The Mat Gamel watch

[JJHardy7]

I think some would just like to cross off 3b as a need for a long, long time. Gamel can hit no doubt. I know there will be things in baseball that point to anything you want. Player X did XYZ at this and so did Player Y so it should work. That's fine and all, but the Brewers don't have room for Gamel right now. His bat is great, but are you going to bench Braun, Hart, or Fielder? Are you going to move Gamel at OF right now? I think the reward of Gamel playing 3B far outweighs moving him to 1B or the OF. It's easier to find hitters at those positions than it is at 3B IMO.

 

The way I see it is that this will be Gamel's 'make or break' year at 3B. I think he could play 3B now in the majors if needed. Mat barely has any time at AAA, but is playing well. To me, it's very similar to Braun (I think Gamel is a better potential 3B than Braun), but there isn't a position open right now. If we're sitting here a month from now and Hall is playing poor that might be a different story. It's also not like Gamel is 26 and in AAA. He's young and most likely hasn't reached his prime yet. If Gamel doesn't show signs he's at 3B for long-term, I think it's pretty clear that Hart or Prince will be moved sooner rather than later.

[TheCrew07]

That wasn't really the point of my post JJ, people are continually posting that Gamel won't hit enough to play 1B, which I just can't get behind. I don't think anyone in this thread wouldn't agree that the best case for the Brewers would be Gamel playing 3B, but there is a statistical argument to be made that he'd be more valuable as player *this year* at a different position. I'm on record repeatedly as hoping he'll become at least average at 3B, but it's very difficult to hold a bat of Mat's quality back for very long.

 

It's fine for people to want Gamel to spend an entire season in AAA working on his D. I just don't think the issue is that black and white and I've previously posted my reasons as why. A single roving infield instructor isn't going to get the results with our players, it's been proven time after time. There just aren't enough coaches and maybe not enough time to work through these defensive issues with the players. It shouldn't start at AA like it did with Mat, it should start at R or R+, where ever the kids start playing and carry through to MLB. Defensive development hasn't been enough of an organizational priority to this point, and I don't mean to impoy anything against the roving instructors who do a heck of job with the cards stacked against them, it's much deeper issue than that. The kids need constant perfect repetition change a bad habit into a positive one.

 

A recent study that was presented at the football clinic in Madison the last week in March suggested it takes 15,000 repetitions to relearn a movement (I really wish I would have written down which College completed the study so I could reference it but I was taking bullet point notes for my personal use). That number seems/seemed awful high to me, but even if it's half that number are the kids getting 7,500 perfect repetitions in by the time they get to AAA? Or are they just doing what they do and reinforcing the negative?

 

I think responsibility falls both ways here... Mat is ultimately responsible for his play on the field, but has the organization really done all it could for players like Gamel, Fielder, Weeks, and Braun? Part of me has a real hard time holding Gamel down in AAA because of his defense when it appears he never really got the support he needed until recently.

[cwolf2012]

The positional adjustment for 3B for runs above replacement is around 3. The positional adjustment for 1B is about -12.

 

I think that if we're going to move Gamel to 1B, we need to show that his defense would be 15 runs better at 1B than at 3B in a full season. I find it extremely difficult to believe that he would be THAT much better at 1B than 3B.

[twobrewers]

In addition, I don't think he's a difference maker because he doesn't have the power of Braun or Fielder.

If Gamel doesn't have the potential to be a "difference maker" - then I've never seen someone who did.

[colbyjack]

All sorts of people talk to scouts including Goldstein and Law, but what does that mean? Did the scouts that Law talks to make him believe that Pedroia isn't special or that McLouth is a 4th outfielder? Is it a couple scouts, some on every team or what?

 

What it means is that everyone that takes the time to report on Mat Gamel offers a very similar scouting report. Maybe these guys are just reading each other's work, or maybe there is one scout out there that just likes talking to as many journalists as he can, but the point remains that there are a lot of questions about Gamel's defense, with a lot of people questioning that he'll be able to stay there.

[TheCrew07]

I was thinking about this thread as I was cleaning out my car this morning. Is the lack of respect for Gamel's hitting prowess Projection/MLE related? Especially when dealing with minor league players it takes projection systems some time to catch up, at least in my opinion they always seem to be a year or 2 behind. Since Mat had his 30+ game hitting streak he's only gotten better at the plate, he's trending as well as we could possibly hope for, but since I've switched up from visiting BP daily to making BA a daily stop, I don't follow projections all that closely anymore and I wonder what they have to say about Gamel? Escobar's projections and MLEs have been plastered all over the board, but I haven't seen anything on Gamel or Salome.

[strawbossisevil]

Ok, I should explain myself a little bit.

 

I see Gamel as a guy who will hit about 25 HR a year, with an OPS in the mid to upper .800s. At first base, finding that type of production is really not all that hard in the FA market. Oakland for example, picked up Giambi rather cheaply this offseason, and I´d expect that he´d put up similar numbers. I can understand why some would point out that Fielder´s numbers last year weren´t much better than that, and if you honestly believe that what Fielder did last year is what we can expect going forward than I can see your point in putting Gamel at 1b. However, I think Fielder profiles as a guy who can put up an OPS in the mid to upper .900s. I also think it would be a huge waste to stick at 1B a player who has the athleticism to play somewhere higher on the defensive scale. It would be a waste of his offensive talent to do so, since so much of his offensive value would be offset by his playing first.

 

However, at 3b, a guy who can hit 25 HR with an OPS in the mid to upper .800s is gold. And if you look at how our team has been put together, we have had trouble filling 3b since Cirillo left (the first time).

 

Plus, on top of that, exchanging Gamel for Fielder still means that we have only one lefty in the lineup, which is far from ideal.

 

I also think comparing Gamel to Braun in terms of defense at 3b is not being fair to Gamel. Braun had terrible range and committed tons of errors (when looking at the stats, some point out that he may have been one of the worst 3b of all time). Gamel on the other hand seems to have plus range, which means he gets to a lot more balls than Braun did. He also was less error prone last year than Braun was in his year at Milwaukee. So even in regards to errors, Gamel is better (despite his slow start defensively this season).

 

Finally, unless we all think Hall is the answer at 3b, without Gamel playing there, it will likely continue to be a hole on our team. I am not convinced that Green is going to be all that great of a player. If I had to guess, I think Green will end up with an OPS in the upper .700s which is far from ideal at an offensive position like 3b. And I think Lawrie is slotted for 2b once Weeks leaves.

[Never Outhustled]

He also was less error prone last year than Braun was in his year at Milwaukee.

Thats incorrect. Gamel averaged an error every 4.1 games last year, Braun averaged an error every 4.3 games for Milwaukee in 2007. I do agree that Gamel is better defensively than Braun though.

 

I am not convinced that Green is going to be all that great of a player. If I had to guess, I think Green will end up with an OPS in the upper .700s which is far from ideal at an offensive position like 3b.

Chone Figgins OPS'd just 685 last year, yet had the more Value Wins than Edwin Encarnacion, who had an 807 OPS, and the major reason for this is because Figgins, while not a top defender, was 18 runs better defensively than Encarnacion.

 

 

I see Gamel as a guy who will hit about 25 HR a year, with an OPS in the mid to upper .800s. At first base, finding that type of production is really not all that hard in the FA market. Oakland for example, picked up Giambi rather cheaply this offseason, and I´d expect that he´d put up similar numbers.

Yet Giambi was only worth 2.3 wins last year because he played some 1B, and his defense negated some of his offense.

Joey Votto, a player I compare Gamel to, was worth 3.8 wins last year, even though his OPS was the same as Giambi's. Votto was 16 runs better defensively though. Many poor defensive 3Bs become high quality defensive 1Bs, like Pujols and Texeira.

 

 

I can understand why some would point out that Fielder´s numbers last year weren´t much better than that, and if you honestly believe that what Fielder did last year is what we can expect going forward than I can see your point in putting Gamel at 1b

Fielder is another great example of a guy who's offense is negated by defense. Fielder was worth just 2.6 Value Wins last year as opposed to Votto's 3.8, despite a similar OPS.

 

Plus, on top of that, exchanging Gamel for Fielder still means that we have only one lefty in the lineup, which is far from ideal.

This one I agree with, which is why I want to originally shift Gamel to the OF. He could easily slide to 1B later in his career.

 

 

I also think it would be a huge waste to stick at 1B a player who has the athleticism to play somewhere higher on the defensive scale. It would be a waste of his offensive talent to do so, since so much of his offensive value would be offset by his playing first.

Win Values takes into account the difference in offense expected at each position, and Gamel projects to about the same Value Wins at either position.

 

The question is, do you want to be a good defensive team, or have stronger offense?

With the high cost and difficulty to acquire pitching in today's game, I'd like to offset the problem by fielding a strong defensive team that converts outs efficiently and keep the pitch count lower for our best pitchers.

 

 

Edit: Strawbossisevel, I mean no disrespect in systematically challenging your post. I thought you explained your view perfectly. I was just struggling to explain my stance, and yours lead me right into what I wanted to say.

[JJHardy7]

Thats incorrect. Gamel averaged an error every 4.1 games last year, Braun averaged an error every 4.3 games for Milwaukee in 2007. I do agree that Gamel is better defensively than Braun though.

 

- Minor league scoring vs. MLB scoring

 

- That doesn't take opportunities into account. Gamel had the better fielding percentage than Braun at the same age. I think that might be a better comparison than comparing MLB to AA levels.

 

I don't want to get in the Gamel thing at all because I think I've posted my opinion. I will ask a question though. At what point is it right to call a guy up? Mat is only 23 and has barely played in AAA. I really like Gamel and I think he's going to be a good pro. I know Weeks and Braun were rushed up, but a guy like Prince played a full year (or close to it) of AAA (IIRC). I know there could be circumstances in which Mat could be called up. I'm not questioning his bat at all. I think he has the potential to have a plus bat at 1B. I just wonder if 'rushing' these guys up is what is right for the Brewers right now. I know it happens in waves with prospects and if Mat was where he was at two years ago or a year or two from now he'd be in Milwaukee. What is the best way to run the organization as it stands now?

[Never Outhustled]

-

Minor league scoring vs. MLB scoring

 

You've thrown this out there a few times, and still havent explained it. While I realize minor league scorers might make more mistakes, are you saying they consistently give errors on plays that should be credited with hits? And if thats the case wouldn't Braun's Fielding % have gotten better in the Majors, instead of getting worse?

 

I'm guessing they make more mistakes, but theres just as many hits that they give errors on as there is errors that they give hits on.

 

 

 

I will ask a question though. At what point is it right to call a guy up? Mat is only 23 and has barely played in AAA

Mat will be 24 later this year, thats a little bit older than most top prospects. Many top prospects never see AAA, though I agree that in many cases thats a big mistake.

 

I believe an organization should want a player with there team in his best years. before steriods, players started to decline at 29, so I think by 23-24 is an age you really want to start pushing a guy up. The most important thing isn't age, but a players ability to carry high Value Wins.

 

 

I know Weeks and Braun were rushed up, but a guy like Prince played a full year (or close to it) of AAA (IIRC).

Braun was arguably the best rookie hitter of all time. The only mistake was the team didn't get him playing a position he could play by the time his bat was ready. Gamel is proving to be a similar hitter at the same age as Braun was when he debuted in the Majors.

Weeks was maybe rushed with the bat because he didn't really hit that well in AA, then was promoted after dominating AAA for 7 weeks. Defensively, he's finally become an average 2B, but that endevor wasn't worth the wait.

 

Fielder had just 175 more ABs in AAA than Weeks did.

 

I agree that Gamel could eventually become average defensively, much like Russel Branyan did, but much like the Weeks case, the wait would cost the team dearly.

 

[TheCrew07]

Wouldn't that depend on how far he gets with each incremental gain? I know I bag on the defensive development within the organization but I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect Gamel's path to be similar to Weeks. Mat made good progress last year, if he can reign himself in and find some consistency he might yet turn the corner this season or next off season if he works hard enough. He started to make noticable progress in AA, the other guys we've discussed didn't make much progress at all, at least none that we could point to.

 

I agree though it's tough when you know you have 3.5+ win player at any other corner spot but right now he's probably 2ish after the negative defensive adjustment at 3B.

 

Not to overstate it, but I do feel that Mat's defensive issues aren't entirely his own fault even though he's ultimately responsible for what happens in the field. If the organization is determined to ride out players at certain positions they'd be better served commiting extra help to that player from the start. If they aren't going to do that then they are just delaying the inevitable to an easier position where they are out of time in the minors and have to play their way into it at the MLB level like Hall and Braun. Otherwise move the kids as soon as possible to a position that better suits them and let them play their way into it naturally if the coaching time isn't available.

[JJHardy7]

You've thrown this out there a few times, and still havent explained it. While I realize minor league scorers might make more mistakes, are you saying they consistently give errors on plays that should be credited with hits? And if thats the case wouldn't Braun's Fielding % have gotten better in the Majors, instead of getting worse?

 

I'm guessing they make more mistakes, but theres just as many hits that they give errors on as there is errors that they give hits on.

 

You can't depend on errors being accurate in the minors. I'm not saying Gamel is 'error free', but often times they'll score more errors than they will in the bigs. Comparing minor league fielding stats to major leagues can be difficult. Comparing minor to minor or majors to major might be a little bit more fair. Again, if you see enough minor league baseball this would make more sense (not calling you personally out or anything). They often times don't get the benefit of replays in the minors...especially Nashville.

 

X - my point with them being rushed is valid. Braun was rushed because of his bat. I'm not saying they shouldn't have called him up. I'd just rather have the position move made before getting to the majors. My point with Rickie vs. Prince is one was rushed up and one wasn't. Prince played almost a full year in AAA. Rickie got on one of his hot streaks and we made a trade to get him called up. It just doesn't seem to make sense at least in comparing the players. And my question is an organization question and not just Mat. Now that the team is/should be .500+ they may need to stop rushing guys up. They have talent at the MLB level now. This means they have to figure out the balancing act with the next wave of prospects as they come up IMO.

 

I don't think Mat is being hurt by being in AAA in April. I do think some are taking his quick start and maybe thinking he should be up now and I don't think 24 is too old for a player that did play some college ball. Mat does have the bat, but things have to work the right way. He makes more strides at 3B or a trade is made at the MLB level. Until one of the two happens there really isn't any reason to think he should/will be up. It will work itself out one way or another. I would at least wait until June to make a decision. Maybe the MLB team stinks and some type of move is made or Hall struggles. Right now Mat just needs to keep working on his defense.

 

We also need some positive posts. Gamel had zero errors last night and hit his 5th HR. That error ratio changed big time! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Never Outhustled]

I'd just rather have the position move made before getting to the majors

 

He makes more strides at 3B or a trade is made at the MLB level.

Thats why were talking about a possible position change for Mat now. If a trade is made, and Mat is stilling playing 3B, he doesn't get to work at his new position in AAA. Like you said, thats a big mistake.

 

My point with Rickie vs. Prince is one was rushed up and one wasn't. Prince played almost a full year in AAA

So the reason Fielder was an instant hit, but Weeks has struggled is because Fielder got 175 more AAA ABs?

[nate82]

So the reason Fielder was an instant hit, but Weeks has struggled is because Fielder got 175 more AAA ABs?

The real reason is when Weeks first hurt his wrist the Brewers allowed Weeks to come back way to early. He should have rehabbed in AAA before coming back with the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Question: When Braun was hitting .324/.370/.634 with 34 HR and 97 RBI while making 26 errors at 3B was he a "net plus" or a "net minus" to the 07 team?

 

While you can obviously say his defense reduced the impact of his offense, I think it's a reach to say it wiped out it's positive impact on that team entirely especially if you give Braun's hot 07 any credit in Fielder hitting 50 HR that year, most of which came after Braun joined the team.

 

Gamel needs to be judged in the same manner. His value to the team needs to be judged on his offense and defense. The better offensive player he is, the less his defense really matters. That's not to say the move of Braun wasn't a good thing or that a future move of Gamel won't be but considering the possible places he could be moved are manned by Fielder, Hart and Braun it's best to leave him at 3B right now. Gamel's offensive value should enhance a heavily right handed lineup and be especially beneficial to Fielder. That's why I don't understand the thinking behind replacing Fielder right now with Gamel.

[cwolf2012]

Another note on Gamel's defense at 3B:

 

According to TotalZone ratings for the minors (for what they're worth), Gamel rated out at 2 runs below average. That's a lot better than I'm guessing many of you expected.

 

Source: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/3/819366/totalzone-on-third-base-prospects

 

If Gamel ends up as a break-even player defensively in the Majors, he would be EXTREMELY valuable at 3rd base for this team. If anything, the above link at least should give some of you doubters a little bit more confidence in the guy.

[JJHardy7]

Thats why were talking about a possible position change for Mat now. If a trade is made, and Mat is stilling playing 3B, he doesn't get to work at his new position in AAA. Like you said, thats a big mistake.

 

It's all about opinion then. If the Brewers don't think Mat should stay at 3B, they should have moved him. It's clear they think he will stay there. I just hope if they do think this they let this play out a bit. Again, it's April. TGJ is hitting over .300, but I haven't seen a thread calling him up. Mat's bat is going to be sweet in the bigs, but IMO it's good for him to see another level of pitching especially after finishing last year hurt.

 

So the reason Fielder was an instant hit, but Weeks has struggled is because Fielder got 175 more AAA ABs?

 

Yes...come on. That's not what I'm saying Weeks had a hot streak in AAA and got called up with a bad glove and Braun raked and we knew his defense would struggle. They were both rushed. It doesn't matter what MLB results say. If I draft a guy #1 in June and put him in the bigs on day 1 and he's awesome, that doesn't mean every player should do that. Weeks and Braun both had 'issues' and were brought up. Braun's bat was darn good so I'd still argue that was ok, but I don't know if I would've guessed how good he would be. Weeks was rushed big time. Prince was good and played a for 'awhile' in AAA. There's no reason to sit here today and call Mat up and think we're wasting his prime years. He's only 23. He also did not have an error tonight so clearly he's on the right path http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif My point is the Brewers are in a position now to not rush up a guy like Weeks or Braun. And I've tried to post things that aren't Mat related. The Brewers (as they stand now) have a new balancing act. The first wave came through and while they are here they have to figure out how they're going to run things. What if they still had LaPorta? There'd be nowhere for him to go either. I have to imagine (at least from threads here and other 'rumors') the Brewers kept Gamel over LaPorta in the CC trade. That tells me Gamel will be staying at 3B or given every chance to.

[endaround]

Weeks was not rushed. Weeks was hitting fine until he got injured and they kept running him out there. Fielder spent more time in AAA because he was younger. Both were up at age 22. Which is why saying Gamel is "only" 23 is wrong. 23 is on the older side for good players to debut in the majors.

[PeaveyFury]

23 is on the older side for good players to debut in the majors.

 

You have facts/numbers to back this up, or is it a personal assumption?

[Never Outhustled]

It's all about opinion then. If the Brewers don't think Mat should stay at 3B, they should have moved him. It's clear they think he will stay there.

Yes, it is all about opinion, and I hope I'm wrong and Mat reals off 15 games in a row without an error. However, it was also their opinion that Braun could play 3B. I think its important to have a strong defensive team, and would like to put players in positions where they are above average, not at positions that we hope they can, over time, become average.

 

Again, it's April. TGJ is hitting over .300, but I haven't seen a thread calling him up.

If his OPS was 1.354 instead of 742 their probably would be. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[endaround]

23 is on the older side for good players to debut in the majors.

 

You have facts/numbers to back this up, or is it a personal assumption?

 

I don't have anything right here now, but in general HOF players start 19-21, solid starters 21-23. The point isn't that Gamel's bad for not being up, its that 23 isn't that young when 25 marks the upper limit of prospect status.

[PlayerHader]

Pujols-21

A-Rod-partial seasons at 19, 20. First full season at 21.

Manny-Partial season at 21. First full season at 22.

Jeter-Call-up at 21. First full season 22.

Frank Thomas-Call-up at 22. First full season at 23.

Chipper Jones-Call-up at 21. First full season at 22.

Jeff Kent-First partial season (102 games) at 24. First full season at 25.

Jeff Bagwell-First season at age 23.

 

Here's a quick list I put together of recent players who seem HOF bound. I tried avoiding steroid-babies for the most part, with obvious exceptions. Good variance of age there. Not a whole lot of 19-20 year olds. Around 21 seems to be a popular time for debuting, especially for extended stays. I don't know if this has anything to do with the thread really, but your age ranges got me interested so I did a (very) little, rudimentary research.

 

Generally I think age needs to be taken into account on a case-by-case basis. Ryan Howard could have been in Philly long before his 26th birthday, but there were reasons he was not.

[strawbossisevil]

Thats incorrect. Gamel averaged an error every 4.1 games last year, Braun averaged an error every 4.3 games for Milwaukee in 2007. I do agree that Gamel is better defensively than Braun though.

That is a horrible way of looking at it, because it doesn't take into consideration that Gamel got to a lot more balls than Braun did. Gamel had a fielding percentage of .915 last season while fielding 2.878 balls per game. Braun had a fielding percentage of .895 while fielding 2.215 balls per game.

 

I think that demonstrates just how much more instinct and range that Gamel has at 3b, that he got to over half a ball per game more than Braun did. It is not a fair comparison, comparing Gamel and Braun. One (Gamel) has the range and instincts of a 3b while the other did not.

 

For reference to how good of range Gamel has, I looked up the balls per game for some of the better 3b in the game, and Gamel's numbers topped all of the ones I looked at:

David Wright only got to 2.616 balls per game last year.

Arod got to 2.550

Longoria got to 2.756

Aram. Ramirez got to 2.218

Chipper Jones got to 2.713

Bill Hall got to 2.468

 

So assuming Gamel's range doesn't decrease, over a span of 10 games, he would get to about 4 balls more than Bill Hall did last year. He would convert over a 10 game period 26.33 outs, while committing 2.45 errors. Add the fact that Bill Hall averages over an error over that period, if Gamel put up identical defensive numbers as last year, he would convert about 2.5 more outs per 10 games than Bill Hall, or about 40 more outs more over the course of a full season.

 

Yes, he'd have more errors, but if the goal of defense is to convert outs, Gamel would do it at a higher rate than Hall.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's some encouraging stuff on Gamel, straw. However I wouldn't agree with Ramirez or Jones being some of the better fielding 3B... nitpicking. Although in re-reading that, you may have just meant 'overall', not 'defensively'

 

 

Braun had a fielding percentage of .895 while fielding 2.215 balls per game.

 

Wow. I'm going to go cry in the fetal position for a while & try to remind myself that this can't hurt me anymore.

[JJHardy7]

Weeks was not rushed. Weeks was hitting fine until he got injured and they kept running him out there. Fielder spent more time in AAA because he was younger. Both were up at age 22. Which is why saying Gamel is "only" 23 is wrong. 23 is on the older side for good players to debut in the majors.

 

So his defense was ready?

 

I also am not buying your logic on what is old and what is young. Braun was 23 when he was called up IIRC. I'm not saying Gamel needs to stay in AAA for 2 more years. I am saying it will work itself out this season and that's fine. There's no 'proven way' that says the Brewers are letting him waste in AAA. 23 is pretty darn young for a big leaguer still IMO.

 

Also, are we putting Gamel in the HOF already? We were originally comparing prospects and now he's a HOF guy? I love Gamel, but I will at least let him play in the bigs before I start that comparison. One of the great things about baseball is the stats. Let's not get carried away with that here.