How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[Fatter than Joey]

If Suppan is the 42nd best SP in the NL, then he is a #3 starter on an average NL team. That seems perfectly par to me.

 

You missed the qualifier for 160 IP.

 

While it is certainly arguable that Suppan has historically had value -- it certainly isn't at the #3 spot in recent years.

[kramnoj]

You missed the qualifier for 160 IP.

 

While it is certainly arguable that Suppan has historically had value -- it certainly isn't at the #3 spot in recent years

 

No, I didn't. That qualifier is important. That's pretty much the biggest contribution that Suppan can bring, durable medicority.

 

If he isn't on for a particular game, he has a high chance of getting blown out. The manager is responsible for managing the game, and that includes recognizing when Suppan doesn't have his stuff and pulling him before he allows too many runs for the offense to overcome. When Suppan can control his pitches and his defense will catch the BIP, he can be a decent starter.

[MessiahRp]

Among 45 NL pitchers with at least 160 IP, Suppan was:

 

42nd/45 in ERA

42nd/45 in WHIP

42nd/45 in K/9

 

If that's not "very sub-par" then what is??

 

There are 16 teams in the NL. If Suppan is the 42nd best SP in the NL, then he is a #3 starter on an average NL team. That seems perfectly par to me.

This sample shows pitchers that had at least 160 IP not every pitcher in every rotation. I would wager that a lot of the pitchers towards the bottom of that 45 got pulled from their rotation spot at some point, or a lot of pitchers not in that 45 won rotation spots over these bottom guys because they were better but don't qualify under the 160 IP yardstick for this stat.

 

Either way a lot of MLB teams would not be starting Suppan at all with the way he has pitched and worse yet we have to watch our team accumulate losses under the crappy argument that as a small market team we need to keep and play someone we made a horrendous judgment on and overpaid. That's a loser of an argument to me. If there's a scrub on the waiver wire who can pitch and win more games than a $27 million albatross, then I dump the albatross because it's supposed to be about winning not hanging onto your pride because you made a very poor and costly decision in the front office.

 

Rp

[Fatter than Joey]

No, I didn't. That qualifier is important.

 

Then you are mis-applying it. In any given year there are going to be a lot of pitchers that come up from AAA that are going to pitch < 160 IP, but be more effective than someone like Suppan.

 

That's pretty much the biggest contribution that Suppan can bring, durable medicority.

 

Agreed -- however, not as a #3... If Suppan can pitch 160 innings at a ~5.00 ERA he has a ton of value at the end of the rotation.

 

As I showed earlier in this thread -- Historically, you don't have a lot of pitchers getting 160 IP with an ERA substantially over 5.00 -- the only ones you have are overpaid vets (Zito, Suppan) and young pitchers trying to realize their upside (Snell, Kendrick, etc...), otherwise you are going to lose your spot.

 

Essentially a GM has to justify giving the ball to a 5.00+ ERA pitcher -- either because they gave them a stupid contract, or they are waiting for them to break out.

[Ennder]

If you change the qualifier to just 140 IP you find 7 pitchers worse than him in ERA and 5 more that were over 4.75 but under his 4.96. Difference between a 4.77 ERA and a 4.96 ERA really isn't meaningful. Suppan as a #5 is fine as long as he doesn't keep walking guys like last game. DiFelice would be better though~.

[kramnoj]

Either way a lot of MLB teams would not be starting Suppan at all with the way he has pitched and worse yet we have to watch our team accumulate losses under the crappy argument that as a small market team we need to keep and play someone we made a horrendous judgment on and overpaid.

 

Suppan is starting because he has success as a SP, including games pitched last year. If there was clearly a better alternative, do you really think Attanasio would let his team lose games as some sort of justification for salary? It didn't keep Gagne in the closer role last year, and it didn't keep Yost from being unprecedently fired last year.

 

Regarding the title of this thread, Suppan has a longer leash, because of his salary, and because of his success. But I don't see this team riding Suppan's failures into June. If Suppan can't show success in a reasonable timeframe, there will be alternatives explored. The key question is when that will be. Two starts this season isn't enough, and it's not clear to me that we should lump last season's losing streak into the equation without talking about the season as a whole.

 

I think Suppan deserves at least two more starts. His next start against the Mets will probably be tough, but then it looks like he is scheduled against the Astros. If he can't put together a decent start by then, then DiFelice or McClung deserve a look.

[kramnoj]

Then you are mis-applying it. In any given year there are going to be a lot of pitchers that come up from AAA that are going to pitch < 160 IP, but be more effective than someone like Suppan.

 

Sure, the smaller samples that someone performs in, the greater chance they will look good. I don't think Suppan is a #3 starter, but the facts that were presented to make him look "very sub-par" didn't do anything of the sort. If you have 45 geniuses in a room, the one with the 42nd highest IQ isn't very sub-par. S/he just happens to be near the bottom of that particular list in that particular category.

[Fatter than Joey]

If there was clearly a better alternative, do you really think Attanasio would let his team lose games as some sort of justification for salary?

 

I think that this is an important point -- I think if we had a 22 year old stud in AAA, Suppan would be feeling a lot more heat. I feel the same about Weeks as I do Suppan in a large part -- I don't think Chris Narveson or Chase Wright is going to do much better, much like I don't think there is anybody that could do better than Weeks on our farm.

 

Two starts this season isn't enough, and it's not clear to me that we should lump last season's losing streak into the equation without talking about the season as a whole.

 

Right -- I do think though that Suppan's numbers are overall indicating he is eroding though -- unlike say someone like Wang or Lincecum who are struggling, however probably shouldn't be expected to.

 

I think Suppan deserves at least two more starts.

 

I would even say more than 2, unless they are both abominations like his last one was. I don't think McClung has shown that he can do better -- and I am not sure DiFelice can even start right now if we wanted him to. I'd rather see DeFelice getting stretched out in AAA than BP work at the MLB level.

 

I guess once Hoffman comes back, I'd send DiFelice to AAA, get him in that rotation, and then I'd probably feel a lot better about yanking Suppan.

[Fatter than Joey]

Sure, the smaller samples that someone performs in, the greater chance they will look good.

 

Perhaps, but more likely, they are better pitchers -- it is really the simplest answer.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why is it so hard for you and strawboss to either not comment on this thread, or frame your response in the way the original poster asked?

 

Because the discussion evolves beyond the original post once you hit 10 pages or so http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm not really sure what you're asking of me here -- I don't think I've failed to answer the question.

 

 

If you believe that Suppan should be able to pitch the entire season regardless of ERA -- then just say it without irrelevant, inaccurate and incomplete lectures on sample-size.

 

Again, I don't know why you're demanding I address the question in this manner. I'm the one that's lecturing?

 

 

There is certainly evidence to suggest that Suppan is eroding.

 

There's also a lot of historical data (not just on Soup) to suggest that fans are overreacting to a small sample because of the emotional attachment to the team/game/player(s). I don't think Suppan is a great option... in fact during the offseason I participated in several discussions where I think I mentioned that in a best-case scenario for Jeff, I felt he's our 5th-best SP. In short, my opinion has not changed. I think he's better than McClung, and should & will be given every chance to pitch.

 

Now, I still prefer DiFelice, but I'm only counting him as a dark-horse candidate to even get considered for the rotation (even though if I'd been able to design things, Mark would have gotten the nod over Soup). If I thought there was a realistic chance DiFelice would get considered I guess I'd be clamoring more for him. But Macha will really (pleasantly) surprise me if he goes to DiFelice if Suppan continues to struggle. Managers in general just aren't that innovative a species. I hope Macha proves more creative than most.

 

 

At least, these posters even though they are extreme, are adding to the discussion in the framework requested. They believe that Suppan should have "no leash".

 

Because someone goes to one extreme (without necessarily having the ammo to back it up), am I supposed to be pushed toward the other extreme? Finding a middle ground is perfectly acceptable to me, and especially in this case. How long should his leash be? I don't know -- I understand that's not a game-sensitive prediction, but I don't believe it should be based upon X more games of performance level Z. It really depends on how he pitches, not how he pitched in one or a few bad outings. Again, we are not going to agree on his performance on OD, so might as well let him get some more starts in.

 

If he has a few more starts like OD, I will continue to defend him & argue that the Brewers should stick with him. If it's a few more starts like his last one, I will be very much pushing/hoping for DiFelice to get a shot.

[MessiahRp]

Either way a lot of MLB teams would not be starting Suppan at all with the way he has pitched and worse yet we have to watch our team accumulate losses under the crappy argument that as a small market team we need to keep and play someone we made a horrendous judgment on and overpaid.

 

Suppan is starting because he has success as a SP, including games pitched last year. If there was clearly a better alternative, do you really think Attanasio would let his team lose games as some sort of justification for salary? It didn't keep Gagne in the closer role last year, and it didn't keep Yost from being unprecedently fired last year.

Gagne did get pulled from the Closer role but they kept giving him chances in the pen even when he was giving up a ton of runs. Sure towards the end of the year he started to look somewhat better but he had a multitude of chances to do this... same as Turnbow and in both cases I truly believe it was out of justification of their salaries.

 

The Tigers released Sheffield and his $12 million salary. I don't think we would ever do that. I think our team would play the big salary guy until they had absolutely no other choice. No we don't have a stud starter in the minors (wish Jeffress would get it together already), but if you're giving up 6 runs in 4 or 5 IP, it's not hard to find a scrub who is above replacement for that.

 

Rp

[kramnoj]

Gagne did get pulled from the Closer role but they kept giving him chances in the pen even when he was giving up a ton of runs.

 

Unfortunately, that's the way baseball works. You actually need to let players fail to figure out if they are truly bad or just going through a tough spot.

 

CC last year had a terrible first 4 starts: 27 ER in 18 IP. Sometimes players just need to work through the first couple of weeks to get going.

 

The Tigers released Sheffield and his $12 million salary. I don't think we would ever do that.

 

Which do you think influences your opinion more: your history of being a Brewer fan, or the choices that Attanasio and Melvin have made? I think this ownership group and FO have done enough unprecedented things to give them the benefit of the doubt and not assume they will do bad things because other baseball teams do bad things.

[rluzinski]

I think people are missing the correlation between expected future performance and salary when trying to find evidence that teams stick with bad players when they are paid more. They are paid more because of past success. That's why you determine who should start based on all the information, not just the results of a few starts.

 

Now, Suppan's projections were pretty bad going into the season. An ERA of 6 for half a season will probably be enough to bump his projected ERA over the projections for the alternatives. As it stands, I'm not sure if the Brewers even have a better alternative, though. McClung perhaps, but that's about it, IMO.

[RobertR]

It's probably worth pointing out that Suppan isn't the only pitcher struggling. I have my doubts about him straightening himself out, but did anyone catch Wang's line from last night? Brutal. There's a lot of pitchers out there that haven't pitched well that will be given the chance to straighten themselves out, so while I'm concerned I don't fault the Brewers from having a little patience. Even if Suppan is the first starter in the rotation, at the end of the year it will mean that he'll have at most one more start than any other rotation spot.

 

Robert

[Fatter than Joey]

Because the discussion evolves beyond the original post once you hit 10 pages or so

 

Fair enough.

 

Because someone goes to one extreme (without necessarily having the ammo to back it up), am I supposed to be pushed toward the other extreme?

 

No, not at all -- I just think you could have framed your answer in a quantifiable manner -- I think that was the point of the original post as in "X ERA after Y Time". I would have been sincerely interested in your opinion as stated like that.

 

There's also a lot of historical data (not just on Soup) to suggest that fans are overreacting to a small sample because of the emotional attachment to the team/game/player(s)

 

Sure but there is as much historical data that teams/managers either overreact to small samples, just like fans, or wait too long to make changes because of attachments to players. I don't know why fans have to be the ones that are always demonized, .... when there is Ned Yost sitting right there, staring at you in a surly manner... but I digress...

 

Again, we are not going to agree on his performance on OD, so might as well let him get some more starts in.

 

I don't think he pitched as bad on OD as he did in his last start -- I think his OD start was "neutral" I guess -- I just didn't see anything in that start that made me think his next one was going to be any better. I NEVER expected him to walk in 3 guys in one inning, but he did.

 

I understand that's not a game-sensitive prediction, but I don't believe it should be based upon X more games of performance level Z.

 

I looked at it the question as trying to predict what the Brewers would do, not what I would do necessarily. -- For example, I think it would take an ERA of near 6.00 sometime in June for the Brewers to even consider pulling Suppan from the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think that was the point of the original post as in "X ERA after Y Time". I would have been sincerely interested in your opinion as stated like that.

 

Well I guess I can't let go of performance v. results... so with that caveat http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ... if Soup isn't able to reign in his ERA somewhere below 6 by the end of May then I'd like to see the Brewers go with someone else. As I mentioned, I hope that would be DiFelice... I don't think McClung isn't a net upgrade over Suppan. Imho he is just a different kind of stinky.

 

For me part of the difficulty in projecting what timeframe the Brewers will give to Suppan is that I don't think he's anywhere nearly as bad as the results from his last two starts. Somewhere around a 5 ERA & ~200 IP is what Soup is to me. I think that by the end of the season that's about where he'll sit, and that's probably fine as back-end SP.

[pete]

Man, if Soup could be around a 5.5 ERA and hit a high innings limit, that would be a great thing. Three or 4 runs given up and leaving around the 6th inning, the team would probably win a fair number of games. Its hard to discuss someone who is so brutally bad in his last start, especially after the game in the playoffs and the last month.

 

Is there anyone who follows the Cubs even casually who doesn't know that Soriano loves hitting early count fastballs? Why did he have batters where he was waaaaay off the strike zone for most or all of his pitches? There were people who did a screen capture of Corey's awful at bat last September. Soup's would be just as painful I'd guess.

 

It seems like it goes beyond a bad outing or a small sample. When I see his older games on the MLB network, he looks pretty much the same stuff wise. Maybe if he isn't physically injured, he's mentally wounded. There seems to be more to the story whatever it is.

[Thurston Fluff]

Macha will have the team playing much better in August and September than they are now. You can say "That wouldn't take much" and not be totally wrong, but the reality is that his predecessor was not good at getting good teams to play better ball down the stretch.

 

How does Yost not getting good teams to play better down the stretch make Macha able to? I think he can do so simply because he isn't getting them to play very well now. I do think it takes some time for the players and coaches to jell like it did for the Cubs a couple years ago but that has nothing to do with Yost.

 

Actually, Bush was in fact put on waivers to be able to accept his minor league assignment.

 

IIRC he had an option left and didn't need to clear waivers.

He gives this team NOTHING positive right now. We can have some AAA scrub come up and pitch mop up duty...don't need soup to do that.

 

If we release Soup and call up a scrub for mop up duty then we pay for Soup and the extra salary of said mop up AAA scrub. Not to mention a team we are competing against might need him to cover an injury. He may not be good but, like Jim Edmunds last year, he could get released by us and get picked up by the Cubs after an injury or two for instance and we then pay for them to have a better alternative than they could find on their own.

It hardly makes economic sense to pay $12.75ish million to do the same job that could be done at $12.5 million. All releasing a player does is guarantee he will not make any contributions at all for the team and may even help a competitor on our dime. Granted it makes fans feels better but it is a very poor way to manage a payroll. The only time it makes any sense at all to release a player whose salary has to be paid is if he is blocking a decidedly better player from playing.

 

Okay, but he needs to at least eat a full meal of 6-7 innings every 5 days...the 4-5 inning snacks have got to end.

 

Of course he does. Two starts of sub par innings is not good but he has done that in the past as does every pitcher including Cy Young winners like CC and Lincecum. I think there is a better chance he will go 8 innings a couple times this year to make up for his shortfall so far as there is he will never get to 6 innings again.

 

You missed the qualifier for 160 IP.

 

While it is certainly arguable that Suppan has historically had value -- it certainly isn't at the #3 spot in recent years.

 

When you got paid specifically for being able to go over 160 pitchers per year it should be noted in accessing his value. He is not a #3 now but he still has value as a starter for this team specifically because of his reliability. He is not worth the money but he still has value for this team because he is still capable of doing the very thing he was brought in to do. As any fan of the Brewers knows all too well with Ben Sheets stability has value. Not $12.5 million in today's market but still enough to warrant more of a leash than three or four games.

The Tigers released Sheffield and his $12 million salary. I don't think we would ever do that. I think our team would play the big salary guy until they had absolutely no other choice.

 

If the Brewers under the Seligs released Hammonds and Berry with significant money left on their deals I think Mark A will now if Doug told him he thought Soup was done as a major league pitcher.

[endaround]

No he had to clear waivers to be sent down, but not DFA'd. If anybody claimed him the Brewers could have rescinded the waivers so it wasn't really meaningful to claim him unless some team really wants to screw up the Brewer's roster management.

[UeckerAddict]

5 of his last 6 starts (dating back to last year and the playoffs) he has not pitched more than four innings. In his last eight starts he has not pitched more that 5.1. I know that the small sample police are on the case, but how long do you really let him go before there just has to be a better option? I wanted him in the bullpen to start the season, and I feel hat if he didn't have this contract, he might be. I don't know if Defelice or Wright has the ability to step up and produce, but someone has to eat some innings if our bullpen is going to last through June. I really hope Suppan can figure it out, but I'm not betting on it.

[mothershipconnection]

If that's not "very sub-par" then what is??

 

There are 16 teams in the NL. If Suppan is the 42nd best SP in the NL, then he is a #3 starter on an average NL team. That seems perfectly par to me.

 

You missed the qualifier for 160 IP.

 

No, I didn't.

 

You did if you infer from those data that Suppan is a #3 starter on an average team.

 

Durability only matters if the mediocrity that comes with it is better than what will replace that pitcher. For example, if you have a reliable SP with an ERA of 6, and could bring in a revolving crew of scrubs with ERA's from 4.5-5.5, we're better off making the switch.

 

I don't have the data, but to say Suppan is average, we'd want to just throw IP qualifiers by using a 160 IP amalgam of small sample pitchers (e.g. all rotation spots filled by multiple pitchers using the first 160 combined IP) and then compare numbers by rotation slots, which still has its obvious flaws. That, or we can look at median numbers which should control somewhat for flukes in both good and bad directions.

[strawbossisevil]

Haha, nice try FTJ. Although your idea for the bet shows a serious lack of all creativity (I am actually very disappointed, I expected better).

 

Here is what I propose. If Suppan finishes the year with an ERA under 5.25, I will agree with anything you say on this board for a whole month (October), no matter how ridiculous of a point you make.

 

If he finishes with an ERA over 5.25, you will agree with anything I say on the board, no matter how much you disagree for a whole month (October).

 

The loser will also have to include a note that he lost the bet in their signature. Perhaps with the phrase "I like the taste of crow". The person will be required to have it in their signature until the start of the next season.

 

Either that or you could just "leave town" no matter what the result of the bet. I'd agree to that.

[kramnoj]

You did if you infer from those data that Suppan is a #3 starter on an average team.

 

This has already been discussed if you read further.

 

Durability only matters if the mediocrity that comes with it is better than what will replace that pitcher. For example, if you have a reliable SP with an ERA of 6, and could bring in a revolving crew of scrubs with ERA's from 4.5-5.5, we're better off making the switch.

 

I'm not aware of any scrubs who should be counted on to have a 4.5 ERA, are you? Futhermore, I don't see why you are comparing this to a an ERA of 6. This seems to fit the definition of a strawman argument.

 

If you want to compare the Suppan to pitchers who do better in fewer IP, you also need to look at the other IP that had to be thrown because the better pitcher didn't pitch a full season worth of IP. Chances are it was below average. That whole combination would need to be explored before it is clear that another team was better off with a better pitcher throwing fewer IP.

[Roscoe Chill]

Haha, nice try FTJ. Although your idea for the bet shows a serious lack of all creativity (I am actually very disappointed, I expected better).

Here is what I propose. If Suppan finishes the year with an ERA under 5.25, I will agree with anything you say on this board for a whole month (October), no matter how ridiculous of a point you make.

If he finishes with an ERA over 5.25, you will agree with anything I say on the board, no matter how much you disagree for a whole month (October).

The loser will also have to include a note that he lost the bet in their signature. Perhaps with the phrase "I like the taste of crow". The person will be required to have it in their signature until the start of the next season.

Either that or you could just "leave town" no matter what the result of the bet. I'd agree to that.

 

 

And the that is "creative?" Sounds kind of like a lame comedy that is canceled before the WHOLE month is up. Lamest bet proposal ever...sorry.

 

Just admit that you think Suppan is going to have an ERA above 5.15 or take the bet.

[strawbossisevil]

It's a whole lot more creative than kicking people off of the site, explain to me how that is in any way creative. I honestly think Suppan could end up with an ERA anywhere between 4.75 and 5.25.

 

And even if I thought I was 90% likely to win this bet, I still value the ability to participate on this site that I'm not willing to take the 10% risk of not being able to post.