendance last year?

 

A VERY GOOD example of this is the situation with CC.

 

I'm not following your thinking. You don't want to replace vets with young players because by your assertion that leads to down years. But a team will generally only trade away veterans that provide value in down years.

[logan82]

Is it possible that DM is still figuring out "how to play with the big boys" in terms of negotiating with other GMs and agents over high-caliber players and large contracts?

 

We have no chance with the biggest free agents. NONE. The only way they would sign with us if for a below market contract. We simply can't play with the big boys toe to toe. We have to be smarter with the mid-tier free agents and prospects. We don't have the money to buy our way out of mistakes. Until something drastically changes in the financial landscape of baseball this is going to be the case.

 

Don't buy a jersey with a player name unless you can afford a new jersey every 5-6 years. We are going to turn over our roster. That is what we have to do to compete.