Combined wins for Gallardo and Parra

[naivin]

Anyone think these two can combine to get 25-30 wins? If so, I'd say the Brewers have a good shot at hanging around the WC in late September. Anything short of that (independent of mid-season trades, etc.) and I think it is probably a struggle to .500.

[Invader3K]

I think even 25 is a stretch. Honestly, what track record is there to base such predictions on?

[splitterpfj]

I think 25 wins from these two is beyond question this season, health permitting. 30 may be the upper limit for realistic expectations, but on pure talent, I think they could reach as high as 35 wins between them.

 

I know it won't wind up being this simple, and we all know somebody will get hurt, etc - but I don't think it's pushing things in the least to project roughly 12 wins each from Suppan, Bush and Looper, and 28-30 from the young guys.

 

"Wins" is kind of a goofy stat, since it depends on scoring and defense, etc - but one thing that may benefit the win totals of both guys is their ability to hit. They may get an extra IP from time to time because they weren't pulled for a pinch hitter as quickly as some guys would have to be.

[EbbaStClaire]

More important than the combined wins of Gallardo and Parra is that the Brewers win at least 45 of their approximately 65 starts.

[LS Brewer]

I would like to get at least 25 wins each out of Parra and Gallardo. Keep in mind, however, that even Sheets last year only had 13 wins out of 31 starts and I am sure that most people would agree that he had a pretty good year last year. 27 wins is definitely on the high end of what we should expect out of those two.

 

That said, I would expect about 10 wins a piece from Suppan, Bush and Looper and maybe 6 to 8 from McClung. Adding that to 27 wins from Parra/Gallardo, that would put the Brewers at about 65 wins from their starters alone. If the Brewers can equal their 2008 total of ~27 wins from their non-McClung relievers, that would put the team right around 90 wins and a playoff spot.

[areacodes]

I think even 25 is a stretch. Honestly, what track record is there to base such predictions on?

I'm not quite sure why track record is important and/or why we need one to make such a prediction... but even then Gallardo, in '07, won 9 games in 17 starts and Parra won 10 games last year in 29 starts. Considering we're expecting about 65 starts from the two, and the fact that their "track record" shows they are already capable of winning 19 games in a combined 46 starts I wouldn't put 25 wins outside the realm of possibility.

 

Don't get me wrong, I see wins as a team stat so what EbbaStClaire says is way more important to the overall success of the team this year than if Gallardo and Parra actually get the W's next to their name.

[Ennder]

I'd be surprised if they don't combine for 25 wins if they both pitch a full season.

[naivin]

Obviously anything can happen, but I guess I am using that number 25+ as a key indicator for the team this year. If they get there, I think the Brewers have a shot.

[craigharmann]

I think they will get 35 wins. I'm basing this on 2 things. It's opening day, therefore, hope springs eternal, and also, because they're good.

[naivin]

I think they will get 35 wins. I'm basing this on 2 things. It's opening day, therefore, hope springs eternal, and also, because they're good.

Well, if your right, I would say we can probably go ahead and make our playoff plans right now.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree with Ennder. I would be surprised if they didn't pair for 25 assuming 'full' seasons from both guys.

 

While I'm certainly looking forward to the return of Gallardo (probably my favorite Brewers player), I'm really excited about Parra this season. I think he's really going to take a nice step forward & show why people talked about him as a potential ace when he was coming up through the system.

 

Sometimes I think we forget a tad just how special the assembled talent is in Milwaukee, just since they're 'our guys' & we're used to watching & talking about them. How many franchises out there have a 1-2 punch of young pitching talent like the Crew? While you can name off teams like SF & CIN, there really aren't very many other squads. With Braun, Gallardo, & Parra, this team has a really talented core heading into the future.

[craigharmann]

Well, if your right,

I probably won't be right. I'd love it if I was, but it's fun to be optimistic this time of year.

[Ennder]

People just underrate Parra in general. He had a 3.07 ERA in the minors. His xERA the past 2 years has been 4.30 and 3.84. His xFIP has been 4.61 and 4.03. He never had a high BB/9 in the minors and it came back down in the 2nd half which was mostly derailed by an extremely high BABIP. He also struck out 1 per inning in the 2nd half. His GB% last year was 51.6%!

 

This is a skillset that could easily translate into ace levels sometime in the next couple years. Medium BB/9, high K/9 and high GB%.

[BrewCrewForever]

Wins are hard to judge because of the variables and such. But I would say 29 between the two. Gallardo with 16 and Parra with 13.

[logan82]

I would have to guess 25-30 is reasonable. I think the only way they wouldn't reach 25 is because of an injury or the bullpen blowing a lot of leads.

[naivin]

Well, if your right, I would say we can probably go ahead and make our playoff plans right now.

Then again, when you factor in Suppan, 35 may not be enough.

[Tbadder]

25 seems pretty dead on. 15 to 17 for Gallardo, 8 or 9 for Parra. It'll be close. I'd guess a tick under though. Durability will be the key with Gallardo overcoming a major injury last year, and well, Parra's lack of...

[TooLiveBrew]

Parra's lack of what? 8 or 9 wins for him imo would only be an accurate guesstimate if you're also forecasting a significant injury.

[Ennder]

Lack of health I think he is saying. His injury in 07 was a trauma injury and he was healthy for 08 so I'm not overly worried about it. I expect 12-13 wins out of each of them assuming they go a full season. Each of them are capable of more than that as well so it wouldn't completely surprise me if they combine for 30 wins... again assuming both are healthy and pitch all year. I'm a bit worried that Gallardo will hit a wall after 150 innings or so.

[JohnBriggs12]

25 wins combined from your top 2 starters translates to about 75 wins for the team. It's just not enough.

 

They need 32 wins combined with something like 18 for Gallardo and 14 for Parra to have any playoff hope. I think they fall just a bit short at 29, 17 for Gallardo and 12 for Parra.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly I find this whole discussion a bit strange... especially when you start analyzing playoff chances based on completely random win projections for two pitchers. Briggs, I just don't even undertand the methodology you're using there, if any.

[naivin]

What's hard to understand? If those two guys can get 30ish wins, that requires for less of the other three spots in the rotation. Or, look at it the other way around...If those two cannot combine to win 30ish games, do the Brewers have any shot of getting to the 88 or so that will be needed to make the playoffs? Suppan, Looper, Bush...I think not.

 

The point is, those two guys would appear to have the potential to post win totals in the mid-teens. There is nothing random about it. If they can do that, and the other spots can average 9-10 wins each, that puts the Brewers in position to compete for the playoffs. On the other hand, if those two combine for only 20 wins or so, now it will require the other 3 spots to do much more if the Brewers are to flirt with the playoffs. I don't see the other starters being capable of that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I said I didn't understand his methodology because random guessing isn't methodology. That's cool if you're talking about guesstimates on individual players' win totals, but to then say that you can somehow figure out how many wins the team will have is too big a stretch imo.

 

 

If those two cannot combine to win 30ish games, do the Brewers have any shot of getting to the 88 or so that will be needed to make the playoffs? Suppan, Looper, Bush...I think not.

 

The truth is that you have no idea, and no way of knowing.

 

 

The point is, those two guys would appear to have the potential to post win totals in the mid-teens. There is nothing random about it. If they can do that, and the other spots can average 9-10 wins each, that puts the Brewers in position to compete for the playoffs. On the other hand, if those two combine for only 20 wins or so, now it will require the other 3 spots to do much more if the Brewers are to flirt with the playoffs. I don't see the other starters being capable of that.

 

It's not whether the other starters are capable, it's if the team is capable. Every year the W-L thing pops up when it comes to pitching, and when you talk about individual players, then imo it's harmless. Once you make the leap into team win projections based on some random guess of what a pitcher 'is' or 'isn't', then you're just on a fool's errand imo.

[naivin]

It's not whether the other starters are capable, it's if the team is capable. Every year the W-L thing pops up when it comes to pitching, and when you talk about individual players, then imo it's harmless. Once you make the leap into team win projections based on some random guess of what a pitcher 'is' or 'isn't', then you're just on a fool's errand imo.

Of course it is what the team is capable of...I am simply saying I think the win totals of those two guys in particular will be a big time indicator of whether or not this team has playoff potential. But let's face it, over the course of a season, a SP's win total has much to do with how that particular pitcher pitches. Of course there are factors like run support, defense etc., but for what I'm talking about, those are also relevant. Let's face something else, if your starting pitcers aren't racking up decent win totals, you probably aren't winning that many games.

 

To put it very simply, for the Brewers to make the playoffs (at leats be in contention the last weekend), I am of the opinion Gallardo and Parra need to combine to post about 30 wins (I use that as an indicator of not only how well they pitch, but also the overall team performance, what is required of the bullpen, etc.), If not, I guess I don't see it happening. The question is, is that possible?

[cwolf2012]

Gallardo is on pace for 32 himself, so I think we'll be alright.