How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[theavrock]

Couldn't agree more. He gave up four hits and four runs over six while walking four. Obviously the walk total is still high and thats why even though he only gave up four hits those four hits hurt. If he can keep going six innings and four or fewer earned runs he will be in the rotation the entire season.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Suppan pitched terribly last night. That strike zone was huge. Both strikeouts of Carlos Lee were giftwrapped by Blue behind the plate.

 

Even with a strikezone that went from the armpits to mid-shin, and 3 inches off both corners, Supp still managed to walk 4 guys and fall behind several others.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, the ump seemed to have it in for the Astros last night for some reason...but I don't see how you can hold that against Suppan. He exploited it to his advantage.

[silversurferr]

At the break, if the Brews are still in the race and make a move for a pitcher, Suppan becomes the sixth starter and long relief mop-up guy. He is horrible.

[rluzinski]

I'd love to replace half the current starters with better players. You have to find the better players first, however. Maybe DeFelice is marginally better but I 'm not so sure. I think the Crew will have to acquire an arm to have a good option over Suppan. And even then, as the #6 pitcher, Suppan would be almost guaranteed to get a bunch of starts.

[strawbossisevil]

It should be mentioned that only three of the four runs were earned. 3 earned runs in 6 innings is probably about all you can ask from any team´s 5th starter.

[DougJones43]

Another very nice outing by Suppan tonight. No walks in 6.1 innings is very encouraging. His overall ERA is still up near 6.00, but these last few starts have gone a long way toward giving me more confidence than I had in him to start the season.

[mls4]

Not saying that Suppan is anything great, but this topic should finally be over and done with, in my opinion.

[Ennder]

A 5.88 ERA is still pretty worrisome so not sure I'd say it is over and done with. What I'm interested in seeing is what happens the next time we get an ump with a small strike zone with Suppan on the mound, can he adjust to it or does being forced to come into the zone mean a terrible start every time for him.

[fondybrewfan]

Well he does have his ERA under 6 now. Perhaps the thread should be retitled "How long of a leash would you give Parra?" It is a big game for him tommorrow, the Brewers are cruising last night and another bad outing by Parra would be pretty deflating IMO.

 

This has been the story of Suppan's career with the Brewers. He can be so inconsistent despite being in the league for 80 years. I an ot expecting this out of him every time but is it too much to ask for a 4.5 ERA or so?

[rluzinski]

If you can get a 4.5 ERA from your #5 starting pitcher, you probably have the best staff in the league. If Suppan can end with even a 5.0 ERA this year, I'd be very happy.

 

As for Parra, he isn't going anywhere, so tomorrow's game hold's no real importance, IMO.

[strawbossisevil]

Suppan´s ERA in his first two starts: 12.91

Suppan´s ERA in his next three starts: 2.95

 

Suppan is not nearly as bad as his first two starts, and they seriously skew his numbers in an unfavorable way. He is in no way as good as his last three starts either. Once again, his true talent probably lies in the high 4s or low 5s ERA wise. And as the sample grows larger, that is probably where his overall numbers will settle.

 

This is why I and a few others were encouraging others not to be jumping off of bridges or talking about DFAing Suppan after the second start of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's pretty safe to say that Soup's career numbers tell us what to reasonably expect. He made a bad start or two, and they happened to come at the season's beginning. I really don't see anything more than people overreacting due to the timing. He's not great, nor has he ever been. But imo he's a fine back of the rotation option.

[And That]

For comparison, so far this season:

 

Suppan: 1.46 WHIP, 5.9 K/9

Looper: 1.50 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

 

In other words, I think both mens' ERAs are going to gravitate towards the middle.

[JoeHova]

I have to be fair, I bashed Suppan for his start to the season, so I have to give him credit for pitching better during his last few outings. I was worried he was totally washed up but now it looks like he's probably just his normal self. I still want him gone if at all possible, unfortunately I'm sure it isn't possible.

[rluzinski]

Short of an injury, players generally don't just fall apart for no reason. Their skills slowly build up and then slowly erode. Suppan has lost 1 MPH since leaving the Cardinals, so he's going to be hurt by that. He's also a couple years olderl, so that may effect other parts of his game as well (accuracy, pitch movement). Still, if he was a 4.5 ERA pitcher then, he's maybe a 5.00 ERA pitcher now. We shouldn't expect him to be a 7.0 ERA pitcher now, based on a handful of starts.

[strawbossisevil]

Nice post Russ, this has been what I have been pointing to throughout this entire thread. There is no reason for some huge drop off from the guy as so many on here were predicting.

 

I may not have taken FTJ´s bet, but I am still very confident that we´ll Suppan hovering right around 5 (perhaps a bit more, perhaps a bit less) by the end of the season.

 

I think many people let the dollar signs get in the way of them objectively assessing Suppan´s ability (that he is a very solid #5 pitcher).

 

As for those who are saying they are waiting to see how he does with a tight zone. I would imagine that any pitcher would put up below average numbers when the zone is tight. For a guy who has an ERA around 5, that may mean putting up numbers that are very below average. For a top of the rotation pitcher, that may mean having results of a mid to bottom of the rotation pitcher. I think it is pretty fair to say that no matter who the pitcher, the tighter the zone, the higher their ERA will go. It´s just the "higher" for a guy like Suppan is worse than a guy like Gallardo in most cases.

[JoeHova]

Pitchers have bad years all the time. Suppan is 34. His 2008 was below replacement level. Nobody was predicting a 12 ERA for the whole season. Not even Roy Halladay in 2000 was able to pull that off. Suppan's FIP was 5.51 last season. I still think an ERA near 6 is plausible and I still dislike Suppan's presence on the team. If Suppan is a true talent 5 ERA guy, is it that unreasonable to think he could have a season of a 6 ERA if his control is a bit off because of aging?

[TheCrew07]

If Soup can limit the BBs he'll be respectable, if not he'll have a long season. Yesterday I thought he left a ton of pitches up in the zone but for whatever reason the batters swung right through them. I'm not sure if he was just fortunate or caught them looking for something else but it worked out. He limited his BBs and XBHs and put up a solid performance, I won't take that away from him.

[hauser42]

Suppan is doing what he was brought in to do. Go out and pitch every 5th day and give the team close to 6 innings. Some days will be better than others.

 

Suppan and Cameron are whipping boys for their salaries. Coming into this offseason, I dont think anyone would have thought you could have signed Looper or Garland for how cheap they signed for. This is the only reason that Suppan is over paid as the market came back to reality for one offseason. Cameron is showing that he is well worth his salary so far, but I dont see his average staying this high all year.

[TheCrew07]

Interesting Analysis

 

Edit: Per a request in the comments, Suppan has induced only one swing and a miss on a fastball this year in five starts.

That last tidbit was surprising

[Never Outhustled]

Edit: Per a request in the comments, Suppan has induced only one swing and a miss on a fastball this year in five starts.

Yeah, thats amazingly scary. I really hope at the deadline after the Brewers aquire a frontline stud, we can find a sucker to take Suppan like San Fran did a few years ago when they dealt Matt Morris to Pittsburg with a year left on his deal.

[hurricanecrush]

It's May 16th and Soup has his ERA down to 4.63 and his WHIP to 1.43; his career numbers are 4.65 and 1.44.

 

Who would've thunk it.

[strawbossisevil]

It´s what I was saying all along in this thread. He´s going to have his ups and his downs over the course of the year, but he´s likely to have an ERA that falls somewhere between 4.75 and 5.25.

 

It´s really nice to see this thread brought up again to show just how much of an overreaction it was (as were many of the other early season threads).

[dadofandrew]

Small sample overreaction is indeed quite funny.

 

Thank goodness Doug is in charge, and not a "sky is falling", shortsighted fella.