National League Rookie of the Year (merged with SmartBall's tulo thread and craigharmann's "Braun and Yo for ROY?" thread)

[SeriesFinale]

Just a reminder that religious discussion is not allowed here; so in order for this thread to remain open, discussion will have to be limited to Tulowitzki's ROY bid or how blatantly biased this writer is.

Fair enough, but it really blows my mind that the RMN editors allowed Lincicome to even intimate it.

[Fatter than Joey]

Second, even if Tulowitzki's defense is average for a SS, he has a clear edge over Braun.

 

I found myself looking forward to seeing the Brewers hit grounders his way, that kid has an absolute howitzer.

 

I think that the biggest mismatch in all of sports would be Tulowitzki v. Estrada.

 

I agree with Russ -- a very good case could be made for Tulo getting the ROY -- he is playing a much harder position much better, but he won't win it.

[adambr2]

I actually e-mailed him, just had to. Here was what I said:

 

Your article about Troy Tulowitzki being the clear choice for Rookie of the Year reeked more of homer sports journalism than any article I've ever seen. I can only conclude that you were simply trying to play to the hometown fans rather than this being something you really believe.

 

Tulowitzki is a nice player and in another year, would probably earn ROY. Tulowitzki isn't in Braun's league.

 

The fact that he had 40 more games to accumulate his stats this year, let's compare stats, but instead of picking and choosing the ones that you did, let's consider the ones that Braun leads in, too.

 

Braun: .328 AVG 30 HR 79 RBI 1.020 OPS 14 SB

 

Tulowitzki .290 AVG 19 HR 80 RBI .820 OPS 7 SB

 

These numbers aren't even comparable, and they don't even take into consideration that Tulowitzki plays at Coors Field, one of the most hitter friendly parks in the country. Tulowitzki's splits differ greatly home vs. away, while Braun's are virtually identical. Tulowitzki's fielding abilities aren't nearly enough to make up for Braun's landslide victory in almost every offensive statistical category.

 

This isn't even a race, and believe me, you'll see this when the NL ROY voting ends up in an absolute landslide for Braun.

 

Also, using Tulowitzki turning an unassisted triple play had to be the biggest reach I've ever seen for trying to come up with something to support him. That's like trying to tout a guy for MVP on the grounds that he hit an inside-the-park grandslam during the year. Come on. You can do better than that.

[brettac1]

Tulowitzki is an amazing defensive player, possibly the best SS in the NL behind Adam Everett. And it does make a difference that he's an SS, as Russ mentioned.

 

Even with that Braun is better than him, and I'd expect him to win the award quite easily, even with the politicking that guys like Ringolsby will do on behalf of Tulo. I'm just really glad that both of the guys that I wanted the Brewers to draft in '05 have turned out to be excellent players.

[pitchleague]

adam, I'd very interested to see what you get as a response--if you even get a response.

[saget]

Braun's VORP - 51.0

 

Tulo's VORP - 29.5

 

How could you even argue this?

[brettac1]

Well, VORP doesn't take defense into account, and like I said, Tulo is a great defensive player.

 

EDIT: Though I should say that Tulo's great defensive advantage probably doesn't make up for over 2 wins of offense. It's much closer than it looks when you're looking strictly at offensive production, that's all.

[homer]

"Well, VORP doesn't take defense into account, and like I said, Tulo is a great defensive player."

 

Yeah you'd probably have to use WARP (wins above replacement player) but those don't come out until after the season I think.

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun's VORP - 51.0

Tulo's VORP - 29.5

How could you even argue this?

 

Braun 21 Errors and .896 fielding pct -- has cost us a lot of runs. He plays an easier position than Tulo.

 

Brauns' Defense is far from trivial -- His defense (and the team's as a whole) has cost us a lot of wins.

[gregmag]

Just a reminder that religious discussion is not allowed here; so in order for this thread to remain open, discussion will have to be limited to Tulowitzki's ROY bid or how blatantly biased this writer is.

 

 

I have to say, this really bothers me. I understand the need to police posts for civility, and I understand the decision to preempt discussions of religion out of a categorical concern that such discussions too often undermine civility. But calling someone out for antisemitism isn't a discussion of religion any more than calling someone out for rape is a discussion of sex. The civility concern, as I understand it, implicates arguments about religious substance -- this or that spiritual belief is silly or profound; this or that religious ritual is beneficial or pernicious. Fine. But this ain't that, and I think it matters, because fostering vital discussions of the kind we have here means limiting censorship to what the moderators conclude is absolutely necessary. I understand lines often are hard to draw, and I appreciate the effort the mods make. Usually your decisions are understandable, and mostly IMHO they're clearly right. But with all due respect, this one is nowhere close to right. If you're going to stand by this, then nobody should even mention the nickname "Hebrew Hammer," and you should have prohibited anyone from even noting the fact that Jeff Suppan's advocacy against embryonic stem cell research in MO was related to his Catholicism (which I know was mentioned here, because this is where I learned about it).

Oh, and Tulo isn't half the hitter Braun is. Braun could play every defensive inning in a straitjacket, and Tulo still wouldn't have a prayer -- um, that, is, a snowball's chance in he -- well, you get the idea.

Greg.

 

[Team Canada]

His defense (and the team's as a whole) has cost us a lot of wins.

 

I think you're probably overstating your case there. First, how many games where he committed an error did we even lose, and how many of those could you say we directly lost because of the error? It's probably not that many, surely not "lots".

[brewers19]

Gregmag, I'd rather not derail this thread, so I'm going to make my point brief and you can PM me if you still have an issue with it.

 

I'd much rather err on the side of caution with this type of stuff than have another episode of what happened earlier this summer. I feel that a discussion about a debatable accusation of anti-Semitism against a sportswriter is not something that is particularly appropriate or beneficial for this board. So I decided to nip it in the bud.

[RyDogg66]

Let the debate begin - er, continue....

 

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-rockies&tid=8356

[mothershipconnection]

Let the debate begin - er, continue....

 

From that thread:

Tulo has had a gold glove year at shortstop, leads qualified rookies in runs created and almost all of the other sabremetric offensive stats. (ESPN site)

 

What sabermetric stats is he talking about. Higher walk rate? BR has Braun's RC at 88 and Tulowitzki at 85. Park adjusted OPS+ is 159 for Braun, 105 for Tulowitzki.

Oh, I went to espn.com before posting and now I see, he included only "qualified" rookies, which excludes Braun, Pence, Loney, and Hamilton - all of whom have a higher OPS.

 

You can't even begin to make an argument for Tulowitzki based on offensive performance, it's just untenable, especially when you look at Tulowitzki hitting like a bum outside of Coors (.672 OPS - worse than the road OPS of Craig Counsell).

[Ennder]

His defense (and the team's as a whole) has cost us a lot of wins.

 

I think you're probably overstating your case there. First, how many games where he committed an error did we even lose, and how many of those could you say we directly lost because of the error? It's probably not that many, surely not "lots".

I'm sure his defense has caused us 3 losses. That is where I draw the line though. Tulo is leading in win shares. Braun has a 51 VORP, Tulo has a 30 VORP so that is a clear Bruan winner.

 

If Tulo played for another team I could sort of see the point to this discussion but his offense is almost 100% a product of Coor's field. He is Ryan Theriot in a normal park and isn't anywere near the discussion for ROY.

[flosses like fossas]

But on actual comparison with Tulo-witzki, going into Sunday's games, judging the whole season and not some fanciful projection of it, Tulowitzki has more RBI, more runs scored, more hits...

 

this is the real gem for me, right after pointing out the legendary caliber of braun's simulated full season, dude reins in his argument to point to three stat totals that tulowitzki leads almost entirely because he has played more games and has more plate appearances (rbi, runs and hits), and braun's not far behind. way to undermine your whole article with hard stats.

 

still, much as i laugh at this there have been so many occasions on which i have maligned michael hunt in the the urinal-sentinel for hopping the bandwagon in both directions with lovers and haters of both the brewers and the packers. it happens everywhere.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think you're probably overstating your case there. First, how many games where he committed an error did we even lose, and how many of those could you say we directly lost because of the error? It's probably not that many, surely not "lots".

 

I think that it is virtually impossible to take any one play, AB, or pitch -- and say we lost the game because of this one event. That being so stated, Bruan (and the Brewers D as a whole) has cost us about .5 runs per game, at some point it costs us wins.

 

Braun's D is as epically bad as his offense has been good. His D certainly erodes away his offensive production, that said, I think he is still the clear choice for ROY. If his D was league average, it would be a blowout.

[BrewCrewForever]

Ok, so we're supposed to spot Troy Tulowitzki .200 points of OPS and an obvious Coors Field split advantage because he's a good defensive shortstop?

 

Probably not.

Exactly my thoughts Brian. He is no doubt a very good shortstop, but he is no Ryan Braun.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

I lost the guy with the 84-word sentence that comprised all of paragraph five. Honestly, I don't know what he's talking about.

Aren't very long sentences common in the Hebrew language? Maybe I'm getting it mixed up with Greek. If it is the former, then perhaps he is putting in a subtle rip on "Hebrew."

 

In any case, I appreciate how he is using his medium to promote the local boy. If Braun played half of his games in Colorado, he would probably be hitting 30 points higher and have many more homers and RBI.

Yawn...

 

[Team Canada]

I think you're probably overstating your case there. First, how many games where he committed an error did we even lose, and how many of those could you say we directly lost because of the error? It's probably not that many, surely not "lots".

 

I think that it is virtually impossible to take any one play, AB, or pitch -- and say we lost the game because of this one event. That being so stated, Bruan (and the Brewers D as a whole) has cost us about .5 runs per game, at some point it costs us wins.

 

But FTJ, it IS possible to determine when an error definitely *did not* contribute to a loss. If no run was scored that inning, or if the margin of victory was substantially more than the number of runs caused by the error, then it's safe to say that his error did not lead to a loss. Now I want to go pull all the game logs...

[homer]

Not to mention that Braun's offense won several games when no one else on the team was hitting.

 

I"m telling you, WARP is a great stat that combines defense and offense, but it's not available right now. Is that normal?

[Fatter than Joey]

But FTJ, it IS possible to determine when an error definitely *did not* contribute to a loss.

 

I disagree -- I can think of an example....

 

I think it was Philly, and in the 8th inning or so there was an error by Matt Wise, on the opposing pitcher (who was batting). The next batter was retired, and the inning was over -- however that error allowed the 4th batter to hit in the next inning who proceeded to club us like baby seals.

 

Errors lead to higher pitch counts, and get you closer to the other team's good batters.

 

I don't think that there is any question that defense is why our ERA is higher than it should be and we are a .500 team instead of a .540 team.

 

I certainly can understand that an error in some situations is inconsequential, but you could say that about any stats.

 

Of course if you wanted to go through the game logs, and use your judgment to see if any of Braun's errors where "consequential" -- to be thorough you should probably do the same with each of his 2bs/3bs/HRs, as certainly some of his hits had little "consequence"

[endaround]

Not to mention that Braun's offense won several games when no one else on the team was hitting.

 

I"m telling you, WARP is a great stat that combines defense and offense, but it's not available right now. Is that normal?

No it isn't normal, BP's defensive stats aren't updating for some reason so WARP and their defensive metrics are unavailable. It wouldn't be surprising to see Tulo out do Braun in WARP because Braun just is that bad. Now WARP has problems. For example shifts can cause havoc, which I think is why Fielder went from being below average last year to horrendous this year.

 

Jonah Keri will be going over the ROY today on Page 2 on ESPN and he should have the WARPs then. Here's his article from Yesterday for MVP, CY Young, Exec of the Year and Bust of the Year.

Jonah Keri

[Fatter than Joey]

Jonah Keri will be going over the ROY today on Page 2 on ESPN and he should have the WARPs then.

 

Interestingly he doesn't have Prince in his top 3 for MVP (5.9 WARP). I expect the WARP #s for Braun could be as equally unattractive.

[Team Canada]

Okay, here's the results. By my reckoning, Braun's errors have played a critical role in 3 losses (nicely called, Ennder).

 

1. 7/28, lost 7-6, he had an error that led to 2 runs, but he also had 3 RBI

2. 8/5, lost 8-6, 2 runs scored as a result of the error, he had 1 RBI

3. 8/14, lost 12-4, 6 runs scored following his error.

 

You could argue that he was actually a net gain for #1, but you don't know what the replacement 3B would have done offensively.

 

In any case, it's clear that we've won FAR more games with him and his errors than we would with the alternative, like Counsell.

 

[b]Date Score E? Affected? Comment[/b]
25-May 6-8 N N 
26-May 3-6 N N 
27-May 0-3 N N 
28-May 1-2 N N 
29-May 5-4 N N 
30-May 3-9 N N 
31-May 4-3 N N 
1-Jun 8-5 Y N 
2-Jun 2-5 N N 
3-Jun 3-0 N N 
4-Jun 2-7 N N 
5-Jun 7-5 N N 
6-Jun 2-6 N N 
8-Jun 6-9 Y N no runs scored
9-Jun 3-4 N N 
10-Jun 9-6 Y N 
12-Jun 0-4 N N 
13-Jun 3-2 N N 
14-Jun 6-5 Y N 
15-Jun 11-3 Y N 
16-Jun 5-2 N N 
17-Jun 9-10 N N 
18-Jun 5-4 N N 
19-Jun 6-2 N N 
20-Jun 7-5 N N 
22-Jun 1 1-6 N N 
23-Jun 7-1 N N 
24-Jun 3-4 N N 
25-Jun 6-1 N N 
26-Jun 11-5 N N 
27-Jun 6-3 N N 
29-Jun 6-5 N N 
30-Jun 13-4 N N 
1-Jul 1-5 Y N 1 run scored as result of error
2-Jul 10-3 N N 
3-Jul 2-6 Y N 1 run scored as result of error, 1 RBI contributed
4-Jul 3-5 N N 
5-Jul 3-6 N N 
6-Jul 6-2 N N 
7-Jul 4-5 Y N no runs scored
8-Jul 2-7 N N 
13-Jul 6-10 N N 
14-Jul 2-1 N N 
15-Jul 4-3 Y N 
16-Jul 4-3 Y (2) N 
17-Jul 3-2 N N 
18-Jul 2-5 N N 
19-Jul 10-1 N N 
20-Jul 4-8 N N 
21-Jul 0-8 N N 
22-Jul 7-5 N N 
23-Jul 1-2 N N 
24-Jul 5-3 N N 
25-Jul 3-7 N N 
26-Jul 5-6 N N 
27-Jul 12-2 Y N 
28-Jul 6-7 Y Y? 2 runs scored as result, contributed 3 RBI
28-Jul 2-5 Y N no runs scored
29-Jul 5-9 N N 
31-Jul 4-2 Y N 
1-Aug 5-8 N N 
2-Aug 4-12 N N 
3-Aug 2-1 N N 
4-Aug 6-5 N N 
5-Aug 6-8 Y Y 2 runs scored as a result, contributed 1 RBI
6-Aug 2-6 N N 
7-Aug 4-11 N N 
8-Aug 4-19 Y N 
10-Aug 5-4 N N 
11-Aug 7-4 N N 
12-Aug 4-6 N N 
14-Aug 4-12 Y Y 6 runs scored as result
15-Aug 3-8 N N 
16-Aug 0-8 N N 
17-Aug 3-8 Y N no runs scored as result
18-Aug 8-4 N N 
19-Aug 6-7 N N 
20-Aug 9-0 Y N 
21-Aug 7-4 N N 
22-Aug 2-3 N N 
24-Aug 6-11 N N 
25-Aug 2-6 N N 
26-Aug 4-5 N N 
28-Aug 3-5 N N 
29-Aug 6-1 N N 
30-Aug 4-5 N N 
31-Aug 3-2 Y N 
1-Sep 12-3 N N 
2-Sep 7-4 N N 
3-Sep 7-9 N N 
4-Sep 5-3 N N 
5-Sep 14-2 N N 
7-Sep 4-11 N N 
8-Sep 4-3 N N 
9-Sep 10-5 N N 
10-Sep 0-9 N N