Ken Rosenthal predicts that Yovani Gallardo will win the NL Cy Young

[jjkoestler]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9394214/Rosenthal-hands-out-the-preseason-hardware?MSNHPHMA

National League Cy Young

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Yeah, it's a wacky pick, but hear me out. Several of the league's top starters worked harder last season than they ever had before. Those pitchers might not be as strong in 2009, creating the potential for a darkhorse to emerge.

Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum, the reigning Cy Young, jumped to 227 innings from 177 1/3, including 31 at Class AAA, the previous season. Phillies lefty Cole Hamels, the World Series MVP, jumped to 252 1/3, including post-season, from 183 1/3.

Johan Santana also reached a career high - but not by much - by pitching 234 1/3 innings. The greater concern is that Santana averaged less than a strikeout per inning for the first time since becoming a full-time starter in 2004.

Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Webb, a top-two finisher the past three seasons, is always a smart pick, but I've got a hunch that a Cliff Lee-type sleeper is going to win the NL award.

Gallardo made a strong debut in 2007, then missed most of last season with a knee injury. The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco or Josh Johnson probably would be a better choice; the Brewers need Gallardo to be an ace at 23, and their bullpen is a mess. Whatever, he's my Cliff Lee.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It would surprise me. I'll just be happy if Gallardo logs 200 innings. The Cy Young voters mostly look at wins so if Gallardo were to win, that would mean our offense helped him out a lot during his starts. So with a little luck, it could be done.

[RU Rah Rah]

Ugh. The fact that it's Ken Rosenthal makes me think it definitely won't happen.

[PlayerHader]

He actually stated so in a video clip that I watched when he predicted Yo as Cy. Very cool to see the props, though.

[rluzinski]

How high does the odds of something happening have to be before someone wouldn't be surprised if it did happen?

 

Bodog puts it at 30:1, or a 3% chance:

 

http://sports.bodoglife.com/sports-betting/mlb-baseball-player-props.jsp

 

Personally, if something has a 3% chance of happening, I would be surprised if it beat the odds and did.

[brewerguy71]

He picked Erik Bedard to win the AL Cy Young last year.

[sheetskout]

Sometimes I think that National Beat types like Rosenthal or Gammons make these picks to create discussion. Yo is my guy, but it couldn't have been is ST performance that Rosenthal is taking into account.

 

This is the same thing as Gammons picking Kris Benson back in the day.

 

I hope Yo does it though!

[jwaltz]

While I would like to see this prediction come true I just don't see it happening. The competition is too fierce. In order to win the Cy Young he would have to pitch on the level of guys like Hamels, Peavy, Oswalt, Lincecum, Webb, and Santana. Actually, because he pitches for Milwaukee he'd probably have to outpitch all those guys to win it.

[RU Rah Rah]

He picked Erik Bedard to win the AL Cy Young last year.

And probably Dontrelle Willis as the runner-up.

[Ennder]

How high does the odds of something happening have to be before someone wouldn't be surprised if it did happen?

 

Bodog puts it at 30:1, or a 3% chance:

 

http://sports.bodoglife.c...aseball-player-props.jsp

 

Personally, if something has a 3% chance of happening, I would be surprised if it beat the odds and did.

It says Bronson Arroyo's odds are higher than Gallardo's, forgive me if I'm not really putting much faith in those odds.

 

There is also a difference between me expecting it and me being surprised by it. It won't surprise me if Gallardo stays healthy and pitches to his potential and gets a little luck to end up with a Cy Young since he actually has ace quality stuff. Someone like Arroyo winning it most certainly would surprise me.

 

I'm sure Lincecum had bad odds last year but it didn't surprise me that he had a CY type year either. Cliff Lee was a surprise.

[gbush2004]

Actually, it's a 3.3333(threes go on forever) percent chance if those odds are truly accurate. Plus gambling odds aren't true odds, they are created to balance out the money as close as possible and create juice.

[rluzinski]

It says Bronson Arroyo's odds are higher than Gallardo's, forgive me if I'm not really putting much faith in those odds.

 

We can certainly quibble over the exact odds but I think we all know, for several reasons, the odds of Gallardo winning the Cy Young are extremely low. He'll have to beat his performance projection, he'll have to pitch over 200 innings and he'll have to get lucky with his wins and losses (as most Cy Young winners seem to have to do). I think there's a good chance Gallardo could have an ERA under 3.5 but the 200+ innings thing is the big question mark, IMO.

 

There is also a difference between me expecting it and me being surprised by it.

 

I understand that. I didn't think my question suggested that. My question was, if you say that you wouldn't be surprised by it, what kind of odds justifies that kind of comment?

 

It's just a pet peeve of mine when someone says they wouldn't be surprised if something happened in sports. Don't get me wrong, though, it's not as bad making a prediction that someone knows is not likely to occur. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Guys Rosenthal love to do that.

 

Actually, it's a 3.3333(threes go on forever) percent chance if those odds are truly accurate.

 

How dare I round down a third of one percent! Shame on me.

 

Plus gambling odds aren't true odds, they are created to balance out the money as close as possible and create juice.

 

They represent the average guess of thousands of people willing to back up their opinion with cash. Historically speaking, they do a pretty darn good job.

[brewerguy71]

Bronson Arroyo has a track record to stand on as well. I am not expecting him to win the Cy Young this year, but I would be more surprised if Gallardo won it than if Arroyo won it.

 

Lets face it, Arroyo is a workhorse. He puts up the big innings, doesnt miss starts. And he always seems to get a lot of run support. I know its late in the game for him, but if he cuts down on the walks a little and the Reds dont blow a game for him in the bullpen here and there, and the Reds will probably have a better runs scored vs runs against this year, and he could be a high teens winner. Maybe he even becomes a guy who goes 17-9 or so. That would be a record that is better than expected this year for Gallardo.

 

Any guy who wins the Cy Young is pitching at their peak performance that year, or so you would think. Granted, Gallardo's projections are a little off because of time missed for injuries, but at a 90% percentile of expected performance (according to Baseball Prospectus) Gallardo has a 6.9 WARP, 49 VORP, 12-6 3.14 ERA 162 K vs Arroyos numbers of 6.7 WARP, 50.2 VORP, 13-8 3.42 ERA 152 K's. If BP is right, which a lot of times they are pretty close, Arroyo is the better pitcher (right now).

[Ennder]

I understand that. I didn't think my question suggested that. My question was, if you say that you wouldn't be surprised by it, what kind of odds justifies that kind of comment?

 

It isn't really about the odds, it is about the pitchers potential and Gallardo has ace like potential. It won't surprise me if any pitcher with ace like potential wins the cy young.

[gbush2004]

Joe Magrane said on the MLB Network show last night that he sees Yo as a Cy Young contender within the next couple years and possibly even this one.