Suppan will start opener

[Tbadder]

I know this is an impossibility, but if I could match up Suppan and Looper against the other team's number 1 and number 2 pitcher all year I'd take that. I like Gallardo, Parra, and Bush against the bottom of the rotation. So I think it's a good strategy. Weaver used to do that all the time--throw out a sacrificial lamb to the other guys' number one starter. Then he'd steal a few and really destroy you in a 3 or 4 games series.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well, the pessimists here can look on the bright side

Isn't that an oxymoron/paradox? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif If Macha wants to throw Suppan out there for opening day, fine by me. It just puts the odds very high at us starting the season 0-1. But if we win the series, it's a brilliant move. I would have started Suppan in game 2 or 3 so we could have avoided him in the Cubs series. Heck, maybe we are underrating Suppan too much. Maybe he'll acutally produce this year.

[endaround]

I know this is an impossibility, but if I could match up Suppan and Looper against the other team's number 1 and number 2 pitcher all year I'd take that. I like Gallardo, Parra, and Bush against the bottom of the rotation. So I think it's a good strategy. Weaver used to do that all the time--throw out a sacrificial lamb to the other guys' number one starter. Then he'd steal a few and really destroy you in a 3 or 4 games series.

 

So when the Brewers'#5 faces the other teams #1 its good because the Brewers get their #1 against other teams' #5! I'll let that sink in.

[sbrylski]

Doing some quick and dirty estimates, I think it matters little who starting pitchers end up getting matched up with. I had 2 pretend teams with averag eoffenses. Team one had a 3.5 ERA pitcher in game 1 and a 5.5 ERA pitcher for game 2. Team 2 had a 3.5 ERA pitcher and a 5.5 ERA pitcher to slot.. It pretty much didn't matter who pitched first.

 

That mini-study misses the point. We want to know the psychological and situational effects that may make a pitcher better or worse when faced with the opposing team's #1 pitcher. Whether there's merit to that hurting some people (or helping), I don't know, but this study definitely doesn't show it. Looking at a handful of pitchers and comparing their ERA's when they are matched up against varying levels of opposing pitchers would give a better conclusion.

 

Allao, I question the relevance of Bush's home/road split. That's the kind of stuff gamblers latch onto but I think you can always find odd splits. If anything, I'd think Miller Park would be bad for Bush, as it gives up an above average number of HRs and Bush is a flyball pitcher.

 

If Miller is an average offensive park, and Bush preforms better there than at a composite of all the other road parks (which should also be equal to an average park), doesn't that point to Bush doing better at home for psychological/comfort/etc. reasons? I think its somewhat relevant. That said, he should profile well into SF with it being a pitchers park.

[Fatter than Joey]

If Miller is an average offensive park, and Bush preforms better there than at a composite of all the other road parks (which should also be equal to an average park), doesn't that point to Bush doing better at home for psychological/comfort/etc. reasons?

 

No.

 

If Bush pitched worse at every NL park across the board than perhaps -- My guess it's just a weird split by getting pounded by the Phillies or Cubs on the road. If Bush had a 2IP 6ER appearance in MP, it would take a lot of time to absorb it.

 

That said, he should profile well into SF with it being a pitchers park.

 

Every pitcher should profile well in an extreme pitcher's park.

[GormanHarvey]

Every pitcher should profile well in an extreme pitcher's park.

Except maybe Barry Zitohttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[LouisEly]

I know this is an impossibility, but if I could match up Suppan and Looper against the other team's number 1 and number 2 pitcher all year I'd take that. I like Gallardo, Parra, and Bush against the bottom of the rotation. So I think it's a good strategy. Weaver used to do that all the time--throw out a sacrificial lamb to the other guys' number one starter. Then he'd steal a few and really destroy you in a 3 or 4 games series.

If this theory holds true in reality, I'm all for it. In baseball you only need to win three out of every five and you're looking at 97 wins. If "giving" away one game creates more favorable matchups in the next 3 or 4 games then I see little fault in it.

 

I also think that they will still need to watch Gallardo's and Parra's IP this year, so moving them down a little may give them a chance to pace them a little more if needed. Also, Suppan isn't falling off a cliff like people think; in August last year he was 5-0 with an ERA of 3.00; September was a disaster but I think he was hurt more than he led on to, and they needed innings so he sacrificed himself to give what he could.

[sbrylski]

Every pitcher should profile well in an extreme pitcher's park.

 

Thanks for the tip.

 

If Bush pitched worse at every NL park across the board than perhaps

 

Every single split must agree? Even 7 inning samples? If a player has a 1.000 OPS but a .700 OPS verse LHP with 1 out, does that make any conclusion inconclusive?

 

-- My guess it's just a weird split by getting pounded by the Phillies or Cubs on the road. If Bush had a 2IP 6ER appearance in MP, it would take a lot of time to absorb it.

 

Why would a 2 inning appearance on the road would take more time to be canceled out in the composite road sample than it would in the home sample?

 

 HOME AWAY PFruns ---- ---- ------ 2004 2.77 4.73 +12.8% 2005 4.95 4.04 + 3.9% 2006 3.53 5.38 + 0.4% 2007 4.26 6.14 + 1.1% 2008 3.50 5.14 - 5.5% Career 3.82 5.18 +2.54% 

 

All but one year he's played in a slightly offensive park, and all but one year he's preformed much worse on the road despite that.

[sbrylski]

If this theory holds true in reality, I'm all for it. In baseball you only need to win three out of every five and you're looking at 97 wins. If "giving" away one game creates more favorable matchups in the next 3 or 4 games then I see little fault in it.

 

As Russ's mini-study apparently supports, the effects will cancel each other out. If you're a .600 team, you are going to win 60% of your games if your odds of winning are 0%/0%/100%/100%/100% or 60%/60%/60%/60%/60% over each set of 5 games.

[Fatter than Joey]

Thanks for the tip.

 

I am not sure if you are being surly here -- I didn't mean to be a smartass -- perhaps I didn't understand your statement.

 

Why would a 2 inning appearance on the road would take more time to be canceled out in the composite road sample than it would in the home sample?

 

Well a pitcher like Bush could face the Phillies, Cubs, Red Sox on the road, and the Nats, Pirates and Royals at home in any given season, and then Suppan could face the exact opposite scenario, and you could conclude that Bush sucks on the road, and Suppan is awesome at home, and vica versa.

 

All but one year he's played in a slightly offensive park, and all but one year he's preformed much worse on the road despite that.

 

He could have drawn the Phillies more than the Nats... on the road, and the Nats more than the Phils at home.

 

Weaver used to do that all the time--throw out a sacrificial lamb to the other guys' number one starter. Then he'd steal a few and really destroy you in a 3 or 4 games series.

 

Yeah, but isn't Weaver doing the same thing to himself? -- If you send your #5 against their #1 -- you are send your #1 against their five as well -- it should all even out. I don't think Weaver ever really did this when he had his best teams..

 

Really Weaver's "strategy" was to ride HOFer Jim Palmer, and then have 2-3 other studs like Cuellar, McNally and Dobson in the rotation. Weaver flat out had a solid rotation.

[logan82]

I also think that they will still need to watch Gallardo's and Parra's IP this year, so moving them down a little may give them a chance to pace them a little more if needed.

 

I agree there may be some good to skipping Gallardo and Parra 2-3 times this year to keep their innings down. You don't need to move them down in the order to skip a start now and then.

[sbrylski]

I am not sure if you are being surly here -- I didn't mean to be a smartass -- perhaps I didn't understand your statement.

 

Glad you didn't mean it, but that's the way it came across. We'll move past it...

 

He could have drawn the Phillies more than the Nats... on the road, and the Nats more than the Phils at home.

 

Isn't it safer to assume that over the course of his five year career that this has balanced out?

 

To make another analogy, you could say of a 1.000 OPS hitter that its possible he only faced the Glendon Rusch's of the world every time.

[Fatter than Joey]

Glad you didn't mean it, but that's the way it came across. We'll move past it...

 

What did you mean by it? -- I am curious.

 

To make another analogy, you could say of a 1.000 OPS hitter that its possible he only faced the Glendon Rusch's of the world every time.

 

If you look at 2008 -- At the beginning of the year here are his starts:

 

@CHC 5.1 6

Cin 5.1 4

@Stl 6 3

Phil 6 4

@FLa 6 6

 

STL 6 1 -- This was Bush's first exceptionally good start of 2008

 

Here is the end of his season.

 

@CIN 7 1

WSN 6.1 1

@LA 7 2

Pit 7 3

@Pit 6.2 1

NYM 5 6

Cin 8 2

@PHI 6 3

@CHC 5 2

PIT 5 3

 

I don't see a big difference -- between the road pitcher and the home pitcher...

 

Bush struggled at the beginning of the season, and pitched better at the end -- he had more road starts at the early part of the year.

 

It could also be factors such as Yost's usage of BP on the road.

[LouisEly]

As Russ's mini-study apparently supports, the effects will cancel each other out. If you're a .600 team, you are going to win 60% of your games if your odds of winning are 0%/0%/100%/100%/100% or 60%/60%/60%/60%/60% over each set of 5 games.

 

Right, but the theory is not reality in baseball. In the history of baseball, almost every single team won at least 1/3rd of their games and almost every team lost at least 1/3rd of their games. So what matchups do is try to tilt the remaining 1/3rd in your favor. So every team has no worse chance than 33% to win any game and no better chance than 67% to win any game. So the most you can change the odds are 16.67% each way.

 

So by putting Suppan out there as the #1, say they reduce the odds of winning to 35% for that game. But it increases the odds to 60% in the remaining games by the matchups. So you lose a net of 3% (15% divided by 5 for weighting) but gain a net of 8% (10% divided by 5 multiplied by four), and you increase your net odds by 5%. That results in 8 more wins in a season.

[Ennder]

Keep in mind that is all theory though, you would have to actually do some work to prove it and I'm not buying it. I doubt the difference between Suppan pitching #1 and Gallardo #3 and setting it the other way around is even 1 win over a full season. The only way it might be 1 win is if the #1 happens to get that one extra game pitched.

 

As for Bush on the road, studies have shown that on average all pitchers pitch worse on the road and that interestingly enough BABIP against goes up on the road as well. I don't think it is a stretch of the imagination that some pitchers have more problems on the road than others and for my money he has a big enough sample that I'm buying it. You obviously aren't.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

As for Bush on the road, studies have shown that on average all pitchers pitch worse on the road and that interestingly enough BABIP against goes up on the road as well.

The best explanation I've seen offered for this BABIP phenomenon, for those to whom this is news, is that it probably has to do with the hitters and not the pitchers. Home hitters are more accustomed to the hitting backdrop in their home park than visiting hitters, which tends to increase the likelihood they will make solid contact. This in turn obviously gives home pitchers an advantage over visiting pitchers, since they get to face hitters who are unaccustomed to the hitting backdrop.

[MJLiverock]

I was just looking over the Brewers schedule to start the season and out of the first 34 days there are 32 games scheduled. Not looking like too many days off to skip any starters unless rainouts occur and no double headers or use of the off day are done. Of the 32 games, 12 are at home and 7/20 road games are in domes so no rainouts there.