TGJ Not On Opening Day Roster; Latest -- Feature Article (Gwynn Thriving)

[JoeDirt]

Yes indeed... however if Gwynn hits over .280... in my humble OPINION that qualifys him for playing for the Brewers and I reserve the right to be disappointed that they let him go.

[Ennder]

Personally, I've seen much, MUCH more Tony Gwynn Jr. hate than I have TGJ love around here. He's like the bizarro Russell Branyan, and just as polarizing for some reason.

 

That is a pretty good comparison. Branyan is a guy that stat guys love but casual fans hate and Gwynn is just the opposite. I don't know if it is sustainable or not but Gwynn's plate discipline in AAA was greatly improved this year and he displayed those on base skills back in AA as well. If he can find a way to hit .280 with a .360 OBP he has some value at CF. That park should help him out as well since it has such a large OF, great for slap hitters.

[JJHardy7]

Yes indeed... however if Gwynn hits over .280... in my humble OPINION that qualifys him for playing for the Brewers and I reserve the right to be disappointed that they let him go.

t

Well first off...it's him vs. Hart then. TGJ was never going to start over Braun or Cameron. I guess IMO I don't like TGJ as a PH since he has pretty much zero power. I do wish him the best, but if he makes it long-term it needs to be as a leadoff type guy. I also wouldn't say we 'let him go'. We got a better player IMO than TGJ is. The Padres are the ones that botched it by not claiming him earlier in the year. Agai, I wish TGJ the best, but it wasn't going to work out in Milwaukee.

[LouisEly]

Well first off...it's him vs. Hart then.

 

I would say it is him vs. Gerut & the experiment known as Chris Duffy.

[UeckerAddict]

While I also wish him the best, I do believe that if his name was Joe Smith, there wouldn't even be a thread on this. It's not much different than losing Dave Krynzel.

[phxMILWfan]

This may be for another thread but it seems to apply to TGJ. I understand OPS but I don't understand the opinion that it is so important for every player. He seems to play great defense, has good speed and is still youngish. I don't get the obsession that every players OPS needs to be .800 or higher. It used to be that a 2b, SS, C, maybe even CF could get away with not being much of a hitter as long as they play great defense. On a team like the Brewers that seem to be very all or nothing (HR or K) why not have a player like TGJ? So what if he has no power. I'm not saying he should start over Cameron, Braun or Hart but he would have been a cheap CFer next year. If you get power out of a position that doesn't typically provide it like 2B and SS like Weeks and Hardy provide I think it would have been ok to play TGJ next year. I'm not a huge TGJ fan but I've never understood the hatred for him as a player. Even if he is the type of player you don't like why take it out on him? The team drafted him and continued to keep him around. All he can do is his best and I always thought he was doing that.

[RobertR]

Who said every player has to have an .800 OPS or higher?

 

The issues with Gwynn have very much to do with his very obvious limitations. The guy has zero power. That's not a combination for success in MLB. The guys that have succeeded with an OBP higher than their SLG can be counted on one hand. And, it's very obvious that pitchers know this as they continually challenge him inside. Since Gwynn very obviously hasn't developed any power, why should anyone believe he's going to have significantly more success in the long run? I'll be very surprised that after this hot streak ends if he doesn't rapidly approach his career norms.

 

At 26, "he's young", doesn't cut it any more, either.

 

That said, I'll agree that the difference between him and Chris Duffy was just one hot and healthy Spring and he has his uses. Someone wants to make an argument that he should have a job as a 5th outfielder, pinch runner, and defensive replacement, they'll get no argument from me. Heck, you want to make the argument that he should get an opportunity to show what he can do, as he's getting in San Diego, then fine to that too if the team can afford to take unlikely gambles and has plenty of playing time to spare, i.e. not a playoff contender. The idea that he's likely to succeed, that needs to end. Much less the more ludicrous talk radio position that he's the leadoff hitter that the Brewers were needing.

 

Robert

[JJHardy7]

I would say it is him vs. Gerut & the experiment known as Chris Duffy.

 

That's true in terms of what we gave up for him or where he didn't get his chance. I think it's him vs. Hart in terms of playing time since some thought that TGJ never got a chance.

[pete]

Guys with "zero power" don't hit doubles and triples.

[RobertR]

Sure they do if they have speed. They find a soft spot in the defense, occasionally, and leg one out. Gwynn's XB rate is low. Even this year it's nothing special.

 

League ISO in the NL is .147. It's .160 in the AL.

 

For his career, Gwynn's ISO is .067. In AAA this year, it's .086. In SD this year, it's a still below average .124. Considering his AAA and career numbers, I know which one I'm considering a small sample size fluke/hot streak. And, even then, it's still below average. What's it going to be after the inevitable correction from his unsupportable BABIP?

 

Seriously, his Petco hit chart is at http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=sd&playerID=448242&statType=1 . Look at the doubles, singles, and flyouts and try to make the argument that it shows any kind of power. Most of his flyballs are opposite field variety indicating that he just can't turn on the ball in the first place. The guy has hit two balls all year at Petco that can even be called deep.

 

Robert

[Ennder]

Guys with "zero power" don't hit doubles and triples.

 

Grounder down the line is a double. Gwynn has less power than Counsell does to put it frankly. He might have Kendall beat though.

[phxMILWfan]

Sure they do if they have speed. They find a soft spot in the defense, occasionally, and leg one out. Gwynn's XB rate is low. Even this year it's nothing special.

 

League ISO in the NL is .147. It's .160 in the AL.

 

For his career, Gwynn's ISO is .067. In AAA this year, it's .086. In SD this year, it's a still below average .124. Considering his AAA and career numbers, I know which one I'm considering a small sample size fluke/hot streak. And, even then, it's still below average. What's it going to be after the inevitable correction from his unsupportable BABIP?

I'm curious then if he reaches base at a high rate and keeps his stolen base percentage high and steals a lot of bases does that negate his lack of extra base hitting? I'm not trying to compare him to Lyle Overbay but he was the first doubles hitter with little speed I could think of. If the player ends up on second base at the same rate... I'm just of the opinion that too much is being made of TGJ's slugging percentage.

[Ennder]

Only if he is very efficient while stealing. Remember that every CS negates 2 SB so his net steals aren't really all that high.

[RobertR]

I'm curious then if he reaches base at a high rate and keeps his stolen base percentage high and steals a lot of bases does that negate his lack of extra base hitting? I'm not trying to compare him to Lyle Overbay but he was the first doubles hitter with little speed I could think of. If the player ends up on second base at the same rate... I'm just of the opinion that too much is being made of TGJ's slugging percentage.

If Gwynn can do that, then sure.

 

I'm of the opinion that he's unlikely to do that because of his complete lack of power. He's not likely to draw many walks, because he can't really hurt you with the bat. And, it's worth remembering that power is something of a sympton. The root cause is a lack of bat speed. That's why teams challenge him inside all the time. His bat speed isn't enough to overcome good inside heat.

 

It's also worth remembering that the lack of power and inability to pull the ball makes it that much harder for Gwynn to get a base hit. Outfielders are able to cheat in a few steps, reducing the gap between them and the infield. The rightfielder also doesn't have to guard the line. Not only does Gwynn lack the ability to hit the ball over the heads of outfielders, the gaps he has to work with are smaller than other hitters as well.

 

Robert

[1992casey]

I'm curious then if he reaches base at a high rate and keeps his stolen base percentage high and steals a lot of bases does that negate his lack of extra base hitting? ... If the player ends up on second base at the same rate... I'm just of the opinion that too much is being made of TGJ's slugging percentage.

 

A single + stolen base is only equal to a double when the bases are empty. Keep in mind that a double is more likely to drive in a run than a single. Stealing a lot of bases and maintaining a high percentage can make a dent in the lack of SLG, but it can't negate it.

[RobertR]

FWIW, as a 2nd round pick, I don't think the Brewers or Gwynn have anything to regret. He's going to have some sort of major league career which is more than a lot of 2nd round picks can say. It's not an A grade for the pick, but it certainly was a decent use of the pick. Heck, if he was going to be a star, he have been a first rounder.

 

Robert

[DuWayne Steurer]

Heck, if he was going to be a star, he have been a first rounder.

 

 

Not that I'm in disagreement with the general consensus on Gwynn, but Mike Piazza disagrees with you Robert. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[RobertR]

Heck, if he was going to be a star, he have been a first rounder.

 

 

Not that I'm in disagreement with the general consensus on Gwynn, but Mike Piazza disagrees with you Robert. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Let me get my semantics right. If he was expected to be a star, he'd have been a first rounder.

 

Robert

[DuWayne Steurer]

Heck, if he was going to be a star, he have been a first rounder.

 

 

Not that I'm in disagreement with the general consensus on Gwynn, but Mike Piazza disagrees with you Robert. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Let me get my semantics right. If he was expected to be a star, he'd have been a first rounder.

 

Robert

I'm not trying to bust your chops, I totally agree with what you're saying. Just having a little fun on a slow sunday evening.

[phxMILWfan]

FWIW, as a 2nd round pick, I don't think the Brewers or Gwynn have anything to regret. He's going to have some sort of major league career which is more than a lot of 2nd round picks can say. It's not an A grade for the pick, but it certainly was a decent use of the pick. Heck, if he was going to be a star, he have been a first rounder.

 

Robert

 

Fair enough. I've never thought he was going to be a great player I just wondered why more people didn't keep that perspective atleast. He is who he is. The team drafted him and by making it to the big leagues he's accomplished more than most. By being traded for Gerut the pick it self was helpful to the team. I know 26 isn't young but I wonder if being left behind while so many other prospects reached the big leagues faster than most prospects normally do messed with his head last season.

[JoeDirt]

If he were in the Japanese League he'd be loved for his small-ball approach. 2-time defending WBC Champ. Japan. Sorry to see him go... as for the ego thing and being passed by so many other blue chippers I'm sure it had somewhat of an effect for him. Lets face it, what the Brewers did in the draft in the Early 2000's with Jack Z was pretty remarkable. We'll still see guys showing up in the big leagues years from now that were his picks. Gwynn wasn't pushed to the forefront of the guys but he didn't need to be. Making it to the majors at 24 or 25 whatever he was and spending a few years going up and down has happened a lot before. I don't know why they felt that Jody Gerut was the GUY? In closing I'll just say that there are certain guys who have the tendency to be in the right place at the right time (i.e. Craig Counsell-scoring the winning run in the World Series twice), and I truly believe Gwynn is one of those guys.

[Mass Haas]

Link while active, text follows:

 

The other Gwynn plays leading role for Padres

He's center stage, and becoming a hit

By Chris Jenkins, Union-Tribune Staff Writer

If the name wasn't so familiar, wasn't exactly the same as you know who, wasn't a name that much of San Diego grew up hearing on an almost daily basis, the questions would be asked and asked often. Asked out of genuine surprise.

 

With every slashing single and double into the corner, with every 10-pitch walk, with every sprint between bases, and even with the times the youthful confidence in his own jets got the best of him, there would be those who see what he does and wonder with delight:

 

Who is this guy? And, where'd he come from?

 

If not for the name, little would have been made of the trade that brought Tony Gwynn from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Padres on May 21. To be more specific, San Diego got him from Nashville, where he was playing for the Brewers' Triple-A club and perhaps not destined for a return to Milwaukee any time before September.

 

Less than a month later, however, the otherwise struggling Padres seem to have found that rare commodity. They've got somebody at the top of their batting order with speed, a leadoff hitter who knows how to get on base, who knows how to work a pitcher, knows how to put the bat on the ball and knows how to steal a bag, if not always the right time for the derring-do that comes with swiftness.

 

Twenty-one games is just a starting point, and Gwynn admits that pitchers have yet to impose their own adjustments on him, but to this point his impact has been immediate and profound. Within hours of arriving back in his hometown and dressing out as a Padres player - not as a batboy, not as the teenage son of the greatest player in team history - he drew a walk as a pinch-hitter and scored the winning run.

 

Basically handed the center-field position, he has held onto it during the absence of Scott Hairston by posting exemplary leadoff numbers, maintaining a batting average of .341 and on-base percentage of .453 for June. Gwynn has hit safely in eight straight games and 15 of the past 16.

 

"He's swinging very well, getting good at-bats, getting on base, which is what we need at the top of the order," manager Bud Black said. "He's getting line drives reminiscent of his father, all around the park."

 

There it is, the unavoidable, the reference to Anthony Keith Gwynn Sr. No problem. Tony Jr. doesn't try to avoid it. To the contrary. He's running with it.

 

"What impresses me is, knowing what his dad means to San Diego, you'd think he'd be playing under a lot of pressure," outfield-mate Brian Giles said. "He seems to kind of thrive on the excitement of playing for the same organization his dad played his whole career with. That's pretty impressive for such a young guy."

 

Although this is his fourth season in the majors, Gwynn's still a veritable rookie in many respects, since the most at-bats he's recorded in one year was 123 in 2007 and he had a total of 119 in his other two stints with Milwaukee. Built more for power, the banging Brewers were no longer such a great situation for Gwynn, whose enthusiasm over the trade for Jody Gerut was as much professional as personal.

 

Because he grew up with the Padres, too, Gwynn has a solid understanding of why it might be especially meaningful to their most tenured fans to have a player who gets by on speed, bat control and a discerning eye batting first in the San Diego order.

 

"It's hard to remember too many 'typical' leadoffs," Gwynn said. " . . . My dad led off a couple years just because they had nobody else and knew he'd get on."

 

For the record, Tony Sr. had 512 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter, batting .324 with a .389 OBP.

 

Fact is, there was a time when Tony Jr. wondered whether there would ever be a place for him in the majors. He was at San Diego State, hopeful of baseball becoming his career, but also painfully aware that pro ball had become a slugger's game.

 

"I remember watching the World Series my freshman year and asking myself, 'How am I going to pull this off? How am I gonna get my foot in this door?' " he said. "A lot's happened since, and somebody gave me that opening. Not just me, but a lot of guys who play the game this way.

 

"The game's coming back full circle. For years, all anybody wanted was the guy who hit the ball out of the ballpark, because so many guys were hitting the ball out of the park. Now you're starting to see, on a lot of teams, what I guess you'd call your old-school leadoff guy. He's not gonna hit a whole bunch of home runs. He's gonna be on base a lot, see a lot of pitches."

 

One night last week at Dodger Stadium, Gwynn saw 33 pitches, turning three of them into hits and four into a walk. That same night, his hustle backfired, All-Star catcher Russell Martin picking up a loose ball and throwing out Gwynn at third on an attempted steal. This was different from the first time, though, more acceptable than Gwynn getting nailed trying to steal third against Arizona with two out and Adrian Gonzalez on deck.

 

"I'm still learning," Gwynn said. "(The play in L.A.) was the first mistake I made that, I guess you could say, I felt comfortable with. I could go to sleep with it. If I had it to do the same thing over again, maybe I don't, maybe I do.

 

"There've definitely been times where I wasn't comfortable making an out, though, and those are the ones that stick with you. You don't want to make those mistakes two years from now, three years from now. You have to get those behind you."

 

GWYNN GETTING BETTER

He's been a Padre for less than four weeks, but Tony Gwynn has shown great improvement with San Diego compared with the three partial seasons he played in Milwaukee:

Seasons G | AB | R | H | 2B/3B | BB | Avg. | OBP | Slg.| OPS

2006-08 130 | 242 | 23 | 60 | 9 | 18 | .248 | .300 | .298 | .598

2009 21 | 69 | 14 | 23 | 7 | 12 | .333 | .432 | .464 | .896

[saget]

I honestly never thought he would get a major league HR. I have been proven wrong and will hence eat my sock.

[brewdude15]

I'm actually glad this trade didn't work out for us. Good to see TGJ doing well in SD. Hopefully he'll have a successful career there.

[Ennder]

I'm actually glad this trade didn't work out for us. Good to see TGJ doing well in SD. Hopefully he'll have a successful career there.

 

Gwynn will still end the year with an OPS under .700, it is already dropping rapidly. He had a nice little 2 week period but every player has that. If we actually played Gerut we might see who got the better end of the deal but as long as Gerut sits on the bench the trade was just meaningless.