How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[Thurston Fluff]

If we rate him as the fifth starter not on his contract what we have is a guy who will give you 30+ starts, eat up 175+ innings, have 10ish wins and an ERA around 5. Seems to me back end of the rotation guys are at the back end of the rotation because they cannot deliver half of that. I think a lot of teams would love to have a 5th starter do three of those four things. Some teams who are in position to win but need that fifth starter would even be willing to overpay for that type of production. When he got the contract I think the Brewers were one of those teams. I have no proof of this but I do think Melvin knew by the end of the contract that Soup wouldn't be worth the money but would still have value. In that respect he is right.

He may be getting paid to be more than a fifth but if the discussion is when Macha replaces him it would be hard to find someone else who could do what he can as a fifth starter.

[Roscoe Chill]

The problem is, he's not a fifth starter, he's the #1 starter right? Or did I miss the first four Brewer games? Anyway, if what Macha is doing (and what I really hope is the rationale) is "sacrificing" Suppan in the #1 slot, then fine. But as FTJ really pointed out, had the Brewers gone with Gallardo yesterday, I doubt they lose...and if they still do, well, then we're in for a long season to make a long story short.

 

And really, don't come back with "this was only one game." Why do you think we're even discussing this? Why was the thread started? Because of yesterday's game? Come on.

[fondybrewfan]

What if Jeffress goes berzerk in AA and he is due for a quick promotion. Could that possibly expedite Suppan's move to the bullpen. I am by no means advocating moving Jeffress up quickly but the jump from AA to the MLB isn't exactly unheard of.

 

I am guessing the unless Suppan has like a 6 ERA he will be in the rotation the entire year. I just hope that he would be skipped whenever possible. McClung isn't a viable alternative IMO. Maybe DeFelice could be effective in a starting role but I don't think I would trust anyone at AAA.

[Roscoe Chill]

Yes, I will have to say that there really isn't anyone out there who screams 'better alternative.' It's just that people forget about the six starts in September last year (including the playoffs) where he never made it through the 6th, and only gave up less than 4 runs once.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think most people are just not going to trust 6 or 7 starts over his career body of work

[GormanHarvey]

I am somewhat surprised at how quickly people can turn on a player or forget what they are capable of. By reading this thread you would think McClung is absolutely useless and that he didn't pitch extremely well for the Brewers late down the stretch last year. Did he pitch well yesterday? No. Does that mean he's terrible? NO. He looked uncomfortable and we all know that Seth can get a bit amped up and emotional at times. It was opening day in less than ideal conditions. Not excusing the way he pitched or the fact that we walked in a run on 4 pitches. Just saying that I don't think yesterday is indicitive of what he is capable of or how he will pitch this season. By no means is he Greg Maddux control wise, but I think he could be more than serviceable as a starter if need be. Unless something really drastic happens I expect Suppan to be in the rotation til at least the break, but I wouldn't hesitate to replace him with McClung at that point is Soup is ineffective. Once Seth gets a feel for his curve ball or slider (whatever you want to call it) he can be very effective. He was absolutely dominant against the Cubs last sept iirc. His command is better than what he showed yesterday and he has 2 above average pitches. Let's not go overboard on writing him off because he didn't pitch well yesterday. Really nobody did. I don't think everyone suddenly forgot how to pitch. Same goes for Soup. Just one of those days...

[endaround]

McClung and Coffey are both pitchers who were hot in September but neither are very good. McClung's BB/9 was 4.70 last year. That stinks. I don't think McClung forgot how to pitch, he never has pitched that well.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Is it just me or did McClung seem more effective as a starter than a reliever last year once he got by the first few starts. He seems to throw better when his velocity is a little lower and he can settle in with control. He was up in that mid-high 90s range yesterday and got lit up. He was probably amp'd up since it was Opening Day. I hope he can settle down and pitch in the low-90s with control. I believe he's more effective there.

 

So maybe the key on Suppan isn't to get his ERA (rough proxy to other metrics, I agree) to below 5, it's that the other 4 starters pitch well enough to make Soup the obvious 5th starter. If Yo is in the low 3's, Parra high 3's to 4, Bush & Looper low 4's and Soup 5ish...that would be a solid enough staff to push for a playoff spot. If Soup is truly healthy and we give a mulligan to yesterday...his target is among the more probable and attainable of that group.

[Invader3K]

I heard someone on the radio today describe Suppan perfectly (may have been Tom Haudricourt, I'm not totally sure), in my opinion. He basically said Suppan has gotten to the point where he has no room for error with his pitches. If he makes a mistake, it doesn't get fouled off or popped up. It gets crushed, more often than not. That's kind of scary to think about, but he's sure seemed that way yesterday, and for much of last year.

[endaround]

McClung's batting line against gives a good idea of the story:

 

As a starter:.248/.342/.393

As a reliever: .235/.346/.336

 

AS you can see McClung walked more as reliever but gave up more home runs as a starter. The OBP against is bad in either case because he walks so many. There's little there to say either role stands out.

[markedman5]

"Unless theres something like a significant loss of velocity Suppan might as well pitch. "

 

I think the only way Soup could have a significant drop in velocity is if he starts throwing it underhand so I guess he will be pitching..................

[bjkrautk]

After one start, one strikeout in 4 IP bothers me most. 6 ER on 6 hits (9 baserunners total, with a double-play negating one of them) at looks like bad luck in isolation. That every other Brewers pitcher got tagged for an earned run (2 of the 3 relievers also gave up a HR) supports the bad luck idea.

 

While he's not a power pitcher, and his K/9 IP rate was never particularly great, it has generally trended down over the last 3-4 seasons. If missing fewer bats is an indicator of his 'stuff' / deception, then it turns into a question of how long he will remain an effective starting pitcher.

 

I say he gets at least 5-6 more starts before Macha has to give the "vote of confidence," and no move will be made with the rotation until after 10 starts.

[Mr QL]

I don't understand the whole "we're paying him alot of money so we have to play him even if there are better options". I'd rather we just cut losses with Soup. Give a young guy a chance, can't be any worse.

[bjkrautk]

I don't understand the whole "we're paying him alot of money so we have to play him even if there are better options". I'd rather we just cut losses with Soup. Give a young guy a chance, can't be any worse.

The 2006 Brewers (ZacJac, CV, Eveland, Hendrickson, Helling, Gonzales all started games when Sheets & Ohka went down) would like to get a word in edgewise.

[giffted1]

McClung's batting line against gives a good idea of the story:

 

As a starter:.248/.342/.393

As a reliever: .235/.346/.336

But compared to Suppan's batting line against we see why McClung might be a better option than Suppan.

 

Last year: .298/.361/.483

Career: .281/.341/.451

 

McClung walks a lot of guys but still doesn't get shelled like Suppan.

[GormanHarvey]

McClung's batting line against gives a good idea of the story:

 

As a starter:.248/.342/.393

As a reliever: .235/.346/.336

But compared to Suppan's batting line against we see why McClung might be a better option than Suppan.

 

Last year: .298/.361/.483

Career: .281/.341/.451

 

McClung walks a lot of guys but still doesn't get shelled like Suppan.

Exactly. And I don't think we have seen McClung's best yet. His command seemed to improve as the year went on last year

[Fatter than Joey]

Give a young guy a chance, can't be any worse.

 

I am not a Suppan fan -- but it certainly can get a lot worse than Suppan.

[jeffy]

I also think no base should be awarded if the ball is clearly over the plate and the hitter leans into it.

 

Well that is the rule (as written, not as enforced), you are supposed to be required to attempted to get out of the way, if it is possible to do so, and if it is a strike, it is a strike and you do not get 1st. I don't think I have never seen an umpire actually not give a base because the batter did not try to get out of the way. I seem to recall a strike being called once last season when batter was hit by a pitcher on the brewers??? If I am recalling that correctly, I am pretty sure that was the first time I had ever seen that call made. Usually you only would see a strike called on a HBP when the batter swings.

[endaround]

McClung was better than Suppan last year, sure. But there is nothing to expect that to continue. Again if there is something physically off about Suppan it might make sense but they project to be about the same pitcher if both start.

[rluzinski]

Suppan's projections suggest that he is about a 5.0 ERA pitcher at this point in his career and I think that still makes him the 5th best available starter. McClung did some good things for the Brewers last year but I'm not ready to assume he's finally figured things out, especially with regard to the walks.

 

If he has a 5.2 ERA after 10 starts, there is almost no chance he gets pulled. I'd say 15 starts and an ERA over 6 is what it would take. And if his secondary stats suggest he's earned that 6+ ERA, I'd agree with the move.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm going to say Suppan has a similar season to Glendon Rusch's 2003:

 

1-12 6.42 ERA, 1.751 WHIP

 

Rusch got 19 starts on a horrible team. This year's team should be much better, so there should be increased pressure to stop running Suppan out there, but I think it will be counteracted a bit by what they are paying him. I'm going to say Suppan gets 9 starts before he gets "hurt".

[GormanHarvey]

If Suppan pitches as poorly as many people expect him to, I honestly think Macha's proactive approach to managing coupled with his intolerance to lack of production could lead to a quicker hook for him than we may think. I agree that our other options are marginal, but I don't see Macha just sitting there and watching Soup go out there and getting his brains bashed in time and time again, if that indeed is the case.

[rluzinski]

What constitutes a pitcher getting his brains bashed in? 6 ERA? 7 ERA? Projecting Suppan to have an ERA over 6 is pretty silly IMO. It's not like he's showing signs of being hurt. He's just a recently average pitcher on the down slope of his career.

[GormanHarvey]

What constitutes a pitcher getting his brains bashed in? 6 ERA? 7 ERA? Projecting Suppan to have an ERA over 6 is pretty silly IMO. It's not like he's showing signs of being hurt. He's just a recently average pitcher on the down slope of his career.

I guess I'm not going to throw out numbers here because no matter what I say it will be taken apart. If he isn't giving the team a chance to win on a regular basis would be enough for me to try other options

[tigerbrew]

I'm trying to figure out what the threshold should be for Suppan this year, before a move to long-relief should be strongly considered. I realize he's going to get much more slack than most guys because of his contract, but if he makes it to start #10 or so, and has an ERA above 5.00, at that point I really think the team has to try somebody else.

 

So, that's my cutoff -- an ERA over 5.00 after 10 starts, and I think it's time to pull the plug.

I guess my threshold for Suppan is a lot less than yours, to me a 5+ ERA after 5 starts is enough to demote Suppan to the bullpen. I hope the Brewers give Suppan a short leash.