Brewerfan Major League Season Predictions / Discussion Now On Home Page

[Mass Haas]

The Brewerfan staff chimes in on the upcoming season in our annual prediction / discussion on the home page.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Player of the Year: JJ Hardy .305/.350/.525/.875 27 HR 102 RBI

Pitcher of the Year: Manny Parra 205 IP 3.22 ERA 17-5

Breakout of the Year: Mat Gamel .290/.330/.500/.830 15 HR (June 1 call up)

Bust of Year: Rickie Weeks .220/.310/.400/.710 31 errors

 

Overall 85-77 we finish 3 GB the LA Dodgers for the NL Wildcard

 

GO BREWERS!

[sbrylski]

Great writeup. Some of my own predictions:

 

Disappointment of the Year: JJ Hardy - .270 / .330 / .460 / .790

 

Still not a bad line, but I think Brewer fans are, in general, expecting too much from Hardy.

 

Breakout of the Year: Rickie Weeks - .270 / .380 / .480 / .860

 

And slightly better but still not very good defense.

 

Overall: 87-75

 

I think I'm definitely being optimistic, counting on no major injuries.

 

I think Hart will bounce back to acceptable, Braun will about repeat last year, and Fielder will step it up slightly. Offense should be a little better than last season.

 

Pitching will be all over the place. Gallardo will be great, but the rest of the staff will have great months and will have horrid months. Overall, slightly worse pitching than last season.

 

Lastly, I'll predict we add a pitcher at the deadline again, but someone much more middle of the road.

[Sheets4theHOF]

Player of the Year: Prince Fielder (.290/.402/.600/1.002 48 HRs)

Its a tough choice between Prince and Braun, but i think a relaxed and fitter Prince will return close to his 2007 numbers.

Pitcher of the Year: Yovani Gallardo (3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15-6)

Nothing seems to phase this guy. His comeback start in september is kind of lost in the shuffle of a crazy month--remarkable performance under the circumstances. He stays healthy and pitches like the stud he knows he is.

Rookie of the Year: Mat Gamel
A injury to or lacking performance of either Weeks or Hall will bring Gamel up to add the much needed second left handed bat to the lineup. Once given the chance to start at third, he doesn't disappoint and keeps the job for the rest of the season.

Jack Voigt Memorial Award - Unsung Hero: Jason Kendall
He will continue to beat back father time and play a great defensive catcher. His years of knowledge will also help Gallardo and Parra develop into the aces they have the talent to be.

Minor League Impact Player: Brett Lawrie
His bat will lead to a faster then expected rise through the minors.

Record: 83-8179
The offense improves over last year, but not enough to meet the short fall in pitching. Too many short starts by the starting rotation will put too much stress on a bullpen with too many holes and question marks. A couple injuries to the starting rotation at the same time could spell real doom. 2009 is the journey to the reward of 2010.

[davego]

Regarding Macha, I'm just hoping he doesn't come off as such a jerk to reporters and (to some extent) the fan base. I don't thing Ned understood how much that hurt him by the end of last year (perception as being a defensive dip-wad).

[Brewer Fever]

Just a couple observations / predictions...

 

I'm a big fan of the Macha hiring. And I really think fans will catch on to how much more fit to manage he is than the last guy who I refuse to mention by name. A major trademark of Macha coached teams is that they get better as the year goes on. No matter what Macha was given to work with each year, even after some of his big name talents were traded away, Macha took the hand he was dealt and crafted a dangerous, competitive team at year's end. He doesn't sit in his office all year mulling fantasy Nascar lineups, with the reasoning that major leaguers know what they need to do. Instead he identifies players weaknesses and demands improvement throughout the year, not just spring training. Get this, I've been told that Macha actually personally runs infield practice EVERY day. Something practically unheard of nowadays.

 

It's a shame to think how much further along our young talent would be had they been pushed to improve in specific aspects of their game. It's not that the previous individual didn't want them to play better defense or better run the bases. It's that he didn't provide any direction or know-how on how to accomplish the task. That will not be a problem with the new skipper.

 

Better in-game decision making anyone? Who-hoo!

 

I'm so glad that the bat-waggle is gone! If I'm not mistaken it's something the Brewers taught #23 because they thought his bat was too fast. I'm pretty sure there are college clips out there showing that Rickie Weeks was waggle-less while winning was it 2 NCAA batting titles? I expect a major leap in production out of Rickie. Kinda makes me glad I still have that autographed jersey. Though I will reluctantly part ways with it should it's rightful new owner re-appear or message me and stake his claim.

 

I think Braun's intercostal is going to be an ongoing issue for the forseeable future. And I'm not just talking about this particular bout of soreness. I think it will heal and be re-injured many times over. On occasion he takes such a violent, quick stab at a fastball he's mistimed and absolutely sends a jolt through his side and midsection. I think it's a permanent nagging side-effect of such a quick swing. I really hope I'm wrong on this.

 

I think this team will start the season slow. I just don't think the pitching will be good enough at the onset. However as the season progresses and Macha sifts through the haves and have-nots in both his rotation and bullpen, things will stabilize themselves by the AS Break as the team climbs back around .500. The good news: A Macha-trademarked scorching 2nd half will make for another exciting September around here. This time with the team doing a lot of winning instead of running on fumes. The Brewers will claw all the way back to within a few games of a playoff berth with a week or so to go...

 

And now the bad news. Having managed only to play .500 ball at the trading deadline, Melvin will pass on making another major addition to the rotation. A miscalculation that will prove costly down the stretch when the Brewers make their late-season push only to come up a game or two short of a 2nd straight post-season berth. I won't get too down on Dougie though. Afterall, he's probably grown accustomed to his teams falling apart down the stretch under the guidance of the previous guy whose name I'm desperately trying to forget.

 

Don't get too down Brewers' fans. Melvin will make ammends in the upcoming offseason and add that much needed pitching piece to complement Yo and Manny, helping ensure that this playoff drought lasts only 1 year.

[DHonks]

My predictions:

1) the Brewers will shock the baseball world by having 5 pitchers with at least 12 wins, led by Bush and Gallardo with 18 apiece.

2) Corey Hart hits .300 with 30 homers and 35 steals

3) Braun, Hart, Weeks, and Hardy improve their walk rates

4) Bill Hall has a great bounce-back year thanks to a better approach, his loss of 20+ lbs (he plays quicker now, and still has the bat speed), and the eye surgery

5) Rickie Weeks finally hits .265, meaning he has a banner year

[Nader Raider Tim]

Player of the year: Prince Fielder. The hefty herbivore ends up hitting .285/.390 with 43 homers.

 

Pitcher of the year: This one isn't tough at all. Yovanni Gallardo is the only real choice in my mind. (Although it could be Roy Halladay) A healthy Gallardo is could, and should put up 15-18 wins a 3.25 - 3.5 era. Parra would be the only member of the rotation that could challange Gallardo for Pitcher of the year awards but the odds of that are relatively low in my opinion.

 

Rookie of the year: Omar Aguilar. Aguilar gets called up late July and ends up the year splitting time with Villenueva as setup man. 20-25 IP with a 2.75 era. Gamel would be the obvious choice but I am going to go with a sleeper here.

 

Unsung Hero: Carlos Villenueva. Villenueva ends up being the best Brewer reliever. He comes in for multiple innings when need, replaces Hoffman when hurt or tired. He ends up with 14 Saves a 3.35 era in 75+ innings.

 

Minor League Impact Player: Lorenzo Cain. Cain is on here for 2 reasons. He does infact have a breakout year spending half a season at AA and half a season at AAA. He also is the main prospect in a trade for Roy Halladay. The Bluejays end up being in deep financial trouble so they look at sheading payroll. The Brewers end up getting Halladay and a dissapointing BJ Ryan for Lorenzo Cain, Zach Braddock, Efrain Nieves and a PTBNL. The trade part may be a pipe dream but I do think that the Bluejays finally end up trading Halladay and Cain does also have a breakout year.

 

edit: Brewers record 86-76 good enough for a tie for 1st place with the Cardinals. I just don't think the Cubs pitching will be that great. Zambrano isn't what he once was. Harden can't stay healthy. Dempster will end up closer Braden Looper numbers than Roy Halladay numbers. Lilly will be Lilly a real nice starter. Milton Bradley plays in about 85 games, why Bradley didn't sign with a AL team is just baffling to me. Lee continues to regress, and Aramis Ramirez slightly regresses. TheRiot does have a breakout year.

[Ennder]

86 wins.

 

Parra is the best pitcher on the team this year.

Hoffman is fine as the closer

Fielder has a better year than Braun.

Hardy improves slightly just like last year and plays himself out of our pay range.

Weeks and Hall both are closer to last year than their best years.

[GormanHarvey]

Good post Brewer Fever! I agree with most everything you said - especially about Macha and Braun. I am so excited to have a smart, competent manager with a great coaching staff around him that he will hopefully listen to. The guy has never had a losing season. And unfortunately I think the intercostal strain is going to pop up several times during the season on Braun.

 

However, I don't think they will start quite as slowly as you do. I think their starting rotation is underrated and that Bush, Suppan, and Looper provide the consistency, inning-eating, and veteran leadership that will help Yo and especially Manny pitch to the level they are capable of.

 

The bullpen is my main concern. I am worried about the injury Hoffman has at the age he is at. AND about Riske. Just doesn't look like he has the stuff to get hitters out.

 

Prediction for season record: 92-70 and a postseason berth GO BREW CREW!!!

 

EDIT: I admire your willingness to stay true to your word on the Weeks jersey, but he is more than content with the fact that they made the playoffs. Hang onto that baby - he's going to have a good year! I believe the person you speak of has posted once since his reinstatement

[Bruce Ciskie]

I, too, am looking forward to a manager who holds players accountable and actually understands how to set a team up to win games once in a while. It should be glorious. I was a big fan of Macha's work in Oakland, thought his firing was Beane's biggest mistake to date, and I think we've assembled a solid staff under him.

 

Unlike last season, when I felt this team did some great things but fell short of their potential, I think this one is not as talented but could actually be better.

 

Player of the Year: Ryan Braun, He'll shake off the muscle issue and hit 45 home runs, continuing to establish himself as the face of the franchise.

Pitcher of the Year: Yovani Gallardo. 21 wins. ERA around 3.20 or maybe lower. He'll become our new horse.

Breakout of the Year: Rickie Weeks. I think this is the season he starts to get it. Maybe I just want to blame too much on Ned, but this guy has too much talent to stink all the time.

Unsung Hero: Craig Counsell. He won't hit for a crap, but I'm looking for him to take more of a leadership role than ever with the young infielders.

Disappointment of the Year: He won't be Gagne, but I don't think Trevor Hoffman will pan out very well, as cool as it was to make that move.

 

Overall, I see an 88-win team that is good enough to sneak into the playoffs. They'll be more dangerous when they get there, too. No matter what they thought of Ned, that late change had to be somewhat shocking for many of the players. This team will be more relaxed heading into October.

[wallus]

Record: 83-81

The offense improves over last year, but not enough to meet the short fall in pitching. Too many short starts by the starting rotation will put too much stress on a bullpen with too many holes and question marks. A couple injuries to the starting rotation at the same time could spell real doom. 2009 is the journey to the reward of 2010.

There are only 162 games in a mlb season.

[owbc]

Great job everyone! Here are some of my thoughts:

 

Player of the year: Ryan Braun. I expect an MVP-caliber season from Braun and I know he expects it from himself. Expect him to be more patient at the plate this season and keep up his power numbers. The only issue is whether his nagging injury will hold him back.

Pitcher of the Year: Dave Bush. Don't get me wrong, I have high expectations for Gallardo, but I expect Dave Bush to be the most consistent pitcher in the rotation next year, throwing 200+ innings and winning 15+. Gallardo will be right behind him, but without a full season in the majors yet, I'm reluctant to believe he will live up to the hype.

Breakout of the year: Manny Parra. I'm with others who think our rotation is underrated and Manny is a big reason why. On the offensive side, I expect Rickie Weeks to steadily improve but not break out with a monster year.

Unsung Hero: Seth McClung. This is the year that Seth moves into a prominent bullpen position and is trusted by Macha to come into close games in the 6th and 7th inning. I also expect to see him get some starts later in the year.

Biggest disappointment: Braden Looper. While he is a bottom of the rotation starter, he gets lit up at the home opener and never really recovers. I expect him to finish under .500 with an ERA over 5.00.

 

Record: 87-75, 2nd place in NL Central. They get off to a hot start but fade in August when the bullpen suffers from overwork due to a weak bottom of the rotation.

 

NL Central: Cubs

NL East: Mets

NL West: Dodgers

NL Wildcard: Phillies

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

AL West: A's

Al Wildcard: Yankees

World Series: Phillies (1) vs Red Sox (4)

[JoeHova]

I think the Brewers will win 82 games. My wife likes them to win 88. Should be an interesting year. Can't wait!

[Never Outhustled]

Player of the Year
Cory Hart
Muscled up with a chip on his shoulder. Finally shows his competitive side. Best # 2 hitter in the league. Will be worth over 5 wins this year.

Pitcher of the Year
Yo Gallardo
Simply the most important player on the team.

Rookie of the Year
Mark Defilice
Consistent, effective middle inning reliever.

Unsung Hero
Carlos Villenueva
Fills in for Hoffman regularly, and used used by Macha to get the tough outs in high leverage situations.

Breakout Player
Bill Hall
Slimmed down and re-focused, Hall carries quality value on offense and defense. He will carry at least 3 1/2 win value, like he did twice earlier in his career.

Disappointment
Chris Duffy/Casey MaGehee
Early spring training hero's fall back to earth like they did late in camp, leaving the bench with just 1 worthwhile bat. Moves will need to be made.

Minor League Impact Player
Bent Brewer
He will be in consideration for the organizations top prospect by year end. Already showing signs, hitting 417 with 729 slugging % this spring.


I think this team will be in contention in July, and will make the big move to get over the top again. 90-72 and wildcard winner.

[joepepsi]

I'm taking the upside approach. This is a team with few "injury history" players, so is quite capable of remaining healthy all season.

 

The young offense learns to adjust to pitchers, something they stubbornly wouldn't do in 2008. Every starter, save Cameron, improve offensively over the previous year.

 

The rotation provides 900 innings of sub 4 ERA. The bullpen doesn't get overworked, resulting in one of the better relief corps in the league.

 

Macha uses his entire roster to maximum effect. Unlike the previous guy he doesn't lazily trot out the same lineup every day, without making a strategic move all game. Instead, he puts the right players in the right situation and eeks out those 3-5 extra wins that his predecessor could never do.

 

95-67

1st in the division

World Series appearance behind the stellar playoff rotation of Gallardo, Parra, and Bush.

[Tbadder]

Hmmmm...

 

Most improved player: Weeks. Count me among those who think he'll bust out. .265/.378/?.

 

Most disapponting player who will have a decent year: Braun. Two intercostal injuries is a pattern, won't really cut loose, 2 stints on the DL, but strike zone judgement improvement .292/387/?.

 

Biggest disappointment who will tank: Hart. I expect him to be the 4th outfielder by August. His swing is too long, he doesn't generate enough power for a guy his size, and his strike zone judgement is atrocious, .234/296/? which leads us to...

 

Rookie of the year: Nelson. Somewhat of a defensive liability but really consistent hitter who as a workable plan, ocassional power, pretty good OBP. .269/.348/?. The best thing the Brewers will do this year is keep Gamel in the minors where he belongs.

 

Most surprising player of the year: Bill Hall. Nice little line improves all around. Saves his career but not enough for the Brewers to keep him past his current contract. He'll be good enough to basically root Casey on the bench.

 

Pitching: a disaster. Not enough innings from the starters, taxes the bullpen, Hoffman never really shows up. Julio? What were they thinking? Riske's done, put a fork in him, although I was a big supporter of his acquistion--stupid me. We're gonna beg Torres to come outta retirement. Melvin has finally turned the Brewers into the Texas Rangers.

 

Best overall player: JJ. He basically does everything well this year except steal bases. Solidifies himself as the clubhouse leader. It's a darn shame he plays in Milwaukee as Rollins and Reyes and Ramierz (sic) (both of them) get more credit. The best non-elite player in the National League (maybe even a Jeter mini-me).

 

83 wins, I'm sticking with this because it was the first thing outta my mouth and I got suckered in by those who claimed that the Crew's starters were essentially as good as last years Non-CC starters. So...83 wins it is.

 

Oh and one other thing. Even though they wouldn't be close to the Wildcard (Mets and Phillies will see to that) this team will be an even more entertaining team on a per game basis as they really start to pound out runs. Maybe over 900 of them this year. Definitely deserving of our unconditional support, especially given that management continues to point the organization in the right direction.

 

Most important event: This year's draft. A Z-less draft will have to be a good one in order to keep the Karma coming. Minor League Impact: Rob Wooten jetting through the system, middle of next year a significant contibutor to another rebuilt Brewer bullpen

[giffted1]

Player of the Year: Prince Fielder

A happy Prince is a hitting Prince. Fielder gets his contract, sheds some pounds, and goes off this year.

Pitcher of the Year: Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo establishes himself as one of the premier pitchers in the league. Rosenthal comes within a few votes of actually getting one right.

Rookie of the Year: Brad Nelson

I get the sick feeling that the intercostal injury will linger this season and eventually result in trip to the DL for Braun. Nelson fills in and shines.

Jack Voigt Memorial Award - Unsung Hero: Seth McClung

McClung finishes the year with a handful of saves along with a handful of quality starts.

Minor League Impact Player: Jake Odorizzi

Jake's stay in Wisconsin is short as he mows down hitters in the Midwest League. He continues to impress in Florida.

Record: 82 - 80

A plethora of short outings from our starters wears the pen out and holds the team back as the Cubs and Reds steam past us in the standings. A significant portion of the fan-base turns on Macha by the All-Star break.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

At this point the Brewers seem like an 85 win team. I think it will take 88-90 to get the Wild Card and 93-95 to win the division.

 

Reasons I'm optimistic - Starting Pitching - This Sabathia/Sheets issue is a little overblown. Granted if you combine the two - Sheets pre-All Star break and Sabathia afterwards, you had the most dominant starter in baseball. However, we didn't get Sabathia until July and Sheets was basically done by then. That and Gallardo only made 4 starts. The net effect of losing them is negative, but not as much as some make it out to be.

 

I expect Yo to be a true ace (our top pitcher by far). I also like Soup to bounce back. I think he was hurt at year end. A healthy Soup gets an ERA in the mid-4's. Bush should be similar, not as bad as April '08 but maybe not at the level of the second half. The real wildcard of the starters is Parra. He's got the stuff, but has been inconsistent. If he steps up and becomes a legit number 2, this staff will be in good shape. I am a little wary on that happening for Parra.

 

Lineup - They need to find a way to score 30-40 more runs than '08. With 5 players on the uptrend of their careers - Fielder (my team MVP pick), Braun (if the intercostal is ok he's an MVP candidate as well), Hardy, Weeks and Hart it can easily happen. I think Weeks can become that legit leadoff hitter and get that OBP to .380-390. Hart just broke down at the end of the year. If he stays consistent they are golden. Hall is a wildcard. It's been 2 subpar years and it is make or break time for him. Let's hope the lasix works. 3B was a big area of under-production and without 3TO, there isn't a great option to platoon. He needs to step up. Cam and Kendall just need to maintain and continue to deliver in the field. I think they get those 30-40 runs.

 

Why I worry - This bullpen makes me nervous. Our bullpen was better than most give credit to last year, even with the high profile implosions of Gagne. Torres was a huge loss IMO. Aside from Hoffman, Villanueva is the only one I have any confidence in. I hope I'm wrong. They really need Riske to get it together.

 

Injuries - This team lacks depth. It will be interesting if anyone at Nashville proves to be MLB ready this year, my guess is they are all a year or two away. Melvin will need to work some magic on the scrap heap to plug some likely holes that will come up.

 

Overall, my guess is we fall a little short based mainly on the bullpen, but we are close enough that a player or two stepping up or someone above us faltering could make the difference.

[endaround]

They are only one pitcher if you expect your pitcher to throw 300 innings. Sheets threw 198 innings, Sabathia threw 130 for Milwaukee. Yo might match Sheet's skill but likely for 10% less innings. Its a big deal.

[nsimps]

When I look at how the Brewers are constructed this year, I see both positive and negative change. I like the way the bullpen is put together and think C-Vill will emerge as a stud. The lineup has a lot of pop and I think Hart batting second will allow him to flourish. Yo and Parra are tough and determined and Bush has looked great. Still I'm going to have to temper my optimism this year and shave a couple wins off my prediction and say the Brewers will only win 158 to 160 games this year. Also, all the Cubs pitching staff's arms will simultaneously fall off. This, coupled with more testicular tortions in their outfield will cause them to fall to 0-162 this year.

[3Putt]

Last year I was concerned about our relief pitching & catching but both turned out to be decent. This year I'm concerned about starting pitching & plate discipline. Hopefully Macha will have a positive influence on plate discipline by holding players more accountable.

 

Predictions:

87 Wins (will take 91+ for Wild Card)

Player of the Year: Prince

Runner Up : JJ

Most Improved Position Player: Weeks (his work ethic pays off and new management appears to have him playing more loosely)

Pitcher of the Year: Gallardo - the guys been a stud whenever he's been healthy. This is his year.

Most Improved Pitcher: Parra - at times last year it started to click. He has the talent.

 

As others have mentioned we have little room for error, especially with our pitching as help isn't quite there in the minors. We need Gamel to have an epiphany at 3B defense and Braun, Hart, Hall & Cameron to show at least a bit of plate discipline. So far, so good with Macha. Go Crew!

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They are only one pitcher if you expect your pitcher to throw 300 innings. Sheets threw 198 innings, Sabathia threw 130 for Milwaukee. Yo might match Sheet's skill but likely for 10% less innings. Its a big deal.

Very true it is a big deal, but here is the point (just not that eloquently) that I was trying to make. Last year Sheets and Sabathia combined for 47 regular season starts. However, Sheets was not the same pitcher after the Sabathia trade that he was before. In his final 14 starts after the trade he went 3-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 81+ innings. Considering he was out there with a bum wing that's solid work, but Parra and Bush likely matched that over equivalent stretches last year. If you combine Sheets before the trade and Sabathia afterwards, you've got the runaway NL Cy Young award winner at 20-4 in 33 starts with a 2.22 ERA over 239+ innings. If Gallardo can deliver 180-200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and the other 40 innings come from the bullpen at a league average clip, maybe that is the apples-apples comparison. It's a drop-off for sure, but someone help me out with the difference in expected wins. I guess I don't see it as the cataclysmic difference that the media prognosticators make it out to be.

 

 

Take that out, a little better run production and a worse bullpen maybe offset each other. I think that gets you 85 wins.

[logan82]

In his final 14 starts after the trade he went 3-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 81+ innings.

 

I am not sure we should expect any pitcher other than Gallardo to have an ERA in that range. Bush and Parra are probably around 4.00 ERA pitchers.

[Ennder]

I expect Parra to be an under 4 ERA pitcher eventually, hard to know if that will be this year or next year though.