Anyone else concerned by this? (Hardy's future in Milwaukee)

[Ennder]

Man, the more I read this thread, the more depressed I get. It seems like we're going to be doomed to having five year windows where we realistically contend for one or two seasons, and then the other three or four years are letting the youngsters mature before they inevitably leave.

Not at all. We do not have a small market salary at all, we are mid range. We are in the same boat or better off than at least 50% of the teams in baseball. We just need to make smart choices instead of throwing money at every player we develop and at marginal free agents. Deals like we gave Suppan are just killers to a team like ours.

[rluzinski]

2009 Chone Projections:

 

Hardy: .278/.343/.463/.806; 4 Runs/150 games

 

Escobar: .270 /.303/.356/.659; -25 runs/150 games

 

So Hardy has a 29 run or about a 3 win advantage over Escobar, offensively.

 

I good rule of thumb is to assume the best and worst defenders are about 20 runs/2 wins from average. Even if we assume Escobar is the best and Hardy is merely, average, Hardy is still 1 win more valuable than Escobar in 2009. In reality, I don't think it's fair to assume a gap larger than 1 win between hardy and Escobar, defensively. That makes Hardy about 2 wins better and $8 mil more valuable. Since Hardy is getting paid only about $4 mil more than Escobar in 2009, he has more net value (expected production - salary).

 

Not telling you guys anything you don't already know. Just trying to put some numbers into the discussion.

[Ennder]

I'll add that my money is on Hardy beating that projections. His 2007 was slowed by the hip injury and his 2008 was slowed by him getting sick and losing 10 pounds right before the season started. He is just hitting his prime and if he can stay healthy all year I will agian be picking him as my breakout player of the year for the team.

 

This is the year that Hardy gets the media attention as he flirts with 30 HR and that attention comes just in time to make him too valuable for us to sign long term. This was the offseason for us to buy out a year or two of FA, next year is too late.

[cwolf2012]

"If [Escobar] is a .360 OBP/.350 SLG player"

 

If Escobar carries a .360 OBP with his defense, he BETTER be playing every day. I'll take that kind of OBP in the 9 hole (when they realize that the pitcher should bat 8th) with stellar defense every day on any team. He'd be worth 4 WAR minimum with that line.

[kramnoj]

he may be average on balls he gets too but his range is way below average jeter is no longer a major league caliber defensive shortstop but he's to big of a baby to move.

 

It doesn't really matter what his range is. It matters how many plays he makes compared to peers at his position. Jeter was basically average last year. Since he was basically average last year, there is no objective way to say that he isn't major league caliber.

[Invader3K]

And a lot of people think that the use of "range" in measuring a player's defense is way overrated.

[joepepsi]

I wonder why I've had two of my posts deleted from this topic in the last two days?

[Tbadder]

This seems to be a long range versus short range argument. It's true the Brewers will never be able to keep all their best players, so intelligent decision making is of prime importance. After reading this thread I've become convinced otherwise. JJ seems to be the guy to lock up, along with Gallardo. Fielder has to go and Hart too, and depending on what Rickie does this year, probably him too (he'll be taking away Escobar's only other viable starting position). That makes Escobar a 2nd baseman or trade bait, and that's dangerous, because his value is so undetermined. If he's as good as billed defensively and he keeps improving offensively at the same rate we could be giving him away. The Crew cannot afford to be wrong about him. And although we currently have a mid-market salary that can't last. A small market can't afford that level of support long term, unless it becomes a tax haven for the rich (this is an ironic, sardonic, joke obviously in Milwaukee, Wisconsin).

 

Soooooo...I guess right now I'd wait. Whoever suggested that Escobar stay two years at AAA is probably on to something. That'll give us time to jettison other players and see what we get in return. Once that return is ascertained then Escobar can be inserted or otherwise. Long term the Crew has so many holes it's ridiculous. We obviously need a catcher, a 1st baseman, a 3rd baseman, a centerfielder, a rightfielder, and probably a 2nd baseman after this year (though I'm still holding out hope). Hardy and Braun and Gallardo really do appear to be the only five year solutions. Now you might say that we'll simply plug in Gamel, Jeffress, Cain etc. but to my mind their status is far more uncertain than Escobar's.

[Invader3K]

Well, it's nice to say "lock up Hardy," but if he is adamant about "testing free agency", it's pretty much all for naught.

[And That]

I wonder why I've had two of my posts deleted from this topic in the last two days?

Posts that only say "I agree" or "great post" are usually deleted. The theory being, if everyone who agreed posted "I agree", threads would become unreadable.

 

Back to the thread, John Dewan just made an interesting point, saying that he believes he has some statistical proof that defense is worth about half as much as offense. If that is true, it gives a little objectivity to the argument for keeping Hardy over Escobar IMO. Even if Escobar's defense is somehow twice as good as Hardy's (which it probably isn't), Hardy far outstrips Escobar in value due to JJ's advantage with the bat.

 

Jettison seems like a loaded word there. I don't think anybody is advocating jettisoning Hardy.

Get rid of, let go, trade, ship off, package, embark, whatever wording you want to use - replacing Hardy with Escobar means Hardy isn't here anymore.

[Invader3K]

I guess I don't get why Weeks can't be the one who gets replaced...would it really be that big of a waste to have Escobar at 2B, even if it's only for a season or two?

 

I'm not advocating rushing Escobar though. The guy has barely played at AAA at all, so it's dangerous to assume he could step in at play well at the MLB level this year.

[joepepsi]

Posts that only say "I agree" or "great post" are usually deleted. The theory being, if everyone who agreed posted "I agree", threads would become unreadable.

Ok. It's a little heavy handed, but ......OK.

 

I guess I don't get why Weeks can't be the one who gets replaced..

I think it gets back to what was posted above about lots of positions to fill and limited payroll. If Rickie stays as he is they'll probably just keep him at 2B, then let him walk when he's eligible. If he really gets good, then it's a problem similar to JJ. Then maybe they trade JJ, keep Weeks and bring up Escobar.

[strawbossisevil]

I think some are forgetting what trading Hardy could bring us.

 

If for example, we fall out of the running early this year, and a team in the hunt for the playoffs needs a SS. We could score quite a bit of minor league talent for Hardy. Probably a deal similar to what the Indians got from us (perhaps even better considering we only got CC for half a year, where as the team getting JJ would get him for a year and a half). This could mean getting a top prospect pitcher + an additional top 10 prospect.

 

So on top of the money saved from going from Hardy to Escobar (which may or may not be able to be used in FA to improve the team - the trouble with FA is that a player has to want to play in Milwaukee, that isn't always the case), we would also add one or two big time prospects.

 

If we fall out early in '09, I could see the '10 season being a quick rebuilding season. Giving Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Jeffress, Cain, Top Prospects from Hardy trade, Top Prospects from Fielder trade. All settled in and getting the experience they need to make another run in '11.

[Invader3K]

Posts that only say "I agree" or "great post" are usually deleted. The theory being, if everyone who agreed posted "I agree", threads would become unreadable.

Ok. It's a little heavy handed, but ......OK.

Not really. I go to lots of message boards, and it gets old scrolling past all the "I agree," and "+1" posts to find the actual content. That's one of the nice things about BF.net...less filler posts to sift through. No offense to you, though.

 

That is a good point about Weeks, though. I think it's safe to say the Brewers will just stick with him at this point and probably let him walk away when his service time is up after next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Back to the thread, John Dewan just made an interesting point, saying that he believes he has some statistical proof that defense is worth about half as much as offense.

 

At least from what I've read (in general), 'preventing runs' correlates better with winning than 'scoring runs'. Is it that good offense is harder to find than good defense... and that makes offense inherently more valuable?

[1992casey]

I'm not sure that anything can be "proven" statistically. There's always at least a slight margin of error. Maybe it's better to say that Dewan feels that he has "solid statistical evidence." http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

To be fair, here is what Dewan actually wrote:

 

"Everyone realizes that defense is important, but it's never been quantified. Now we have the first way to quantify it. It's not necessarily the best way, and there will be more to come on this issue. The 50% figure is more of an indicator than an exact number, but it just jumped out at me and I wanted to share it with you."

[logan82]

That is a good point about Weeks, though. I think it's safe to say the Brewers will just stick with him at this point and probably let him walk away when his service time is up after next year.

We have control of Weeks until the end of the 2011 season at least.

[Invader3K]

OK, I thought I read differently on rotoworld, but I realize their info isn't always 100% accurate anyway.

[joepepsi]

We have control of Weeks until the end of the 2011 season at least.

If he stays a .750-ish, mediocre fielding 2B he's gonna price himself out of a job by then. I am hopeful he'll improve enough to be a bargain through 2011.

 

Too Live Brew wrote:

At least from what I've read (in general), 'preventing runs' correlates better with winning than 'scoring runs'. Is it that good offense is harder to find than good defense... and that makes offense inherently more valuable?

This is why I think there is a greater difference between an average and great hitter than an average and great defender. No matter how good you are on defense you only get so many chances a year to make a great play or save a run. The overwhelming number of plays are routine; something any player can make. With offense a batter has the chance to make a run every game. Every at bat, at least in theory, could be a game winner.

[TheCrew07]

I might be missing something, but why is AAA suddenly a proving ground? The biggest jump in MiLB is A+ to AA, the only good reason for stashing top prospects in AAA is further development, but AAA itself doesn't prove anything about a given player's readiness. Without researching it off the top of my head and thinking about the top prospects in the game I don't recall any spending 1 full year in AAA, let alone 2. I know players I've advocated acquiring like Neimann have spent 2 years in AAA, but he's not my definition of a top prospect so we're on some shakey ground here, what I consider a top prospect might different from someone else.

 

The way I see it the team can have 4-5 contracts that average 10 mil per any any one time, then there must be a sliding scale of pay for the other 20-21 players on the active roster, which means the more Braunesque deals for young talent the better. I'd like our pitchers to get deals similar to what TB did with James Shields, and I'd like to see 2 or 3 key position players locked up as well.

 

The problem that I focus on is getting the best possible talent for that 90 mil. I'm not talking about pure athletic ability in this case, I'm talking about results because I think a guy like Taylor Green will be more productive than Weeks has been thus far. I think the Brewers would be wise to prioritize their spending based on need. From my point of view Hardy is a luxury because there are 2 good prospects in the system right behind him, Fielder isn't a luxury, the system lacks a power prospect of his caliber, but there's a long list of reasons why he isn't a good fit. All prospects have risk, some greater risk than others, but a team like Milwaukee isn't going to be able to rely on proven on talent at every position and remain competitive. Braun made sense to lockup, Yo and Parra will make sense, Hart maybe, Hardy doesn't because by the time he would leave as FA the team will know exactly what they have in Escobar and Brewer. If they know sooner, then they should move Hardy sooner... I'll always take prospects over draft picks, always. Draft picks do not excite me at all, never have, I guess that's obvious but I'd rather have a known quanity than a draft pick who's value is somewhat nebulous. I believe it makes sense to sign players for security when the talent is special or they aren't many options in the pipeline for that position. A case can be made that Hardy's talent is special, but again if he was going to sign an extension would have happened already, it truly appears that we missed our window with him. The team offered Braun, Fielder, and Hart already, nothing was offered to JJ, Melvin has made it clear that an extension hasn't even been discussed with him and Hardy's agent has brought up the possibility with the team, it's simply not going to happen.

 

Another big part of that talent for 90 mil is pitching, I'd rather the team focus on high talent pre FA pitching like the Rays have done. The new TB front office (well relatively speaking) has done a fantastic job assembling that rotation, and 2 of their better pitchers were acquired in trades. They had Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Jackson, and Sonnanstine in '08 and in '09 they'll have Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Sonnanstine, and Price. The worst pitcher on their staff was/is essentially Dave Bush, I would love for us to be in that position. We spend so much time debating runs created around that we end up ignoring runs prevented which is equally valuable. I would rather upgrade the talent level of the rotation first and use our prospect depth to plug position holes then hold the status quo dumping multiple prospects for rentals and signing averagish pitchers to fill holes in the rotation. I honestly believe post season baseball is about pitching and defense, and while the Brewers rated out well defensively as a team last year, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Take Braun for example, while he didn't have an error on the books, how many balls did he misplay both ways letting balls get through him or drop in front of him? Sometimes he wasn't aggressive enough, sometimes he was overly aggressive, he never seemed to put it all together for an extended stretch. He's servicable in LF, but he's not a great defender yet, and probably not as good as his metric(whichever you choose) says he is. I hope people understand what I'm getting at... the team made some horrible defensive plays that in reality cost them the series with Philly while Philly played spotless defense. Good teams will make you pay for your mistakes, it's very difficult to give away outs and runs and win playoff games. The way the team is built offensively, I think they'd be better off working on a consistent starting rotation than trying to plug offensive holes, because many of our prospects on the way are similar hitters to what we already have, not many are going to take BBs as much as we'd like. With better pitching it's easier to survive the ups and downs in the offense from game to game... it just common sense from my point of view. If we don't make trades for pre arby pitching then we are pretty much going to be stuck with what we have hoping that 3 or 4 of the young pitchers pan out, and pitchers get hurt so often it's hard to count on any particular one, especially given how I feel about the Brewers' training staff.

 

Hardy isn't moving positions because he doesn't have to and the organization isn't going to move Escobar because they don't want to, it really is that simple and everywhere I look(Bf.net, BCB, JS Online) I keep seeing people suggesting these position switches when Melvin, Hardy, Escobar, and Ash have all made it clear in print, video, and audio interviews that position switches are highly unlikely unless a major injury occurs. If signing Hardy isn't going to happen, and it appears highly unlikely at this point that it will, then the discussion should become how to get the most possible value from him. Do we ride him out to FA or does the team try to move him to plug a hole somewhere else? What's the most valuable solution? That's where the debate should be, not Escobar vs Hardy, that's not the issue and it really hasn't ever been the issue. Hardy is moving on the same way Fielder is going to move on, it's not 15 years of losing mentality, it's realistism given the financial demands the players will make in FA. To keep our best talent we must lock them up early, it didn't happen, so it's time to shift focus. Peole can throw around PECOTA, CHONE, MLEs, whatever else they want projection wise, it's all irrelevant because the discussion isn't either/or in a player sense, it's not Hardy vs Escobar or Fielder vs Nelson/Gamel, it's draft pick compensation vs players/prospects. Again just to make my point clear the discussion really is Draft Picks vs Players/Prospect because neither player will be signed as a FA. That's why posters like myself talk about Escobar plus whatever... because losing Hardy is inevitable, the question we're working on is what is the best "+"? Maybe for a guy like X the question becomes Brewer plus whatever? The point it doesn't necessarily matter whom the replacement player in the dicussion is, getting the best value in return for losing a Hardy or Fielder is the crux of the matter.

[endaround]

"Without researching it off the top of my head and thinking about the top prospects in the game I don't recall any spending 1 full year in AAA, let alone 2." Guy by the name of Prince Fielder spent 103 games in AAA. Adam Jones just spent his second year in AAA. Chipper Jones spent a year in AAA

[joepepsi]

Morneau, Cuddyer, and Span all had around 600 plate appearances in AAA. One thing the Twins do, almost to a fault, they keep their players in the minors longer than most to minimize growing pains at the major league level. The Brewers, or any budget conscious team, would be wise to adopt that policy as long as there is a competent player on the major league team. The Brewers are in the position now that they don't have to start the arbitration clock early as they did with Hardy, Weeks, Fielder.

[TheCrew07]

Fielder was and up and down that season the writing was on the wall for O, Chipper Jones flew the minors and was behind Pendleton when he was in AAA, I think in 93 (was a huge Braves fan then), Adam Jones former SS now CF Adam Jones? He was once a nice prospect in Seattle's system but his star has faded somewhat.

 

I have no problem with Escobar getting time in AAA but the point is that AAA isn't some grand step up... if players perform at AA they'll perform at AAA in general. Pulling 3 examples, and Adam Jones is the only top prospect that spent 2 seasons in AAA at that, when I clearly stated I was working off the top of my head isn't all that impressive. I could probably name 50 prospects that didn't spend a full season without looking it up... If a prospect is blocked such as Escobar with Hardy or Fielder with Overbay it's all good, the point of that paragraph was that AAA doesn't prove anything more than AA. You missed the entire point of the post as usual.

 

Instead of being snarky, offer a solution for once, instead of always pointing out what's wrong with someone else's opinion but never offering your own...

[endaround]

I've offered my opinion plenty including the belief that Escobar's season in AA was a lot like Iribarren's 2007 in AA and I expect Escobar's AAA in 2009 to be a lot like Iribarren's AAA season of 2008