Which prospects would you most / least likely trade?

[gregmag]

This sort of debate has started to come up in other discussions, but I think it deserves its own thread. Other things being equal, which of the Brewers' minor leaguers would you be most and least willing to trade to upgrade the team now? Obviously anything would depend on who the Brewers got in return, but what I'm getting at is which minor leaguers do you think are worth relatively more as potential Brewers, and which ones do you think are worth relatively more as trade bait, assuming they could net someone who seriously upgraded the team this year? Who are your presumptive untouchables, your "don't mortgage the future" guys, now that we have graduated (for the moment, at least) our undisputed big two? Whom would you bet against?

 

Right now, I could imagine trading any pitching prospect other than Jeffress. Inman is special, but as Peavey argued in another thread, pitching prospects are volatile, and he could really bring something. Jeffress hasn't established as much as Inman, but that means in part that he hasn't established trade value. Right now, at this moment, I doubt anyone would offer anything for him that would justify a trade.

 

No position player in the high minors (AA/AAA) is close to untouchable. If someone wants to give us something good for Gwynn, Moss, Palmisano, or Rottino, bring it on. I would rather not part with Brantley, but that's just me; Escobar, although tantalizingly young, is someone I would consider dealing. The low minors is where things get interesting. Salome would be hard to part with, given the Brewers' need at catcher. Brent Brewer is the Jeffress of position players -- too much upside to part with, too little track record to get much back. Cain is likely to get a lot better than his numbers look now, which makes him a bad trade gamble.

 

Bottom line: I don't see anyone in the minors now as so close to helping the Brewers that I wouldn't trade him (although I can see pogokat's argument that Inman is such a player, and you could make a case for Parra). What we have, mostly, is a bunch of promising guys in the low minors who are a bit hard to handicap against one another. I wouldn't want to trade more than a couple of those guys total, but with the exceptions above, I'm fairly agnostic about which couple.

 

Greg.

[CportBadger]

The problem is a lot of the prospects are in that area where they don't have enough experience to get enough back, and this time next year they could get back a ton more. I could part with Gwynn, Jackson (not sure if he is still a prospect), and Rottino.

 

I don't know if I would trade Parra simply because I think he has more value right now as a reliever than anything he brings back. I honestly don't see many moves being made this year and I think next year will be the year they are aggressive since it could be the last year of Sheets.

[endaround]

It takes almost nothing to get rental players. Sure if you want Dontelle Willis is will cost something. But I doubt it would take much more than Gwynn to get Buerhle given past rental deals.

[litesrn]

Nothing more than Gwynn for a guy who is likely the hottest "name" pitcher on the market? Huh?

[endaround]

Yes. GM's don't give up much for rental players. You really won't see any top prospects change hands anymore for guys with 3 months left.

[UWRyan428]

Inman, in my eyes, is the epitome of untouchable. Given his perceived value vs. the value of Yo, I would be more inclined to trade Yo (and please don't read that as I want to trade our young phenom). Also, Angel Salome is not to be touched at present, given what his ultimate ceiling is, though he, like Jeffress, is far from the ultimate ends of that potential. But I could be talked into trading Ford or Cain... Brantley could become Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton. But we have excess young outfielders, so even LaPorta (PTBNL) could be trade bait.

[Brian the Automator]

LaPorta can't be a PTBNL until 6 months after he's signed.

[dadofandrew]

The obvious players who are tradeable are any IF within a couple years of the majors, as all seem blocked. The Crew also has a bunch of similar OF's that they can deal from a position of strength.

[Brian the Automator]

This is sort of generic, but there's really no untouchable player in any system... Anyone could be had for the right price, even Gallardo or Inman.

 

With that said, as far as one-year rentals go, I generally would be hesitant to give up a top 10 of the P50 for a rental... I'd probably be willing to deal off a Brent Brewers for an Adam Dunn, or some other top-five potential FA.

[Boy Jeenius]

Darn Brian that's what I was going to say. I heard DM one time say that any minor leaguer is actually treated as a liability. They're investing $$ and getting no return. Anytime you trade a liabilty for an asset it must be considered as a viable trade. There should be no minor leaguer considered untouchable, no matter the perceived upside of the minor leaguer. For every John Smoltz and Jeff Bagwell we read about, there are dozens even hundreds of minor league guys that never panned out.

[UWRyan428]

Why does no one ever bring up the Bartolo Colon trade? I know the Expos almost ceased to exist but they gutted their sysytem for a one year rental.

[foamboy1]

I agree with the comment on Parra. Lefties are batting .095 against him...at the very least he can be a devastating LOOGY...but probably more. Plus, we'd have him for years at bargain prices. He has far more value to the franchise than anything he'd net in return.

 

I think Gwynn's trade value is at an all-time high. He's steadily progressed/improved offensively. He had a nice stint in the major's. I like him...but wonder if that offense is real, or if he's more like his first couple or few years in the minors, not the last 18 months. In any event, I think the team is committed to Hall in center for now and Tony lacks the punch of a corner outfielder. I think he could be moved, especially considering they have so many other CF prospects a couple of years behind Tony.

 

Note: Before I get pounced on as a "Gwynn-hater," I like him and would be intrigued to see if he develops. I just don't see him getting the AB's in Milwaukee for us to make that determination and think that someone will value him higher in a trade.

[Boy Jeenius]

Actually I will pounce on your Parra statement. While I agree that he shows promise and has value, to state that has far more value to the franchise than anything he'd net in return is way too strong. If we were told the Brewers could get Buerhle by including Parra in the deal, they'd be all over it.

[foamboy1]

I don't disagree with your assertion on Parra...if that situation would occur. I think with his injury history that he will not be the centerpiece that nets Buerhle....they'd be looking for Gallardo or someone like that as the centerpiece and Parra would be an intriguing throw-in, which I doubt Milwaukee would consider.

 

That said....I agree that if someone gave us Buerhle or the like for Parra...they'd do it. I just don't think that anyone would make Parra the centerpiece of a deal with his history.

[pogokat]

The only guy i wouldnt trade is inman because i think he could be in the mlb pen ...

 

not saying he should be, but i've seen people suggets we flip him for a reliever, and i think inman would probably help the pen more than most anyone we could trade for...

 

that said, i'd trade him for the right player...but it needs to be a bonafied star..

 

past inman, i'd trade anyone else...i'd be slower to trade someone like salome than one of the outfielders, but i'd trade him...it's so hard to project guys in the low minors...so it's kind of a crapshoot on who will progress in the right direction and who won't...

[Never Outhustled]

Why does no one ever bring up the Bartolo Colon trade? I know the Expos almost ceased to exist but they gutted their sysytem for a one year rental.

 

Sure, the Expos gave up Sizemore, who is awesome now, but the other key to the deal was Brandon Phillips, who flopped badly in Cleveland, and Cleveland ended up getting nothing for him. The Expos also got Ryan Church with Colon, he's a pretty decent player. The Expos ended up dealing Colon later, for 2 promising pitchers, 1 of them was Tomo Ohka, who was fairly productive for them.

[JoeHova]

I like prospects a lot, so I may be more hesitant to trade them than most.

 

However, I can't believe that Melvin actually regards prospects as a liability in a baseball sense. It makes no sense, because prospects are the most necessary building block of a small-market team. Even a back-up level player who can supply a team with 4-5 years of cheap service is saving a team millions of dollars over a comparable veteran player. Meanwhile, guys like Prince are saving the team tens of millions of dollars over a comparable vet.

 

 

Anyway, I wouldn't trade Villanueva, Gallardo, Braun, Salome, Inman, Brantley, Jeffress, or Brewer. I think all of those guys are worth too much if they pan out, and because the Brewers already payed signing bonuses to them, they aren't really costing the team anything right now (they would use the roster spot on someone else anyway).

 

I would trade Jackson, Gwynn, Gillespie, Gamel, Moss, Sarfate without hesitation. I think people may still have interest in some of those guys, but even if they pan out, the Brewers will probably have better options (unlike the guys on my no trade list).

 

The rest of the guys I would play by ear. It would depend on the offer.

[jwaltz]

The Expos ended up dealing Colon later, for 2 promising pitchers, 1 of them was Tomo Ohka, who was fairly productive for them.

 

They got Ohka from the Urbina trade not the Colon trade.

[danzig6767]

Everyone besides Inman would be available for the right trade.Obviously who for and if that player is just a rental would play a huge factor.

[JohnBriggs12]

"I doubt it would take much more than Gwynn to get Buerhle"?

 

Are you kidding endaround? First Buerhle is a better pitcher right now than Willis and has been for most of his career.

 

Your statement also shows a lack of understanding of the markets and current states of those two teams. Florida will move players to dump salary if they drop further behind. The White Sox who are dead already, aren't looking to dump salary. They're looking to rebuild a completely depleted organization and the fastest way to start that process is to deal their most marketable commodity which at this time is Mark Buerhle, rental or no. If you don't think the Sox are in need of a complete overhaul, look at what's happened to their top OF prospects, Anderson and Sweeney, the last couple years. They've failed miseably.

 

Believe me, to Sox fans many of whom I know quite well, dealing Buerhle is like dealing Sheets. He's their most popular player by far. Kenny Williams is not going to go to their fan base and be able to sell Tony Gwynn as a franchise builder. They might not get everything they want, but they won't settle for a single second tier guy.

 

Buerhle isn't the only guy who could be gone. Thome, Dye, Iguchi, and Uribe all could be elsewhere in 2007. They will want replacements back.

 

As for which Brewer prospects I would deal? I wouldn't be looking to deal any major prospect right now, but that could change over time.

[RyDogg66]

Bartolo Colon: June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore.

 

Then the Expos traded him to The White Sox on January 15, 2003: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Jorge Nunez (minors) to the Chicago White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer, and cash.

 

Dumb.

 

re: Ryan Church was acquired in a different deal...January 5, 2004: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Maicer Izturis to the Montreal Expos for Scott Stewart.

[dadofandrew]

The White Sox may well overvalue Gwynn more than others, given their love of no power OF's, but the idea Tony would bring Mark B is silly.

[foamboy1]

Hey...just kidding!

 

I take back 95% of my comments that Parra would not be the centerpiece in a trade because of his injury history, AND I now put him in the category of guys I do not want to trade.

[BrewCrewRising]

Quote:

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I take back 95% of my comments that Parra would not be the centerpiece in a trade because of his injury history, AND I now put him in the category of guys I do not want to trade.

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I'm assuming this is because of the Perfecto?

 

Then again the last guy to throw a perfecto in the PCL was this guy and I'm sure the Pirates don't consider him untouchable.

 

I'd probably like to see what Parra would do for the big club, but as Brian said above, anybody can be dealt for a price, and there are never any assurances as to who does what once they get to the big club.

[endaround]

Yes Buerhle is a better pitcher than Willis to a decent degree. That said Willis is under contract past this season. The trade market for guys up and the end of th year just hasn't been that great with the only exception being the way Minaya depleted Montreal when he was trying to get a job somewhere else after the Expos kicked the bucket. The Brewers traded a certain rental player last year to the Rangers. The Rangers gave up a deposed closer with a high ERA, a part time outfielder and an oft injured AAAA player. Yes Cordero working out great makes it look different, but to Texas they gave up almost nothing of real value.

 

Gwynn is a guy who could start for the Sox right now. They may want a Philip Hughes and if they do they should just hang on to Buerhle for draft picks and hope Williams chooses wisely.