The Mat Gamel watch

[JJHardy7]

And his 5th error in ten games, pushing him further from the majors. His error rate isn't nearly as good as last year, and it wasn't good enough last year.

 

You're comparing 10 games to last year?

 

I would imagine since Gamel's spring training was a little shorter than normal he's still getting back into the fielding swing of things. I personally don't use 10 games in evaluating him, but I'm not a scout.

 

It's clear your thoughts on Gamel's defense. You've posted them enough for all to read.

[logan82]

You're comparing 10 games to last year?

 

Isn't that what everybody is doing with his hitting?

[BoKnowsBall]

The thing that I like the best about his early starts is that he is really taking his walks as well.

[Never Outhustled]

I would imagine since Gamel's spring training was a little shorter than normal he's still getting back into the fielding swing of things.

He was doing fielding drills in spring before he wasn't cleared to throw. Bill Hall had a short spring too, but he's been awesome so far defensively, and Hall hasn't been playing 3B nearly as long as Gamel. Gamel isn't a position switch to 3B like Hall or Braun was, he's been playing it, in his words "I've been a third baseman since I can remember."

 

 

It's clear your thoughts on Gamel's defense. You've posted them enough for all to read.

I started this thread to discuss our best and closest prospect, and how he would best be utilized by the organization, especially since, IMO, his bat is ready to be a force in the majors right now. I will update it periodically, and hope for a change in outcome (defensively, of course, keep the raking going). It also clear your thoughts on Gamel's defense, even though the results don't match.

[JJHardy7]

Isn't that what everybody is doing with his hitting?

 

I haven't seen any ratios comparing his bat this year to last year. They shouldn't be made after 10 games despite good and bad results.

 

He was doing fielding drills in spring before he wasn't cleared to throw. Bill Hall had a short spring too, but he's been awesome so far defensively, and Hall hasn't been playing 3B nearly as long as Gamel.

 

Gamel got hurt in spring training also. The Hall comparison doesn't make any sense. Gamel is still developing at 3B. He's not a finished product. Big difference in my opinion.

 

It also clear your thoughts on Gamel's defense, even though the results don't match.

 

I've talked to folks who get paid to evaluate players. Gamel is fine from most of those accounts. I now avoid discussing it because I don't enjoy debates with those who haven't seen him play or just read box scores (I'm not trying to single anyone out). The only way to know how a MINOR LEAGUE player will perform is through scouts and hopefully they are right. I'm not saying Gamel will ever be a full-time 3B for years to come. I just think he could from those who I've talked to. Minor league league scoring is pretty sad and I don't put a lot of weight on errors. If we did, Escobar looks pretty bad this year http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Never Outhustled]

Minor league league scoring is pretty sad and I don't put a lot of weight on errors. If we did, Escobar looks pretty bad this year

Escobar also committed a fair amount of errors last year to, and yet every scouting report we read, which include comments of scouts lauds his defensive abilities becuase of his superior range.

 

 

The only way to know how a MINOR LEAGUE player will perform is through scouts and hopefully they are right.

I agree, and thats why we constantly post scouting reports of players written from writers who talk directly to scouts here at Brewerfan.net, and many of them contain direct quotes from scouts. In the past, we've seen scouts consistently comment that Weeks and Fielder were horrible defensively when they were in the minors, and they were right. The scouts loved hardy defensively, and they were right.

 

I've talked to folks who get paid to evaluate players. Gamel is fine from most of those accounts.

 

 

I find it interesting that you routinely talk to scouts that are willing to comment positively to you about Gamel's defense, yet every scout comment we read in print is negative. Is that really just random chance? Is a scouts comment to you hold more weight than a scouts comment to a professional writer? I would love to hear these comments from scouts your hearing, and would appreciate if you shared them. If you were to share what you here, we could change our views.

Also, are you really suggesting that the reason Gamel has had huge error totals each season is simply because of bad scoring, wouldn't other players have huge unjust error totals too. Is there really a massive scorer bias across America that singles out only certain minor leaguers and works to discredit them defensively year after year?

[JohnBriggs12]

Gamel with another HR today. Definitely pushing his way on to the big club.

And his 5th error in ten games, pushing him further from the majors. His error rate isn't nearly as good as last year, and it wasn't good enough last year.

 

I do, however, hope he gets recalled to DH in interleague play. He's definately better than our others options to do that.

Actually he got his 5th error yesterday. Today, he hit is 4th HR and started a game ending double play (one of several assists on the day) and did not make an error. For those keeping track it's 5 errors now in 11 games. All in all though his offense is helping the team more than his defense is hurting it.

[battlekow]

All in all though his offense is helping the team more than his defense is hurting it.

Well yeah, because he's hitting .439/.510/.838. He's not going to keep doing that, and once he settles in as a merely very good hitter, committing an error every other game will be unacceptable. It's clear that the team is waiting on his glove to bring him up, and that glove has been atrocious thus far, so he's not any closer to being called up than he was when the season began. He could be hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 and it wouldn't change that reality.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

Are Gamel's errors throwing errors, does he have bad hands, or does he have bad feet? I don't know if you can fix bad hands but guys do become more accurate throwers and their footwork can improve. Wade Boggs and George Brett were bad 3rd basemen when they came up to the majors but they became great fielders before they retired. My worry isn't Gamel's defense by itself, it is can we put another bad defender on the the infield. Prince and Rickie are among the poorer defenders at their positions. I don't know if we can afford to start 3 poor defenders.

[mkm13]

Well yeah, because he's hitting .439/.510/.838. He's not going to keep doing that, and once he settles in as a merely very good hitter, committing an error every other game will be unacceptable.

I agree his defense has not been close to acceptable. But I think if you are going to say there is no way he keeps hitting like he is I think it is also fair to say there is no way he will continue committing an error "every other game". Last year it was not close to that bad.

 

Also, if he was hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 this far into the season he would definetly be closer to being in the majors...maybe not at 3rd for the Brewers...but he would be closer to being in the majors. I know you were exadurating but in general you are just being negative.

[pete]

How many comments by actual scouts are there in print? Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein don't count.

[logan82]

I would like to know that as well. TH doesn't count either. I would like to read more by scouts, but I don't want to pay for it either.

[battlekow]

I don't have quotes from scouts, but I do have some numbers. TLDR: If Gamel merely plays defense like he did last year, it's quite possible he's an overall upgrade over Bill Hall at third right now, before further development is taken into account.

 

Note that my earlier post was not arguing for or against Gamel being called up, just pointing out that because the Brewers clearly have him in AAA to work on his defense, his poor defensive showing thus does not augur for a promotion.

 

And you're right mkm, he's not going to keep committing an error every other game any more than he's going to keep hitting .400. But his defense is what the organization is watching and what will earn him a call-up; they already know he can hit.

[colbyjack]

I'm not so sure I would say the Brewers clearly have Gamel at AAA to work on his defense. He didn't get the ABs they hoped he would in the AFL, and then he arrived to camp with a few more surprises. I think he's getting his final tuneup at AAA just like the team likes to see all of their hitters get before getting the final bump to the big-leagues. I know his defense needs work, but I don't think the Brewers have necessarily learned their lesson (if there is a lesson to be learned) from the defensive growing pains of players such as Braun and Weeks like so many seem to think they have (or at least should have).

 

And in the defense of people like Law, Goldstein and Haudricourt, these guys at least do talk to scouts from time to time to help formulate their own opinions. It's not like we have heard, seen or read any scouting reports (outside of those from the Brewers) that go out of their way to defend Gamel's eventual transition to third base defensively. To us, it sounds a lot like what we heard with Braun and Weeks about their potential to get better at their respective positions.

[battlekow]

So colby, you think that, barring a defensive regression (and of course a spate of errors to begin the season doesn't necessarily herald one), Gamel will be recalled in fairly short order?

 

EDIT: Specifically what I'm asking is, you don't think the Brewers necessarily need to see a defensive improvement to call Gamel up?

[colbyjack]

Yes, I think Gamel will be called up sooner than people think, and no, I don't think he needs to necessarily show a dramatic improvement defensively for his to get the call. Here's my response to the subject on page two:

 

Why does Gamel have to move to another position to get called up, and what has changed from two years ago to lead anyone to believe that the Brewers would keep Gamel down if he keeps swinging the bat the way he has? That didn't effect their decision with Braun, and the thought of having Gamel bat sixth behind Hardy in the current lineup, adding another potential lethal all-around bat and balance, is incredibly appealing to a team with hopes of playing in the postseason. At this point in time instead of guessing where he should be moved, I say it's time to place your bets on the over/under of him being called up by Memorial Day.

 

It's an interesting overall thought, but I think Gamel breaks in at third sooner rather than later.

 

I've added more thoughts since then, and want to add that I don't necessarily agree with it, but I guess I don't see the Brewers holding Gamel back because of his glove when his bat could really help the lineup. I'm not really arguing against anyone's thoughts, because it would be nice to see the Brewers keep a player down in the minors to work on their glove for a change. However, the Brewers have a history of drafting, developing and promoting bat-first players (the lineup is full of them), and I don't see indications that that has changed.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't have quotes from scouts, but I do have some numbers. TLDR: If Gamel merely plays defense like he did last year, it's quite possible he's an overall upgrade over Bill Hall at third right now, before further development is taken into account

I love that BCB article, but unfortunatly what we don't have is a UZR/150 stat for Gamel's performance last season. The worst starting MLB 3B defender last season was Edwin Encarnoncion. We know he committed 23 errors in 143 games, but we can't accurately contrast his range versus Gamel. Encarnacion's UZR/150 was -12.1

 

Its difficult to find someone to compare Gamel defensively to, because no MLB 3B has had 32 errors in 132 games since the UZR stat was invented. The only 3B with a similar rate of games per error is Braun, and Braun UZR/150 was -35, but I'm guessing Gamel has better range than Braun showed, possibly significantly better.

[battlekow]

X, I know it looks like I only posted one link (sorry), but there's actually two; if you follow the first, you'll find an evaluation of Gamel's defense last year according to TotalZone.

[battlekow]

And of course, Jeff's important addendum to the TotalZone ranking:

TZ is basically measuring how many balls are converted into outs. It doesn't literally take errors into account, but since an error is a ball that isn't converted into an out, it does consider errors.

But…what it doesn't do is account for the impact of extra bases on throwing errors. (A bobble will generally be the equivalent of a single, but a bad throw corked into the stands can be much worse, especially if there are runners on base.) Gamel makes a LOT of throwing errors. I don't have a handy way of counting throwing errors, but there are definitely enough to take some of the bloom off of gamel's rose.

[Never Outhustled]

X, I know it looks like I only posted one link (sorry), but there's actually two;

Thanks, I missed that. Interesting stuff.

[Tbadder]

I think it's a big mistake to bring up Gamel until he works out his defensive problems. I think it sends the wrong message to other prospects, and it may be more evidence of organizational bias that we cannot afford if we wish to be truly competitive.

 

In addition, I don't think he's a difference maker because he doesn't have the power of Braun or Fielder. Now if he's an OBP machine then I could stand corrected. The only real difference maker in the organization now is Jeffress and he's probably two years away, and may never in fact bloom into a top of the rotation guy. [by the way, by difference maker I mean a player fitting a glaring hole.]

 

Furthermore I believe (and who am I afterall, I realize) that Weeks was hurt by being brought up too quickly. If he had been allowed to get better for a year or two more I think we'd all be happier now and he would have deflected a lot of criticism both warranted and unwarranted.

 

I truly hope not to see Mat this year, even in September. I think it's far more important that Nelson gets the DHing duties against the AL teams. But alas I fear we will see him soon in June. [insert teary-eyed face here]

[jjfanec]

I agree with Tbadder that there is no reason to rush Mat up until his defense improves. Hall is hitting well enough and is playing very good defense right now at 3rd. I always struggled with Hall's defense because he would make the spectacular play but botch the easy ones but so far he playing very well. Gamel will not be hurt by staying down in the minors and getting consistent work on his defense.

[TheCrew07]

In addition, I don't think he's a difference maker because he doesn't have the power of Braun or Fielder. Now if he's an OBP machine then I could stand corrected. [by the way, by difference maker I mean a player fitting a glaring hole.]

 

Have we become so spoiled that we don't consider a guy who will likely hit .290ish/.360ish/.500ish from the left side an impact player? He could easily have 30+ HR seasons which would put him in the general neighborhood of Braun power wise and he's already a more disciplined hitter than Ryan. Again he hit 20 HRs last season while playing through an injury most of the second half, I have a very hard time understanding the comments about a lack of power. What's our benchmark for an impact bat power wise? 50 HRs? 40? For me personally once I player gets over the 20 mark I'm pretty happy, over 30 and I'm excited, anything beyond is gravy.

 

Is it because if he ends up at 1B he replaces Fielder whom we've become attached to so his offensive numbers look pedestrian? I don't understand that line of thinking because his line would as productive as Fielder (unless Prince starts hitting 50 HRs a year) while playing much better defense. Gamel has the potential to be a 3.5+ WAR player at 1B, what would be wrong with that? I also think 3.5 is erroring on the conservative side. At this moment in time, 3B is probably his least effective alternative because his defense would limit his value. Moving him off of 3B would probably increase his WAR because he'd be moving from negative defensive value to positive value.

 

Is it because we don't like him batting in the 6 hole? Why couldn't he bat in the 2 hole?

 

Money did not hesitate a second when asked to compare Gamel to Boggs last season, and then Money went on to drive home the point that Mat will hit for much better power than Wade did in his career. His potential is that vast, he's not a second tier prospect regardless of where BA has him ranked, he's an elite prospect and should be in the top 25. He's not a roleplayer.

[pete]

All sorts of people talk to scouts including Goldstein and Law, but what does that mean? Did the scouts that Law talks to make him believe that Pedroia isn't special or that McLouth is a 4th outfielder? Is it a couple scouts, some on every team or what?

 

 

 

I keep reading that he can make all the plays but is inconsistent. I don't think you can come to some conclusion based on cumulative stats, especially something as questionable as UZR. He'll either play to his ability more consistently or not.

[Never Outhustled]

At this moment in time, 3B is probably his least effective alternative because his defense would limit his value. Moving him off of 3B would probably increase his WAR because he'd be moving from negative defensive value to positive value.

His potential is that vast, he's not a second tier prospect regardless of where BA has him ranked, he's an elite prospect and should be in the top 25

I completely agree with all of this. I think some who want him to stay at 3B don't believe he is a dominant hitter. Players don't dominate the Southern League like Gamel did. The last prospect to put up a similar line is a guy Gamel compares very well to, Joey Votto, who put up a 957 OPS in 2006. Votto was already more valuable than Fielder by 2008. Gamel might even be a better hitter, if you consider his offense was derailed by injury the 2nd half of last year.

 

Gamel is an All-Star caliber player at 1B or the OF.