Fangraphs organizational rankings

[logan82]

They started at the bottom and are up to #21 with 4 teams in our division already. Astros(28), Pirates(26), Reds(24), Cardinals(21). Brutal review of the Astros. Not much surprising though. Link

 

Rips into the cheapskate Marlins owner as well.

[ILuvDaBush]

So it's down to the Cubs and the Brewz. Considering the ownership situation of the North-siders, I would imagine we should be the class.

[hawing]

Thanks for the link. I certainly hope a good bit of time passes before they reach the Brewers. And of course, the more distance between STL and MIL, the happier hawing is. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[hawing]

They're up to #8 and haven't mentioned the Brewers yet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[MJLiverock]

I see the Cubs just came in at #7

[hawing]

I see the Cubs just came in at #7

woo-hoo, ahead of the Cubs! By my reckoning, that leaves the New York teams, Boston, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. From the #7 post:

all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack - there's probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.

[logan82]

hawing wrote:

woo-hoo, ahead of the Cubs!

Dang it Hawing, you beat me to it. Not that the rankings mean much... Still nice to be ahead of the Cubs.

[ILuvDaBush]

It probably has most to do with the ownership situations (though the minor league talent level also has to have an impact). Losing Jack Z. has to negatively impact our front office ranking (A+ to A-). Our ML talent is probably of the A- variety. And yet I can't help but smile at the thought that we are truly an elite organization in ML baseball. Some 5-8 years ago, wearing the Brewer blue was tantamount to a scarlet letter. Now...ice-breaker. Telling someone that Rickie Weeks had a higher OBP than Ryan Braun last year...priceless.

[CheezWizHed]

hawing wrote:

woo-hoo, ahead of the Cubs!

Dang it Hawing, you beat me to it. Not that the rankings mean much... Still nice to be ahead of the Cubs.

ANYTIME you beat the Cubs for ANY reason its good! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

We came in at #6.

[TooLiveBrew]

Overall: A-

 

A smart front office, a talented young core that's ready to win, and a very good selection of minor leaguers give the Brewers a chance to be good and stay good for quite a while. Their capital is a bit lower than most of the rest of these elite franchises, which drags down their grade a bit, but they have a front office that can win with an $80 million payroll, especially given the cost controlled talent already in the organization. The Brewers are going to be fighting for a playoff spot for the foreseeable future, and they've earned their way into contention

That makes me so happy I almost want to try to cram it in as my signature.

 

Surprising to see a B- grade for Ownership... seems harsh, especially when the only critique was Attanasio's involvement in the Yost firing, and that Dave Cameron followed up by saying, "overall, he's mostly stayed out of the baseball operations team's way." Oh well, I'll just have to be happy with the combo of an A- for MLB talent & an A- for minor league talent http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JoeHova]

I think he's dinging ownership for their lack of ability to field a $100+ million payroll. I think it's fair to do so, to some extent, because they have to compete with teams who can do that and that has to be factored in somehow. It's more fair to put that on the guy signing the checks than the front-office, imo, even though it's really the fault of neither.

[Tbadder]

That just feels good (the review). And I agree, the organizational processes that are in place seem to be both effective and professional. A lot will hinge on the second wave of talent coming in 2010, and of course this year's and next year's draft as the new men in the organization must make correct decisions and keep the pipeline going. The pipeline can never shut down, even for a while--that's black gold, texas tea, to quote a famous man.

[sheethead]

This is a good slot for the Brewers. When I think about how far they have come the last four years, it reminds me of the 92-96 Packers, and we all know how that turned out. Hopefully a Peavy-type deal during the season can turn that "-" into a "+"

[fondybrewfan]

I thought the grade was rather appropriate.

 

I guess I am a little apprehensive about our minor league system though, only because the next crop of players in the next 1-3 years seems far less talented than our current group so we may be replacing the Fielders, Hardy's, and Weeks' of the world with less talented players. I don't view Gamel, Escobar, Jeffress, etc in near the same category as Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, etc when they were all coming up at the same time.

 

But that is probably nitpicking at this point, the Brewers organization is in a pretty good spot right now and I am not going to complain about being a perpetually 85+ win team.

[joepepsi]

That's a good point fondybrewfan. I think it was last offseason Bill James wrote the Brewers had the best group of young major league talent in baseball. It's unrealistic to expect the current minor leaguers to be as good. The current team feels comparable to the 78-83 team. The minor leaguers seem more like the talent that came a decade later.

[endaround]

I think the talent in the minors is there but I think people need to realize that having as many homegrown 4+ win players (Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, and Hart if he rebounds and Parra if he improves) is an amazing thing. I don't see that coming up. Salome if he can stick at catcher would be one. Lawrie looks like another. Jeffress has potential but he's really far away right now.

[TheCrew07]

The current team feels comparable to the 78-83 team. The minor leaguers seem more like the talent that came a decade later.

That seems to be the prevailing notion around here, that these guys aren't as good... why? Our system was rated #1 because we had Weeks and Fielder... what has the hype done for Weeks? Hardy was never an offensive prospect, in fact this time last year many people around here were claiming that he'd never hit 20 HRs again in a season, actually people were making that claim into June... Hart was never highly thought of, even though he was the Southern League MVP, there was a minority percentage of posters on his bandwagon. 2 years ago people had written off Parra, he wasn't on anyone's radar except for the stalwarts on the Minor League forum. Is anyone going to replace Fielder's bat? No... so what? We've never had 2 C prospects like we have, Cain is as talented as they come, Escobar is very talented, Gamel and Green aren't as toolsy as Cain, Escobar, and Brewer, but their bats will play.

 

With a little good fortune for the organization Jeffress and Braddock could break out and this time next year we would have 2 pitchers with top of the rotation potential in AAA. We're due, due more than Parra making it back for all of the arms that have flamed out the last 10 years, the law of averages has to swing back in our favor at some point.

 

I really like 6 of our SPs in the 2 levels of A ball, we have some solid relief propsects in the pipeline, there's another wave of position talent coming in that A to A+ group as well. There's plenty of reason for optimism.

 

Cain may never be better than Hamilton, but to start drawing conclusions and making comparisons before these young men even have a single MLB season under their belts seems misguided to me.

 

There's no way Fielder is a 4 win player unless he makes tremendous strides with his defense this season.

[endaround]

Hardy was an offensive prospect. I don't know why you keep saying he wasn't. Fielder was a 5 win player in 2007.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

There's no way Fielder is a 4 win player unless he makes tremendous strides with his defense this season.

Relative to replacement level (which I assume is what endaround meant), sure there is. He was at least that valuable in '07. Fangraphs has him at +4.9 wins that season, even with -9 run glovework.

 

Yeah, he stinks in the field. Lots of 1B do, since along with LF (DH too if you're an AL club), it's really the only place to stash world class hitters that happen to be slow and/or clumsy, and there are lots of those guys. That drags down the baseline for comparison. You've got to be really atrocious to be much worse than 10 - 15 runs worse than the average 1B, because the average 1B just isn't a very good defender.

[tyguy20204]

You guys are right to call out TheCrew on his assessment of Fielder/Hardy, but I have to agree with his argument that some of our prospects may be undervalued.

 

Remember, you can't simply say "BA ranked our system 15, and so we have the 15th best farm system in the majors." The Brewers in recent years have a track record of churning out quality players, and this has to be taken into account.

 

The highest Ryan Braun ever placed on a BA Top 100 list was #26, behind players such as Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Brandon Wood, Andy Laroche, Billy Butler, and a slew of other players that are promising but still in the minors.

 

The highest JJ Hardy ever placed on the BA Top 100 list was #28. Guess who preceded him that year? That's right, it's our old friend Jose Capellan at #25.

 

Corey Hart never placed in the Top 100.

 

That's not to knock BA, who do the best they can at predicting outcomes in an uncertain field. I'm just saying that I'll continue to trust the Brewers scouting department until they give me reason not to.

[twobrewers]

Lawrie, Gamel, Escobar, Cain and Jeffress don't have to live up to the expectations of Fielder and Weeks. The Brewers can sign the current players that are special to long term deals. The minor league players will simply be the next wave to help fill in when the current roster is lacking.

 

And I doubt we are just going to lose Hardy or Fielder. We will at least get two very high draft picks - and quite possibly a bounty of players in a trade.

 

A lot of average MLB players playing for the minimum salary is a VERY good thing. (That way we can avoid paying Looper $5 million, Suppan $14 million and Counsell $1 million)

[TheCrew07]

Hardy was an offensive prospect. I don't know why you keep saying he wasn't. Fielder was a 5 win player in 2007.

Hmm.... after he was drafted

 

Hardy has such a good arm that some teams considered drafting him as a pitcher out of high school…Though they got him in the second round, they consider Hardy a first-round talent. He has good genes, as his father Mark played professional tennis and his mother Susan golfed on the LPGA tour. Hardy has superior instincts and skills on defense, including a great arm and range. He has soft hands and is fundamentally sound beyond his years…many believe he merely needs more experience with a wood bat. He doesn't have much foot speed to speak of but gets good jumps on the ball and makes plays other shortstops don't.

After 2002... BA and BP

Offensively, he's a gap-to-gap hitter and the Brewers are confident his power will increase as he matures. His work ethic and personality are outstanding. With his first full pro season complete, Hardy embarked on a weightlifting program designed to increase strength. Learning to draw walks also would help boost his offensive productivity. He could also add some loft to his swing

There are some things to like here. Hardy's a tremendous and graceful athlete, with great range and a powerful arm at shortstop. He hit for some average at High Desert, with a few doubles as a teaser for more power in the future. He didn't walk a lot, but he put the ball in play, and wasn't fooled by occasions when he wasn't thrown fastballs. Hardy's young enough to develop his offensive skills, and he plays defense well enough that he'll probably be a talented shortstop in the majors. He's not going to be Alex Rodriguez, but Hardy could turn into a very good ballplayer.

After 2003 BA and BP

 

Scouts were uncertain about his hitting ability when he was an amateur, but he has surprising pop and rarely strikes out because of his plate discipline. What the Brewers really like about Hardy, however, is his competitive nature. His makeup is off the charts. Hardy sometimes gets long with his swings and goes into funks at the plate…His intense nature causes him to wear down at times

Even for the Brewers, they've been ambitious in terms of how they've pushed Hardy up the chain. It's easy to understand why though… He missed three weeks with a hip injury, which some speculated cost him the Southern League MVP to Corey Hart. Comparisons to shortstops named Alex Gonzalez are being bandied about, but Hardy should turn out better than either one, as opposed to what everyone wishcast for them for a few years (ourselves being among the guilty). PECOTA doesn't like Hardy, but he's got a little bit of power, improving patience, and he might be the best defensive shortstop in the minors.

PECOTA really disliked Hardy, forecasting a .225/.288/.341 line if he were to play in the majors during 2004, but that's understandable given his one half-decent minor league offensive season. Hardy would move on to Triple-A Indianapolis for his final season in the minors, but his campaign would be cut short by torn labrum:

Geez, does that remind you of anyone? I was dead on accurate about his bat, many people argued for Hall over Hardy, and many people said last year he'd never hit 20 HRs again. JJ was a defensive prospect first and developed his offensive game as he moved up the chain, he had 2 disappointing campaigns with the bat, it's all there at baseball reference. He really came on when he repeated AA and was hitting well at AAA before the shoulder injury... sounds exactly the career path of a certain latin SS up to this point, I just hope Escobar stays healthy.

 

As far as Fielder goes, I understood that endaround meant above replacement level, isn't that a given? If he hits over 50 hrs he's probably a 4 win player, but he wasn't last year, and there's simply no way to quantify the negative impact of his defense on the players around him. A 5 gallon pail on a stick might scoop more balls... I'd like a track record of at least 2 consecutive years before I'm willing to qualify someone +X wins, in Fielder's case a 1.1, 4.9, and 2.6 don't exactly make him a 4... I'd agree he's worth 3ish, but he's still getting more credit than he deserves defensively.

[Ennder]

For what its worth I don't think Hardy has hit his ceiling yet. He'll hit 30 HRs at least one time.

 

relative to replacement level (which I assume is what endaround meant), sure there is. He was at least that valuable in '07. Fangraphs has him at +4.9 wins that season, even with -9 run glovework.

 

Fielder is also one of the worst baserunners in baseball coming in at roughly 7 runs below replacement on the base paths. Between the baserunning and fielding he really does have to keep up monster offensive stats to stay in the 4+ win range.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

A 5 gallon pail on a stick might scoop more balls...

 

As far as scooping throws is concerned, MGL looked at this from 2000-2008 and found that the true talent spread between the very best scoopers and very worst scoopers is on the order of 4-6 runs per season. Fielder doesn't even show up on the list of the worst guys. I'll grant that he's lousy at it, but it's just not a very important skill. It's highly unlikely that he gives back more than 1/3 of a win or so in this department.

I'd like a track record of at least 2 consecutive years before I'm willing to qualify someone +X wins

 

Fair enough, but then everybody except Hardy from endaround's post fails this test, so I'm not sure why you singled out Fielder from the original list to quibble with. Braun has yet to have a 4 win season at all (3.9 last year).

 

.............................

 

Fielder is also one of the worst baserunners in baseball coming in at roughly 7 runs below replacement on the base paths. Between the baserunning and fielding he really does have to keep up monster offensive stats to stay in the 4+ win range.

 

I'm assuming you're thinking of Dan Fox's EQBRR from BP. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think those are runs below average, not below replacement. Now, it might turn out to be the case that a replacement player actually IS an average baserunner, since MLB teams aren't exactly using baserunning as a vital criteria to make decisions about who to keep out of the "freely available talent" pool, but I haven't seen any objective attempt to determine whether that's true. If replacement players aren't average MLB baserunners, then you can't simply subtract those runs from Fielder's Fangraphs win value, because the replacement level figure they're using would have to be recalibrated if they added non-SB baserunning. I don't guess that a replacement level baserunner would be more than a couple of runs worse than an average baserunner in any event, though, so your point is taken.

 

At the end of the day, I suppose it is fair to say that unless Fielder improves defensively OR he puts up another monster offensive season (like 2007), he is probably more of a 2.5 - 3.5 win player instead of a 4 win player. I guess it just doesn't seem unreasonable to me to think that one (or perhaps both) of those things might happen. It would be pretty unusual for a hitter to have the best season of his career at 23.