$50 Million Dollar Draft Pick?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/03/30/strasburg.contract/index.html?bcnn=yes

 

Wow, some people are delusional. Top picks EVER in 40 years get about $10 million, and Boras/this kid want $50 million before the kid ever throws a professional pitch.... in this economy. Wow good luck. If the Brewers somehow luck into him however with whatever pick we end up with 23?, i say we go for it http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I guess this is no less risky than signing and overseas player for $50 million, but could any player, much less a pitcher, be solid enough to warrant this kind of investment?

 

 

[TheCrew07]

Why when they talk about Dice K's contract in the media or on COTs for example isn't the posting fee considered part of the contract? The Red Sox actually paid double for him, doesn't seem right to me. (not in this particular article, the posting fee was put front and center)

 

I continually try to give Boras the benefit of the doubt, but he really wears me down at times. With the economic landscape in baseball this would limit signing players of Strasburg's caliber to the big 8 or so teams... how is that good for the game? When teams don't have an equal shot to build from within?

 

All players should have to go through the draft, foreign and domestic, and I don't care if MLB slots the salaries, there has to be some sort of cost control in place.

[jwaltz]

I'm guessing some of this is posturing on Boras' part. He'll probably "settle" for $11-13 mil which would still be a record contract. Of course, if any owner can afford to pay $50 mil to a draftee it's Ted Lerner. The guy is the richest owner in baseball and wants to see his team win.

[bball123h]

If this happens, it could be a good thing for the long-term health of the sport. Moves like this would probably get the union to agree to hard slot values, as the rookies would be making more than the veterans.

 

That said, if they couldn't sign Crow last year, I don't see how they hand out $50 mil this year.

[igor67]

I'm pretty sure Boras already used the phrase once in a decade talent with Mark Prior. He sure wasn't worth 50 million even in today's dollars. There's no way he's even close because of the enormous injury risk a guy who consistenly throws 103 faces. I'd argue that he's a bigger injury risk just because of how much extra stress that has to be putting on his arm and down grade him valuewise.

[Wesrob1]

What happens if they select him and can't get him signed? Do they get next year's #1(a) and (at this rate) #1(b), or in other words, the first and 2nd pick, assuming they finish with the worst record again?

 

I'm assuming that's how it works.

[kramnoj]

Why when they talk about Dice K's contract in the media or on COTs for example isn't the posting fee considered part of the contract?

 

It's not part of the contract. It was certainly part of the cost of acquisition, but Matsuzaka doesn't get the money, and it doesn't have an impact for luxury tax purposes.

 

As fas as Strasburg, could the Nationals sign a contract where he gives up arbitration rights in return for a guaranteed contract? What would be the most that he could reasonably be expected to get in arby? I can maybe see paying $20-25M if it bought out arbitration years and got 6+ years service time out of it, if he truly is that special.

[TheCrew07]

Thank you for pointing out the obvious nearly 2 months later...

 

The fact is that they paid over 40 million upfront to be able to negotiate with him. While really any team can afford his player contract which is pretty reasonable, very few can throw around these enormous posting fees, which limits the amount of teams that can realistically get involved with high profile Japanese pitchers. It doesn't matter if the money goes to the player or not, the total cost of the acquisition is twice what it is recorded in payroll discussions, he isn't a 40 million dollar pitcher, he's an 80 million dollar pitcher because that is his true cost.

[kramnoj]

Thank you for pointing out the obvious nearly 2 months later...

 

Nobody addressed your question. Cot's lists the posting fee. I don't know if it did previously, but it's not like it is ignored there.

[Never Outhustled]

What happens if they select him and can't get him signed? Do they get next year's #1(a) and (at this rate) #1(b), or in other words, the first and 2nd pick, assuming they finish with the worst record again?

Thats correct. Because of this, it makes it much easier for Washington to go ahead and make the selection. They have some leverage here. Boras runs the risk, if he doesn't let Strasburg sign, that Washington will just select him again next year. That would be hilarious. I'm guessing Strasburg signs, for about $20 million.

[TheCrew07]

It wasn't a question to be answered, it was rhetorical in nature and I've hammered on that point before when salary disparity discussions pop up. There's a huge difference between his contract and his true cost, and I may be wrong but I didn't find any verbiage indicating that the posting fee factors into revenue sharing which seems to be a huge loophole in the system.

[BoKnowsBall]

Its been speculated that he will sign at the very last moment because of all the risks involved with being a young arm for about 15 mil. There is also speculation that he wont even touch the minors.

[bball123h]

For a fun read about the disaster that seems to be drafting a pitcher in the top 10, and even worse, #1, read this writeup from the Washington Post.

 

LINKY

[Never Outhustled]

Thats a good read. This is the part that popped out at me:

In the entire history of the June draft since 1965, NO PITCHER who was taken in the Top 10-overall picks has ever had a Hall of Fame career. Zero. None. Zilch. And none close.


I hope thats not an issue for the Brewers for a long, long time. I guess we have a pitcher with HOF potential, and we passed on him with the 5th overall pick in 2004, but grabbed him up in round 2.

[kramnoj]

It wasn't a question to be answered, it was rhetorical in nature

 

It's not listed as part of the contract, because it's not part of the contract. Cot's lists the posting fee. How else should they handle it?

 

I didn't find any verbiage indicating that the posting fee factors into revenue sharing which seems to be a huge loophole in the system.

 

It's certainly a loophole, but I don't know how huge it is. How often does this come up to this degree? The next player of significant note is Darvish (AFAIK), and it could be years before he comes over.

[KCBrewerfan34]

During the next bargaining the owners have to stop this madness. Simply setup a slot system, it will basically get Boras out of the whole process, it will stop the posting fees (causing imbalance), just setup a system like basketball, you have to put your name in the draft, this includes ALL players (foreign and domestic). This is such a simple fix it's almost embarrassing it hasn't been done yet.

[Invader3K]

The current bargaining agreement has a provision for the possible implementation of an international draft, if I'm not mistaken. Why they haven't done it yet, I don't know.

[logan82]

I think it would be interesting to see the Nationals play hardball and not sign the pick. Then I believe they would have the top 2 picks in the draft next year, provided of course they finish with the worst record this year.

[Invader3K]

You would think it would be somewhat embarrassing for Strasburg after all the hype if he didn't get signed and then sat out for a whole year. Of course knowing Boras' history, he may not care. I'm guessing he'll end up signing for somewhere in the $10-15 million range. The $50 million talk was all Boras hype.

 

Also, as far as "slotting", doesn't MLB have a sort of unofficial slotting the GMs are supposed to follow? There was a thread about that I started a while ago.

[GAME05]

i always get a little smile when i think of the Twins drafting Mauer instead of the obvious #1 Prior because of Prior's salary demands, and then it turns out Mauer was the right pick to make (not because of ability, obviously).

 

to think of all the can't-miss #1 picks that have flamed out, i can't figure why any team would way overpay for a draft pick.

[colbyjack]

Mauer still got $5 million+ to sign, which at the time was a draft bonus record, so it's not like the Twins were financially savvy making that pick (and he wasn't that big of a stretch at #1).

 

I understand your overall point though. Number one overall picks that have been pitchers in particular haven't had much luck.

[monty57]

Is Boras insistant that this be a signing bonus, or could the Nats just sign him to a 6 or 7-year, $50MM deal? This would be a win for Boras and his client, as they would get the guaranteed money, while Washington would get a player that isn't likely to play in the minors anyways signed to a long term MLB deal. Afer all, Longoria signed before really playing in the MLB and more and more young players are signing long term contracts early. This just adds risk to the Nationals because it eliminates any potential for playing the minors. If he gets lit up early on, he'll still get paid even if he gets sent down. Plus, they really would only get 5 1/2 years, as he would get paid this year, which is partially gone.

[PlayerHader]

He isn't getting 50 million whether it is called a salary or signing bonus. He really has no leverage. They'll offer ~20, maybe, and he'll sign it because the odds of him doing anything to further establish that he is worth more over the next year is virtually impossible.

[lithium75]

From what I've heard, the kid is looking to sign roughly the same deal as the extension Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria got, like a 6 year big league deal. The only difference is that Braun had a year of MLB experience, and Longoria signed his deal after around 50 major league at bats. Talk is that he is planning on going directly to the majors. If he comes right in and is a pretty good big league starter, the deal will be a steal.

 

Think of it this way, he decides to go a more conventional route. He signs a $10,000,000 signing bonus, burns through the minors, and makes a couple of end of the year starts. He goes to spring training next year and makes the team. He is a pretty good pitcher his rookie year, throwing 200 innings, strikes out 200 with a 3.50 era. His second year, he throws 210 innings, strikes out 220, and has a 3.00 era. Washington then decides to try to lock up his Arby years. They know Boras won't sell his first year of free agency, so you are looking for a 4 year deal. $6 mil, $8 mil, $10 mil, $12 mil are offered, and rejected. Boras doesn't like to do deals that long, just look at Prince. He pitches his third year at about $600,000 making him have three years at $1.5 mil plus the $10 mil bonus, and he is entering his arby years. He throws 210 innings with 200 k's and an era of 3.75. He gets $8 million in arby. Next year he throws 220 innings, strikes out 240 with a 2.85 ERA, and gets $14 million in arby. Another similar year, and he gets $18 million in arby, and Washington has to trade him because there is no way they keep him away from the Yankees in free agency. That is 6 years, $50+ million.

 

Now, Strausburg is known as the best prospect ever. He is Washigton's best pitcher right now. Like everyone else, he could get hurt, or flame out. Honestly, I like Strausburg at 6 years, $50 million A LOT more than I liked Suppan at 4 years, $40 million.

 

 

 

That being said, I think the final number will be something like a 4 year $25 million, 5 year $37 million, or the 6 year, $50 million, or something around a $12 million signing bonus. I think that an injury is the only thing that will keep him from earning close to $50 million in his first 6 years regardless of what he signs for, though, unless they can sign him for 6 years, $40 million or less, that is.

[PlayerHader]

If he pitches 200 inning and has 200 Ks and a 3.5 ERA his rookie year in 2010 then he certainly will be worth several million dollars. Two problems with that tho:

 

1) Name me a rookie who has done that, especially with only a few dozen professional innings under his belt.

 

2) If he throws out his arm in year 2, that is a hefty 50 million dollars for one year of service.