Hall/Weeks to the White Sox

[TooLiveBrew]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm certainly a heckuva lot closer to that description than any of the posters I had in mind with my initial comment on inside access.

[3Putt]

I'm not a big fan of so called insiders because they're just not reliable

 

Based on what? You have nothing to back this up... I was referring to people that have proven to have insider access... not wackos that make random claims.

Relax, I'm not questioning your sources. My point was that I can't tell who really does have inside information and who doesn't so I typically ignore those who make such claims. If you have true inside sources then I appreciate the fact we have you on this board to bring that kind of insight forward.

[3Putt]

Early in his career he was a decent base stealer

 

Hall has never been a good base stealer. He has had only 2 years in his entire career when he had a 70% or better success rate. He has spent most of his career, including the minors, around 50% or worse.

Maybe decent was too strong a word but my point is that earlier in his career (2004 12SB & 6CS, 2005 18SB & 6CS) he showed signs that he might be becoming a credible base stealer/runner. However, every year since he's had one more CS than SB and both numbers are in the single digits. He's regressed as a baserunner and since I'm not aware of any injuries it's all on Billy.

[Never Outhustled]

He's regressed as a baserunner and since I'm not aware of any injuries it's all on Billy.

Hall bulked up when Melvin and Yost made the moronic decision to move Hall to the OF. He played 20 pounds heavier the last 2 years. He slimmed down now, and is running better. Hall might have slimmed down when he was moved back to 3B last year, but the Brewers waited until the offseason was almost over before alerting him of the move.

 

 

Hall is a very selfish player

Totally false. This guy has been jerked around by this organization so many times its rediculous. He got moved to CF even though he never played there and would be a good 2B, and kept Weeks, a terrible 2B and who had experience in the OF, at the position. They bounced him back in forth between 3B and SS. They gave Hardy the SS position in 2005, even though it was abundantly clear in spring training that Hall was a breakout player and Hardy was no where near ready.

 

Hall isn't selfish, but he would have good reason to start being that way.

[PeaveyFury]

Totally false. This guy has been jerked around by this organization so many times its rediculous.

 

I agree completely. Say what you will about Hall, but the guy has really done everything the organization has asked of him even when it was not even close to the best thing for Billy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Again, as I mentioned to take with requiste grains of salt... I just recall a couple/few posters that seemed to demonstrate being reliable in terms of knowing a bit behind the scenes mentioning this about Hall. I don't personally have any agenda or any real problem with Hall. Sorry for dragging this down into a back & forth on his character. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif I agree he's been a trooper in terms of moving around on the diamond.

[pete]

I suspect if there is fire to the smoke, Macha would sit him some. I think he may have tried some things and reverted during a cold stretch.

[pete]

I am baffled that anyone with baseball/hitting knowledge

 

One of the Milwaukee radio stations loves to use a sound drop of Yost saying almost this exact phrase.

[Never Outhustled]

Agree to disagree I guess. Kinda blows my mind that anyone can think that. I also can't believe someone from this site is using an ops as evidence after a week either.

 

You really dont see him trying to pull every pitch? Hart is doing exactly what you need to do with that pitch right now, going with it and driving it to right. Hall has that ability when he doesn't dive out on his front foot and try and yank eveything.

 

I strongly believe he will not have a good year with that approach. Nothing at all has shown me he's any different than last year. He is at his best driving the ball to right center and not selling out to try and get out in front of every pitch. He's limiting his plate coverage. He needs to let the ball travel and pound it to right if that's how he's being pitched. I am baffled that anyone with baseball/hitting knowledge would think his approach is sound right now.

Try looking at a spray chart before being so condescending. Hall has always been a dead pull hitter against righties. His spray charts from 2005-2006 look exactly like his spray charts from 2007-2008. The difference is in 2005-2006, Hall had the batspeed to turn on inside pitches with authority. Then he decided to bulk up when moved to the OF. That ruined him, because he lost batspeed and couldn't jerk pitches middle in.

 

Hall has lost the bulk got his batspeed back, and looks like the guy he used to be, the one the earned this contract. Like I said earlier, his swing will never look pretty, but its effective. Combined with his defense, and you have one of the most valuable players on the team.

 

Hall is on pace for over 4.6 value wins this year. Thats outstanding. His contract is a bargain. Fielder is the bad salary in this lineup next year, not Hall. Hall is Adrian Beltre for half the money.

[Invader3K]

Fielder is bad salary? I think he's going to come around and perform similar to how he's done in the past. If he does that, I don't see how it can be considered bad salary.

 

I do think Hall is under appreciated. He never had the hype of the other young guys like Weeks and Hardy, though there was probably some reason for that. His great season in '06 was disregarded as a fluke, and even though he hasn't been horrible since then, everyone seems to make him their whipping mule when this team is struggling. Now that he's playing well again, people are saying we should trade the guy so the Brewers can bring up someone who can't possibly match his defense at the moment.

[Never Outhustled]

Fielder is bad salary? I think he's going to come around and perform similar to how he's done in the past. If he does that, I don't see how it can be considered bad salary.

I agree Fielder will pick up the pace on offense, and have a season similar to last year. However, he was worth just 2.6 Value Wins last year. If we pay $10.5 million, plus another $500 K for his PA incentive, for under 3 Value Wins next year, that isn't a good deal for a mid market team.

[Invader3K]

But it might be a great deal for a large market team, or one with a real need for a power hitting first baseman...though for the record, I'd probably be inclined to hope the Brewers don't trade him until after next season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall is on pace for over 4.6 value wins this year. Thats outstanding. His contract is a bargain. Fielder is the bad salary in this lineup next year, not Hall. Hall is Adrian Beltre for half the money.

 

I get the point you're making, and offensively the comparison may be apt. However, defensively, Hall is not the caliber of player Beltre is. I should say, though, that imho there aren't more than a small handful of 3B defenders that are in Beltre's stratosphere.

[southpaw121505]

It has nothing to do with bat speed, Hall has always been able to crush MISTAKES IN. Pitchers aren't going to keep giving him anything in if he doesn't effectively handle the soft stuff outside. Hall is playing great right now, and I love it and hope it continues. I don't dislike Hall, I'm critical of him because I think he is talented enough to fix the hole in his swing and approach that would make him better.

[logan82]

Fielder was worth $11.7M last year according to Fangraphs. I really doubt he is worth less than the $18.5M he will be paid over the next 2 years.

[Never Outhustled]

Fielder was worth $11.7M last year according to Fangraphs. I really doubt he is worth less than the $18.5M he will be paid over the next 2 years.

As a mid market team, we can't pay players what their worth, as that worth includes what the Yankees and Red Sox pay players. Our players need to be bargains, and Fielder will be the 2nd worst dollars per production players in our lineup next year, besides the catchers, and that could become debatable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Logan mentioned it from examining the whole contract though, not just 2010. I also disagree with the specifics of your 'we can't pay players what they're worth', but I get the general point so no use quibbling over semantics.

[logan82]

As a mid market team, we can't pay players what their worth, as that worth includes what the Yankees and Red Sox pay players. Our players need to be bargains, and Fielder will be the 2nd worst dollars per production players in our lineup next year, besides the catchers, and that could become debatable.

 

We are still going to be paying him less than he is worth in each year unless he really falls off. Even looking at his last year where we owe him approx. $10.5M we are still getting at less than market value. He has had values of $20.2M and $11.7M the last 2 years. I think it is safe to say he lies somewhere in between those values on a per year basis. He is no longer going to be good dollars per production guy compared to other players because of the simple fact that he is further into arbitration than many other players and has had a couple big seasons. His contract is still reasonable for this year and next year.

 

He may not be a bargain, but we are not going to easily replace his production. He is not breaking the bank as of right now and probably will not until he hits free agency. It is easier to replace other guys with cheaper, equivalent talent than Prince.

[Never Outhustled]

It is easier to replace other guys with cheaper, equivalent talent than Prince.

Prince will have fewer value wins than everybody but the catcher this year. Prince plays a position anyone could play, well, except him. Who is this equivilent talent your replacing others with?

[logan82]

Prince will have fewer value wins than everybody but the catcher this year.

 

The is a little over dramatic at this point in the season don't you think?

[Never Outhustled]

The is a little over dramatic at this point in the season don't you think?

Is it? I suppose Hart could crash like he did last year. I truely believe the real Bill Hall is back. Weeks could regress to his career norms, but I doubt it, I don't even think he as hot as he could get. Cameron is already just 1 Value Win from Fielders entire 2008 total, and its May 1st.

[Invader3K]

Prince will have fewer value wins than everybody but the catcher this year. Prince plays a position anyone could play, well, except him. Who is this equivilent talent your replacing others with?

Who's the equivalent talent you'd be replacing Fielder with?

[logan82]

Who is this equivilent talent your replacing others with?

 

Equivalent probably wasn't completely accurate. We have prospects who are probably close to the talent of all of our MLB players who will be ready in the next 3 years except for Prince and Braun.

 

Weeks could regress to his career norms

 

That would be an improvement on offense if he did. He is slugging, but his OBP sucks. He has had better years.

[Never Outhustled]

Equivalent probably wasn't completely accurate. We have prospects who are probably close to the talent of all of our MLB players who will be ready in the next 3 years except for Prince and Braun.

I'm not saying we don't have some very talented prospects, I'm asking why they could easily replace someone else, but not a low Value win player like Fielder? Its very possible the Brewers will have 7 position players with at least 3.5 Value Wins this year, including Hall and Weeks, and that group likely wouldn't include Fielder.

[Invader3K]

I just have a hard time believing that Fielder is as "unvaluable" to the team as you are positing. He is going to put up huge offensive numbers again, and his defense seems to have gotten at least somewhat better than last year.