2009 MLB Over/Unders for wins. Anyone see any good steals out there???

[gbush2004]

Anything look appetizing in here? I like the TB, Oak, SF, and Cub, Yankee UNDERS and the Dodger, Pirate, Tiger, OVERS. Brewer OVER a little I guess.

Boston Red Sox 94.5
New York Yankees 94.5
Tampa Bay Rays 89
Toronto Blue Jays 77.5
Baltimore Orioles 72.5

Cleveland Indians 85.5
Minnesota Twins 83
Detroit Tigers 81.5
Chicago White Sox 77.5
Kansas City Royals 77

Los Angeles Angels 87.5
Oakland Athletics 82
Texas Rangers 74.5
Seattle Mariners 73

New York Mets 89
Philadelphia Phillies 88
Atlanta Braves 84.5
Florida Marlins 75.5
Washington Nationals 72.5

Chicago Cubs 92.5
St Louis Cardinals 83.5
Milwaukee Brewers 81.5
Cincinnati Reds 78.5
Houston Astros 72.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 69

Arizona Diamondbacks 86
Los Angeles Dodgers 85
San Francisco Giants 79
Colorado Rockies 76.5
San Diego Padres 71

[joepepsi]

From May 20th to the day before CC arrived the Brewers went 29-16. From CC's first start until the first of September they went 31-16. This team is far better than they are being credited. If the rotation stays healthy, which is not that big of an "if" given 4 out of 5 have had remarkably healthy careers, they will win 92-95 games and take the division.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

A few days ago at bodog, I saw that the Giants were at 81.5 wins for an over/under. I was seriously considering making a $500 bet on the under...until I saw that it was already at -150, so it's pretty clear that I wasn't the first person to notice how absurdly high that figure is. That team will not score any runs. But they play enough of their games in that terrible division that I suppose anything could happen, and I'm not certain enough to lay $150 to win $100.

[fondybrewfan]

From May 20th to the day before CC arrived the Brewers went 29-16. From CC's first start until the first of September they went 31-16. This team is far better than they are being credited. If the rotation stays healthy, which is not that big of an "if" given 4 out of 5 have had remarkably healthy careers, they will win 92-95 games and take the division.

I think you are a little optimistic with 92-95 wins, I think 85-88 is more like it although I would give them about a 10% chance of passing 90 wins. If the offense plays likes its capable and the pitching holds up the Crew will almost certainly be over 81.5 wins. There would have to be Gallardo/Parra injuries to make me think we can't win 82 games

[Ennder]

I like the under on the Blue Jays. That rotation is pretty decimated, the bullpen is already a bit banged up and the lineup just isn't very good. McGowan had a setback and Marcum is probably out for the season and there are pretty good odds Halladay gets traded mid season. In that division I'm not seeing 77 wins.

[JoeHova]

I think the Mariners have a good chance of beating 73 wins, but I'm not sure I'd put money on it, especially with Ichiro's illness.

[fondybrewfan]

The Under on San Diego might be a pretty good bet. That team has potential to be a monumentally awful team.

[zzzmanwitz]

I bet Richard Justice has Money on the Over for the Astros. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

For Real though, I'd say the Marlins over 75.5 is a good bet. I think I will put money on the Brewers.

[brewerguy71]

81.5 is a perfect number for this Brewer team.

 

I would go over on the Blue Jays and Royals and under on the Tigers.

 

The Brewers are no where near a 90 win team. Gallardo will be lucky to get 12 wins this year and lucky to get 175+ innings. Dont forget that that part of the record before CC's arrival had Sheets in there who went 10-2 during that span. Its way overly optimistic to expect Gallardo to do the same. Dont forget that Suppan is more likely to regress than he is to get better so thats a couple of games at least as well. Regressions by Cameron and Kendall will also play big parts. No closer will hurt as well.

 

And no improvement in team approach to OBP and the offense does exactly the same thing it has done the last few years.

 

Its a semi-rebuilding year for this team. Conventional wisdom, and objectivity say the Brewers are mid level team in the division and will barely play .500 ball.

[burniebrewer]

For some reason, that White Sox win total seems low to me.

[bball123h]

The Astros at 72 seems totally absurd. Go over!

 

/homer

[Oldcity]

"Dont forget that Suppan is more likely to regress than he is to get better so thats a couple of games at least as well." Why is he more likely to regress than get better? He was hurt for some of last year. I don't know he'll necessarily be any better, but I don't expect him to be worse. If he is worse, there's no way it's bad enough to cost them a couple games. That's a huge impact from the performance of one player. "Regressions by Cameron and Kendall will also play big parts." I could just as easily claim that Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Hall will be better than last year. "No closer will hurt as well." So Hoffman's out for the year? Guess I missed that. My opinion is that while the pitching will definitely not be as good, the offense will be better, and possibly much better. Hart, Fielder, Braun, Hall and Weeks all fell well short of their projections for last season. All the projections for those players are to be better than they were last year.

[joepepsi]

I think the offense will be better and the pitching will be better. 5 starters capable of 175-200 innings each of beter than league average ERA's, will give the Brewers one of the best rotations in the league.

[theavrock]

81.5 is a perfect number for this Brewer team.

 

I would go over on the Blue Jays and Royals and under on the Tigers.

 

The Brewers are no where near a 90 win team. Gallardo will be lucky to get 12 wins this year and lucky to get 175+ innings. Dont forget that that part of the record before CC's arrival had Sheets in there who went 10-2 during that span. Its way overly optimistic to expect Gallardo to do the same. Dont forget that Suppan is more likely to regress than he is to get better so thats a couple of games at least as well. Regressions by Cameron and Kendall will also play big parts. No closer will hurt as well.

 

And no improvement in team approach to OBP and the offense does exactly the same thing it has done the last few years.

 

Its a semi-rebuilding year for this team. Conventional wisdom, and objectivity say the Brewers are mid level team in the division and will barely play .500 ball.

 

Huh? The only question is whether or not Gallardo gets hurt. If he is healthy all year with the offense we have he will get more than 12 wins and 175+ innings. I think Parra is the bigger question mark. If he pitches like a top of the rotation starter the rotation will not be excellent but definitely better than average. I am not saying Gallardo will go 10-2 or have stretches like that, but he has shown that he is more than capable of it.

Hardy, Fielder, Braun, Hart are all coming in to their prime years. Weeks is Weeks always due for a breakout but I am not counting on him despite the upside. As long as is not a complete butcher at third and gets on base/scores runs at his usual pace I am fine with that.

 

I think the previous four players will all more than make up for an downturn that might happen with Kendall and Cameron. Those two players are what they are. Cameron had the 8th highest OPS of all CF's in MLB last year and plays good D. CF is primarily a defensive position anyways, as is catcher. I don't think its out of the question for either player to play to their career norms and that is more than fine.

 

I just fail to see how its a semi-rebuilding year when most of our core is coming into their prime years. The backend of the rotation is dependable and does what the backend of the rotation should do. As long as Gallardo and Parra stat healthy we will be fine.

 

The biggest questions are in the bullpen, but that was the way things were last year and we were competitive.

[Never Outhustled]

Projections are based on stats, and don't include physical changes. Fielders numbers last year were below projections because there is no adjustment factor for becomer a fatter player. Fielder, Hall, and Hart have made significant positive physical changes and will outplay their projections.

 

Taking the Brewers on the over is a no-brainer.

 

I'd also take the Padres and Pirates on the under.

 

 

I like the under on the Blue Jays. That rotation is pretty decimated, the bullpen is already a bit banged up and the lineup just isn't very good. McGowan had a setback and Marcum is probably out for the season and there are pretty good odds Halladay gets traded mid season. In that division I'm not seeing 77 wins.

I agree, and the fact that Halladay might become a Brewer makes it easier to take the Brewers on the over.

[JoeHova]

I don't think the over on Milwaukee is a no-brainer.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't think the over on Milwaukee is a no-brainer.

No problem, but do you care to enlighten us why?

[Weirdos19]

I think the Orioles under is the lock. Playing in a division with TB, NY, Bos, and Toronto will make the Orioles fold mighty early.

 

65-97 ceiling with a 57-105 basement

[Patrick425]

I'm not sure I see any great unders, but I would take the over on the Mets, Angels, Rangers, and Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Steals:

 

These teams should be over:

 

 

AL: Royals, White Sox, Rangers

 

NL: Nationals, Astros, Rockies

 

 

 

These teams should be under:

 

 

AL: Bluejays, Tigers, Athletics. I defy anyone to name the 3-5 starters for the Bluejays. If they deal Holliday, they'll lose 100 games in that division. Sorry but any team with Lyle Overrated as the regular 1B isn't very good.

 

NL: Marlins, Diamondbacks I just don't believe in the Marlins magic this year. They gave up their number 3 starter (Olsen), their starting LF (Willingham) and their closer (Gregg) and got virtually nothing in return. Unless Maybin is an All Star right out of the box, they'll struggle in that division.

 

If I had to bet the Brewers, I'd take the over.

[Ennder]

Fielders numbers last year were below projections because there is no adjustment factor for becomer a fatter player.

 

Of course the fact he had a bad start and then played at expectations the rest of the year even with the 'extra weight' has already completely debunked this comment. Fielder had a bad start because he was trying to pull everything for a HR early in the season, not because of his weight or because he stopped eating meat.

[JoeHova]

I don't think the over on Milwaukee is a no-brainer.

No problem, but do you care to enlighten us why?

 

I'm just saying that I think it's reasonable to see them as an approximately .500 team. They don't have much good starting pitching and what they do have is young, not stretched out, and injury prone. Meanwhile, their lineup has 2 huge holes if Bill doesn't bounce back and their bench is terrible if any injuries strike (Kapler & Branyan were huge off the bench last season and were replaced by horrible players). Cameron is at an age where very few players have ever been good centerfielders, and their 2 best hitters both had down years last year.

 

I can see optimism too, don't get me wrong, I'm just saying I don't think 82+ wins is an even close to sure thing.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I like the Tigers over and the Phillies under.

[Never Outhustled]

Of course the fact he had a bad start and then played at expectations the rest of the year even with the 'extra weight' has already completely debunked this comment. Fielder had a bad start because he was trying to pull everything for a HR early in the season, not because of his weight or because he stopped eating meat.

Fielder did not have a single month with a 1.000 OPS last year, and his OPS in 2007 was 1.013 for the season, so you haven't debunked anything.

[Ennder]

Of course the fact he had a bad start and then played at expectations the rest of the year even with the 'extra weight' has already completely debunked this comment. Fielder had a bad start because he was trying to pull everything for a HR early in the season, not because of his weight or because he stopped eating meat.

Fielder did not have a single month with a 1.000 OPS last year, and his OPS in 2007 was 1.013 for the season, so you haven't debunked anything.

If you expected a 1.000 OPS your expectations were out of line. Fielder from May 1st on hit .280 with a .373 OBP and an .891 OPS with 1 HR per 16.53 AB. That is pretty darn close to what he was projected by most sites. If you expected 50 HRs again you were going to be disappointed most likely no matter what he ate or what he weighed. If his weight was the problem he would have had issues all year, not just early in the season.