Suppan will start opener

[nate82]

I'm not liking the rotation for the Cubs series especially the last game. Having Suppan going against the Cubs should be a big no no. Looper, Bush, and Suppan just doesn't sound good at all. I wish the rotation would have went Bush, Suppan, Parra in SF. Then come home to Looper, Gallardo, Bush. Maybe McClung will get a spot start in the beginning of the season. Maybe even skip one of Suppans or Gallardo's starts in the early part of the year.

 

Gallardo is going to be skipped a few times in the early part of this season which is fine by me. He is going to have his pitch and innings count monitored in the beginning of the year hopefully Macha doesn't do a Yost. Parra was suppose to be limited in the first half of the year last season but that didn't really happen.

[kramnoj]

After that... once we get into the season and have to skip starts... they better be skipping Suppan and not anyone else.

 

Why do the Brewers have to skip starts? How many teams have pitchers skip starts as part of a set rotation, as opposed to in response to minor injuries, rainouts, etc? Last year the most games started was 34, and quite a few pitchers did so (looks like 12 per b-ref leaderboards). Based on a 5 day rotation, it looks like pitchers who start in the front of the rotation and don't miss a start get 34 games.

[Ennder]

Generally in April you skip your 5th starter a couple times because of days off, rain outs etc. If we skip anyone it should probably be Gallardo or Parra to limit their innings though.

[brewerguy71]

Wouldnt bother me. I would pay any amount of money to see Tim Lincecum pitch. I only hope he pitches in Milwaukee sometime this summer.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers should skip some of Gallardo's starts so they don't pile the innings on a young guy that didn't get the IP he needed under his belt last season.

 

Soup should be skipped when the top of the rotation is rested & ready to go since he's the lesser of our 5 SP. Parra, Bush, & Looper should all be fine without needing to be skipped more than once or twice (of course assuming no injuries with that statement).

[Roscoe Chill]

Would you rather lose 8-1 where Suppan gives up 7 runs in 6 innings, or possibly lose 1-0 with Gallardo giving up 1 run in 7 innings and having his outing wasted? In the first scenario you have Gallardo the next day against someone not quite as good as Lincecum.

 

I say this because HOPEFULLY, this is the thought Macha is having...throwing Suppan to the wolves. Any time he pitches a gem and matches another team's ace, it's gravy. But in the end the other starters match up more evenly than who they are pitching against. I run a head to head fantasy baseball season where we have pitching staffs instead of individual pitchers, and I mention this because I know how many times #1 guys end up pitching the same days throughout the season, it's almost shocking. I had San Francisco, San Diego, Milwaukee, and Kansas City staffs last year, and on some game days, I had to choose between Lincecum, Peavy, Sabathia, and Greinke, and then on other days I had to choose between Zito, Suppan, and two other rummies. It's really surprising, and I wouldn't know this unless I played in a fantasy league like I do.

 

I don't think that Suppan would be starting game 1 of a Playoff series the Brewers are in if they started today if that makes sense.

 

So, my theory is Suppan is going to be falling on his sword for the entire year so to speak, and therefore making the team better in the long run. Why get blown out by another team's 5th starter, with Suppan, when you can just forfeit (so to speak) against a team's ace by throwing Suppan out there? Like I said, the few times he does well, it's all gravy. Brilliant if you ask me...or just stupidity that will work out.

[TauPentaRei]

man, been a long time! I even forgot my username...

 

I got traded in the off season to the Bay Area. I even bought tickets to game #2 at Candlestick a couple of weeks ago knowing it was their only trip into SF.

 

Imagine my surprise! Talk about catching a lucky break.

 

I was at Wrigley last year for the, um, incident... so I will clear all of my bad juju away before heading over.

 

I, for one, could not be happier that the Trashcan is kicking off 2009! (even though I haven't been able to shake the image of that "fastball" he tried to "blow past" Burrell for 5 months now) ((fresh season, fresh junkballer))

[BrewCrewForever]

(even though I haven't been able to shake the image of that "fastball" he tried to "blow past" Burrell for 5 months now) ((fresh season, fresh junkballer))

 

Priceless. "fastball" and "blow past".

[mrbergmann]

So, my theory is Suppan is going to be falling on his sword for the entire year so to speak, and therefore making the team better in the long run. Why get blown out by another team's 5th starter, with Suppan, when you can just forfeit (so to speak) against a team's ace by throwing Suppan out there? Like I said, the few times he does well, it's all gravy. Brilliant if you ask me...or just stupidity that will work out.

That was my thought all along with Suppan being named the #1 starter. The Brewers do not have a true "ace" this year (at least until Gallardo fills that role, or they trade for Peavy), so winning the games against other aces are going to be tough. Might as well also have that be the game that Suppan pitches. Imagine any 3-game series where Game 1: other team's ace vs. anybody but Suppan, Game 2: other team's #2 vs. Suppan, and Game 3: other team's #3 vs. not Suppan. They would be lucky to take away that final game of the series to avoid being swept. Not a horrible decision, in my opinion.

[Buckethead Brigade]

Who knows, maybe Suppan will surprise us all and actually do good this year? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[bucks2281]

The Brewers have won their past five Opening Day games. I'm not liking our chances of making that six, even though the Brewers have had relative success against Lincecum.

 

I only hope he pitches in Milwaukee sometime this summer.

SF will play here six times, so the odds are good.

[Ennder]

Sadly Suppan is vastly underrated on this forum, not that he is an ace in any meaning of the word but he isn't an auto loss like people are suggesting either.

 

edit : typo

[nate82]

Sadly Suppan is vastly underrated on this forum, not that he is an ace in any meaning of the word but he is an auto loss like people are suggesting either.

I believe you meant to say he is not an auto loss. But I agree Suppan is overpaid but he is not a bad #4 or #5 pitcher he is about league average as a #4 or #5 pitcher.

[OOOverbay]

Why couldn't we start off Bush, Looper, Soup, Yo, Parra? I understand the sacrificial lamb aspect, but Soup certainly hasn't earned opening day status in camp, and I really feel like Bush has. Plus, you know that Suppan is going to get rocked by the Cubs... and no, I don't feel like I'm underestimating him. With this order Soup doesn't see the Cubs, and I actually like our chances with Bush vs. Lincecum. Look at me... I'm already getting frustrated with the manager again.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't understand why people think we should fold for some teams' #1 SP & run out our poorer SP. It's really weird to read about how SF is pitching Lincecum, but poor Brewers. If only we had a comparable pitcher, like Yovani Gallardo. Our offense is far superior to SF's; imo they should be the ones worried about us, not vice-versa.

 

Suppan starting the opening game doesn't make any sense to me (in case that wasn't obvious http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif), and is probably just more Managerlogic, not some grand design from Macha. If it is in fact a strategical move that isn't yet clear, I guess tip of the cap to Macha.

[Invader3K]

Well, the pessimists here can look on the bright side...if Suppan falters in enough of his early starts, the Brewers might be forced to put him in the bullpen.

[Ennder]

Dave Bush has a career ERA over 5 on the road and a 3.75 in Miller Park. I like him at home against the Cubs personally. Looper might not even be ready for his first start so you can't count on him pitching early. He didn't want to open with Gallardo or Parra so he can keep the pressure off of them, a choice that I wouldn't make but I guess I understand his point.

 

That only leaves one person who plausibly should start opening day, Suppan. I completely understand the logic behind this, though I'd personally start Gallardo.

[Fatter than Joey]

Dave Bush has a career ERA over 5 on the road

 

This is meaningless -- Of course you know "The Road" is a composite of all the parks that aren't Miller Park. It only makes sense to look at the particular park, which obviously is a small sample, but in this case, the smaller sample has more relevance than "the road", if you are trying to guess what pitcher will pitch better in a given park or team.

 

If you use your logic -- Bush has a decent 4.31 at Minute Maid in 6 starts -- In any case I do not see any statistical evidence that Bush should not pitch in Minute Maid.

 

I like him at home against the Cubs personally.

 

Unless I am missing something, Whoever starts GM1 in SF will start GM6 against the Cubs -- which could be Bush. I would definitely understand staring Yo at MP.

 

He didn't want to open with Gallardo or Parra so he can keep the pressure off of them, a choice that I wouldn't make but I guess I understand his point

 

I disagree.. I don't know what pressure would be on Parra or Yo in SF. -- SF is a poor offensive team, and I don't think their fans are expecting a lot out of the gate.

 

I completely understand the logic behind this, though I'd personally start Gallardo.

 

I'd start Bush in Game 1, and then have him pitch GM6 at home. That makes the most sense to me.

[sheethead]

My hopes are not high on Suppan reversing his four-year long decline. If I had to bet, I would put his season ERA in the 5.25-5.50 range. Giving him the opportunity to start more games than any other pitcher on the roster seems criminal. Is it because he is the highest paid pitcher (sad) on the roster?

[Fear The Chorizo]

There are enough off days and odd-numbered series for teams throughout the course of a 162 game season that by the time mid-May rolls around, every single team's pitching staff isn't matching up #1's, #2's, #5's etc. There are also enough off days to set rotations up for opponents and to give tired arms extra days off or missed rotation turns.

 

This really isn't a big deal at all. I actually like the mentality of not proclaiming Gallardo and Parra as the Brewers' horses - IP is going to be an important number for those two.

[Ennder]

My hopes are not high on Suppan reversing his four-year long decline

 

His 2007 was probaby better than his 2006 from peripherals, he just pitched in less of a pitchers park with a worse defense behind him. His xFIP has stayed very steady.

 

04 - 4.73

05 - 4.55

06 - 4.86

07 - 4.85

08 - 4.91

 

xERA shows him at

 

 

04 - 4.44

05 - 4.41

06 - 4.59

07 - 4.77

08 - 4.87

 

He is definitely in decline but it isn't falling off the cliff decline like people suggest it is.

[Roscoe Chill]

There are enough off days and odd-numbered series for teams throughout the course of a 162 game season that by the time mid-May rolls around, every single team's pitching staff isn't matching up #1's, #2's, #5's etc. There are also enough off days to set rotations up for opponents and to give tired arms extra days off or missed rotation turns.

 

As I said earlier, you would be surprised how often the slots do match up. And after the All Star Break, you slot them all over again, and again you'd be surprised how often they match up. Sure, it doesn't matchup ALL the time. But from having to pick on a daily basis starting pitchers from different teams for fantasy baseball, like I said, on some days I'd have four horses to pick from, and other days I'd have four #5 starters. I'm not making it up.

[Ennder]

Macha did say that if Gallardo is pitching well he would probably slot him #1 after the all-star break. He just didn't want that pressure on him to start the season.

[rluzinski]

Doing some quick and dirty estimates, I think it matters little who starting pitchers end up getting matched up with. I had 2 pretend teams with averag eoffenses. Team one had a 3.5 ERA pitcher in game 1 and a 5.5 ERA pitcher for game 2. Team 2 had a 3.5 ERA pitcher and a 5.5 ERA pitcher to slot.. It pretty much didn't matter who pitched first.

 

Allao, I question the relevance of Bush's home/road split. That's the kind of stuff gamblers latch onto but I think you can always find odd splits. If anything, I'd think Miller Park would be bad for Bush, as it gives up an above average number of HRs and Bush is a flyball pitcher.

[MJLiverock]

I just hope Suppan doesn't start the home opener. I was mad enough I had to see him trot out to the mound for game 4 of the playoffs, now the next game I attend could be him again vs. the Cubs? I can barely stand being at a Brewer game vs. the Cubs as it is, hopefully not many Cub fans make it in the park.