Is it time to question Bill Castro?

[Jofis11ep]

I know coaches take too many undeserving hits when their players aren't performing. I am almost always against this blame on coaches, but right now I have to question the coaching methods of Bill Castro right now. Yes I know he doesn't have the likes of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets...but the lack of command on almost all of the pitchers is amazing me right now. There are some of the same pitchers from last year (Seth McClung, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, etc.) who never threw this many balls, let alone with the bases loaded. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt right now because the season is early, but this is a trend I would really like to see change as the season progresses.

[markedman5]

Mcclung has always struggled with his control and Maddox couldn't keep Suppan from imploding last year.

 

I blame Melvin for saddling Castro with this pitching staff.

[naivin]

Many things wrong with this team right now...well beyond Castro. I was thinking tonight, the suckfest this season has been thus far really shouldn't be all that unexpected...New Manager, new coaching staff, new rotation, new bench, questionable bullpen with no closer...could take some time, if it comes around at all.

 

Speaking of, the sooner the Brewers want to stop pretending Villanueva is a closer the better.

[GormanHarvey]

Just because Bill Castro became the pitching coach it didn't make the pitchers suddenly forget how to throw strikes. He had been the bullpen coach for many years and the relievers never seemed to have problems like this

[Jofis11ep]

Just because Bill Castro became the pitching coach it didn't make the pitchers suddenly forget how to throw strikes. He had been the bullpen coach for many years and the relievers never seemed to have problems like this

I obviously know that it didn't make them forget to throw strikes. I'm just wondering if it's his preparation or what? I just don't understand all of the walks thus far. I knew the pitching would be the Brewers weakness but I didn't see them going like this....walking so many batters.

 

I am in no way placing blame on Bill Castro, I wouldn't want to inherit the pitching staff of a team that just made the playoffs and then loses their top 2 pitchers, I just don't understand these location woes and am searching for an answer...

[The Ignitor]

I'm not ready to blame this on Castro, but in the back of mind I've always wondered how a guy can be a bullpen coach for as long as he has, through numerous managers, without getting the full time pitching coach job somewhere in the bigs before (I know he was an interim back in the day). It's one of those things that makes you scratch your head and wonder if there something we don't know about him that has held him back all these years. I pray he succeeds. And it's too soon to say he won't.

[GormanHarvey]

I really don't think this is that bad of a staff to "inherit". They are definitely off to a poor start. I think if anyone knew why they couldn't throw strikes right now they would have figured it out. Coffey, DiFelice, and Bush don't seem to be having any problems.

[JoeHova]

They will be fine (except for Suppan, maybe). This is just a bad stretch that has happened to take place at the beginning of the season so the significance of it is magnified. It's unfortunate that the team is off to a poor start, but I think it's too soon to worry much or draw any conclusions (except about Suppan and Kendall).

[pitchleague]

they showed a stat during pre-game, I believe, that showed how scoring and walks are WAY up throughout the majors thus far. It's one week of twenty-six. Things will balance out.

 

The hitters are always way ahead of the pitchers every April, and this year they had an extra week of hitting to prepare.

I don't think Castro has anything to do with it. Or else, they might as well be going after every pitching coach in the league.

[Nottso]

they showed a stat during pre-game, I believe, that showed how scoring and walks are WAY up throughout the majors thus far. It's one week of twenty-six. Things will balance out.

 

The hitters are always way ahead of the pitchers every April, and this year they had an extra week of hitting to prepare.

I don't think Castro has anything to do with it. Or else, they might as well be going after every pitching coach in the league.

I saw that as well, and I think there may be some merit to it. During the Cubs series, with all the talk of how Fukudome pretty much plays year-round, and is always such a "fast starter," I got to thinking; perhaps it isn't that Fukudome is any better in the beginning of the season, perhaps it's that he starts the year as good as he's going to get, while the rest of the league takes a while to get up to speed.

[davego]

Some coaches believe in a 'team approach' to pitching, hitting or what have you. Some really individualize concepts for their specific athletes. I wonder what philosophy Billy takes?

[Ennder]

The hitters are always way ahead of the pitchers every April, and this year they had an extra week of hitting to prepare.

I don't think Castro has anything to do with it. Or else, they might as well be going after every pitching coach in the league.

 

Pitching is generally ahead of hitting in April, it is almost always the lowest ERA month of the season. BB are always high in April and HR are generally low.

[MJLiverock]

I just looked up the BB/9 totals on the MLB site and the Brewers are dead last in the NL at 5.4 BB/9, the Braves are second to last at 5.0. Six teams are between 4 and 5 and 6 are between 3 and 4 while 2 are below 3 BB/9. I didn't take the time to calculate a true league average but it look like the Brewers are averaging about 2 BB/9 more than the rest of the league. The K rate is also among the lowest for the Brewers.

 

Adding in the American league makes it even worse. The highest rate there was 4.6 BB/9 with most teams right around the 3 to 4 range.

 

I dont' think I can just chalk it up to early season kinks and that everyone is struggling. It is early in the season but the Brewers are noticably worse than the league. The walks have really hurt the team and it isn't just bad luck timing, the Brewers pitchers seem to have difficulty throwing strikes when it is really needed, like with the bases loaded, when there already are guys on base, etc. Not just occasional walks with no one on and 2 outs but at times when concentration should be at its highest and they are walking guys on 4 o5 pitches and missing badly.

 

I won't blame it all on Castro, he can't make them throw it over the plate but my fears that this staff is really not very good are not being allayed by the early results. Attempts to make it seem that every team is struggling like the Brewers just don't hold up in my eyes or in the stats.

[Ennder]

The sample sizes are so small that none of that really means much though. The Brewer pitchers are all walking more guys than they historically have, it won't stay like that all season. Every single team in baseball is going to go through a 10 game stretch where they pitching struggles.

[joepepsi]

Julio and McClung have pretty high career walk rates. Add in that Sheets, who basically never walked anybody, is gone, and you have to figure the staff's walks will go up this year. Last year they allowed 5th lowest walks in the league. The Cubs allowed 30 more and were 7th. Replace Sheets' (and CC's) innings with an average pitcher and you can figure the staff will allow at least 30 more walks this year.

 

Don't really know what my point is......other than, we can expect the walk rate to be higher this year without it being Castro's fault. That said, some of these guys had better stop walking so many batters!

[Invader3K]

I gotta ask again...

 

Do you folks think Melvin knew the pitching staff would be this shaky, or was he just in denial about it? Our number 1 pitcher right now is 23 years old, with barely more than 20 career MLB starts. Had to expect things to be tough, at least at first.

[Ennder]

I think a lot of pitchers have gotten off to bad starts and people are making too much out of it. The Giants 'stud' rotation has been miserable as well. The yankees are allowing 5.5 R/G. This early in the season the stats are more or less random and meaningless.

 

Melvin is a smart guy, I'm sure he already knows all of this.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The obvious difference between this year and last year's starting staff is there aren't any shutdown veteran starters in the rotation that can dominate hitters. I think expecting Gallardo and Parra to be consistenly lights out is asking too much of young pitchers. The staff is full of guys who would make good #4 and #5 starters on contending teams - guys like Gallardo and Parra still project to be #1,#2 type starters, but there's just not enough experience there to expect them to carry the staff the way Sabathia and Sheets did for most of 2008.

 

not having veteran studs in the rotation exposes the bullpen more, and the last thing this pen needs is to be overworked. Not having big strikeout pitchers even amplifies the walks problem - BABIP will eventually cause those walks to score when pitchers can't get guys to swing and miss.

 

For the Brewers to come close to 90 wins, they need to score tons of runs offensively, and the pitching needs to throw strikes and limit the damage by not walking guys into big innings. So far this formula hasn't been close to happening.

[Invader3K]

Great post, FTC. I agree 100%.

 

I don't know if Melvin really expected Gallardo/Parra to be a legit 1/2 combo. There's no real track record to base that on. Just makes you think they really must be looking at trading for someone come mid-season. I just hope they can keep their heads above water for the next couple months to get to that point.

[Ennder]

Last year the White Sox rode Danks and Floyd to a playoff berth and they had less of a track record than Gallardo/Parra do. Lincecum had less of a track record going into last season than Gallardo does and he won the Cy Young. Lester had less of a track record than Parra or Gallardo last year and was in the running for a CY. Every single year young pitchers step up and have great seasons with nothing more than a minor league track record and maybe a partial season in the majors.

 

I think you guys are making a mountain out of a mole hill. I don't think we have a 90 win team but it isn't going to be Gallardo and Parra that keeps us out of the playoffs and they aren't going to struggle just because we don't have a veteran ace. That is the kind of thing they say on ESPN but is proven wrong every year on the field.

[Invader3K]

Well, I think you could also argue that the AL Central last year was worse than the NL Central is this year. The Tigers were probably the odds on favorites to win that division going in and completely tanked it early. I don't and can't see the Cubs doing that this year (though stranger things have happened). We could still contend for the Wild Card, but with teams like the Marlins playing well early, it will be extremely tough if our pitching staff does not turn it around quick.

[Ennder]

I didn't think we'd make the playoffs going into the season. I think 3 teams in the NL East are better than us and the Marlins could be though I think their rotation falls apart in the 2nd half. The Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Reds are all in the same general range as us too. We'll either need a couple break outs offensively or a mid season trade to put us over the top. I think we are around 84-86 wins and not just because of the rotation which is average.

[brewman04]

I don"t think you can Blame Castro at all for the Pitchers lack of Control and we all knew their would be promblems with this staff,and Melvin knows that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Last year the White Sox won a division that imploded (Cleveland's injuries and Sabathia trade, Detroit's lack of pitching, Twins loss of Santana, Hunter, and other key injuries, KC's constant rebuilding project) - and they had to win a one game playoff just to earn the playoff berth after basically spitting up their lead down the stretch. Plus, the sox built their division lead with a dominating bullpen (before injuries and regression burned it up). Danks and Floyd ended up being their two best starters for 2008, but at the start of 2008 I'm pretty sure they were assumed to be #4 and 5 in the rotation (#3 and 4 at best). I'd also take a healthy Buerhle, Contreras, and Vazquez (3.79, 4.54, and 4.67 2008 ERA's in the AL respectively) over Bush, Looper, and Suppan every single time. The trio from the White Sox I listed K'd over 100 more hitters last season than the Brewers' trio over 14 fewer IP (would have had many more K's and IP had Contreras not gotten injured).

 

Cherry picking one example to show how it's proven wrong on the field every year doesn't work, especially the example you gave.

 

The Brewers could use a veteran ace, young ace, any ace (just like 90% of the other teams could)...1-5 in the rotation right now, the Brewers simply aren't as talented as a majority of the teams in basball. I'll agree that the starter they'd need to acquire doesn't have to be "veteran" - they just need one that's better than anything they have right now if they want to approach 85-90 wins. Since no team will give up a young ace pitcher, I singled out going after a quality "veteran" starter.

[Ennder]

the Brewers simply aren't as talented as a majority of the teams in basball. I'll agree that the starter they'd need to acquire doesn't have to be "veteran" - they just need one that's better than anything they have right now if they want to approach 85-90 wins. Since no team will give up a young ace pitcher, I singled out going after a quality "veteran" starter.

 

I completely 100% disagree with this statement though and I'm not cherry picking anything. The Brewers need to find 4-5 more wins somewhere to make the playoffs, it could be breakouts of players currently on the roster, it could be somehow trading Kendall for Joe Mauer!, it could be breakouts in the bullpen turning it into a strength, it could be trading for a real 3B etc. Getting another starter is ONE way we could improve but it isn't like this rotation is so miserable that there is no way it can lead us to a playoff like say Baltimore or Washington or Texas has.

 

Gallardo has 146 IP of 3.46 ERA now with better peripherals than the ERA and 396 IP of a 2.59 ERA in the minors while young at every stop. That is a great track record. Parra has 202 IP of 4.44 ERA with better peripherals than the ERA suggests as well as 545 IP of 3.07 ERA in the minors. Just because these guys aren't 10 year vets doesn't mean they don't have track records of success.

 

Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Looper are as good as most teams 1-4 including some teams that will make the playoffs this year. They aren't a knockout rotation but they aren't a big weakness that means we'll have to score 8 runs a night to win games either.

 

I could easily see our rotation being as good as the rotation that won the Phillies a world series last year as an example.