What is Melvin working on now?

[jcrashnash]

As the Brewers continue their most successful start in recent (and not so recent!) history, I continue to be impressed by how Melvin has put this team together. Which begs the question...what machinations are going on now? What part of the Brewers should be tinkered with now? All brilliant trades of 2 utility players and a prospect for Johann Santana aside, what's realistic? There are enough Turnbow, Jenkins, and Mench haters out there to start this off, but who is out there now that we could work a deal with? The White Sox look ready to wave the flag, but I don't think renting Buehrle or Dye fits in with the "Plan" nor does it match Melvin's style. A lot of my buddies say the Brewers have advanced to the point where they need to become active buyers for a playoff push. "Deal the prospects and land someone who can help!" Who is that someone? I don't want to mess with the infield AT ALL. Our catching tandem is easily better than adequate (Chad Moeller anyone?), our starting pitchers (knock on wood) stack up well from 1-5 with even some of the big spending teams, what does that leave,,,outfield, relief pitching, and utility players. Would we be best served in the bullpen by signing Cordero to a new contract? How about catching the soon to come fire sale @ Cincinatti and grabbing former Brewer David Weathers? In the outfield, I like TGJ a lot. We could move HAll to left, and have our best defensive CF playing in CF and still keep Hall and Hart in the lineup. Could we be at the point where we stand pat unless a deal really blows us away, or should we be agressive buyers?

[litesrn]

I'm a novice here and hardly knowledgable, but there appear to me to be only two areas that could be of concern: a possible trade, an unlikely "biggie," for a right-handed power hitting OF, and another lefty for the pen as an alternative LOOGY to Shouse. Other than that, I don't see any other areas of concern, at least not at the likely price. And given the way Hart is now playing, it wouldn't bother me at all if Melvin did nothing other than finding/adding another LOOGY, but that guy may be Thatcher or Parra.

If Griffey would welcome a visit to Milwaukee and we could make that work, I wouldn't mind.

The way the NL looks now, who's a better candidate than the Crew for the NL berth in the WS?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[PeaveyFury]

Ray King would be a fantastic addition as the loogy we need. His overall numbers are very poor, which might help us buy very low, and Washington is surely in a selling mode.

 

For the record, his overall numbers are very poor because Washington is horribly mis-using him. He actually has more AB's against him by RHB than LHB, which is just a testament to the cluelessness of the Nats staff. Vs LHB: .188/.316/.375/.691; vs RHB: .385/.419/.795/1.213.

[gregmag]

I don't understand the calls to improve the outfield situation. Hall's bat plays very well in CF; in LF it's nothing special. Menchkins hasn't been a perfect solution in LF, but it's unrealistic to think we could improve over their performance via trade, and Jenkins has proved he's still capable of going on a tear. Gwynn has not come close to providing any evidence that he's ready to play regularly. I can see trying to upgrade over Mench as the RH platoon guy or Gross as the 4th OF (although I think he'll be fine in that role), but even there I'm not sure what you're going to be able to find.

 

We could use some help in the bullpen. I have no use for Shouse, and as Brian has pointed out, Wise is fragile. But Villanueva seems to be filling the role of a guy who can give you both high-leverage innings and a lot of innings, and as for the LOOGY problem, we have internal options at AAA that I'd rather try before, say, giving up two of our top ten prospects for some guy who has had two good 50-inning seasons in the last four.

 

The part of the team that I'm most worried about, actually, is the starting rotation. Capuano has been inconsistent and is hurt. Bush has been wildly inconsistent and more bad than good. Suppan looks like he's in a death spiral. I think Capuano will get it together, plus he's a lefty, so he would have to get pretty awful before replacing him became a good idea. Of the other two, I actually have more confidence in Bush long-term, and he's been trending better lately. Suppan right now seems like the weakest link, but with his contract you can't take him out of the rotation. So realistically, the only candidate for replacement by trade is Bush, and again, I'm not sure who we could realistically get who's a good bet to pitch better over the rest of the season. (You could also trade Vargas, of course, but he has hardly been a weakness to this point.)

 

Bottom line: I don't think there's a great chance of improving this team via trade, as things stand now.

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

Greg, we have 7 starters that any team would gladly run out there every 5th day. Granted, 6 now, but Cappy seems ready to come back. I don't know how much better you want it.

[UWRyan428]

I said it before and I'll say it again, we need a young stud catcher...who plays for the Braves right now. I don't carwe which one, though my prefetrence is for a silver slugger.

[gregmag]

Al, you make a fair point, but here's how I'm thinking about it: (1) The Brewers' ideal should be to have a championship-caliber rotation, not just a good enough rotation to win the NL Central. (2) Three of our five starters have shown pretty serious warts this year. (3) Putting Villanueva in the rotation would open up a huge hole in the bullpen, plus he conceivably could fail as a starter. (4) Putting Gallardo in the rotation might not be realistic, either because (as you have argued) he'll have a big challenge adjusting to MLB or because of durability considerations.

 

Despite all that, I did conclude in my earlier post that I don't think improving the rotation by trade is realistic. But I don't think you can look at the performance of our rotation to date and be satisfied. No one has really stepped up and pitched like a #2, and we'll need that in the playoffs. Moreover, Suppan's peripherals over the past few years suggest that he has little margin for error, and his recent performance could reflect a real decline.

 

Greg.

[Bert55]

The only addition I see is the left handed reliever. As for the balance of the team, I am very satisfied with the roster and we have adequate alternatives in the minors.

 

Lastly, I would be very upset if the Brewers decide to trade Jenkins after all he has been through with this team.

 

just my spin.

[rousieboy]

Would you settle for a guy that can get LH hitters out or does it HAVE to be a prototypical LOOGY like Orosco, Stanton, MMyers???

 

Al Reyes can be had to go with our changeup artists and Shouse as guys that can get lefties out...

 

get out of the box...

[jackalope02ca]

He's likely working the phones constantly. Other than 1B you could theoretically upgrade every position. If he can make the team better let's make a deal.

 

Our starting pitching is solid. Although some would like to have 5 Ben Sheet's on the team this won't ever happen. Our staff is as solid as any out there.

 

We need to add one or two arms in the pen and I still think we could upgrade in the OF. We'll see what happens.

[dadofandrew]

Greg, I'd be happy to pick up any SP that would improve the team, be it Mark B, or a more protypical 4th/5th starter to be a long man. However, I would not start mortgaging the future to add another guy.

[And That]

I'd like to add another arm to the bullpen, however I'm not convinced said reliever needs to be left-handed. I really think one of Jackson, Parra, Pettyjohn or Thatcher (woot) will be able to fill that second LOOGY role at merely the expense of calling them up as opposed to the expense of trading someone.

 

For that matter, any one of Balfour, Bray, Dillard, Oxspring or Sarfate could potentially be valuable as a RH option out of the pen. I really hope they at least give Balfour an opportunity this year. If his arm is all the way back, he has filthy stuff.

 

It would be nice to get a right-handed power bat to replace what Mench should have done. If he heats up, there may be no need. I'm not confident he will, though. Basically, someone to compliment Gross.

 

I'd also like to think about adding another catcher. Damien Miller looks done to me, and he's not much less of a liability than Estrada behind the plate. Given that we're going to have an extra roster spot in the playoffs (or, one less pitcher), a guy like Robert Fick would be nice to have around (tho he's not hitting right now).

[brewtank34]

I personally like our OF. Hart and Hall are starting to get hot, and when one or both of them get cold, then I have trust in other players to pick them up.

With that said, I think Mench is a must go if any trades are made...he needs to be part of the deal. (that, and if you can get a bat on the caliber of Griffey or Dunn)

 

We need a better left hander than Shouse if we are going to do anything in the playoffs....yes, that's right. I said Playoffs!!! Make no mistake.

 

Other than that, I agree with an earlier poster that no other trades are needed, and that we have enough talent in our minors to make a serious run for the World Series. It's our year boys and girls!

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/pimp.gif

[jcrashnash]

Is it the consensus, then that the Brewers will stand pat or call up one of their prospects to fill holes? Is everyone comfortable with giving the 8th inning to DBow? What if he implodes again? I know Charlie V has worked quality innings, but if you shift him to the 8th don't you lose him as the potential long man in the pen? His versatility has been just as awsome as his stuff. I don't want Griffey jr's contract, but what about Adam Dunn? How much longer is he under contract for, and what do you think it would take to pry him away from Cincy? Another responder like getting Buerhle but he's made it clear he wants major bucks and wants to pitch for the Cards next year (with their rotation, they'll find a way to sign him, I think) I hate renting players, it rarely pays off (See Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Lee).

[endaround]

Turnbow has had fewer blowups than Cordero.

 

They will be looking for another power arm is my guess, though I think Balfour should replace Spurling before anything else is tried.

 

Don't know why people think most LOOGYs are better than Shouse. They aren't. And Shouse actually has enough of an arm to give you innings (though why they are making him do so is anybody's guess).

[Never Outhustled]

Quote:

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Turnbow has had fewer blowups than Cordero.

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True, but thats only because Cordero bailed out Turnbow numerous times. Nobody bails out Cordero.

 

The Brewers only have 1 reliever capable of a sub 3 ERA. Thats a low number for a contender. They need to add another dominate late inning guy.

[litesrn]

That's not true - TBow's ERA when his 3 blowups are removed is under 2. As Ned and others noted in today's papers, TBow has had a helluva year, but too many folks are letting what happened last year color their thinking, at least IMHO. There isn't a team anywhere in MLB that has a better 8th/9th inning combo than the Crew this year, despite that karmic negative attitude that some here have about our pen.

[berniebrewer4life]

Quote:

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That's not true - TBow's ERA when his 3 blowups are removed is under 2.

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Yea, it's pretty drastic.

 

Turnbow's ERA in the 3 bad starts = 36.00

 

Turnbow's ERA in the rest = 1.48

 

When he blows up, he blows up big. However it has been a while since that happened. I no longer expect him to blow leads like i did at the end of last year. Now, that being said, i would love to see the brewers add another great arm in the pen. Can always use more.

[strawbossisevil]

The other day I decided to compare the 100 win Cardinals from a few years ago, and our current Brewers team.

 

I was surprised to see that our team is better offensively than that Cardinals team was. We have the edge in that regard.

 

So why is our team not a 100 win team then?

 

The answer surprised me a bit. It's been our starting pitching. While I think many would agree that our starting pitching has been good this year, the Cardinal's starters all featured ERAs under 4.13.

 

Carpenter 2.83

Marquis 4.13

Mulder 3.64

Suppan 3.57

Morris 4.11

 

For comparison, here are the Brewers starters numbers:

 

Sheets 3.19

Capuano 4.35

Vargas 4.09

Suppan 4.90

Bush 5.17

 

So, despite our starting pitching being somewhat of a strength, if we want to improve, we need to make it even better (whether through internal improvement or via trade). Adding Gallardo and possibly Villenueva to the rotation might be a step in the right direction, but I still think a package to bring in another stud pitcher, might be what makes this team good enough to be a 100 win team.

[litesrn]

That's all true, but what would it take to add a "stud" starter, especially when almost everybody else also wants one? Is Buerhle, as an example, really better than any of our 3-4-5-6 guys? Is he this year's Don Sutton? I don't think so, hence it makes no sense to mortgage the future just to add a guy who doesn't necessarily improve the team.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that we should do nothing unless we can add another pen lefty on the cheap.

[strawbossisevil]

I don't believe the move should be a short term one, however if we could package Capuano/Bush/Vargas together with a prospect or two and get a pitcher who could be capable of putting up low end ERA numbers for the next few years, I would be thrilled.

 

Our team's offense is only going to get better as our players mature, but if our team ever wants to be elite, we are going to have to have our starting rotation come closer to the numbers that the Cardinals put up a few years back.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a Mark Buehrle either, if he comes cheaply enough so that we don't mortgage our future. Adding him and Gallardo (if he can continue to pitch at the level he did in his last start) to the rotation in place of Bush and Vargas might be the last step in running away with the division and having the depth to compete deep into the playoffs.

 

I think the pitching decisions that Melvin makes in the next few years are going to decide just how competitive the Brewers will be. He has some tough decisions coming up (extending Sheets being the big one), so it will be interesting to see how he intends to keep that rotation competitive.

[UWRyan428]

Bush is to the starters what Turnbow is to the bullpen...

[Riebes24]

My ideal scenario would be to see Austin Kearns and Ray King come aboard, but I'm not sure Washington would want to part with Kearns after signing him to an extension this winter. Still, it seems like Kearns is more of a platoon player, basically a much better Mench. He has a .956 OPS vs. LHP, and he's hitting over .300 on the road.

 

To make it happen, I would offer something like Zack Jack, Sarfate and Iribarren. Not sure if that would be appealing enough, but if not, substitute Dillard for Jackson. Mench would then be DFA'd.

[Boy Jeenius]

I'd just as soon treat Braun and YoGa as our mid season acquisitions and get up and go.

[jcrashnash]

The Poll on the Milwaukee Brewer's home page asks this very question. With the choices between upgrading starters, relievers, adding a bat, or staying pat 40% of the vote is for the bullpen and 32% for staying the course.