Diamond Mind Projected Standings

[rluzinski]

Based on the average of all the major projection systems:

 

NL Standings Projection

 

I've already accepted that the Cubs have a good shot at running away with the NL Central. I've also come to terms with the fact that the Brewers are outside, looking in, playoffs wise. I will be very unhappy, however, if the Brewers do not finish second in their division.

 

I haven't really kept up with much during the off season but I am surprised to see the Cardinals projected to have more wins than the Brewers (84 to 82). It's not like they are assuming Carpenter goes back to being a 30 start ace.

[Ennder]

PECOTA likes us for 2nd and it is the one I trust the most so its all good~. I play DMB and it is a pretty flawed game for season reruns, especially considering some of these systems don't include defensive projections so I'm assuming they used the same defensive numbers for each different projections system.

[homer]

The Cubs should win the division.....if they stay healthy and that's a big if with this club. Zambrano, Harden, Soriano, and Bradley all need to stay off the DL for significant chunks of the year in order for them to hit 95 wins. BP's team health report was full of red lights for these guys.

[Ennder]

I think the Cubs are worse than last year, but so is almost everyone else in the division (with the exception of the Reds). They still win it by 5+ games but they probably aren't the best team in the NL this year by playoff time.

[rluzinski]

I agree that if they aren't considering defense at all, it's a huge flaw.

 

As for PECOTA, it's a projection system, not a game simulator. How are they converting their projected player performances into wins and losses? Last time I checked, it fairly rudimentary. And has BP improved their defensive projection system? I know they weren't even play-by-play based for years but I thought I read that they've improved them.

[CheezWizHed]

Something doesn't add up in these projections:

1) The numbers for how many times (out of 6000) a team won the division is not the same number as how many times they finished in 1st place in the division...

2) The numbers for winning the division for every team are ALWAYS greater than winning the wild card. Someone has to be more likely to win the wild card than the division... I could see if you had a weak division, all of those teams being more likely to win the division over the WC. But out of all the divisions, someone has to be more likely to win the WC than the division title.

 

Makes ya go Hmmmm....

[tyguy20204]

These things can't be used for anything more than entertainment value. You only have to go as far as looking at 2008's Diamond Mind projections to see that they are pretty useless as any real indicator.

 

I have a feeling that if we ran a contest here at Brewerfan.net involving projected standings, our aggregate number would match or beat the Diamond Mind numbers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Based on the average of all the major projection systems:

 

NL Standings Projection

 

I've already accepted that the Cubs have a good shot at running away with the NL Central. I've also come to terms with the fact that the Brewers are outside, looking in, playoffs wise. I will be very unhappy, however, if the Brewers do not finish second in their division.

 

I haven't really kept up with much during the off season but I am surprised to see the Cardinals projected to have more wins than the Brewers (84 to 82). It's not like they are assuming Carpenter goes back to being a 30 start ace.

 

Carpenter has looked good this spring. Yes it's a stretch to think he'll make 30 starts though if he and Wainwright combine for 50, that's 27 more than they combined for last year. Their 3-5 starters aren't bad either. Offensively, if Greene reverts to near his top form, that's a pretty formidable lineup too. I could easily see the Cardinals getting close to 90 wins especially if that Motte becomes a dominant reliever. With the Brewers, to me it's up to the offense. 750 runs like they scored last year isn't going to cut it. They need to score 825-830 to sniff 90 wins. Not only could they use some rebound from Hall and Kendall, they need the 07 versions of Fielder and Braun, and more consistency from Hart and Cameron. Potentially it could happen and they should be helped by some good hitting pitchers, but it's tough to predict it.

 

Frankly, I'm not sold on the Reds. They won't be terrible but they look like a .500 club to me. As far as the Astros go, you never know. They still have quality foundation players.

The Pirates? To me they look worse on paper than ever.

[rluzinski]

Well, a huge variable in any projection like this is injuries. You can project a guy like Carpenter to make 20 starts but he might make 30 or none. I think fans could do a better job at projecting playing time than just taking a weighted average of previous playing time.

 

I think this numbers give you a rough snapshot of each team right now but things can be completely different in 3 months. And even if you KNOW the true talent of each player and know how much he'll play, a true 81 win team can easily win 86 games or 76 games, depending on how the ball bounces. That's why it's fun to watch.

[endaround]

How many innings is Gallardo projected for? They could easily have just averaged his last two season and come up with 75 innings. That would make a huge difference.

[rluzinski]

Based off some of the team comments, it sounds like he tried to figure out projected playing time himself. It sounds like he's assuming Yo will be playing a lot this year but I don't think he showed the raw numbers.