BP's top farm systems 1 - 30 - Brewers at 15

[homer]

Baseball Prospectus is ranking all farm systems 1 - 30. Today is the bottom half and it should be of great joy to Brewer fans that 1) the brewers are not on the list, 2) four of their division mates are (Cincy, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston).

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8629

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8633

[Scooter1027]

Well, we weren't in the bottom half, but we were 15th, the worst of the top half teams. To sum it up:

 

He likes Escobar's superior defense, thinks Jeffress could become elite, and calls Salome an "offensive monster"

 

Dings us for Lawrie moving out from behind the dish, for Gamel's error rate, and for "precious little pitching"

 

He thinks that Escobar, Gamel, and Salome all could get enough big league time this year to lose propsect status, and at that point our system will be solidly into the bottom half of the league.

[MadScientist]

I don't know what BP's cutoff is, but I don't see Escobar, Gamel and Salome getting more than a September call-up barring injury. They all have some work to do. As for when this batch is gone, the ranking will depend on the development of the next batch, Cain, Jeffers, Lucroy, Lawrie, Scarpetta, etc.

[TheCrew07]

No mention of Cain who may crack the lineup next year or Lucroy? I'm not a BP subscriber anymore so I'm unable to read anything regarding the Brewers.

[Scooter1027]

It was just a brief synopsis, he basically just listed 3 things that could make our system jump up, and 3 reasons it could regress.

[homer]

I think the thing that dings the Brewers the most is the lack of any 5 star top ten talent. Escobar is about it and he's like top 20.

[endaround]

Did anybody ever really expect Lawrie to stay a catcher?

[TheCrew07]

Not me, I was hoping he'd get moved so he could progress as fast as hit bat will allow.

[Never Outhustled]

Not me, I was hoping he'd get moved so he could progress as fast as hit bat will allow.

I agree. In fact, if they would have kept him at catcher, I would have moved him down 8-10 spots on my board.

Ranking our system 15th is lauphable. It goes to show how little these guys follow the minors. They don't know the guys that weren't high draft picks. Cain's ability and production are just as good as the CF prospects that are ranked in the top 50. We have a bunch of relief pitcher prospects. We have a track record of having our guys actually turning out at the big league level.

[pete]

Maybe there should be an analyst factor like a park factor. Think of 15th as more like 9th or 10th. I know some of the stuff written by Kahrl has been flat out whacky, like trading 3 top prospects to get Peavy's 60 million dollar contract or the preseason preview. Goldstein and Kahrl are both from Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if they shared the common regional view that the Brewers are sort of the irritating country bumpkins who will never amount to anything.

 

 

 

Here is a video of them from last season on a book tour: http://fora.tv/2008/03/10/2008_Baseball_Prospectus#chapter_01

[Mass Haas]

There are so many Brewer top prospect lists available this time of year, this one's done better than most:

 

Milwaukee Brewers Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No's 1 - 5

Milwaukee Brewers Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No's 6 - 15

 

As far as BP having the Brewers at 15, given the severe dearth of starting pitching prospects at the upper levels behind Jeremy Jeffress, 15 is actually a bit of a gift, if anything. 15's about right.

[TheCrew07]

All it would take is for Braddock to emerge as a dominant player again and 2-3 of last year's picks (I'm lumping Scarpetta in that group) to have good seasons and the system is strong pitching wise again.

[Never Outhustled]

As far as BP having the Brewers at 15, given the severe dearth of starting pitching prospects at the upper levels behind Jeremy Jeffress, 15 is actually a bit of a gift, if anything. 15's about right.

The rankings should be about talent, not balance. Systems that are pitching heavy should be penalized in the rankings for that, as the wash out rate for pitching prospects is much higher.

 

The Brewers had the #1 ranked systen in 2004 according to BA, and in hindsight that was absolutly correct. We had no pitching then either.

 

The Brewers system should rank higher than 15th based on their AAA prospects alone.

[jjfanec]

Scooter1027 wrote:

He thinks that Escobar, Gamel, and Salome all could get enough big league time this year to lose propsect status, and at that point our system will be solidly into the bottom half of the league.

It is funny that he points that out because I would not guess Escobar, Gamel and Salome are going to get much time in the bigs this year unless there is an injury to JJ, Bill Hall or Kendall. And if those guys do not lose their prospect status we should be one of the top five systems in baseball next year. With guys like Ordorizzi, Scarpetta, Braddock, Nieves, Peralta, etc we have young arms with the potential to break out this year. Pair them with the bats we have including the previously mentioned trio who I doubt will lose prospect status, and then guys like Cain, Green, Lucroy, and Lawrie. This system looks to be in great shape to take a big step up not down.

[Never Outhustled]

This system looks to be in great shape to take a big step up not down.

Ya, I agree, and then throw in the fact the Brewers have at least 5 of the top 74 picks in the June Draft. Thats awesome considering they've built this farm system without having any extra picks until last year.

[RobertR]

Considering how many questions there are surrounding the Brewers' top prospects, Escobar's bat, Gamel's glove, Lawrie's position, Jeffress' control, Salome's body type and defense, Cain's upside, etc. I think BP was right on at #15. There are no 5 star, can't miss prospects in the Brewers' system. At least not yet. They're certainly not an elite organization, although they appear to have good position player depth. A potential star is very valuable, and the jury is still out on the upside of many of the Brewers.

 

Heck, Baseball America has the Brewers with 4 top prospects which is pretty average. Especially considering only one is ranked in the top 25 (Escobar), one is ranked in the group 26 to 50 (Gamel), and two are ranked in the group 76 to 100 (Lawrie and Jeffress). 15 probably isn't too bad considering that the bottom teams (Astros, Nationals) are really bad.

 

The Brewers are neither an elite farm system or a horrendous one. But somewhere in the middle to maybe slightly above average based on depth.

 

Robert

[TheCrew07]

Very good points Robert... but I would counter that there is simply no way there are 50 position players with a better bat than Salome... Weeks and Fielder were (in one case still are) horrible defenders in the minors and it didn't hurt their prospect status at all. Neither player put up the numbers that our latest crop did in AA either. I know our prospects have warts, but there's some bias in play here in regard to Salome. It seems to me that the criteria for which players get dinged for defensive issues on these prospect lists is somewhat arbitrary in nature. Maybe they are valuing defense more than they did in the past but it seems to me that defense is largely ignored the more toolsy a player is, or the more power potential a player has...

 

I understand the stardom issue, but I'll take the depth of the system now over the system that was headlined by Weeks and Fielder every single time. Can't miss prospects... is there such a thing? Delmon Young anyone? Gamel is lower than he should be, he played injured most of the second half and still put up better numbers than his healthy peers for the season. This time next year we'll be talking about how Gindl is too short to be a prospect... what does it matter if these kids can play, sometimes we look too hard for flaws.

 

Gamel will hit, Salome will hit, and this year will tell us definitively about Escobar, if he was "lucky" or if his offensive game is coming around. I have faith in Cain, I love Lucroy, and Brewer is turning me into a believer again. I want to feel good about Jeffress and Braddock but I honestly worry about both of them and we desperately need more physical talent in the rotation. I like guys such as Rivas, Seidel, and Peraird because they have the tools but none of them has broken out yet. That doesn't even take into account last year's draftees or players like Dennis who've flown under the radar thus far. (I want to throw Trejo in that mix but that lame knee injury! Right now it's just a man crush but I still have hope)

 

We're still top heavy with bats in that there's no question, but we have very solid depth in pitchers and position players in the system, and there are potential all-star players in that mix of position players at the top of the system. At the very least I believe Salome, Cain, and Lucroy are under rated by national publications at this time, and Green doesn't get enough love because he's not toolsy. Lucroy in particular is puzzling, because he's made such strides defensively since he was drafted and yet his offensive accomplishments have been dismissed because he was an advanced college bat. He's a C! Give the young man some love!

[RobertR]

Gamel will hit, Salome will hit

Yeah, but will they field? If Salome can't catch, he can't play anywhere else. How valuable a hitter is Gamel if he's relegated to first base?

 

I agree that in the best case scenario some of the Brewers top prospects could be underrated and I really like the depth. But, there's flameout potential as well and that has to be factored in. The Brewers top prospect might turn out to be a #8 hitter, for instance.

 

And, basically, the elite organizations have depth and star potential. Tampa, Oakland, Texas, Florida, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Baltimore. The Brewers minor league system isn't in this class. But it's in the mix with the next tier. And it's quite possible that the only difference between the Brewers and the top of the tier they're in may be Matt LaPorta. Frankly, I think which tier an organization is in is a lot more important than hair splitting over rankings. I don't think there's a huge gulf between the Brewers and 3 or 4 teams ranked ahead of them.

 

And, I think it's a definite good sign that the system which has been depleted a bit due to trade and graduation only falls down to #15. Especially since it's been competitive the last few years. They'll restock with a lot of early picks this year and should move back up if they draft well.

 

Robert

[homer]

Weeks and Fielder were (in one case still are) horrible defenders in the minors and it didn't hurt their prospect status at all.

 

The difference is Weeks can/could switch to another position and Fielder's defense isn't as big an issue at 1st base as it is at catcher. I forget exactly where catcher is on the defensive spectrum but it's near the top (if not the top) in terms of hardest/most important.

[logan82]

C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B

 

Hardest position for defense on the left, easiest on the right. Usually players will move left to right. Rarely does a player move right to left. Many times the catching position is left out because it requires such a specialized set of skills. Also I don't think many catchers can easily move to and play 2B, SS, or CF. I know it happens, but not very often.

 

Fielder is already moved to the least valuable defensive position. I know there are adjustments used to value players depending on what position they play. I am just throwing numbers out, but I think around -10 of defensive value for playing 1B and +10 for playing catcher are figured in before even evaluating the quality of defense. A bad defensive catcher is still more valuable defensively than a bad defensive 1B.

 

I think you are right that we could make Weeks more valuable defensively if we moved him to another position. The problem is that there really isn't any place to move him to.