Escobar Willing to Switch Positions

[GormanHarvey]

The Brewers had three people last year, Cameron, Hardy and Kendall.

Ok - I meant and should have said another very good defender.

 

Man, sometimes the fun can really get taken out of talking baseball on here

[Ennder]

Depends on what you mean by Elite. Right now Tulowitski and Everett and maybe Yunel Escobar are the cream of the crop, he is not in that level yet. Tulo only showed it for one year and Everett hasn't been healthy recently. Hardy compares very favorably to the rest of the SS out there in baseball and has more range than say Jack Wilson or Derrek Jeter who get a lot more accolades. He plays a bit deeper and uses his size and arm more so he isn't flashy.

 

SS has become more and more of an offensive position so I'm sure the overall defense at the position is lower than in earlier eras.

[GormanHarvey]

Jeter is a joke.

 

I was going to mention that Hardy's evaluation as a defender at SS is helped by the fact that there just aren't as many SS that get by basically on great defense these days

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

You think JJ has plus range??

If all range refers to is foot speed, I doubt you'd find many people that would say Hardy is above average for a MLB SS. But all I really care about is how many balls he gets to, and how often he turns balls he gets to into outs. It seems there's not much argument about the latter -- everybody basically agrees that Hardy is quite reliable on balls he gets to. The best current defensive metrics tend to show Hardy as above average at the former as well. Now, that is a combination of positioning, reactions when contact is made, acceleration, and foot speed. The only one of those four components I think my eyes are any good at evaluating is foot speed. On television, you almost never see an infielder's reaction and first step in the same shot as the hitter making contact. Even if I'm at a game, my eye is following the action, which means I'm not looking at the SS when a ball is hit. By the time my attention shifts to the SS, he's already moving. I don't doubt a professional scout with a trained eye and the narrow objective of evaluating a single player can do a lot better with his eyes alone than me, but I still think I'd rather have mounds of data than anybody's subjective evaluation based on (at most) a handful of plays over a couple of games.

 

You'll sometimes see it lodged as a criticism of defensive metrics that they don't separate true range out from all the other stuff. I don't necessarily see it as such a weakness. The coaching staff probably shares some credit/blame for positioning, but the rest is all the player. Even if Hardy is slow, he might still have elite range (at least in the fashion I think about range) if he has exceptionally quick reactions or a great first step, or if (as Ennder points out) his arm is allowing him to play deeper and make up for a lack of raw speed by giving himself an extra fraction of a second to get in front of the ball before it's on him.

[LouisEly]

I would let Hardy walk and hope we get the good draft pick personally.

 

That same hope didn't work out real well with Sabathia and Sheets. If the Yankees have another offseason like this year it could be a 2nd round pick... or a 3rd round pick...

 

I'm still not sold that Escobar can hit at the big league level. If he repeats his 2008 numbers this year in AAA then I will become a believer.

[Ennder]

I would let Hardy walk and hope we get the good draft pick personally.

 

That same hope didn't work out real well with Sabathia and Sheets. If the Yankees have another offseason like this year it could be a 2nd round pick... or a 3rd round pick...

I definitely agree that it is risky but I don't think we will be in a situation where it makes sense to trade him in the next couple years and I dont' think the team will be able to afford him when he hits the market. I think we'll end up just letting him walk and hope it works out.

[endaround]

You take the 2+ extra wins Hardy brings and the draft picks instead of a pitching prospect 1-2 years away.

[battboy9933]

Ok so I think its pretty safe to say that there are only 3 options for our middle infield this year

 

Hardy SS Weeks2nd

Escobar SS Weeks 2nd

Hardy SS Escobar 2nd

 

Personaly I would like the last option. I think its best to have the best 9 players on the field, and in my opinion Escobar is alot better than Weeks. Yes Escobars bat probably isnt as good as it could be but it would probably not strikeout as much as Weeks, and I think he would hit atleast .245 wich is all Weeks is good for. Than defensivly there is no comparison between Weeks and Escobar.

 

So baisicaly Escobar would probably be better at SS in the long run but for right now it is best for the team to have him at 2nd.

 

And I wouldnt mind seeing that be our MI for the next 10 years, I think it would easily be one of the best for atleast that long.

 

And just wondering but has he been playing at second at all so far? If not, I dont think they would put him there to start the season without him playing there during ST

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Realistically speaking, if the Brewers were to approach JJ with a long term contract this year, what would his cost be?

 

5 years, 60 million?

 

If Alcides is as good as everyone thinks he is @ SS, it'd be the best to trade him or leave him at SS. It just doesn't make sense to move him to a different position long term. If only JJ would be willing to move to 3rd.

[endaround]

Escobar's CHONE projection:.270/.303/.356

 

Escobar's ZiPS projection: .268/.292/.342

 

He's not ready.

[igor67]

endaround is right, it is possible that Escobar could be ready to explode out of the gate and hit .300 with awesome defense at second, but Weeks is at worst a know commodity and if he explodes he's the step below Chase Utley. It's not like we are going to get anything huge for Weeks right now that compensates for the risk of Escobar. Let him get some time at second in AAA and see how his bat develops, and make a move if you have to later in the season when there is less risk.

[brewerguy71]

I think Escobar batting 8th in the Brewer lineup, with his defense, would work out just fine. I agree that his bat needs to develop some in AAA this year, but those projections, to go along with his defense would definitely improve the Brewers. He definitely would make this years pitching staff better than what it is projected to be right now.

[Oldcity]

Why would Hardy want to move off shortstop? He's probably the Brewers' best player, and by most accounts, a good defensive shortstop. He's already said he doesn't want to move off short, and I don't see how anyone can blame him. He'll be in for a sweet payday in a couple years to play short, whether it comes from the Brewers or not.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar's CHONE projection:.270/.303/.356

 

Escobar's ZiPS projection: .268/.292/.342

 

He's not ready.

I can handle arguments against prospects, but not ones that are completely projection based. Projection systems aren't able to account or predict breakout seasons. We should absolutely take the data into consideration, but in my opinion it's not rational to base one's entire opinion on projections or MLEs, they don't mean squat in the end, especially for young men that are still growing into the game. What did PECOTA say about Hardy in 2004? I just posted that last week... not that Escobar will follow the exact same career path and hit for as much power, but they have been somewhat similar to this point, only JJ had the benefit of rolling through High Desert, which made every prospect look like an all-star, and Escobar went through BC where RH batters go to die.

 

As far as Escobar vs Weeks, Escobar's OBP will not approach Weeks' this year, he's developing more patience, but he's a much more aggresive hitter and Ks too much relative to his power. Weeks would really have to stink for an extended period of time for Escobar to get a look.

 

I'm not against acquiring some prospect pitching that's 2 year's away... that works out almost perfectly given the big league club, Suppan's contract and Looper's option. The point about pitching is that system needs an infusion of top of the rotation talent, we've always had plenty of guys that profile as 4/5 or bullpen players, I'm not sure why Wright and Green are better depth than Gulin and DiFelice were? They system has players like Dillard, Cody, and Anundsen at AA or higher this season as well. We lack top of the rotation talent. Jeffress and Braddock are not sure things so I will continue to view pitching as the top priority until proven otherwise. There's no downside, say we get 2 young arms, if Jeffress and Braddock make it the team is in a much better position going forward with quality depth and mutiple options available. If nothing else, there's less reason to push the youngsters harder than they need to be pushed, but chances are 1 or 2 of the arms will flame out due to performance or injury and we'll need that depth, which we don't currently have.

[Ennder]

So I like him so he should be fine is what you are saying? projections aren't perfect but they are based off the best data in general. They are pessimistic in general because the reality is that most players fail their first time through the league. That is why so many sure thing prospects take 2, 3 or even 4 years to produce at their minor league rates.

[endaround]

And Hardy wasn't ready in 2004. Or 2005 due to injury and the Brewers ended up throwing away a year. And Hardy hit significantly better in Huntsville then did Escobar despite being a year younger. Huntsville plays neutral now where it had something ridiculous like 0.86 in 2003.

[TheCrew07]

No, for the 100th time basing an opinion solely on the projections ignores the scouting aspect... projections are not absolutes, not in any case... established MLB player or prospect, they are just part of the puzzle and do not represent any player's true value. At best they are simply a pretty good educated guess, nothing more and nothing less. I've seen you guys continually rag on people that ignore advanced statistics but you're the same, you ignore the talent and scouting side forming opinions based solely on metrics, shouldn't there be a happy middle ground here someplace? It doesn't take a genius to see the holes in the work, no matter how well thought out... Take BABIP for example... because of how BABIP is used it's biased towards power hitters, because if 2 players hit for exactly the same average but one hits 30 HRs and one hits 2, the guy with 30 will have a more sustainable BABIP because he had 28 more hits removed from the equation so his average is lower. How often is that little tidbit glossed over in the various studies based on BABIP around the web?

 

As far as what I believe about Escobar, I've never once claimed he'd replace Hardy's offensive value, I've stated numerous times I have no issue with him spending a season in AAA, and have repeatedly tried to make the point that the issue here is players vs draft picks because Hardy is moving on regardless. It doesn't matter if Brewer ends up being the replacement player, forget about the name of the player, Hardy will eventually be replaced by a prospect. Furthermore, I value the word of Don Money who doesn't lightly toss around praise, numerous other scouts that were quoted in AA game articles last season, and people within the Brewer organization, over those on this board that haven't seen the prospects play in person and try to tell me how someone will or will not perform based solely on metrics. I'd rather form my opinions based on all of the information available, including advanced metrics, however I believe that metrics are on thin ice when trying to project the future production of prospects, it's just way too nebulous to predict. The leagues all play differently, talent isn't spread equally between the teams and leagues, some players continue to grow while some plateau early, etc, etc, etc...

 

What's the difference if the prospect breaks in this later this year or next, the reality is that eventually they'll have to break in, the sooner they break in, the sooner they get past their struggles if they will in fact struggle. Why exactly are you so concerned with delaying the inevitable? Every prospect will eventually plateau in the minors, if they keep progressing there's only so much they'll learn down there, eventually they need to face the fire. For arguments sake if Escobar comes out on fire in AAA would he be more ready in June than he is today? Other than the arby clock, what's the difference? Winning in 2009 shouldn't take precedence over the long-term future of the team. We lack quality pitching, provide us an alternative to acquire top of the rotation talent other than deadline deals and free agency and we'll finally have a quality discussion on the subject. Otherwise, it's the same tired arguments about BABIP and metrics, which don't have anything to do with the issue that many of us are trying to discuss which is how to acquire more affordable top of the rotation talent.

 

I've already said I don't think Melvin will do anything, he's not a bold GM, he makes the obvious moves and does well evaluating talent, but in my opinion his moves have been of the routine variety. No I don't consider deadline deals as bold moves as that's what every club in contention does, it's the obvious move that fans have come to expect. That's why people continually post about acquiring Peavy, Halladay, etc... teams in contention acquire names at the deadline. I like him, it's just that for me personally he spends too much on the bullpen. isn't as aggressive as I would like on the trade front, and somehow locks up the wrong players early with the exception of Braun. Players like Helms, Hall, Clark, Turnbow. have not been money well spent, my feelings about Brady Clark aside.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've already said I don't think Melvin will do anything, he's not a bold GM, he makes the obvious moves and does well evaluating talent, but in my opinion his moves have been of the routine variety. No I don't consider deadline deals as bold moves as that's what every club in contention does, it's the obvious move that fans have come to expect. That's why people continually post about acquiring Peavy, Halladay, etc... teams in contention acquire names at the deadline.

 

So the Sabathia acquisition apparently falls victim to this description? That was as bold a move as I've seen any Brewers GM make. He beat the other 'deadline buyers' & added an elite player that proceeded to pitch his butt off. Sorry to veer off-topic, but saying Melvin isn't "bold" just seems like a blanket statement that isn't necessarily based in truth. Honestly if many fans had their way, GMs would make way too many moves. I like Melvin's style just fine -- what GMs are out there that have success wheeling & dealing a lot?

 

 

Take BABIP for example... because of how BABIP is used it's biased towards power hitters, because if 2 players hit for exactly the same average but one hits 30 HRs and one hits 2, the guy with 30 will have a more sustainable BABIP because he had 28 more hits removed from the equation so his average is lower. How often is that little tidbit glossed over in the various studies based on BABIP around the web?

 

It's not like Escobar's BABIP last season in Nashville was anywhere near sustainable. If it were I wouldn't really find it problematic for you to focus on it so much.

[igor67]

Sabathia was definitely a bold move, almost no one deals significant players a month before the deadline. I can't think of anybody recently who was dealt that far in advance. The traditional game is to play it down to the wire looking for a better bid. Melvin just came in and had a general sense of who else was in competition and put together a package that wasn't going to be beat, so he could get more innings out of the player. It was very nontypical thinking.

[Never Outhustled]

I've already said I don't think Melvin will do anything, he's not a bold GM, he makes the obvious moves and does well evaluating talent, but in my opinion his moves have been of the routine variety. No I don't consider deadline deals as bold moves as that's what every club in contention does, it's the obvious move that fans have come to expect.

I agree. And making a deadline deal 3 weeks early wasn't bold on our parts, that was bold by Cleveland. The Cubs made a deal days later. It happens.

That said, i'm happy Melvin won't ship off Hardy early, as his win values would be impossible to replace.

 

 

That's why people continually post about acquiring Peavy, Halladay, etc... teams in contention acquire names at the deadline.

I think its about proven production, not names. Pitching is so unpredictable, so its smart to aquire the few who are predictable.

 

Huntsville plays neutral now where it had something ridiculous like 0.86 in 2003.

I don't like how our prospects this past season are minimized because Huntesville suddenly played neutral. The parks didn't change, there was just some great hitters in the league, and most of them played at Huntesville. We had no pitching there. The park is still a pitchers park.They didn't move the wall or change the batters eye or install a dome to deaden the air. It played the way it played because of the players who played in it.

[PeaveyFury]

The Cubs made a deal days later.

 

...largely because the Brewers traded for Sabathia and they wanted to keep up.

It happens.

 

You have other examples of it happening before last year?

 

Cleveland's thinking was out of the box in trading him early, but really, it was also the right thing to do. They were a long shot to compete at that point, and could maximize their return of talent from the Brewers by trading him early.

[Ennder]

I've seen you guys continually rag on people that ignore advanced statistics but you're the same, you ignore the talent and scouting side forming opinions based solely on metrics, shouldn't there be a happy middle ground here someplace?

 

I don't ignore talent and scouting, I ignore random fans opinions of players. If the Brewers bring up Escobar and say that he has all the tools to succeed as a hitter at the major league level that is one thing. If scouting reports say this is a bat that will play in the big leagues right now then I can believe it. Almost every scouting report I've read on Escobar is dubious about his bat. Escobar should be in AAA this year, there is no good reason to assume he can skip AAA completely and succeed in the majors as a hitter given his skillset.

 

One fans observations do not out weigh scouts and stats for me.

[Never Outhustled]

The Cubs made a deal days later.

 

...largely because the Brewers traded for Sabathia and they wanted to keep up.

I thought the Cubs would have made that deal either way, as they got something for nothing. Good thing Gaudin fell apart, or it would have been a rediculous steal.

[Badger OKC]

I believe Houston picked up Carlos Beltran early in the hopes of making a playoff run.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've seen you guys continually rag on people that ignore advanced statistics but you're the same, you ignore the talent and scouting side forming opinions based solely on metrics, shouldn't there be a happy middle ground here someplace?

 

I don't see how you can honestly make that claim, unless you just really don't pay attention to most of the discussions here (which I personally don't think is the case). I can't think of one so-called 'stat head' that ignores scouting. That's just a lazy and sort of insulting jab to take imo. I think one of the things that makes this community great is that there is a good balance struck in the stats/scouting discussions.