How long of a leash would you give Suppan?

[DougJones43]

I'm trying to figure out what the threshold should be for Suppan this year, before a move to long-relief should be strongly considered. I realize he's going to get much more slack than most guys because of his contract, but if he makes it to start #10 or so, and has an ERA above 5.00, at that point I really think the team has to try somebody else.

 

Of course, this all depends on the health of the rest of the starting rotation, but if Gallardo/Parra/Bush/Looper stay healthy, I think that 5th spot should be used on of the younger guys with more upside -- guys that can potentially get a few strikeouts. Suppan has not really even done a good job of eating up innings the past year, which is supposed to be his big selling point.

 

So, that's my cutoff -- an ERA over 5.00 after 10 starts, and I think it's time to pull the plug.

[GormanHarvey]

That's probably longer than most of the responses you will get on here DJ. I will say this. I'm an optimist and I am not going to put too much stock in todays start given the conditions, the are we, aren't we gonna play, and the fact that many top of the rotation pitchers have been knocked around these first couple days of the season. I'm not going to give up hope on Soup just yet, but today did not make me feel any better about him. The guy just really, really needs to concentrate and bear down in big spots during the game and make the pitch he needs to make as opposed to serving up meatballs at the most inopportune times. Please Jeff, reward my unfounded faith in you!

[RockCoCougars]

My guess is that he gets "injured" again, a-la last year, in mid May or so. I'm sure it will be something that's "been bothering him since spring training".

[RightFieldCoder]

The first hit should have been an out if Hall hadn't been so far off the line. The second hit occurred because of a perfect hit and run. The first HBP was only because the shirt was too big. The pitcher did a perfect fake bunt/slash play. The ump made some tight calls of the strike zone.

 

And all of this occurred on the first day of the year when the pitchers aren't stretched out and the weather was bad. I'm not going to put too much stock into it.

[trwi7]

I would say mid May at the latest. So maybe 7 or 8 starts.

[endaround]

Its not like the Brewers have a ton of other options. McClung isn't any better. DiFelice isn't going to get the opportunity. Capuano suffered a set back. Unless Wright or Green break out, Suppan is all there is until a possible midseason move. And even then there is likely to be at least some minor injury to someone else requiring him to start. Suppan is going to pitch 160-180 innings this year barring a significant injury.

 

As to Hall being off the line, I didn't see that play but its important to remember defensive positioning is based upon the pitcher pitching a hitter a certain way. If the pitcher misses his spots the defense will be out of position.

[DougJones43]

McClung isn't any better.

 

How can you be so sure about that? McClung pitched 105 innings last season, and was actually quite a bit better than Suppan.

 

 <span style="text-decoration:underline">ERA</span> <span style="text-decoration:underline">WHIP</span> <span style="text-decoration:underline">K/9</span> Suppan 4.96 1.54 4.56 McClung 4.02 1.41 7.43 

[Ennder]

Robin19 pretty much nailed it, Suppan did not pitch anywhere near as bad as the numbers suggest today. Couple weak hits early with a really questionable HBP and then a hard hit triple. Later in the game he had an easy K where the ump didn't call the strike followed by a HR and then the whole lincecum chopper to set up more runs. The thing with Suppan is that he lets a lot of ball be put in play and when he makes a mistake it usually goes over the wall so he is really at the whim of BABIP more than most starters, a couple lucky hits leads to a terrible game for him and that is what seems to have happened today. Overall he threw the ball pretty well.

 

That isn't an excuse for him ind you, the fact that he gives up so many hard hit balls and doesn't strike out many means it is hard for him to be more than adequate most games. It also means every time a few extra balls fall in for hits he has a bad game even if you can't really blame him for those little bloops etc.

 

Suppan had an xFIP of 4.91 last year which is right in line with his previous years. McClung had an 4.84. These are basically the same guys. DiFelice is the more likely upgrade in the rotation imo.

[endaround]

Suppan and McClung kill you in different ways leading to the same result. Suppan allows too many balls in play and has become home run vulnerable. McClung walks tons of batters and will be at 100 pitches by the 5th inning.

[JoeHova]

The tragedy isn't that Suppan is on the team, it's that he is by far the highest paid player. Because of that, no matter how poorly he pitches, he'll be starting for the Brewers and preventing the team from making moves that could actually improve it. I shudder to think of what 2010 is going to be like with him in the rotation. Ugh...

 

To answer the question though, I think if he is pitching poorly by the end of May, they should just eat his contract and cut him. It's so counterproductive to let a guy who is a minimum salary quality player dictate your roster moves. The $42 million is gone at this point, there is no point in worrying about trying to get your money's worth, it isn't going to happen. The mission now is to not let a total scrub hamstring your roster. The Brewers will never get rid of him though, they didn't even cut Gagne or Turnbow. Suppan will be here pitching like garbage until the bitter end. Even Jeffrey Hammonds didn't get cut until there were only 4 months left on his contract.

[DHonks]

"Robin19 pretty much nailed it, Suppan did not pitch anywhere near as bad as the numbers suggest today. Couple weak hits early with a really questionable HBP and then a hard hit triple. Later in the game he had an easy K where the ump didn't call the strike followed by a HR and then the whole lincecum chopper to set up more runs. "

 

And that HBP that Robin19 mentioned clearly didn't even touch the jersey. Really, all the calls went against the Crew today. Tomorrow they may go for us. The questionable HBP, the fair-foul ball down the line, a couple of strikes on the outside corner that our pitchers didn't get, etc. It'll all even out.

[danzig6767]

That isn't an excuse for him ind you, the fact that he gives up so many hard hit balls and doesn't strike out many means it is hard for him to be more than adequate most games. It also means every time a few extra balls fall in for hits he has a bad game even if you can't really blame him for those little bloops etc.

That's it

 

No pitcher on the staff gets me more nervous when luck isn't on his side and some bloopers or seeing eye grounders lead to base hits because it's only a matter of when some other hitters will start ripping line drives or home runs and the less guys on base for that obviously is best.

[TooLiveBrew]

And that HBP that Robin19 mentioned clearly didn't even touch the jersey.

 

Fwiw, the SF feed had an angle that made it look pretty clear that the ball grazed his uni. So unless the FSN-WI feed had an ultra-zoom, high-res shot, I'm going to trust the replay I saw where the jersey was pretty clearly grazed. Still a bogus HBP call, but still.

[brewtown82]

You give Suppan as long a leash as it takes for him to wrap the leash around his neck and make a giant sleeper hold. That way, he gets to relax, and nobody has to throw him under the bus. (I'm not suggesting any kind of physical harm to what I'm sure is a marvelous man. Do not take this literally). But if we don't have a better option, I don't know what we replace him with. The real rotation is almost exactly as alligned, with Suppan at the end. He only started today because he was the most experienced.

[theavrock]

More than one games worth thats for sure.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Soup's numbers last year were pretty bad. He posted the highest WHIP of his career (1.54), 4.96 is a horrible NL ERA, and he was gosh awful down the stretch. I expect the leash to be long, and I don't expect the numbers to be any better.

Before the year started I would of voted for McClung as a viable option. But after watching Seth today, you have to wonder if he worked out at all in the off season. He looked like Pete Ladd out there. I don't remember him being that fat last year.

[Ennder]

Fwiw, the SF feed had an angle that made it look pretty clear that the ball grazed his uni. So unless the FSN-WI feed had an ultra-zoom, high-res shot, I'm going to trust the replay I saw where the jersey was pretty clearly grazed. Still a bogus HBP call, but still.

I'm pretty sure it hit the jersey, but that same angle showed that the ball probably could have been a good 4 more inches inside and not actually hit Pablo. At some point the fact he has a jersey that is twice the size it should be has to come into play and the spirit of the rule has to be enforced not the exact wording. At least that is my opinion.

 

In the big picture I wouldn't worry about a single start if I were Macha and Suppan threw the ball well in general so this game wouldn't make me even start to think about making a change. He has to start walking guys or just having terrible location for me to start considering it. If Suppan pitches like he did today every single game he'll be his normal 4.75ish ERA type self over the season.

[PlayerHader]

Prince has had his share of jersey grazings too to get on base.

 

I actually thought McClung looked the same, or maybe even in slightly better shape than last year.

[areacodes]

So, that's my cutoff -- an ERA over 5.00 after 10 starts, and I think it's time to pull the plug.

The problem with that is you'd be pulling the plug on pretty much every 5th starter, and a bunch of #4's, in the game. According to THT (the article is from 2006, I'm sure somebody can find the updated numbers) the MLB average ERA for a #5 starter was 6.24 and the average ERA of a #4 was 5.10.

 

I think a lot people have unrealistic expectations for almost any player on their team... Is Jeff Suppan good? Of course not, but he does have value, just not $12.5M. He is more than a servicable 5th starter and when people see him as just that, and adjust their expectations accordingly, it shouldn't be a problem.

[dlk9s]

And that HBP that Robin19 mentioned clearly didn't even touch the jersey.

 

Fwiw, the SF feed had an angle that made it look pretty clear that the ball grazed his uni. So unless the FSN-WI feed had an ultra-zoom, high-res shot, I'm going to trust the replay I saw where the jersey was pretty clearly grazed. Still a bogus HBP call, but still.

Yup. I was watching the SF telecast at it did hit the jersey. And yes, it's crap that it counts as an HBP. My dad decided that it shouldn't count as an HBP unless the ball hits skin. Therefore, you only get to go to first if the ball hits you in the face, wrist, or forearm.

[naivin]

There cannot be a set forumla or timeline. It is very simple though, if the alternative makes teh Brewers better, you make the change. If making a change, weakens the team, you don't.

[Tbadder]

I think we are living and dying with Suppan and Parra and Bush and Looper. Their leash should be the entire season no matter how bad they falter. Nobody in AAA is gonna be the answer, and trading for pitching is going to be expensive. You've got to go with what you brung.

[Roderick]

I think Suppan has until early June and then the plug will be pulled to give a AAA guy or McClung a chance while Suppan is healing some "injury". If that guy doesn't earn the spot than Suppan will be back in the rotation for another month, until they are ready to experiment again.

My only hope is that if the Brewers are down 5-0 early that Macha makes Suppan keep pitching until he gets his 110 pitches in, even if he gives up 9 runs doing it. Might as well save the pen as much as possible and let Suppan eat the ERA.

[RobDeer 45]

I think we just let him roll. He is going to have horrible games but will hopefully mix in pretty good games as well. When he's off and we aren't scoring runs, keep him out there and make him work. If we are still in the game and he's getting rocked you have to pull him. It just seems like when things are bad, they are really bad for him. Macha needs to recognize when he's having those types of games and act accordingly. I hope he bounces back for his second start.

[Invader3K]

Maybe just do the Bob Brenly strategy and let him keep getting shelled, and save the bullpen for the games we have a chance to win.