Cameron Trade Idea

[chuit11]

I read that the Yankees were interested in Cameron again. (Per Jayson Stark) Would trading him and inserting Chris Duffy into CF make sense. It adds a left-handed bat into the lineup with some reasonable speed. He won't hit the homers Cameron will, but he will steal some bases, hit for a higher average, have a lot less strikeouts, and get on base more.

We need more hitters that are going to hit for a decent average without striking out. Duffy should provide that. In the trade we could look for a pitcher that can help our pitching staff this year, because we could definitely use some better pitching.

[kramnoj]

He won't hit the homers Cameron will, but he will steal some bases, hit for a higher average, have a lot less strikeouts, and get on base more.

 

Why is Duffy going to get on base more than Cameron? Duffy's career OBP in the majors is less than .330 and has been less than .320 the last two years in the majors. Cameron has only had an OBP that low once, in 2004. Duffy's being left handed doesn't add any value.

[endaround]

Cameron is a much better player than Duffy. At this point you'd think the Brewers would ask for Swisher+Kennedy to make it happen.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...I don't know why so many fans on the internet seem to really undervalue Cameron. If the Yankees really do have interest, the Brewers should make them seriously pay up to get him.

[Tbadder]

Cameron for Kennedy and Igawa and Cabrera. We get rid of Cam and a bad contract (which sn't that bad considering production, but one that will give us plenty of mid-season felxibility), they get rid of a bad contract as well. We get picthing depth (maybe Kennedy is even a no. 4/5 pitcher). We do lose a number 2 pick probably, so I'd ask for another mid-level prospect. I might throw in Hall if they'd bite.

[Invader3K]

For what it's worth, Haudricourt reported in his blog yesterday that Melvin told him they aren't discussing trades with anyone right now.

[Ennder]

Cameron is one of the 5 best CF in the NL, Duffy has struggled to make a team. I'm guessing the drop down in production is bigger than you are suggesting. The only reason to trade Cameron was to get money for a pitcher and now that we signed Looper there really isn't a spot to stick a pitcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cameron is one of the 5 best CF in the NL, Duffy has struggled to make a team. I'm guessing the drop down in production is bigger than you are suggesting. The only reason to trade Cameron was to get money for a pitcher and now that we signed Looper there really isn't a spot to stick a pitcher.

 

Leaving defense out of it, I counted 9 NL CF that right now that I'd rather have in my lineup: Ankiel, Reed Johnson, Chris Young, Kemp, Rowand, Beltran, Milledge, McLouth, Spilborgs.

 

Throw in the fact that Cameron is 36 and in the final year of his contract and likely won't be a Brewer in 2010, bats righthanded in a overly righthanded lineup, and is having a pretty uninspired spring (.207/.294/.345) with 10 K's, and makes enough that if his contract was moved the Brewers would have flexibility to add salary later, there are plenty of reasons to trade him if teams are offering a decent deal.

 

Duffy's not a great player, but he could probably hit .275, with some gap power, steal some bases, and give you a lefthanded bat in the lineup and play an adequate CF. That isn't likely to be much of a dropoff from what Cameron would provide.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Briggs usually your posts are way off but in this case I completely agree, that money definitely could come in handy. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[endaround]

Leaving offense a side I count zero. Briggs at this point is so wedded to him being right that things like Duffy is only a small dropoff come out. Duffy projects to put up a line that would be what Cameron could collapse to, and that ignores defense. There were 2 NL CFers more valuable than Cameron last year, Beltran and Victorino.

[kramnoj]

JB, what specific benefit does Duffy being left handed have? Duffy has had a little bit less than a seasons worth of ABs against RH. This is what he has done: .275/.338/.369. Against LH, he is pathetic: .246/.297/.339

 

His being left only gives him the platoon advantage to where he is below average, or worse, as a hitter at CF. I don't see how his being LH is going to have any impact on any other hitters in the lineup.

[Roscoe Chill]

Reed Johnson?

 

Oh no you didn't.

[logan82]

If we would trade Cameron for the dregs the Yankees are offering, we won't need the money at the trade deadline to add a player. We will already realistically be out of the playoff hunt.

[MNBrew]

If we would trade Cameron for the dregs the Yankees are offering, we won't need the money at the trade deadline to add a player. We will already realistically be out of the playoff hunt.

Yes, but if you can catch Brian Cashman at the right vulnerable/desperate moment (granted, "desperate" for the Yankees can mean something entirely different than for the other 29 teams), you could get a pretty good return. Plus, part of JB12's point is the financial flexibility that could well come in handy -- perhaps sooner than later, especially if the bullpen doesn't start making some better things happen consistently, and esp. again when they're not just pitching to other teams' AAA players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Leaving defense out of it, I counted 9 NL CF that right now that I'd rather have in my lineup: Ankiel, Reed Johnson, Chris Young, Kemp, Rowand, Beltran, Milledge, McLouth, Spilborgs.

 

Leaving defense out of it? Wow -- just wow. Hey, leaving offense out of it, Tony Gwynn Jr. could start for any team in MLB! Or if we stick with leaving defense out of it, clearly Prince Fielder would be the best CF option in the leauge.

 

 

what specific benefit does Duffy being left handed have?

 

He's not named 'Cameron', therefore JB doesn't have an unchangeable & inaccurate bias against him.

[ILuvDaBush]

Reed Johnson? Ryan Spillborgh? REALLY? Why not just say "Setting aside defense, I would rather have Prince Fielder roaming center than the Cam-Daddy." And Rowand and Ankiel...they are in the doctor's office more than CF. And Chris Young's ceiling would be Mike Cameron. McLouth...do it again. Lastings.....get your head in the game. So I would rather have Kemp or Beltran, or Lastings if he ever hits puberty and MATURES... Maybe McLouth or Young. But then you factor in defense and then...how can you not like Mike Cameron? He is the embodiment of Gabe Kapler with Jr. Gwynny, splashed with a bit of Barry Bonds, the Pirate. I wish he would have caught the flyball, but I have since forgiven him. And 162 of Mike Cameron is 162 of stellar defense and one of the best combinations of power/speed in the NL.

[Fatter than Joey]

Setting aside defense, I would rather have Prince Fielder roaming center field

 

I think the preferred term would be "grazing", or "free range".

 

Hey, leaving offense out of it, Tony Gwynn Jr. could start for any team in MLB!

 

Actually I doubt it... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[DonMoney4Mgr]

The huge assumption being made by Cameron backers is that he will continue to do what he's done in the past. If he was younger I would agree. However, Cam is 36. That is an age that has slowed down the likes of many great centerfielders. Fred Lynn, Robin Yount, and even Kenny Lofton was a backup at that point in his career just to name a few. Research aside, 10M is too risky for a 36 y/o center-fielder. If the Brewers can dump his contract and get some prospects, they should do it.

[endaround]

Lofton was not a backup at 36.

[TooLiveBrew]

Research aside, 10M is too risky for a 36 y/o center-fielder

 

Without doing research, any point could be argued to be true. The reality is that Cameron at $10M is a very sound buy for the Brewers this season. There have been numerous discussions about this over the offseason -- all start on some form of, 'Man, Cameron isn't worth $10M. We can do better than that.' All those discussions ended with that hypothetical statement being proven completely wrong.

 

 

If the Brewers can dump his contract and get some prospects, they should do it.

 

And do what about CF? Braun can't handle it, and Hart would be hurting you overall there on defense, too.

[nate82]

The only way the Brewers should trade Cameron is if Fielder, Braun, Gallardo/Parra/Bush, and Hart all get injured. Or if the Brewers are able to get someone in return to platoon with Gwynn/Duffy/Nixon. The Brewers would also have to get in return something of more value in terms of a pitching prospect which I doubt would happen.

 

Cameron won't be traded anytime soon and if he does get traded it will be around the trading deadline.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

- all start on some form of, 'Man, Cameron isn't worth $10M. We can do better than that.' All those discussions ended with that hypothetical statement being proven completely wrong

It's hard for something to be proven completely wrong when it hasn't even happened yet.

 

If he ends the year with .235/.320 OB, 20HR, 65RBI, and 150K's, and a slight decline in his defense, is that worth 10M to you?

[trwi7]

even Kenny Lofton was a backup at that point in his career just to name a few.

At 36 Kenny Lofton collected 547 at bats in 140 games and hit .296/.352/.450. He was definitely not a backup. He was a regular starter at age 40 as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

If he ends the year with .235/.320 OB, 20HR, 65RBI, and 150K's, and a slight decline in his defense, is that worth 10M to you?

 

The question has to also include how easy/difficult it would be to replace Cameron's O & D production via trade or free agency. This is where the 'replace Cam, he's not worth it' discussions have usually stopped this offseason. If you are of the belief that trading Cameron away for Melky Cabrera would have provided equal overall value in terms of production on the field at CF, then clearly Melvin missed the boat. However, I don't think that Cabrera will match Cameron in 2009.

 

So, to answer your question... if we could realistically add someone to step in & give at least what Cameron should be expected to contribute for less than $10M, then no the line you describe is not worth $10M. However, this mystery CF just isn't out there. Melvin seemed to get pretty far along into trade discussions with Cashman, and I think that if a suitable CF replacement were out there & 'get-able', Cam would have been sent packing to NYY.

 

Now to refine my own point there, I think it's important to note that your hypothetical line for Cameron is more pessimistic than any of the main projection systems, which forsee a line around .240/.330/.450/.780 or so. Taking into consideration that Cameron is still in great physical condition & has a reputation for being so, I think expecting anything more than a marginal downgrade in defense is being incredibly & unneccisarily pessimistic. Basically, if everything works out as poorly as is plausible for Mike this season will he not be worth the $10M? Sure. But how realistic do you really think it is to think he'll decline even more than any projection system expects?

 

(also, I could care less about his strikeouts/RBI)

 

Cameron Fangraphs page -- for reference on the 2009 projections. And fwiw, on the "Value" tab for Cameron, you can see Fangraphs has him worth $18.5M in 2008. Interesting, huh.

[Invader3K]

Even if he does decline that much and put up that hyptothetical line, assuming his defense is still adequate, it will be a better $10 million spent than what the Brewers paid Gagne. Maybe better spent than what they'll be paying Suppan this year, too. And at worst, he'll be off the books after this season.