$50 Million Dollar Draft Pick?

[logan82]

To pitch 200 innings next year he would have to pitch almost 80 more innings this year. I think that may be a bit much.

 

If I am not mistaken, all signing a MLB contract does is puts him on the 40-man roster right away. Weeks signed a MLB contract when he was drafted. My guess is that he gets offered a big signing bonus and a contract similar in structure to Weeks contract. A deal that pays him decent yearly salaries and escalates if he makes it to the majors. Until he can pitch 200 innings in a year, they are probably best off leaving him in the minors or making him a September call up.

[kramnoj]

If he pitches 200 inning and has 200 Ks and a 3.5 ERA his rookie year in 2010 then he certainly will be worth several million dollars. Two problems with that tho:

 

1) Name me a rookie who has done that, especially with only a few dozen professional innings under his belt.

 

Prior had 211 IP and a 2.43 ERA at 22, and 116 IP and a 3.32 ERA at 21.

 

Gooden had 218 IP and a 2.60 ERA at age 19.

[Tbadder]

If this kid gets 50 mil outta the box we better pray he burns out his arm or everyone who gets told their special by Boras is gonna get 50 mil. Once the precedent has been set...

[PlayerHader]

You found me two pitchers in all of baseball history. One was burnt out by the age of 25; the other by 27. Strasburg would have to nearly match Gooden's unprecedented early career to make the unnecessary risk of a $50 million dollar deal worth it.

 

He'll get $20,000,000, maybe. The Nats would be stupid to offer any more.

[kramnoj]

You found me two pitchers in all of baseball history.

 

You asked for one. I gave you twice what you are looking for. I could look for more, but what would be the purpose? It shouldn't be expected, but it's not like it would be unprecedented.

 

One was burnt out by the age of 25; the other by 27.

 

The Nationals may not care much when a draftee's career ends, as long as they get 6+ good years out of him.

 

He'll get $20,000,000, maybe. The Nats would be stupid to offer any more.

 

I'm not versed enough in risk management to calculate the numbers, but I don't think he would have to pitch like Gooden to make a $50M deal over 6 years worth it, compared to a $20M bonus plus 3-4 years of arbitration money.

[PlayerHader]

"It shouldn't be expected..." That's exactly right, and he shouldn't be paid like it either.

 

Prior didn't come close to giving Chicago 6+ years. Gooden did; so you have one guy to argue with.

 

 

What leverage does Strasburg really have, though? Is he willing to pass up the richest deal given to a draftee to pitch in an Indy league next year and try again? The Nat's have the power.

[kramnoj]

Gooden did; so you have one guy to argue with.

 

That's all you asked for. I could try and look up more, but again, I don't see the purpose.

 

Is he willing to pass up the richest deal given to a draftee to pitch in an Indy league next year and try again?

 

Boras clients have done it before. But I don't think anybody expects Strasburg to get $50M. The whole point of making up that number is that "settling" for $15-20M almost seems like a bargain.

[PlayerHader]

I actually didn't ask for anything. It was a rhetorical comment. Whether you named one or not didn't really matter; the difficulty of the task made the point.

 

I know Boras clients have done it before, but at great cost to the player in the long run. Strasburg is basically guaranteed the richest deal ever given to a drafted player. He isn't going to pass that up for a chance at the richest deal ever given to a drafted player.

[kramnoj]

Whether you named one or not didn't really matter; the difficulty of the task made the point.

 

It wasn't difficult at all. Those were the first two I looked up.

 

I know Boras clients have done it before, but at great cost to the player in the long run.

 

Which players have suffered this great cost?

[PlayerHader]

Dude, I think you get my point. Pitchers who get drafted and make an impact the following year are once in a decade or two. Gooden would be steal at 50,000,000; Prior would not. Strasburg has a way to go before he even accomplishes what Prior did.

 

Matt Harrington...he changes tires for 13 bucks an hour now.

[kramnoj]

Matt Harrington...he changes tires for 13 bucks an hour now.

 

He also received a major settlement, and Boras wasn't his first agent.

[PlayerHader]

Boras is irrelevant. The risk is still the same. I only brought up his name because he is known for his hard line bargaining. Also, he steered Harrington away from sizable bonuses, as well.

 

The settlement wasn't enough obviously; unless changing tires is his top career choice.

[kramnoj]

Boras is irrelevant.

 

No, it's not. The bad decision that was made was made by the first agent. By the time that Harrington had missed a year, his stock had dropped. The settlements that Harrington got from insurance and his first agent were reasonably close to the offers that Boras was getting.

 

The settlement wasn't enough obviously; unless changing tires is his top career choice.

 

It's probably all he's qualified for, and it provides him spending money. $1M sounds like a lot of money, but once you pay taxes that takes out a big chunk. He bought a nice house, and he has a family. It's not like he could live an easy life and never work again.

[PlayerHader]

If the dude has to work that job after passing a multi-million dollar deal, I'd say that he messed up not signing that deal. He turned down $4 million dollars from the Rockies and he didn't get near that amount in the settlement.

 

And Boras is irrelevant. The fact is he lead Harrington and other draftees not to sign. He took a hardline stance with JD Drew, turning down an unprecedented 10 million dollar bonus. Drew ended up performing and making the risk irrelevant (not necessarily worthwhile). Taking that same action with a pitcher is even more risky.

 

That's why he WILL sign.

 

I'm not sure that we are arguing anything here. Do you think he will go unsigned?

[kramnoj]

He turned down $4 million dollars from the Rockies and he didn't get near that amount in the settlement.

 

Yes, that was a major mistake. But that wasn't Boras.

 

I'm not sure that we are arguing anything here.

 

You claimed that Boras clients " have done it before, but at great cost to the player in the long run."

 

I have yet to see that actually demonstrated.

 

Do you think he will go unsigned?

 

Not at all. Why would you think that I do? I specifically wrote "But I don't think anybody expects Strasburg to get $50M. The whole point of making up that number is that "settling" for $15-20M almost seems like a bargain."

[PlayerHader]

Well Boras advised him to turn down 1.2 million the next year, as well, holding out for double that. There went another year of potential development.

 

He cost Harrington money up front, and potentially more down the road.

[PlayerHader]

Again, I want to state that Boras is irrelevant to this conversation. The fact is that Strasburg is GUARANTEED the richest deal for a drafted player. It is going to happen.

[Invader3K]

I guess all this discussion continually raises the question "When is MLB just going to have hard slots for each draft position?"

[PlayerHader]

That's a good question. It works in the NBA and those guys are actually joining the big leagues right when they are drafted. You'd have to institute some sort of world-wide draft, though, to avoid players from defecting to Cuba in order to be signed as a free agent.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...and I've heard the current CBA includes a provision for implementing a worldwide draft, so I don't know why Selig doesn't just go ahead and do it, and level the playing field a bit.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like the Nats have had a deal on the table (supposedly a record setting one) with Strasburg for some time now. Will be interesting to see if they get it done with the deadline looming close.

[jwill535]

I hope Steven remembers that if he does not sign the contract this year, he is not only going to miss a year but is also going to miss a year of money that he will never get back.