How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[TheCrew07]

There is tons of proof in various studies that are easily accessible around the web regarding the impact of weight on sports performance and health.

 

Just because sabermetrics hasn't directly addressed an issue doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

[DougJones43]

So what you are saying is your statement that "Prince was too fat last year. He must have even thought so himself, because he worked all off-season to slim down." could be wrong?

 

Not really. If he (or the team) thought that his weight wasn't an issue last season, why did he work so hard to lose a bunch of weight?

 

Listen, I think I can see what's happening here. You're getting so caught up in the semantics of the argument, and whether or not we can "prove" exactly how Prince's weight affected his performance, that you are missing the bigger picture.

 

The point is, carrying significant extra weight is generally bad for a player's performance. Prince was overweight last season. It is extremely likely therefore, that his weight prevented him from playing as good as he could have (not saying he was bad). As fans, it is within reason to expect a player to be in good shape, as being out of shape can, and often does, hinder player performance. Prince had kind of a down year -- and it is not at all unreasonable to correlate that with his weight, even though it can't be proven for certain exactly how much.

 

I really don't know how to say it anymore clearly, although I have a feeling you will continue to fight me tooth and nail on some portion of the semantics, as you often do on these boards.

[Fatter than Joey]

He quite obviously was trying to pull everything for a HR to start the season if you watched the games, he admits he was trying to hit 50 HR in april,

 

I am sure it is easier for Prince to admit overswinging, than it is to admit to being overweight. I can entirely sympathize with that.

 

Do you honestly think that going from 280 to 290 is going to completely destroy a players production?

 

If that 10 lbs is pure fat, -- absolutely. I probably wouldn't use the term "completely destroy" -- but if your swing is off just a tad, yeah, that is going to affect your ability to hit a 90mph object.

 

If the weight were the problem he'd either just suck all year or he'd have extra problems as the season went on and he wore out faster than he should.

 

I am a fat guy. When I go to the gym and play basketball, you are correct that I wear down faster than the people I play with -- but it also takes me a lot longer to get my big ass moving at "top speed" as well also. I think it should not defy common sense, that an out of shape or overweight person, is going to struggle more starting up than his peers, as well as tire out faster.

 

I certainly think that people overstate the impact of Prince's weight issues, but I think it is fair to think he is leaving some OPS points on the table as well.

[Ennder]

There is tons of proof in various studies that are easily accessible around the web regarding the impact of weight on sports performance and health.

 

Just because sabermetrics hasn't directly addressed an issue doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

Of course in many cases a loss in weight doesn't help a baseball player at all.

 

http://www.rotoauthority..../01/follow-up-sprin.html

 

The majority of players who lost weight going into last season actually lowered their production. The guys at BPro also haven't found any proof that weight loss actually helps and have noticed many times it hurts a player. In the short term you take a hit to your power which drops your OPS. It is much more important in the long term.

 

I know it is easier to blame his weight or his diet for a dip in production but the fact is player stats jump all over the place every single year and most of the time it is just random hot and cold streaks and there isn't something to blame. Fielder should be expected to hit around 40 HRs a year probably and last year a slow start and no really big hot streak made him fall short, I really don't think the weight had anything to do with it. Its possible that it did but it is nowhere near a given.

[Baldkin]

You can't compare different types of weightloss to one another.

 

Losing a ton of fat weight is more than likely going to help a player, where as going off of steroids and losing 20lbs of muscle is going to hurt someone.

[TheCrew07]

You can't be serious Endder... a single study about baseball players who claimed to lose weight vs scientific study done by actual... you know... scientists? Baldkin nailed it, all weight loss is not equal, and weight loss supplements are particularly troublesome because side effects aside, they also burn a significant percentage of muscle away with the fat.

 

Anyone who followed Nelson's career knows that the first time he lost his weight he actually played worse.

 

Issues with Supplements

 

Very good summary of weight gain

The lean body mass is the weight of the musculoskeletal structure; the total mass of an individual less the amount of body fat provides the total musculoskeletal weight. Body fat has been the subject of considerable scientific study. It is generally the fat, stored in the form of triglycerides, that is contained within the specialized adipose tissues of the body; excess fat is simply mass that creates an additional physical demand on the body in the course of athletic performance; leaner bodies tend to be more efficient. The best assessment as to the impact of body fat on performance is to determine the percentage of body fat.

It's very reasonable to assume that Prince's weight gain negatively impacted his play, especially as he regressed in both aspects of the game. No one is saying he stunk, it's reasonable to assume that because of his weight gain he didn't make as many plays as he otherwise could have. That's all.

[Ennder]

You can't be serious Endder... a single study about baseball players who claimed to lose weight vs scientific study done by actual... you know... scientists?

 

Show me a scientific study about weight loss and its effect on power in baseball, oh yeah you can't because you don't have one. I'm sure according to you linemen should drop 100 pounds in football and they could block better and fighters should drop weight because they would hit harder. Fielder needs to lose weight for his long term health, not because it caused short term production losses. If he stays this heavy he will have health issues at a young age and his career will go south prematurely.

 

Fielders K rate and BB rate did not significantly change last year, his BABIP was acutally higher than the previous year. His fielding was statistically right in line with 2007 as well. The biggest difference between his 2007 and 2008 seasons was a large drop in ISO. So he gained weight and lost power but it didn't affect anything else is what you are saying and it only really hurt his ISO for the first 2 months and then magically it stopped bothering him? I'm the one being unscientific here?

 

Yeah whatever. It isn't worth arguing because you've already made up your mind and I'm sure if Fielder goes out and hits 45 HRs we'll get a bunch of I told you so the weight loss helped him type statements even though it most likely was just fluctuations you see every single year in baseball. Weeks ISO dropped a lot too, did he put on a bunch weight last year and I missed it?

 

Oh yeah btw, in 2007 Fielder had 12 just enough HRs and 11 no doubters. In 2008 he had 6 just enoughs and 11 no doubters. In 2007 he had 2 insanely hot streaks, in 2008 he really had none. Those are your scientific reasons for the HR drop most likely, just how baseball is and why players don't put up the same stats every single season.

[DougJones43]

So, is there any circumstance in which you would admit that excess weight hinders the performance of a player? I guess if you really wanted to, you could point to the "fluctuations happen in baseball" argument no matter how obese somebody is. At some point, you're just being stubborn and not being realistic about balance, timing, agility, and the human body.

 

What if Fielder played this season at 350 lbs? Would you be okay with that? What about 450 lbs? I guess that would be totally fine, because we would still have no exact statistical way to pinpoint how it was affecting his hitting and fielding.

[Never Outhustled]

players don't put up the same stats every single season.

 

Thats very true, they don't. Some of the main reasons for that are injuries and conditioning. You show me a player that shows up for the season grossly overweight, and all to often I'll show you a guy about to have a down year.

[TheCrew07]

Show me a scientific study about weight loss and its effect on power in baseball, oh yeah you can't because you don't have one. I'm sure according to you linemen should drop 100 pounds in football and they could block better and fighters should drop weight because they would hit harder. Fielder needs to lose weight for his long term health, not because it caused short term production losses. If he stays this heavy he will have health issues at a young age and his career will go south prematurely.

What? You're way out of your league here... you obviously didn't read the link and just chose to comment on it. It's simply physics, like sophomore year of high school physics... the more mass that needs to be moved, the greater the force necessary to get the work done. Very simple. As far as NFL lineman go, it's about having a frame and enough strength to handle the weight... Prince doesn't have the frame nor the strength to support a "nimble" 300 lbs... nice job pulling a tangent out of left field that doesn't even apply. We're talking about Optimal weight ranges, and while Fielder's optimal weight will be higher than average, there's no way that someone his height has an optimal weight of 285 pounds. Optimal weight + strength = conditions for Peak Performance.

 

Find you one study? Have you thought this all the way through? Every study done about the human body relates to baseball, there's no difference in fast twitch muscles groups between any sport, riding a bike, etc. It's all the same. Again if the player used a dietary supplement to lose the weight he sapped his strength, which was more important that the weight in the first place. The burden on proof is actually on you to prove that obesity doesn't have a negative impact on athletic performance, the scientific and medical communities have come to very consistent conclusions on the matter. It's not my responsibility to educate you, though you clearly need it, if you were interested in the truth you would simply google, "obesity", "diet supplements", "peak performance training", and so on. The article I linked is a good base of knowledge an is a terrific starting point... if that's too much work and live in the Milwaukee area Mr. Arnett of NX Level is an expert on enhancing althetic performance and I just recently listened to another of his presentations at the clinic 2 weeks ago. If you're children are interested in sports and you have the disposable income it's worth checking out, he'll make them better athletes and better people.

 

I'm just a lowly high school football coach, but I have 14 years of experience now coaching and educating myself on these issues. Not because I'm a great person or anything, but because my father is, and when he pushes information my way I'd be a fool not absorb as much of it as possible. Have you ever attended a single clinic, presentation, training seminar, anything? What makes you more qualified than the numerous experts that have published opinions that can be freely viewed on the web or I've heard speak in person? I'm curious, you've never mentioned your background? I've never heard anyone with even a semi educated opinion on this subject make the assertions that you have.

 

It's impossible to have an intelligent discussion about peak performance when there's no sharing of ideas, all you've done is draw a line in the sand and say it's not true because it can't be proven. Well the effect of attitude on performance is extremely difficult to prove yet any player that's had success at the professional or collegiate level will say it's what separates one player from of similar talent from another. Yep there's no statistic in any sport that proves it makes a difference, and only misguided attempts to quantify it, so it doesn't exist. Maybe someday you'll see that the very metrics you champion aren't "proof" of anything either, they are a mathematical represtantion of one person's opinion on how to best quantify a given value.

 

Sports, any game, is like art... beauty is in the eye of the beholder. It's a 1000 little things coming together to create drama and those moments that we'll remember for a lifetime. With such a narrow statistical view of baseball, I can't help but wonder if you able to appreciate the beauty in the game? The chess game between pitcher/catcher vs the batter, a fielder seeing the pitch location and the swing reacting appropriately before the ball even leaves the bat, experiencing the "zone" where there's no sound and everything in happens in slow motion... there's so much more out there to appreciate than statistical greatness, I sincerely hope you're not missing it.

 

A final note, the "study" that you reference and I took the time to read, wasn't scientific in nature, nor are sabermetrics in general. The conclusions cannot be proven because the environment is not controlable and the data is incomplete. There is a wide gulf between scientific study and sabermetrics, in truth sabermetrics is just applied algebra and probability. It's taking events with an infinite number of variables, some which are impossible to quanitfy, dumbing it down to the point it's quantifyable, and trying to come up with a meaningful result. I don't mean to diminish their value, they are a great tools, it's just sometimes their place in baseball is overstated. What does the creator of PAP truly know of human anatomy, injury prevention, injury rehabilition, strength training, flexibility, conditioning, and ergonomic principles yet I've seen people champion the metric though it's not based on anything more than the idea that pitchers get hurt the more innings they pitch... shocking insight there. A little bit of cynacism when it comes to these metrics is a healthy thing.

[PeaveyFury]

Lots of condescension in this thread... tone it down, please.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I thought this thread was about Suppan anyway, not Prince or whomever...

 

Speaking of Suppan, I hope he comes in and has a solid outing tomorrow. It would feel really good to take the series tomororw night, to make up for losing today in such close fashion.

[Ennder]

A final note, the "study" that you reference and I took the time to read, wasn't scientific in nature

 

I didn't reference a study, I posted a link to an article that suggest falacies in spring training cliches. You never referenced a study either though, that is my point. You referenced a generic comment on weight and athletics that had nothing at all to do with baseball or with power.

 

So, is there any circumstance in which you would admit that excess weight hinders the performance of a player?

 

Sure, if a player gained a ton of weight and it hurt him more than just HR hitting or if his stats suffered the entire year instead of just the first month and a half I could see it. There is nothing in Fielders stats that really suggests weight or diet preference had anything to do with his stats. My problem is really people saying that it is fact that his weight caused his power outage when there really is no proof at all that it is true. He lost a few HR, people looked for a reason why, they pointed at his weight and diet with no real proof behind it. Just seems much more likely to be random variation than anything else since like 20% of all baseball players fluctuate wildly year to year each season.

 

If I have to rank why Fielder had an 'off year' I'd put it this way.

 

1) Random fluctuation of hot/cold streaks

2) Sophomore slump caused by trying to do too much (I know he's not technically a sophomore)

3) weather/offense being down/tougher pitchers faced than previous year etc.

4) Pissed about his contract status

5) Weight gain

6) Diet change

 

As for Suppan I have been playing along with our season in DMB and after tomorrows game we are 4-2 and Suppan went 7 IP with 2 ER and we won the game including back to back HR by Braun and Fielder and a solo HR by Cameron later. So I'm confident!

[Ennder]

You can start the leash now, game is still going on but Suppan was just not throwing strikes.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

You can start the leash now, game is still going on but Suppan was just not throwing strikes.

How long can this team go with Suppan? He can't even throw strikes with the bases loaded.

 

This team is going to shoot itself in the own foot if they continue to with Soup. I don't believe McClung can't be a better option at this point.

[DougJones43]

6 BB in 3.2 innings? Absolutely brutal. If Suppan can't throw strikes, he's completely useless, and the team simply can't afford to let him even make the ten starts I originally stated.

 

One or two more starts like this, and he needs to be replaced.

[GB12]

No leash at all. He should have been taken out of the rotation early last year. At the very least he should be moved to 5th in the rotation, but McClung should be starting over him.

[Ennder]

If we have to replace Suppan we should go with our best starter to replace him, so DiFelice.

[kramnoj]

He should have been taken out of the rotation early last year.

 

When should he have been taken out last year? Suppan's biggest problem is that he has so little (maybe zero) margin of error. There are days where he is just going to get blown out. But there were plenty of games last year where Suppan was a good enough pitcher to help his team win.

[bobbledude25]

It's all about salary with Supe. If it wasn't about salary and based on performance, I would cut him after this game

[davego]

I'll go out on a limb and say his next start might be sort of big for his rotation status.

[braunforpres]

How many of you guys think that with Macha - the leash will be literally one more start like he had in SF or this evening? Is that realistic? I like how Macha has tried new things and been pretty good with the hook so far... but its a high priced vet. I personally want to throw up when Suppan does what he did tonight....

[clancyphile]

How has Dillard been doing in Nashville? Might he be an option? Or how about calling Chris Cody up? Is the starting pitching cupboard that bare?? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

How many of you guys think that with Macha - the leash will be literally one more start like he had in SF or this evening? Is that realistic?

 

No, I think Suppan gets at least 5 more starts. McClung and DeeFeliz are not much better options. I'd rather see DiFilease get the nod instead of McClung, but he isn't terribly exciting either.

 

If Suppan was throwing 95mph, but just missing his spots, I suppose one could be a little more optimistic, Suppan looks done.

[Never Outhustled]

How has Dillard been doing in Nashville?

He makes his 1st start tomorrow.

 

Or how about calling Chris Cody up?

You mean the guy that got knocked around in the Hawaii Winter League filled with A-ball players? Lets let him make a few starts at AA 1st.