How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[Fatter than Joey]

Was it last year that everyone wanted Bush DFAd because of a few bad starts to start the year?

 

No. It was pretty much Yost and perhaps Melvin. Yost put Bush in some sort of Road/home platoon with McClung -- that I think almost everyone here thought was universally moronic.

 

It´s a good thing the Brewers didn´t do that last season.

 

Actually, Bush was in fact put on waivers to be able to accept his minor league assignment.

 

It´s interesting how the same lesson needs to be learned year after year after year by fans.

 

This is a pretty self-righteous statement for someone who seems to have forgotten Dave Bush was placed on waivers last year. Also, it is not as if the Brewers have never stood behind a good number of players or managers for way too long in their history. I certainly agree that the Brewers should exercise patience a lot better than their fans -- but there have been many times when the majority of this board was probably more correct on players and personnel than the Brewers have been.

 

No one´s happy with Suppan´s first two starts, but two starts is not nearly enough to make a judgment in regards to how he´ll pitch the rest of the year.

 

The vast majority of posters in this thread are not calling for the outright release of Suppan -- and would agree that Suppan needs more starts.

 

It´s probably likely that Suppan has an ERA somewhere in the area of 5 (perhaps a bit lower, perhaps a bit higher) at season end.

 

Care to make a wager? -- Over/Under of 5.15?

 

Soup isn't as bad as his results have been lately.

 

He walked in 3 straight runs... What result did he deserve?

 

Honestly, the guy outpitches the defending CY winner on OD

 

This is a pretty loaded statement and you know it. First, it's not as if one pitcher's performance is dependent on the other. Second, he didn't "outpitch" he was "less crappy".

 

then has a bad start & the Brewers are supposed to flat-out release the guy?

 

Again, very few people actually advocating this....

 

I know he's not a great pitcher, but I guess the overreaction to this shouldn't surprised me so much.

 

Agreed -- and thanks for not using the "OMG", "!!@@@!!111" and "words ending in z".

[bjkrautk]

Just to try and contribute something new to this thread, here's how Suppan started 2008:

 

April Splits - 34.2 IP, 6 GS, 5.19 ERA, 5 HR, 11 BB, 12 K

 

Looking at the game log, he had 4 quality starts, and two severe beatings (including giving up 11 runs on 11 hits to the Cubs, also in 3 2/3 Innings. By that standard, he's actually improving). I think the odds are slightly better that he rebounds and falls more into line with our expectations than he continues to fall apart. One quality start would go a long way in changing perspectives on the guy.

[strawbossisevil]

Now that Yost is gone and Weeks is playing very well, I guess Suppan is the next on the FTJ hate list. Proceed with the hate.

 

I would take the under on the 5.15 going forward. I suppose it's possible that his first two ugly starts could bump his ERA over that, especially if he gets his starts skipped quite frequently.

 

And perhaps you haven't suggested DFAing him, but others have. So those comments of mine wouldn't apply to you, would they. Can't I react to those people? Last I checked, my post was not a response to one of yours.

 

As far as Bush, you may have realized the stupidity in the talk of DFA Bush talk, but many others did not. Plus I am talking about the beginning of the year (Bush's first few starts), not the mid year happenings (when the Bush/McClung duo was being considered). If those people had their way, we probably don't even make the playoffs last year. And putting Bush on waivers (which is done with nearly every player at some point during the year) and DFAing him is a huge difference.

 

Look, I don't blame anyone if Suppan isn't their favorite player. The guy makes way too much money for his role on the team. But that doesn't change the fact that he still has some value to our team, since we have him signed anyway.

[Fatter than Joey]

One quality start would go a long way in changing perspectives on the guy.

 

You bet. I am not sure how he reduces his walks, without getting crushed.

[MJLiverock]

I think part of the frustration for me with last night effort was his absolute and utter lack of control. It wasn't like Suppan was getting squeezed or just missing his spots, he was missing the zone by feet not inches. I don't know if it was psychological after he, for whatever reason, decided to groove a BP fastball on the first pitch of the game to a guy who thrives on first pitch fastballs. His pitches to Hill, Dempster, and Soriano in the walkathon weren't even close enough to make the batter think about anything except wondering if they would be hit by the next one.

 

My wife asked me why the Brewers always have pitchers who can't throw strikes. It was pretty funny trying to explain there have been guys but only being able to come up Sheets, CC, Bush (of a few years ago), and hopefully Gallardo. She knew all about the nibbler, Doug Davis, and remembered Gagne's struggles, Vargas, and Turnbow. Of course when Suppan finally came out, Julio comes in and starts spiking balls, hitting batters, and "aiming for the bull". She rested her case as McClung rounded out the walk parade.

 

It actually made me wonder if there is some sort of organization bias against pounding the zone or is it just because the Brewers struggle to develop pitchers so they take chances on guys with live arms and hope to fix them (Turnbow, Gagne, Cappellan, McClung, Julio) or take guys who have been lucky nibbling the edges with weak stuff (Davis, Suppan, Vargas, etc.) Dave Duncan, in St. Louis, has had good luck getting results from what seem to be marginal to average guys and his mantra is pound the zone so how does he get guys like Suppan, Looper, Lohse, Wellemeyer to throw strikes?

 

I just looked at Wellemeyer's stats since has always seemed pretty mediocre to me and until he got to St. Louis he was a 1.5-1.6 WHIP guy, even in AAA he was 1.40. His two years in St. Louis have been 1.25 and 1.27 his BB/9 has dropped from about 6 to around 3.

[Fatter than Joey]

Now that Yost is gone and Weeks is playing very well, I guess Suppan is the next on the FTJ hate list. Proceed with the hate.

 

I'm still pretty much hung up on Yost yet. I really haven't moved on.

 

I would take the under on the 5.15 going forward.

 

Wager then?

 

And perhaps you haven't suggested DFAing him, but others have. So those comments of mine wouldn't apply to you, would they. Can't I react to those people? Last I checked, my post was not a response to one of yours.

 

Your post definitely was written from the perspective of the minority addressing the majority. Your arguments seem very strawmanish in nature.

 

Plus I am talking about the beginning of the year (Bush's first few starts), not the mid year happenings (when the Bush/McClung duo was being considered).

 

Bush was sent to AAA on April 27th, not the middle of the year.

 

If those people had their way, we probably don't even make the playoffs last year.

 

Again, Bush was sent to AAA, and put on a ridiculous home/away platoon by Yost/Melvin.

 

And putting Bush on waivers (which is done with nearly every player at some point during the year) and DFAing him is a huge difference.

 

Bush was put on waivers, sent to AAA, then put on an insane platoon. He may as well been DFA'd -- you are right though, it is different -- but the point remains, that the Brewers, weren't exactly patient with Bush as you are trying to claim.

 

The Brewers can be over-patient and under-patient -- just like the fans.

[endaround]

Davis really didn't have a problem until his last year with the Brewers. Suppan hasn't had such a problem until now. Melvin does love power bullpen arms no matter the control issues though.

[strawbossisevil]

What do you want to Wager FTJ? I'm not one who gambles money, but I'm certainly up for a wager that involves a creative reward for the winner/punishment for the loser. Lay some ideas on me.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is a pretty loaded statement and you know it. First, it's not as if one pitcher's performance is dependent on the other. Second, he didn't "outpitch" he was "less crappy"

 

Call it what you like, but Suppan pitched better than Lincecum on OD. Of course it's a loaded statement, but so are the cries for Suppan to be stashed in the pen under Marcus Hanel's duffelbag (I exaggerate...). Point being that the (extreme) reactions by fans are more based on this being the first meaningful baseball played in ~6 mos. than on any actual demonstrable loss of skill by Soup.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Is there a rule that you are not allowed to release players who you have under contract? Last time I checked no, this is the kind of Ned Yost attitude that got us nowhere. The mariners released Richie when he proved to not be a major league player anymore, Detroit with Sheff (hahaha) and so on. Right now it is a serious legitimate OPTION to outright release Jeff Suppan.

 

1. The Mariners' ownership had more money than we did, hence their ability to sign Richie in the first place. I know we got a good return on that trade with Arizona, but do you think we made that deal because we thought Richie sucked?

 

2. I'm trying to be realistic about this. I don't see Mark A. eating $25 million in salary over two bad starts to begin the 2009 season. Sheffield only had one year left on his deal, so it's not exactly comparable.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Certainly his starts have been a disappointment at this point. It is magnified since he has started 1/3 of our games so far. We went into our first two series with our 5-1-2 vs. the Giants 1-2-3 and our 3-4-5 vs. the Cubs 1-2-3. That didn't help either.

 

At this point the money is sunk, so it should be taken out of the equation. That is psychologically difficult to do, but he'll get paid whether he plays for us or not. The question going forward should be - is Suppan our best option as a fifth starter? I see no obvious change at this point. Until Suppan is either confirmed injured or demonstrates over 6-8 additional starts that he is flat out incapable of delivering a 5-6 inning start with at least a mid 5 ERA, he should stay. Our options are either McClung or DiFelice, neither of whom have proven they are that much better or our signees at Nashville who need the 6-8 starts to prove themselves as well.

 

It may not be pretty, but for now Soup will and probably should stay.

[DougJones43]

Can we please stop pretending that this issue is only about 1 or 2 starts? Do you really think people would be reacting the same way if Gallardo had turned in two similar performances to start the season?

 

For reference, Suppan regressed significantly in many areas in 2008 -- and here is a snapshot (per the JS) of his last eight starts dating back to last year:

 

Suppan's skid goes much further than his two starts this season, however. Going back to the beginning of last September and including the loss that eliminated the Brewers from the playoffs, the veteran right-hander is 0-6 with a 10.13 ERA in eight starts.

 

Over that span, Suppan has allowed 48 hits, including 12 home runs, and 20 walks in 32 innings.

[tristarscoop]

I'm not sure what putting him at the back end of the rotation accomplishes.

 

I have a theory that Macha, et al. know that we don't have a guy that can compete with most aces out there and therefore have loaded our rotation to put us in a situation to win against some of the lesser pitchers out there. It's clear that they aren't willing to put YoGa in the stressful ace role, so any arguments to that effect are out. If we can't out-pitch other staff's aces, why "waste" YoGa's stuff or Bush's consistency against them?

 

That's the short description, and maybe I'm giving the coaching staff too much credit, but it's a theory...

[strawbossisevil]

So we are looking at a small handful of starts from almost 7 months ago and using them to try to form an opinion of Suppan going forward?

 

Yes, he ended last year poorly. No one is arguing about that. He also did rather well in Spring Training, but let's not even consider that if it doesn't jive with your argument.

 

I think its rather poor when someone has to take a small sample of starts to try to prove their point (since all starters, especially bottom of the rotation starters have their good and bad stretches and Suppan happened to end on the later last year), and I think it is especially poor reasoning to go back to a small group of starts 7 months ago and try to draw conclusions from those limited amount of starts. There is a reason that they only include his last 6 starts of last season. It's because if you start going back further (aka, having a larger more projectable sample) his numbers begin to look a bit better.

[DougJones43]

I also pointed to the fact that his entire 2008 season was very sub-par as a whole, which seems to indicate a downward trend. And that trend appears to be continuing, and quite possibly getting worse.

 

The point is, stop classifying this issue as nothing more than an over-reaction to 1 or 2 starts, because it is much larger than that and you know it. I'm tired of legitimate discussions being marginalized by people who insist it's only about this season when it isn't.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...if you look at his season ERA from the past few years, it's gone up an average of .40 every year. He's declining rapidly, unfortunately, it seems.

[strawbossisevil]

And the fact that you started this thread after Suppan got shelled on opening day doesn't at all point to the fact that this thread was in fact, at least to some extent, an over-reaction. The fact that there was already a Suppan thread, but this one "just had to get started" after his initial poor start wouldn't at all suggest a knee jerk reaction (sarcasm).

 

I can almost guarantee you this thread doesn't get started if Suppan had given up two or three runs on opening day over 6. And just because you can parade a few starts from the close of last season doesn't it make it any more valid. When you look at the big picture (large sample), Suppan was last year, and will likely be this year again a guy who hovers from the mid fours to the low fives for ERA as he has done throughout his career.

 

Invader his rises in ERA can easily be explained. He went from the best IF defense in the league in St. Louis. To having Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder behind him. What results? A drop in ERA. The next year on top of the poor defense, he gets injured, resulting in another mediocre drop in ERA (look at some of the starts he had before he went on the DL to see just how much the injury effected him). Now age may be catching up to him a little bit (last year's injury could be a sign of that), but despite that if he stays healthy there is no reason to believe he couldn't repeat last year's final numbers. Suppan by all accounts has not suffered a drop in mph from last season which would set off the "old and washed up" warning sirens. My guess is these 8 starts that we are looking at (a small sample FWIW) are more a result of two things, 1) bad luck (which will happen for a low strike out pitcher who has lots of balls put into play) and 2) mental makeup (loosing his cool a bit, as in his last start with all of his walks).

 

The legitimate discussion of Suppan had been hashed and rehashed throughout the offseason. Starting a new thread on the topic that had been discussed frequently in another thread throughout the offseason after a stinker of a game only invites illegitimate posting, and knee jerk reactions (read through the pages of this discussion and you'll find plenty of that). What made this thread any more legitimate from the other thread(s) other than that you had one (now two) starts to hang your negative nelly hat on?

[theavrock]

I also pointed to the fact that his entire 2008 season was very sub-par as a whole, which seems to indicate a downward trend. And that trend appears to be continuing, and quite possibly getting worse.

 

The point is, stop classifying this issue as nothing more than an over-reaction to 1 or 2 starts, because it is much larger than that and you know it. I'm tired of legitimate discussions being marginalized by people who insist it's only about this season when it isn't.

 

Dude through Aug 30th Suppan had an ERA of 4.5 and had a record of 10-7. Had the season ended then would he have had a "very sub-par season as a whole?" Im guessing no. He had a junky September. For most of the season he was pretty average, not sub par.

[DougJones43]

And the fact that you started this thread after Suppan got shelled on opening day doesn't at all point to the fact that this thread was in fact, at least to some extent, an over-reaction. The fact that there was already a Suppan thread, but this one "just had to get started" after his initial poor start wouldn't at all suggest a knee jerk reaction (sarcasm).

 

Yes, Suppan's poor start on opening day tipped the scales for me in favor of starting this thread, but that certainly doesn't mean that what he did all of last year didn't come into consideration. And also, how can you consider the original premise of the thread to be an over-reaction when it was posed as a question? I didn't start a "DFA SUPPAN" thread. I posed a question, wanted to know how long of a leash posters thought he deserved -- after being a marginal pitcher the past couple years, falling apart at the end of last season, and now getting roughed up early this year.

 

If we're not going to call Suppan's status into question now, then when? You (and a handful of other posters) seem to think it's up to you to decide when is a "reasonable" time to discuss something. You should be the judge of when something is reactionary, and when it's legit. It's completely arrogant, and many people don't feel like waiting 'til you think it's acceptable to discuss something. I personally don't feel like staying silent until he's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he needs to be removed. Seems pretty pointless to have the discussion then, don't you think? Honestly, I don't see the point in a message board if you can't state opinions, or discuss anything that's not set in stone and/or already occurred. We may as well just post news stories and box scores if that's the case.

 

If your opinion is that he's a fine back-end starter the way he is, then just say that. I really wish people would just refrain from posting on issues if they have nothing to add other than just attacking or mocking the premise of what's being talked about.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Yankee fans are having this discussion with Wang. Wang has a worse ERA than Suppan does. So there is a silver lining after all with Suppan.

[DougJones43]

Had the season ended then would he have had a "very sub-par season as a whole?" Im guessing no.

 

The season didn't end then though. If you're going to pull out his worst month, you have to pull out everybody's, which would put you right back where you started...

 

Among 45 NL pitchers with at least 160 IP, Suppan was:

 

42nd/45 in ERA

42nd/45 in WHIP

42nd/45 in K/9

 

If that's not "very sub-par" then what is??

[trwi7]

BrewCrewBall: How bad is Jeff Suppan?

 

Certainly an interesting read.

[Fatter than Joey]

Call it what you like, but Suppan pitched better than Lincecum on OD.

 

I think this is a very subjective statement. Suppan gave up more runs, struck out less batters...

 

Of course it's a loaded statement, but so are the cries for Suppan to be stashed in the pen under Marcus Hanel's duffelbag (I exaggerate...)

 

At least, these posters even though they are extreme, are adding to the discussion in the framework requested. They believe that Suppan should have "no leash". Why is it so hard for you and strawboss to either not comment on this thread, or frame your response in the way the original poster asked? If you believe that Suppan should be able to pitch the entire season regardless of ERA -- then just say it without irrelevant, inaccurate and incomplete lectures on sample-size.

 

Point being that the (extreme) reactions by fans are more based on this being the first meaningful baseball played in ~6 mos. than on any actual demonstrable loss of skill by Soup.

 

There is certainly evidence to suggest that Suppan is eroding.

 

It´s probably likely that Suppan has an ERA somewhere in the area of 5 (perhaps a bit lower, perhaps a bit higher) at season end.

 

What do you want to Wager FTJ? I'm not one who gambles money, but I'm certainly up for a wager that involves a creative reward for the winner/punishment for the loser. Lay some ideas on me.

 

Based on the above statement -- I'd suggest a "loser leaves town" wager -- If Soup's ERA is under 5.15 at the end of the season, I will agree to not post here anymore -- likewise if it is over 5.15 you will agree to not post here.

 

This seems fair, as I have given you the "probably likely" range, and with the authoritative manner in which you present yourself in this thread, I would hope you wouldn't have a problem standing behind your words.

[valpocrewsader]

Sunday's game was ugly, but it was something of a perfect storm for Suppan -- facing a deadly lineup with an umpire that has a microscopic strikezone. Supp hit some great spots down in the zone and on the black, but for this particular outing they were not called strikes. As has been mentioned, Suppan's "stuff" pretty much stinks, so it became pick your poison between walking guys with close pitches or serving up very hittable pitches against a lineup where even the weakest links (Theriot, Fontenot) are raking so far this year.

 

I'm not giving him a total pass, because it's certainly a problem if your "stuff" stinks, but had this been against the Pirates with a different ump this last outing might've been 7 IP, 1 BB, 0 ER. True, Dempster had the same ump to work with, but as I watched the game it sure seemed like he got calls Supp didn't and/or the Brewers hitters were less patient at laying off the close ones.

 

I want to join the hate parade on Suppan, but I'm holding back for now....

[kramnoj]

Among 45 NL pitchers with at least 160 IP, Suppan was:

 

42nd/45 in ERA

42nd/45 in WHIP

42nd/45 in K/9

 

If that's not "very sub-par" then what is??

 

There are 16 teams in the NL. If Suppan is the 42nd best SP in the NL, then he is a #3 starter on an average NL team. That seems perfectly par to me.