The Mat Gamel watch

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I'm expecting Gamel will be a nice player when he comes up (and has appropriate time to adjust), but is it realistic to even expect him to be an All-Star caliber player. I'm honestly asking because I can't be sure. I figured he'd be sort of a Braun-lite.

[PlayerHader]

I was pretty much just looking into a small sample regarding the statement that HOF players generally are in the majors at 19-21 years of age. I certainly wasn't and I don't think the other poster was implying that Gamel is a HOF player.

[Never Outhustled]

That is a horrible way of looking at it, because it doesn't take into consideration that Gamel got to a lot more balls than Braun did. Gamel had a fielding percentage of .915 last season while fielding 2.878 balls per game. Braun had a fielding percentage of .895 while fielding 2.215 balls per game.

Brauns chances per game are low because he was taken out for defense. If you play fewer innings per game, you will have fewer chances. I did say Gamel is a better defender than Braun. This question is more about how soon you think Gamel will be tollerable defensively than how he compares to Braun, as being better defensively than Braun doesn't mean anything.

 

 

Also, you can't use chances per game as a useful stat, because it doesn't take into account things like a pitching staffs K rate or ground ball tendencies.

[strawbossisevil]

I'm aware that it doesn't use the K rate or ground ball tendencies. However I don't think it can be dismissed either when a player is getting to an awful lot more balls that others. The fact that Gamel got to more balls then all of the players I looked at would definitely seem to suggest that he has very good range. Either that or the pitchers in Huntsville have an amazing ability at creating ground balls to the left side.

 

Plus while there are differences in K rate or ground ball tendencies, I think we could fairly say that Huntsville and Nashville were pretty average in both categories last season. I think Milwaukee was fairly average as well. For that reason, I don't see that big of a difference between Hall and Gamel on the defensive end of things. I think Hall will make a few less errors, while Gamel will make a few plays that Hall doesn't.

 

The fact remains that Gamel's fielding percentage was far better than Brauns. So comparing the two is not fair.

[chrisisoutrunning]

Rickey Henderson 21

Cal Ripken Jr. 21

Bruce Sutter 23

Tony Gwynn 23

Wade Boggs 24

Ryne Sandberg 22

Paul Molitor 21

Dennis Eckersley 20

Eddie Muray 21

Gary Carter 21

Ozzie Smith 23

Kirby Puckett 24

Dave Winfield 22

Ken Griffey Jr. 19

Greg Maddux 21

Tom Glavine 22

John Smoltz 22

Craig Biggio 23

 

I figured I'd expand on fortheloveofweeks's list, going back to recent HOF inductees and a few others that are locks, just to show that there hasn't been a trend to rush or slow players lately. Basically, 21-23 looks like the norm, with a couple in at 19-20, and a couple at 24. On a related, but side note, Babe Ruth started 32 games at age 20, but didn't have more than 150 PA's until 23).

[battlekow]

Babe Ruth started 32 games at age 20, but didn't have more than 150 PA's until 23).

This just made me laugh. I mean...you know why Ruth didn't bat a whole lot between ages 20 and 22, right?

[Never Outhustled]

Jim Callis calls this his favorite trivia question: Which HOF was quickest to 100 wins?

[uwisfan]

Brauns chances per game are low because he was taken out for defense.

uhh, no. Let's say Braun was taken out every fifth game for 2 innings. That would be 1 less inning per 22.5 or about 4%. If Braun got to 4% more balls, he would go from 2.215 to about 2.295.. nowhere near Gamel's 2.878

[chrisisoutrunning]

This just made me laugh. I mean...you know why Ruth didn't bat a whole lot between ages 20 and 22, right?

Yes, I realize Babe Ruth started off as a pitcher, I'm not an idiot when it comes to baseball history. It basically shows how incredible his former home run record and batting statistics are. If he hadn't been a pitcher the first few seasons he was in the majors he probably would have had around the number of home runs Aaron had, and history could be completely different. In the end Ruth didn't get into the HOF based on those years of pitching in Boston, he got in with what he did with his bat, which he didn't do a ton of before his age 23 season. So if you want to laugh go ahead, there's no reason to.

[razzzorsharp]

So what is the magic day that we can bring him up without losing a year od service time?

[battlekow]

So what is the magic day that we can bring him up without losing a year od service time?

Though the average season has 183 days in it, a player can only accumulate 172 days of service time in a year; 172 days constitutes a "year" of service, and a player is eligible for free agency after six years, so we'd have to keep Gamel down for 12 days, plus the 28 he already accrued last September, for a total of 40 days, so right around May 15th.

[strawbossisevil]

I'm pretty sure his September call up only counts as one day. The biggest concern now for the Brewers is waiting long enough so that he won't be a Super 2.

[battlekow]

His September callup definitely does not count as one day. He has 28 days of service time.

[paul253]

I just can't see him coming up as a third basemen. He had two more errors last night, making it 7 in 15 games. You can't have an infielder making an error every other game. Its too bad, because thats the one of maybe only 2 spots (catcher) that we could really use an upgrade at offensively.

[strawbossisevil]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the service time only counts in that manner if he is added to the 25 man roster. If he is just on the 40 man roster, he only accumulates one day service time for a September call up when the roster expands. I'm pretty sure Gamel was NOT added to the 25 man roster last year.

 

Edit: nm, it seems that after further review, you were right. I was almost sure that there was some rule about players only acquiring one day if they were just on the 40 man roster.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I just can't see him coming up as a third basemen. He had two more errors last night, making it 7 in 15 games. You can't have an infielder making an error every other game. Its too bad, because thats the one of maybe only 2 spots (catcher) that we could really use an upgrade at offensively.

Honestly, the way Billy has been playing defense lately, I don't want to have a poor 3B in the field. It's amazing the way he's playing defensively, and it's helping our pitchers out greatly. The best scenario is moving Gamel to 1st and trading Prince. Gamel's just committing too many errors my liking.

[Invader3K]

Well, with the way Bill Hall is playing, no reason to rush Gamel at this point. I think most are in agreement the more time he spends in AAA right now, the better.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

I love the way Bill Hall is playing defensively this year. But he's still a hack at the plate. Small sample size, yes, but his numbers mirror last years and that's not good.

It sure would be nice to have another solid LHB in this lineup. Unfortunately, the way Gamel's playing defense, he won't be called up anytime soon.

[TooLiveBrew]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the service time only counts in that manner if he is added to the 25 man roster. If he is just on the 40 man roster, he only accumulates one day service time for a September call up when the roster expands. I'm pretty sure Gamel was NOT added to the 25 man roster last year.

 

As best I can figure, the myth of September call-ups not accruing service time only comes from one thing -- time spent on the expanded, 40-man rosters does not count against a player's Rookie of the Year eligibility.

 

Otherwise, a day in the bigs counts as a day in the bigs in terms of service time... September or any other month.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'd sell high on Hall. Trade him to a team in need for a 3B (Yankees?), and bring up Gamel and his red hot bat. It's a risky move, but it could really pay off like bringing up Braun did 2 years ago.

[Invader3K]

Why? Bill Hall is hitting decently enough and playing stellar defense. What's the point in rushing Gamel right now? I still don't get it...it's like everyone is in love with all of our prospects and want them all up at the earliest possible juncture.

[strawbossisevil]

I think the point would be to maximize on what you get for Hall. If trading Hall and bringing up Gamel nets you Hughes, I think it would be foolish to not do so, since we are in desperate need of pitching, now and going forward into the future. Adding Hughes to the rotation would be a nice step up, and would let us move Suppan to the bullpen. The key is to sell on Hall while he is playing well, and not when he is playing like he has the last couple of years.

 

And on top of all of that, we would get the financial flexibility to add another (moderately expensive) player, either during the trade deadline, or during the upcoming offseason (since Hall´s salary will be off the books).

[endaround]

Hall is not getting you Hughes. Hall might get you salary relief.

 

Gamel might find himself in right field after the result of Cain's MRI.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...despite Hall's improved play this season, it's hard to say what the market really is for him at this point, given his contract.

[igor67]

3 weeks of Hall killing lefties and playing above average D at the hot corner isn't going to light up the phones just yet. Your best rational hope at this point is that Hall can do enough to be interesting to the right team, while giving the Brewers a few months to see if they think Gamel will be OK defensively. At this point the team's hand is not being forced one way or the other by either Hall or Gamel and that's just fine. In both the short term and with an eye towards building Hall's value, sitting him about once a week against righties is a good play. You need to keep your bench guys fresh with playing time, and once a week is not so frequent that you pigeonhole Hall into a platoon player in everyone's eyes, but it does let you give a helping hand to his season long numbers. So maybe in the offseason or even at the deadline he has value to a team looking for a third basemen or SS.

 

Alternatively while I lean more towards the side of appreciating that Gamel's superior range makes him a defender closer to average than to Braun. I also recognize that he has to be capable of error totals in the low 20's for a season before enough fans will buy his defense at 3rd. And while we can have a nice little debate about running the team without input from the fans, the reputation is out there and will be constantly repeated. It's not definitive, but sooner or later if all everyone is talking about is the glove it's going to have a negative impact on Gamel and/or force the team to move him regardless of a more sophisticated defensive metric. In the continued high error total scenario Hall might be our best option for next year as well until maybe Green can be ready or something else develops.